I went 10-5 against the spread in Week 7.

I had an outstanding Sunday, but finished 1-2 in the Sunday and Monday night primetime games. Any week when you have double-digit wins against the spread, is a positive week.

We have a rare midseason schedule with no bye weeks. We also have a handful of double-digit point spreads, which have been extremely rare so far this year. We will be seeing more going forward.

We are seeing injury issues wreaking havoc right now. We saw Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Cleveland lose important players to major injuries that will keep them out for the rest of the season.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 8 of the 2024 NFL season.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (+3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -3

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia +2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (4-2, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 28-3 road win over the Giants, which easily covered the -3 point spread. The Eagles rode on the back of RB Saquon Barkley, who had revenge on his mind, He averaged over ten yards per carry, and the Eagles, as a team, had a total of 269 yards on the ground. The Eagles defense had their best game of the year.

The Cincinnati Bengals (3-4, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 21-14 road win over the Browns, which covered the -5.5 spread as the favorite. I would have liked to have seen them run up the score a little more in the second-half. I realize the Browns defense is a solid unit, but Browns backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson was awful in relief, and third-string QB Jameis WInston wasn’t much better. A win is a win, but I was still slightly disappointed in the Bengals overall performance.

The Eagles showed up against the Giants, but are they in line for a letdown or have they turned the corner? I think the Eagles found out that they can lean on their running game and compete against any team. I don’t see Hurts needing to throw more than 25 attempts per game, which will limit turnovers. I don’t like the Bengals in close games, and I think this one will be tight. I’m taking the points in this one.

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (-3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -3

The Arizona Cardinals (3-4, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 17-15 home win over the Chargers, which covered the +1 spread as the underdog. The Cardinals defense were able to stop the Chargers good running game. They still allowed Chargers QB Justin Herbert to throw for over 300 yards, but the Chargers never got into the end zone. The Cardinals only allowed five field goals, so the Cardinals defense continues to bend, but they have won a couple close games recently. This strategy won’t win most games, but things worked out last week.

The Miami Dolphins (2-4, 1-5 ATS) are coming off a 16-10 road loss to the Colts, which was a field goal shy of the +3 betting line as the underdog. It was a rather ugly game from both teams on Sunday. The Dolphins passing game is awful without QB Tua Tagovailoa (who looks like he could be back this week), but their running game did show signs of life early on in this game. 

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is back at practice and will be a massive upgrade if he suits up on Sunday. I’m going to assume he starts this game, and the Dolphins are going to air it out against the Cardinals below-average pass defense. I think you’ll see a few big plays to WR Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins will play with a lot of enthusiasm with their captain back. I’m taking the Dolphins to cover at home.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (+7) – My pick is New York Jets -7

The New York Jets (2-5, 2-5 ATS) are coming off a 37-15 road loss to the Steelers, which was a far cry from the -2.5 spread as the favorite. The Jets have outright lost four-straight games, and failed against the spread in all of those games. This game is the most striking since the Steelers got out to an awful start, but the second-half was all Steel Curtain. QB Aaron Rodgers continues to try to do too much and is making bad throws. He reminds me of when Brett Favre was on the Jets, but without as many scandals.

The New England Patriots (1-6, 1-5-2 ATS) are coming off a 32-16 road loss to Jacksonville in London, which lost against the +6.5 spread. Rookie QB Drake Maye played pretty darn well, as he didn’t commit a turnover in the loss. It was clear that the Jaguars were shutting down the running game and baiting the rookie to throw. Maye had a better outing than I thought he would have against a solid Jaguars pass rush.

Patriots QB Drake Maye has the ability to make plays, more than any other quarterback on the roster, but the Jets secondary is elite. Maye could have a ‘welcome to the NFL’ moment if he misses a few throws towards CB Sauce Gardner. I don’t love the Jets right now, but I’m literally betting on Maye to make a few too many mistakes.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -2

The Atlanta Falcons (4-3, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 34-14 home loss to the Seahawks, which was nowhere close to the -3 point spread as the favorite. It was a surprising outcome due to Atlanta’s recent string of outright wins. QB Kirk Cousins had a bad game with two interceptions, and a fumble that lead to a touchdown that basically sealed the loss. I think this is a one-game aberration and the Falcons are still an above average team.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 41-31 home loss to the Ravens. It was a tough outing overall, as the final score makes it look like the game was close. The Bucs had two late garbage-time touchdowns to keep this from appearing as a blowout loss. The Bucs defense didn’t have an answer for QB Lamar Jackson or RB Derrick Henry. Also, they saw WR Chris Godwin dislocate his ankle and will miss the rest of the season.

The Bucs pass defense is one of the worst in the league, and Cousins will be motivated to rebound after his worst game of the year. The Bucs usually relies on their passing game to combat their porous defense. They end up in shootouts, and with Godwin and Mike Evans (hamstring) both out, that won’t be easy. I’m taking the Falcons to cover on the road.

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-11.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -11.5

The Tennessee Titans (1-5, 1-5 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 road loss to the Bills, which was far from the +10 point spread as the underdog. It was going to be a tough match-up for the Titans, but they did go up 10-0 early, but then allowed 34 unanswered points. They started backup QB Mason Rudolph over Will Levis, and the offense didn’t see much of a change. Going forward, the offense will take another hit, as they traded star WR DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs. Titans are going with Rudolph again this coming week.

The Detroit Lions (5-1, 5-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-29 road win over the Vikings. The Lions got out to a double-digit lead in the first-half, but let the Vikings back into the game in the fourth quarter. QB Jared Goff continued his string of great games with another efficient outing, and RB Jahmyr Gibbs had an outstanding game as well. It’s clear that the Lions defense isn’t the same without DE Aidan Hutchinson, but they are still very good.

I love the Lions right now, so I’m not scared of this bloated point spread. The Titans offense is in shambles and I don’t like Rudolph, at all. Goff will pick apart the Titans defense and cover at home.

Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -4.5

The Green Bay Packers (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 24-22 home win over the Texans, which was a point shy of the spread. The Packers nearly lost the gave due to their own errors. They gave up three turnovers after a fairly efficient offensive drives. They should have covered the spread if they had been smarter in the second-half. It’s clear QB Jordan Love is trying to keep WR Romeo Doubs happy with double-digit targets.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 32-16 win over the Patriots in London, which covered the -6.5 spread as the favorite. They got off to a slow start, but RB Tank Bigsby got a head full of steam. The Jaguars offense has been much better since they’ve been feeding Tank. On defense, the it is a little surprising since Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye had a solid game in the loss.

The Packers are 5-1 over their last six games (4-2 ATS), and I think a healthy Love has turned the season around. He will make some self-inflicted errors, it’s just the way he plays, but I think they should be able to extend a lead on the inconsistent Jaguars. I’m taking the Packers to cover.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-5.5) – My pick is Houston Texans -5.5

The Indianapolis Colts (4-3, 6-1 ATS) are coming off a 16-10 home win over the Dolphins, which covered the -3 as the favorite. QB Anthony Richardson was healthy enough to start this one, but RB Jonathan Taylor continues to be on the shelf. Richardson didn’t have a great game, but the Dolphins offense is broken without Tua, so the Colts were able to squeak out an outright win at home.

The Houston Texans (5-2, 3-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-22 road loss to the Packers, which covered the +3 spread by a single point. QB C.J. Stroud had a tough outing, as he didn’t complete 50% of his passes and didn’t throw any touchdowns. Luckily, RB Joe Mixon had his best game as a Texas gaining 115 yards on the ground and two rushing scores. The Texans defense was able to keep them in this game until the end.

The Colts have been a sneaky good betting team this year, but they’ve had an easy schedule. They did only lose by two points in Week 1 against the Texans, but they had a healthy RB Jonathan Taylor in that game. He returned to practice this week, but I worry about his effectiveness. They just don’t have an identity without him. The Texans will exploit the think Colts secondary. I’m taking the Texans to cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+9) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -9

The Baltimore Ravens (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-31 road win over the Buccaneers, which covered the -4 spread as the favorite. The Ravens offense was able to do what they wanted to the Bucs, but they did lay off the gas on defense late in the game. The game wasn’t as close as the final score would make you to believe. I keep waiting for RB Derrick Henry to run out of steam, but he still appears to have fresh legs.

The Cleveland Browns (1-6, 2-5 ATS) are coming off a 21-14 home loss to the Bengals, which was just shy of the +5.5 spread as the underdog. They lost QB Deshaun Watson (torn Achilles) for the season and used quarterbacks Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jameis Winston to finish out the game. DTR was pretty darn bad and Winston at least put up some points. It appears that Winston will get the first shot at being the full-time starter.

The Browns are a team in turmoil and I could see them canning the head coach if they get embarrassed in any upcoming game. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens run up the score on the Browns on Sunday. Cleveland’s defense has been pretty solid this year, but they were lapped by Washington and Dallas this season. The Ravens are going to cover on the road.

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (+3) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -3

The Buffalo Bills (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 home win against the Titans, which easily covered the -10 spread as the favorite. The Bills passing offense has been hot-and-cold this season, but it was firing great with newly-added WR Amari Cooper as WR2. The veteran wide receiver caught a touchdown in his debut. The Bills running game was in rough shape again, but I’m sure the Bills just like for at least one facet of their offense to work well.

The Seattle Seahawks (4-3, 2-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-14 road win over the Falcons, which covered the +3 spread with ease. The Seahawks were able to force Falcons QB Kirk Cousins into some poor decisions. I really want to chalk it up to Cousins being ‘off’ that game, more than I want to buy stock into the Seahawks defense being good. It was nice to see QB Geno Smith took advantage of those turnovers and was smart with the ball himself.

I’m going with a lot of favorites this week, so I was really wanting to take the points in a game at this point…but the Seahawks are a bad home team this year. I like the Bills offense with Cooper, and they should be able to throw on the Seahawks. I’m taking the Bills to cover on the road.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints +7.5

The New Orleans Saints (2-5, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 33-10 home loss to the Broncos on Thursday, which wasn’t close to the +2.5 betting line as the favorite. Saints rookie QB Spencer Rattler was ‘nervous’ in his first start with two lost fumbles. When it comes to fumble issues, I always view them as a case of the nerves. He was benched in favor of QB Jake Haener late in the game. It’s currently unknown who will start for the Saints going forward, even Derek Carr is in the mix for this week’s game.

The Los Angeles Chargers (3-3, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 17-15 road loss to the Cardinals, which was a few points shy of the -1 spread as the favorite. It was a weird game for the Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers, as they focused heavy on the passing game. QB Justin Herbert had 349 passing yards, but they failed to score a single touchdown. They were only able to kick five field goals in the loss.

The Saints quarterback situation is up in the air as of Wednesday, but the Chargers haven’t been able to extend leads since the early weeks of the season. I expect the Chargers to win this game outright, but that extra half-point is what is keeping me from taking them. When things look murky, I take the points.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (+2.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders +2.5

The Chicago Bears (4-2, 4-1-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Jaguars 35-16 in London. The Bears offense was outstanding abroad with rookie QB Caleb Williams throwing four touchdowns. They were able to do whatever they wanted against the Jaguars, which was nice to see if you’re a Bears fan. Also, it was nice to see Williams start to use TE Cole Kmet more, as he will be an outstanding, sure-handed check-down target going forward.

The Washington Commanders (5-2, 5-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 40-7 home win over the Panthers, which easily covered the -10.5 point spread. The final score isn’t what Commanders fans are talking about after the win, it’s the health of rookie QB Jayden Daniels ribs. He injured them early in the win and backup QB Marcus Mariota played great in the blowout win. I think Mariota is the perfect backup for Daniels. He can step in and the Commanders gameplan doesn’t need to change much.

I fully expect the Commanders will treat rookie QB Jayden Daniels, so I expect Mariota will start this game. He played well in relief and I don’t think there’s much of a downgrade there. This game should be close, so I’m taking the points.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (-9) – My pick is Denver Broncos -9

The Carolina Panthers (1-6, 1-6 ATS) are coming off a 40-7 road loss against the Commanders, which wasn’t close to the +10.5 betting line. It was an abhorrent offensive outing for the Panthers. QB Andy Dalton only had double-digit passing yards and threw two picks in the loss. It was also RB Chuba Hubbard’s worst outing since Dalton took over. Dalton was involved in a car accident this week, so QB Bryce Young will start this coming week’s game.

The Denver Broncos (4-3, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a 33-10 road win over the Saints, which easily covered the -2.5 spread. The Broncos didn’t put up a ton of points in a hurry, but they were able to get some points just about every time down the field. They only punted three times, which is very low for this team. The defense even added to the lead with a late fumble return touchdown. The Broncos continues to be a team that can beat bad teams.

Panthers QB Bryce Young is a huge wild card in this game, but I don’t see him being much of an upgrade over Dalton. He could just try to do too much and Hubbard hasn’t been as effective when Young is under center. I haven’t been high on the Broncos for most of the year, but they win the vast majority of matchup battles. I’m taking the Broncos to cover at home.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+10) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -10

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-0, 5-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-18 road win over the Niners, which covered the spread as the +2 underdog. QB Patrick Mahomes continues to be underwhelming from a statistical output, but the Chiefs are still undefeated, so it’s working. The Chiefs backfield is going a lot of the heavy lifting this year. The addition of RB Kareem Hunt has been one of the better signings this season so far.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-5, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 20-15 road loss to the Rams, which covered the +7.5 spread as the underdog. QB Aidan O’Connell broke his thumb on his throwing hand and will be out for the foreseeable future. I’m not sure how long the Raiders will go with QB Gardner Minshew before they completely tank the year and start newly-signed QB Desmond Ridder. The Raiders will be having a fire sale soon.

The Chiefs have been great against the spread this season, but this is the largest point spread they’ve faced all season. They’ve historically played down to their opponents when they face a double-digit point spread. The Raiders are just a bad team right now, but they are inter-division rivals, so anything can happen. The Chiefs have beaten the Raiders by at least ten points in four of their last six meetings. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys +4.5

The Dallas Cowboys (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they lost at home to the Lions 47-9. I’m not sure what they could fix during their bye week without changing some personnel, and that didn’t happen. The Cowboys are just going to be a flawed team, especially on offense, as their running game is an absolute joke. It will be hard for them to beat good teams with a mediocre, one-dimensional offense.

The San Francisco 49ers (3-4, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 28-18 home loss to the Chiefs, which failed to cover the -2 spread as the favorite. I’m not sure why the Niners were favored, as they are hurting on offense, even before this game. They lost WR Brandon Aiyuk (knee) for the season in the loss, and news came out that WR Deebo Samuel (pneumonia) was hospitalized for a few days this week. Their healthiest receiver is rookie Ricky Pearsall, who was shot in the chest a few months ago, literally. QB Brock Purdy is throwing to guys who he has zero history with, other than superstar TE George Kittle, who will be quadruple-teamed going forward.

The Niners injuries have me worried at the moment. The Cowboys are coming off their bye week and the Niners injury report needs a table of contents. As I said above, the Cowboys are a flawed team who can’t run the ball, but their big play capability is the reason I’m taking the points in this game.

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

The New York Giants (2-5, 2-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-3 home loss to the Eagles, which wasn’t close to the +3 spread as the underdog. The Giants offense wasn’t magically-healed once rookie WR Malik Nabors returned to the field. They struggled to run the ball and QB Daniel Jones was even randomly-benched towards the end of the game. Jones is still officially the starter, but it was an odd move.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a 37-15 home win over the Jets, which easily covered the +2.5 spread as the underdog. It was a rough start to the QB Russell Wilson Era, but he rebounded to have one of his better games since leaving Seattle. He threw for two touchdowns and ran for another, and got a lot of help from RB Najee Harris. There are rumors that they could be going after another star receiver in a trade, which would give Wilson a full cupboard.  

The Giants coaching staff made a big mistake by benching Daniel Jones last week. I don’t see it being a positive decision and may have caused hurt feelings. Teammates could start to look at Jones as a lame duck leader. I really liked what I saw from the Steelers offense in the final three quarters of last week’s win. I’m taking Pittsburgh to cover at home.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 59-43-5

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob/