I went 7-6 against the spread in Week 12.

I’ve historically been outstanding on Thanksgiving. I’m always scared of jinxing myself by pointing this out every year. It’s worked out so far, so if I miss, it’s my fault.

Due to injuries, there are only two solid games on Thanksgiving. I would call the Giants/Cowboys game a complete skip for me. I just have no desire to watch Tommy Cutlets vs Cooper freaking Rush duke it out while I digest food.

Can Jalen Hurts outduel Lamar Jackson this weekend?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-10) – My pick is Detroit Lions -10

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys -3.5

The New York Giants (2-9, 2-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-7 home loss to the Bucs, which was a loss against the +6 spread. The Giants didn’t cure their troubles by cutting QB Daniel Jones. New quarterback Tommy DeVito was largely ineffective. The Giants defense couldn’t stop drives on Sunday.

The Dallas Cowboys (4-7, 3-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-26 road win over the Commanders, which was a win against the +11 point spread. It was The last few minutes of this game was wild. There were five scores in the final 3:02 of the game. It took a few games for QB Cooper Rush to get up to speed, but he’s playing well.

I want nothing to do with the Giants right now. It’s clear that the coaching staff are lame ducks and they are playing for draft picks. The Cowboys are the better overall team and I’m taking them to cover at home on Thanksgiving afternoon.

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins +3

The Miami Dolphins (5-6, 5-6 ATS) are coming off a 34-15 home win over the Patriots, which covered the -7.5 betting line. The Dolphins passing game is back up to speed and they’re making a run towards a potential playoff spot. Even though WR Tyreek Hill is slowdown by a wrist injury, other guys are stepping up.

The Green Bay Packers (8-3, 5-6 ATS) are coming off a 38-10 home win over the 49ers, which covered the -6 spread. The Niners were without QB Brock Purdy and the offense was stagnant without him. The win isn’t as impressive as one would believe. Although, RB Josh Jacobs had a prolific outing.

I expect this game will be the best overall game of Thanksgiving. I think the Dolphins will continue their run and possibly win outright, so give me the points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -13

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-9, 4-7 ATS) are coming off a 29-19 home loss against the Broncos, which was a loss against the +5 spread. I found the outcome rather surprising since the Broncos have been solid of late and the Raiders haven’t been competitive. The Raiders also saw QB Gardner Minshew (broken collarbone) season end in the loss.

The Kansas City Chiefs (10-1, 5-6 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 road win over the Panthers, which wasn’t close to the -11 point spread. The Chiefs started the season as a great betting team, but they have now lost five-straight against the spread. They clearly played down to the Panthers last week.

The Chiefs recent issues against the spread should end on Friday. The Raiders are currently unsure if QB Aidan O’Connell (thumb) will be healed up by then. It looks like third-string QB Desmond Ridder is the more likely quarterback for Las Vegas. I haven’t liked the Raiders offense with Ridder under center. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover this bloated spread.

Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (+1) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -1

The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4, 7-4 ATS) are coming off a 30-23 home loss to the Ravens, which was a loss against the +3 line. The Chargers had issues stopping Ravens RB Derrick Henry. The Chargers couldn’t make big plays in the passing game in the second-half to keep up with the Ravens.

The Atlanta Falcons (6-5, 5-6 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost at Denver 38-6. The Falcons have fallen off hard since their early season successes. They haven’t played well all month. RB Bijan Robinson is even struggling (he only gained 35 yards against the Broncos). They need QB Kirk Cousins to carry them if they hope to earn a playoff spot.

I don’t like the trajectory of the Falcons right now. The Chargers should be able to rebound after losing to a good Ravens team. I don’t think the Falcons are playoff-bound anymore. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets (+1) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -1

The Seattle Seahawks (6-5, 4-6–1 ATS) are coming off a 16-6 home win over the Cardinals, which was a win against the +1 spread. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is becoming a problem for opposing teams. The Seahawks have three legit receivers that will make QB Geno Smith’s life much easier.

The New York Jets (3-8, 3-8 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost at home to Indianapolis 28-27. After the Giants released QB Daniel Jones, there were rumblings that the Jets could do the same with QB Aaron Rodgers. I don’t see that happening, but the odds of Rodgers coming back next season doesn’t look good.

The Jets have solid talent in their secondary, but they will have issues against Seattle. I also like Seattle’s recent play on defense, I’m taking the Seahawks to cover on the road.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (+2.5) – My pick is New England Patriots +2.5

The Indianapolis Colts (5-7, 8-4 ATS) are coming off a 24-6 home loss to the Lions, which was a loss against the +7 spread. After a solid return to starter, QB Anthony Richardson fell back down to Earth against the Lions. On the bright side, their defense kept the Lions from putting up ridiculous numbers on the scoreboard.

The New England Patriots (3-9, 4-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-15 road loss to the Dolphins, which was a loss against the +7.5 line. The Patriots have lost back-to-back games against good passing teams. They have had trouble this year against the pass (22nd in league). They’ve been prone to the big play.

The Patriots shouldn’t have the same stress on defense this week. Richardson doesn’t have elite passing skills, but his raw skills could cause some issues. I still think the game will be close, so I’m taking the points.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals +3.5

The Arizona Cardinals (6-5, 7-4 ATS) are coming off a 16-6 road loss to the Seahawks, which was a loss against the -1 spread. The Cardinals defense have been pretty darn good of late. Their offense ran into an improved Seattle defense, so it was a tough loss. It was their first outright loss since mid-October.

The Minnesota Vikings (9-2, 7-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 road win against the Bears, which was a push against the betting line. QB Sam Darnold had a solid outing in the win. He’s been the weakest link over the past month. His defense sold in the fourth quarter, but still luckily got the outright win.

I like the trajectory of the Cardinals right now. I think their defense turned things around and their offense will come along. I wouldn’t be on an moneyline win for Arizona, but I’m taking the points in this game.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) – My pick is Houston Texans -4

The Houston Texans (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 32-27 home loss to the Titans, which failed to cover the -8 spread. Some have been saying that QB C.J. Stroud is in the middle of a sophomore slump. I agree with that statement, but I also believe last year’s Texans overachieved. I expected some regression this year, especially after losing WR Nico Collins for a stretch of time.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9, 6-5 ATS) are coming off a bye, and in their previous game, lost to Detroit 52-6. The Jaguars have struggled without QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). He’s currently limited in practice, but hopes to play this weekend. I would assume that he will be a shell of himself, so who knows how much of an improvement he will be over backup QB Mac Jones.

After a tough stretch of games, I expect the Texans to rebound and cover against the Jaguars. Jacksonville are arguably the worst team in the league without Lawrence under center. The Jaguars should just have Lawrence undergo surgery and play for draft position.

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (-5.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders -5.5

The Tennessee Titans (3-8, 2-9 ATS) are coming off a 32-27 road win over the Texans, which was a win against the +8 spread. It was a surprising win and the Titans needed an improbably last few minutes to get it. The Titans have been able to reignite RB Tony Pollard, which is surprising. Their running game looked like it was dead for most of the season.

The Washington Commanders (7-5, 7-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-26 home loss to the Cowboys, which failed to cover the -11 betting line. The game was largely ho-hum through the first three quarters. It was as active as Madden on Easy Mode in the fourth quarter. The Cowboys had a lot of balls land in their favor down the stretch, especially the 99-yard fumble recovery for example.

The Commanders haven’t been a good betting team since early this month. Washington has failed to cover three-straight games. I think we are about to see a tide shift soon. I expect the Commanders will cover at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, 8-3 ATS) are coming off a surprising 24-19 road loss to the Browns, which failed to cover the -3.5 spread. It was an unfortunate loss, but it was in rather poor weather. You can’t put too much weight in the overall outcome. They’ve been playing well and I chalk this up as a hiccup.

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-7, 6-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost at Chargers 34-27. The Bengals needed a week off the regroup after back-to-back heartbreaking late losses. I’ve been saying this for a number of weeks, but the Bengals are the best “insert wins & losses here” team. They’ve hard a number of close 50/50 losses this year. They could easily be as good as 9-2 right now.

I think this game will be close, but the Steelers have been winning close games all year. I expect a fun game that will go down to the final minutes. I’m taking the points in this game.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (+2.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints +2.5

The Los Angeles Rams (5-6, 4-7 ATS) are coming off a 37-20 home loss to the Eagles, which was a loss against the +3 spread. The Rams have been a much better team since they got wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua…but those guys can’t stop opposing running backs. That’s their biggest issue right now as RB Saquon Barkley destroyed them last week. 

The New Orleans Saints (4-7, 5-6 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat Cleveland 35-14. The Saints are making strides to turn the season around with two-straight wins, but the season is long gone. They are trying a lot of interesting things on offense, which is great to see. They’ve been using Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill in different ways. It keeps defenses on their heels. I think this could be key in the coming weeks.

On paper, the Rams should easily cover against the Saints, but he game is not played on paper. I think the Rams will have trouble stopping Hill and RB Alvin Kamara. I could see the Saints upset the Rams at home, so I’m taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+5.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6, 7-4 ATS) are coming off a 30-7 road win over the Giants, which covered the -6 betting line. The Bucs ran up the score on the Giants, a team that could soon be in transition. The Bucs have been running the ball better and it’s giving QB Baker Mayfield a little less of a burden. 

The Carolina Panthers (3-8, 4-7 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 home loss to the Chiefs, which was a win against the +11 spread. The Panthers are having their best stretch of the season, but they are still a flawed team. They’ve won against the spread in three-straight game and are 2-1 outright in those contests. QB Bryce Young is playing with more confidence, which is good to see.

This game will largely rest on the shoulders of each quarterback. I think that’s where the edge dramatically benefits the Bucs. I expect Mayfield will be able to air it out against the Panthers secondary. I’m taking Tampa Bay to cover on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-3) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles +3

The Philadelphia Eagles (9-2, 7-4 ATS) are coming off a 37-20 road win against the Rams, which covered the -3 spread. The Eagles are playing their best football right now. RB Saquon Barkley is throwing his name in the MVP race. If you take him off the Eagles, they wouldn’t be a playoff team.

The Baltimore Ravens (8-4, 6-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-23 road win against the Chargers, which covered the -3 betting line. The Ravens have been a great closing team this year. I’ve mentioned the handful of teams that have been suffering late-second losses this year, but the Ravens are the team that has been winning most of those games. The addition of RB Derrick Henry has really given this team an extra dimension.

This will be the best game of the weekend. They have similar builds and talents at key positions. I like Eagles QB Jalen Hurts throwing ability over Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. I think that could factor in the decision. I’m taking the points in this game.

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-7) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -7

The San Francisco 49ers (5-6, 4-7 ATS) are coming off a 38-10 road loss to the Packers, which wasn’t close to the +6 spread. Niners QB Brock Purdy (shoulder) couldn’t play last week and backup QB Brandon Allen was ineffective. Purdy’s injury happened during a talent uptick on their schedule. San Francisco  could see their playoff chances take a nosedive.

The Buffalo Bills (9-2, 7-4 ATS) are coming off a bye, and in their previous game, beat Kansas City 30-21. I was surprised by the outright win against the Chiefs. It was a sloppy game after halftime, but the Bills made some plays in the fourth to seal the win. The Bills pass defense has improved since the start of the year.

There’s one big unknown coming into this game. Purdy is very limited in practice and they haven’t announced if he will suit up against the Bills. I don’t like Allen’s chances against the Bills pass defense. I’m taking Buffalo to cover at home.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-5.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos -5.5

The Cleveland Browns (3-8, 4-7 ATS) are coming off a 27-19 home loss to the Steelers, which was a win against the +3.5 spread. It was a sloppy game with all the snow. QB Jameis Winston made some smart plays in the win. It’s hard to glean much from this game since it was played in bad weather. They’ve been a decent home team since QB Deshaun Watson went down with an injury.

The Denver Broncos (7-5, 9-3 ATS) are coming off a 29-19 road win over the Raiders, which covered the -5 betting line. The Broncos have been able take care of business against below average teams this year. They’ve only struggled against the Ravens and Chargers since the earliest weeks of the season. QB Bo Nix continues to improve every month.

I’m expecting a letdown game for the Browns. I don’t like Winston against the Broncos secondary. There will be more than one ball that will head the other way for him. I’m taking the Broncos to cover at home on Monday Night Football.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 97-77-5

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob