I went 11-5 against the spread during the second week of the 2025 NFL season.

I could have easily went 13-3 had I not pivoted so early on two of my picks. I usually hold steady, barring injuries, with my own preseason rankings. I tend to view a season in four parts, so I alter my rankings after a team’s fourth game.

We have a huge game on Monday Night Football. The Lions and Ravens meet, which has a shot to be a Super Bowl preview.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -13

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+7.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -7.5

The Green Bay Packers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 27-18 home win over the Commanders, which covered the -3 spread. QB Jordan Love continues to air it out with success, but he did lose WR Jayden Reed (broken collarbone) for a few months. TE Tucker Kraft has become a big player in this year’s passing attack. On defense, they put a stranglehold on the Commanders ground game.

The Cleveland Browns (0-2, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-17 road loss to the Ravens, which failed against the +13.5 spread. The Browns defense didn’t break through the first three quarters, as they were only down ten at that points, but the fourth was a disaster. QB Joe Flacco wasn’t effective, but we did see some fun glimpses of rookie RB Quinshon Judkins in his debut. On defense, the Browns can be proud of only allowing 23 rushing yards to RB Derrick Henry.

After his poor performance, the Browns should have called it on the Joe Flacco Experience. They plan to start him going forward, but the Packers defense will make the screams of their fans grow even louder. The Packers offense is humming right now, so I’m taking Green Bay to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Los Angeles Rams (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 33-19 road win over the Titans, which covered the -5.5 point spread. It wasn’t pretty, but the Rams got the win and the cover. They needed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to extend their first decent lead of the game. QB Mathew Stafford has been spamming the ball to WR Davante Adams, who is coming back to life after a couple years of mediocrity. On defense, they were able to sack Titans rookie QB Cam Ward five times.

The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 road win over the Chiefs, which covered the -1 point spread. These teams clearly spent all offseason watching the Super Bowl gamefilm. Every yard was a battle to get, and at the end of the day, a few failed opportunities was the reason for the outright loss. The Eagles running game was the offensive focus, and RB Saquon Barkley showed up to secure the win. On defense, a goal-line interception, after Chiefs TE Travis Kelce bobbled a pass, was the play of the game.

I have been impressed with the Rams thus far, but they face better competition this week. Stafford will need his offensive line to step up, but I expect some hurried attempts that could lead into turnovers. The Eagles young cornerbacks are up to the task of stopping two outstanding veteran wideouts, so I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) – My pick is New York Jets +7

The New York Jets (0-2, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-10 home loss to the Bills, which wasn’t close to the +6 spread. The Jets lost QB Justin Fields (concussion) in the middle of the loss, but backup Tyrod Taylor couldn’t do much with the game already out of hand. It appears that Taylor will be starting this weekend’s game against Tampa Bay.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-19 road win over the Texans, which was also a win against the +2.5 spread. The Bucs passing offense hasn’t started where they left off last year. They are awaiting WR Chris Godwin’s return from injury and rookie Emeka Egbuka has a very high ceiling. They are also getting RB Bucky Irving involved more in the game, as he is even getting a half-dozen targets in the passing game.

This betting line is probably tight with the most probable outcome. The Jets will be a more efficient team with Taylor at quarterback, but the big play odds take a hit. The Bucs do come into this game with some injuries. Their injury report had some surprising names on it so far this week. The Bucs may win this game outright, but I’m taking the points.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+5.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -5.5

The Atlanta Falcons (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 22-6 road win over the Vikings, which was a win against the +3.5 point spread. It wasn’t a great outing for QB Michael Penix Jr., but his backfield had a banner game. It wasn’t a surprising outcome, as the Vikings pass defense appears to be a top-ten squad. On defense, They took care of business, regardless of the injuries that changed up the Vikings gameplan.

The Carolina Panthers (0-2, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-22 road loss to the Cardinals, but was a win against the +7.5 point spread. The Panthers got into the endzone twice in the fourth quarter to make the score much more palatable. QB Bryce Young wasn’t super efficient, but he did surpass 300 yards through the air. The Panthers bailed on the running game in the second-half, and it nearly paid dividends. 

As much as these quarterbacks will be the headlines going into this game, their backfields will play the largest roles in who will win against the spread. I love how the Falcons backs played last week, and Penix will have a lot less pressure on him to make a big play. This could be a higher-scoring affair, but I’ll take the Falcons to cover on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-3) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-0. 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-27 home win over the Jaguars, and covered the -3.5 point spread. The Bengals overcame a devastating injury to starting QB Joe Burrow (turf toe) to make a come-from-behind win. Burrow will miss at least three months, which would put a possible return in the final weeks of the regular season. Backup QB Jake Browning has filled in for Burrow before, and he’s a solid backup, but his three picks nearly lost them the game.

The Minnesota Vikings (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 22-6 home loss to the Falcons, and failed to cover the -3.5 spread. The Vikings suffered two injuries that could be season-altering. QB J.J. McCarthy (ankle) and RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) will be missing some time. McCarthy will miss at least one game, and Jones was placed on injured-reserve, so he will be out at least a month. The Vikings will be starting QB Carson Wentz and RB Jordan Mason until they are healthy.

Injuries hit these two teams hard at the same time. Browning did have some rough patches last week, but I can’t put a penny on Carson Wentz in the year of the Lord, 2025. The Bengals backfield will need to outperform expectations, but due to Wentz, I’m taking the points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders (-3.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders -3.5 (this pick was made before Daniels was ruled out)

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-9 home loss to the Chargers, which was a loss against the +3.5 spread. QB Geno Smith had a very bad outing. He was barely above the Mendoza line on completion percentage and he threw three interceptions. Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty wasn’t much help, and it’s looking more like he needs to share touches in the backfield while he catches up to the game.

The Washington Commanders (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-18 road loss to the Packers, which was a loss against the +3 spread. Teams are game-planning for QB Jayden Daniels, and his numbers took a hit for back-to-back weeks to start his sophomore season. HIs backfield couldn’t do anything on Sunday, so it led to some forced throws.

The Raiders just played like butt last week. Smith was awful and Jeanty had fans questioning if he was the same guy who was at Boise State last year. The Commanders need a big game from Daniels, and I think he will have his best game of the year thus far. I’m taking the Commanders to cover at home.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5

The Houston Texans (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 20-19 home loss to the Buccaneers, and failed to cover against the -2.5 spread. QB C.J. Stroud’s sophomore slump has bled into his third year. He needs a consistent WR2, and a young weapon in the backfield, preferably one with good-to-great hands. I don’t like his current weapons. He’s forcing too many throws to WR Nico Collins, and RB Nick Chubb may fall apart if he gets 20+ touches in a game.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-27 road loss to the Bengals, and lost against the +3.5 point spread. I feel like a broken record, but I’m still waiting for QB Trevor Lawrence to be the most valuable player on his team. If they win, it’s always because the defense made big plays or his backfield pops off. He really needed his defense to make a play on the Bengals final drive.

I’m written a lot about the cons of both of these teams, and it’s no secret that I don’t like either one right now. The Jaguars did show signs of life last week, but Lawrence made some poor decisions. I think the Jags defense will step up in this one and cover at home against a division foe.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (+1) – My pick is New England Patriots +1

The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-17 home loss to the Seahawks, and failed against the -4 spread. QB Aaron Rodgers didn’t play as well as he did in his revenge game versus the Jet. The Seahawks double-teamed WR D.K. Metcalf and he only caught three balls for 20 yards. The only thing that worked for the Steelers were the short-passing game. On defense, the Steelers defense collapsed late, especially after the kickoff boner that led to a Seahawks touchdown.

The New England Patriots (1-1,1-1 ATS) are coming off a 33-27 road win over the Patriots, and covered the +2.5 spread as the underdog, QB Drake Maye was efficient on the day, but he needed a little more help from his backfield. A kickoff return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter put them ahead, and they never looked back.

This is another game between teams that I’m down on this year. I do like the Patriots just a little more, due to their stars on defense. If they can take away Metcalf, like the Seahawks did, I think Maye will put up enough points to possibly win this one outright, so I’m taking the point.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+4) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -4

The Indianapolis Colts (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 29-28 home win over the Broncos, which was a win against the +1 spread. The Colts overachieved again and got the outright win as the spread underdog. RB Jonathan Taylor looks like his younger self with yards after contact and with his increased snap count. I know QB Daniel Jones is killing it right now, but Taylor is the team MVP right now. On defense, they made some plays late in the game to pull off the upset win.

The Tennessee Titans (0-2, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 33-19 home loss to the Rams, and also failed against the +5.5 spread. Rookie QB Cam Ward had a better second outing, but his defense collapsed in the fourth quarter. Also, RB Tony Pollard was able to extend drives with 92 rushing yards.

The Titans are a bad team, but they will pull off a few outright wins this year. My guess is that they will all come against AFC South foes, just because it’s arguably the worst division, and many games will be near-coin-flip outcomes. I don’t think the Titans are on the way to an outright win, and even a win against the spread is unlikely. The Colts are playing so well, and I think they are still a tad underrated. I’m taking the Colts to cover on the road.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints +7.5

The New Orleans Saints (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 26-21 home loss to the Niners, and was also a loss against the +3 point spread. I’m sure a Spencer Rattler vs Mac Jones battle wasn’t exciting on paper, but it was a solid game to watch. Both quarterbacks had very good outings, and the Saints defense even limited the Niners running game. It was a smart decision for the Saints to get the ball in the hands of RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave more.

The Seattle Seahawks (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-17 road win over the Steelers, which was also a win against the +4 spread. QB Sam Darnold had a better game in his second outing, and it’s clear WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is comfortable being WR1 there. It was nice to see Darnold getting the ball in the hands of WR Cooper Kupp more as well. Seattle’s running game has been so inconsistent, but when they deliver, they are great betting teams.

I think the Seahawks will handle business, and win outright at home, that extra half-point is scary. Darnold was able to lean on a stout defense last year, when he was the in Minnesota, but that’s not there in Seattle. His inconsistency will cause for some headaches. That being said, New Orleans is viewed as one of the worst teams in the league. I like some of the decisions Rattler made last year. Getting the ball to their best playmakers was a great start. I’m taking the points in this game.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -3

The Denver Broncos (1-1, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 29-28 road loss, and loss against the -1 spread. Both offenses were humming in the first-half, but adjustments were made, with only one offensive touchdown scored in the entire last half. QB Bo Nix didn’t make too many mistakes, but this was a true coin-flip game. The Colts needed a field goal as time expired to get the one-point victory.

The Los Angeles Chargers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 20-9 road win over the Raiders, which covered the -3.5 spread. It was a banner day for every facet of their game. None of their offensive studs had gaudy numbers, as their defense stepped up and forced three interceptions. They had solid field position the entire game. I can’t say they were perfect, as too many drives ended with a field goal or punt. The Chargers should have hung 40+ points on them, but the urgency wasn’t there at times in the second-half.

I love the Chargers right now, and I think they will stay perfect through three games. Their offense is among the best in the league, and their defense has made strides early this year. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals +2.5

The Arizona Cardinals (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-22 home win over the Panthers, but failed to cover the -7.5 spread. The Cardinals were up 27-3 late in the third quarter, and nearly got caught. They didn’t have a great offensive output, as the running game wasn’t efficient. The Cardinals have a lot of talent, but their inconsistency will be annoying for bettors this year.

The San Francisco 49ers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 26-21 home win over the Saints, which also covered the -3 spread. QB Mac Jones started in placed of injured Brock Purdy, and the switch was seamless. Jones was smart with the ball, and they needed his arm to get the win, outright and against the spread. On defense, I was a little worried that Saints QB Spencer Rattler had interception-free game.

The Niners got some good news today, as QB Brock Purdy will return to practice, and there’s a chance he could play this weekend. I don’t think there is a huge drop-off in talent between Purdy and his backup Jones. I think it’s almost a non-factor in my pick against the spread. The Cardinals swept their meetings last year, and I could see this one being very close. I am going out on a limb here, and will take the points in this game.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+1) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys -1

The Dallas Cowboys (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 40-37 home overtime win over the Giants, which failed to cover the -5.5 spread. It was a nice comeback performance from WR CeeDee Lamb, who was a drop machine in their opener. Also, RB Javonte Williams continues to show that he’s a great fit for this offense. On defense, it could be a long season if they are giving up this many points to a below-average Giants team. 

The Chicago Bears (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 52-21 road loss to the Lions, which wasn’t even close to the +6.5 spread. The Bears defense didn’t have any answer for the Lions passing game. If the Bears get down by double-digits, it’s just going to be hard for QB Caleb Williams to make a successful comeback. The Bears have weapons on offense, but the consistency isn’t there. On defense, it’s hard to say anything positive about that side of the ball. The Lions offense is among the best in the league, so they will need to lick their wounds, and show up the next week.

I’m confused how close this betting line is, as I believe the Cowboys should be favored by at least a field goal. The Cowboys offense has the ability to put up points in a hurry, and I don’t think the Bears has the defense to stop too many drives. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants (+6) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -6

The Kansas City Chiefs (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home loss to the Eagles, and also failed against the +1 spread. I assumed the game would be a coin-flip, and just a few key plays went in the Eagles favor, and were key in the game. I can’t imagine the level of crap TE Travis Kelce got for his goal-line drop online. The Chiefs only had one play that went for more than 23 yards. They needed to get WR Hollywood Brown more involved down the field.

The New York Giants (0-2, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 40-37 road overtime loss to the Cowboys, which was a win against the -5.5 spread. QB Russell Wilson rebounded from a rough debut by throwing for 450 yards and three touchdowns. He realized WR Malik Nabers is really good, so he targeted him 13 times for 167 yards and two touchdowns. I am curious to see if he can continue getting the ball to Nabers so frequent against a good defense.

Since around this time last season, the Chiefs have been a horrible betting team. They are a ‘public team’, so many of their betting lines will be skewed heavily towards them. A ton of money gets placed on them, but that’s not the issue. The Chiefs play to win games, so you see them playing it safe on many drives in the second-half. They have been perfectly fine winning by a field goal, as long as they rack up the win. That being said, they have a bad taste in their mouths after starting 0-2. I expect a fire will be lit under them, and they will light up the Giants on Sunday night. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on the road.

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-5) – My pick is Detroit Lions +5

The Detroit Lions (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 52-21 home win over the Bears, which easily covered the -6.5 point spread. QB Jared Goff had an excellent performance in the win, with five touchdowns and 334 passing yards. He wasn’t focusing on the short game, as he was hitting home runs with passes to wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. The Lions were able to run the ball well, so it opened up the deep ball. I think the Lions might be in the top-three in the entire league.

The Baltimore Ravens (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-17 home win over the Browns, which covered the -13.5 point spread. QB Lamar Jackson was the star of the offense in this one. He scored all four of their offensive touchdowns. The new wide receiver duo of Zay Flowers and DeAndre Hopkins is working out well. On defense, they will be difficult to pass against, again this year.

There is a shot this game could be a Super Bowl preview. I believe the Lions are right there among the best in the NFC and the Ravens are right there at the same level in the AFC. Both failed in their openers against the other top team in the conference. I do worry a little about Goff’s ability to avoid Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton. I think he’s the best in the league, and could make some plays to skew this game in the other direction. I think this will be tight one, so I have to take the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 18-13-1

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob