I went 8-8 against the spread last week.
This week’s NFL betting picks was up later than I usually like due to attending an Alice Cooper concert on Tuesday and being in a Nyquil haze due to a lingering cough. It was a good time and I suggest seeing his show while he’s still out there.
There are a few surprise 2-0 teams against the spread right now. No one thought the New York Giants would be among that group, and the Detroit Lions occupy that space as well.
Can the Giants and Lions continue their hot betting streak?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-4.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers (1-0-1 ATS) lost last week’s contest against the Patriots 17-14. This is clearly not the same Steelers offense we’ve seen over the last decade. They don’t have much ability to move the ball quickly. If they fall behind, it will be hard for this squad to catch up. The Browns (1-1 ATS) were victims of an unbelievable 31-30 comeback win by the Jets. It looked like they were set to cover their -6.5 betting line, but they completely screwed the pooch in the final 90+ seconds. The Browns offense are in similar shape as the Steelers, they need long drives to score points. I don’t see this game being a high-scoring contest, I have to take the points.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+3) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
The Saints (0-2 ATS) struggled against the Buccaneers and lost 20-10. It came out this week that Saints QB Jameis Winston is dealing with multiple fractures in his spine right now. It’s nuts that he’s able to play, but his skills took a hit last week. The Panthers (0-2 ATS) had higher hopes of their offense playing well this year, but they’ve stumbled out of the gate. I do commend them for playing RB Christian McCaffrey more in their 19-16 loss to the Giants. They are not in a position to win games if they treat him with kid’s gloves. I’m betting on the Saints to force Panthers QB Baker Mayfield to cough up the ball a couple times. I’m taking the Saints to cover on the road.
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-2.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Texans (0-1-1 ATS) traveled to Denver and did very little to impress in their 16-9 loss to the Broncos. I’ve liked some moments from Texans QB Davis Mills in the past, but he hopes we all forget that game. They will be a tricky team to bet against later in the season, but I have my doubts about their shot at keeping this week’s game within a field goal. The Bears (1-1 ATS) continued their streak of bad games against the Packers in their 27-10 loss. It was hard to figure out how good this Bears team was after the rain-soaked Week 1 win over the Niners, but we know more after this loss to the Packers. Their offense will run on the ground, either from a pair of running backs or QB Justin Fields himself. I doubt he will throw 20+ attempts in a game, unless they are down big. I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs (1-1 ATS) beat division rival Chargers 27-24 at home. It was a big test for their secondary and they held up enough for the win. Their offensive stats aren’t impressive since they were helped by a 99-yard interception return by Jaylen Watson in the fourth quarter. The Chargers defense is legit, so that’s a tip of the cap to them. The Colts (0-2 ATS) have been unimpressive this season. The lone bright spot is RB Jonathan Taylor, even though his offensive line has struggled. Also, new Colts QB Matt Ryan threw three interceptions in their 24-0 loss at Jacksonville. Indy’s defense were hyped up this offseason with a couple big acquisitions, but they have been playing without the heart of the defense, Shaquille Leonard. As of early Thursday, it’s unknown if he is healthy enough to debut. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on the road.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+5.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
The Bills (2-0 ATS) have been the best team of this young season. They have a 72-17 combined score through their first two games. Their defense is filled with playmakers and adding LB Von Miller should have been illegal. They did suffer a couple injuries in their secondary last week, but their overall defense is still very good. The Dolphins (2-0 ATS) successfully completed a comeback in their 42-38 win in Baltimore. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa threw six touchdowns and has a pair of receivers (Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle) that are hard to defend. I expect the Bills till put a lot of pressure on Tua and force him into some bad plays. I love the Bills right now and I’m taking them to cover (before we start seeing double-digit point spreads in their games).
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Lions (2-0 ATS) opened last week as the betting line favorite against Washington, but they were a point underdog before kick-off. They got out to a 20-point lead by halftime, but their defense really struggled in the second-half. They can be thrown on this year, which is worrisome as we progress in the season. The Vikings (1-1 ATs) came out flat against the Eagles and it was never close. They went on to lose 24-7 in Philly that saw Vikings QB Kirk Cousins throw three interceptions. He will face a less ball-hawkish secondary this week and I don’t think anyone on the Lions can hang with Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. I’m taking the Vikings to cover at home.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (+3) – My pick is New England Patriots
The Ravens (1-1 ATS) lost a high-scoring affair and lost to the Dolphins 42-38. Their secondary should be ashamed of themselves as they gave up 461 yards through the air. Also, the Ravens backfield is in rough shape and they’ll need QB Lamar Jackson to do most of the work on the ground. The Patriots (0-1-1 ATS) traveled to Pittsburgh and came out with a 17-14 win. New England never trailed in the game and was in control for most of the game. Patriots did whiff on some crucial third downs, so they couldn’t pull away. I’m betting that the Ravens secondary took a big confidence hit after last week’s collapse. I’m taking the points in this game.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (+5.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals (0-2 ATS) have disappointed bettors so far this season. On paper, they should have covered both games. You have a Big Ben-less Steelers in Week 1 and a Dak Prescott-less Cowboys in Week 2. Their offense has been stagnant and they need a big game from QB Joe Burrow. The Jets (1-1 ATS) scored in bunches at the end of last week’s game and finished off a comeback win over the Browns 31-30. Jets backup QB Joe Flacco still has some ‘elite’ skills left in his body. He’s not going to be consistent, but he can pull through a few times a year. They hope to get QB Zach Wilson back soon, but he’s a very capable back-up. I think the Bengals will get their confidence back this week and I think they get out to a double-digit lead by halftime. I’m taking Cincinnati to cover on the road.
Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans (+1.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders (0-2 ATS) are winless on the season, but their offense is in good position. They need to improve their defense and may need a shoot-out to get wins this season. I was looking forward to seeing WR Davante Adams rack up big yards against the Cardinals, but he only finished with two receptions on seven targets. They need to get him the ball if they hope to cover this week. The Titans (0-2 ATS) are in the same shape as the Raiders as both teams have yet to get an outright win. Tennessee is in much worse shape as they are coming off a 41-7 loss to Buffalo. It got so out of hand that they turned to rookie QB Malik Willis to get some reps. He didn’t have much success against the towering Bills defense, but I think they will turn to him permanently if the Titans lose a couple more games. The Raiders will gameplan to get Adams the ball more this week and the Raiders will cover.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (+6.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders
The Eagles (1-1 ATS) surprised me when they beat the Vikings 24-7 last Monday night. Their secondary were able to limit Minnesota’s passing attack and got out to enough of a big lead that the Vikings abandoned the running game in the second-half. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts had another banner day by throwing for 333 yards and adding two rushing touchdowns to his boxscore. The Commanders (1-1 ATS) are coming off a surprising 36-27 loss in Detroit to the Lions. I expected a lot more from Washington’s defense. I understand that Detroit has an underrated offensive line, but they couldn’t get consistent pressure on Lions QB Jared Goff. Washington may not win this game outright, but I think they will stymy Hurts enough to keep it close, so I’m taking the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Jaguars (1-1 ATS) continued the Colts downfall with a 24-0 shutout win. They picked QB Matt Ryan three times and sacked him five times. The forced the Colts to pass the ball as they were behind by too much to just feed RB Jonathan Taylor the ball. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence only missed five passing attempts all game, which is a huge development from last season’s poor completion percentage. The Chargers (2-0 ATS) have been a favorite of mine as they are underrated on both sides of the ball. They started the year off against two elite passing teams and their defense stepped and didn’t allow either quarterback to eclipse 300 yards through the air. I expect the Chargers will turn the screws on Lawrence and force some bad passes. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
The Rams (0-2 ATS) choked in Week 1 against the Bills, but looked much better in their 31-27 win over the Falcons. It wasn’t a complete win, as their defense continues to worry me. I think it’s still strong, but good teams should be able to score on them this year. The Cardinals (1-1 ATS) are also struggled on defense as they’ve allowed a combined 67 points over their last two games. They needed an overtime interception return for a touchdown to get the 29-23 win over the Raiders. I’m expecting a shoot-out in this game. The Rams still have some studs on defense and could make a few plays to keep this close. I think the Rams will squeeze out a cover on the road.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons (2-0 ATS) are winless outright, but lost those two games by a combined five points. I think they’ve found a legit starting quarterback in QB Marcus Mariota. He’s been better than I anticipated and he has shown chemistry with rookie WR Drake London. I also love RB Cordarrelle Patterson, who is a nice knuckleball for defenses to figure out. The Seahawks (1-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-7 loss in San Francisco. Seattle couldn’t get their running game going and the short passes from QB Geno Smith didn’t lead to much. Seattle needs to hold opposing teams to less than 20 points if they want to get a win. I think the Falcons will eclipse that total and I wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta wins outright, so I’m taking the points.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Packers (1-1 ATS) bounced-back from their Week 1 stinker and smoked the Bears 27-10. QB Aaron Rodgers leaned on his running game as his young receiving corps learns on the job. This will need to be the gameplan this season. It will work against average teams, but can it work against Tampa Bay? The Buccaneers (2-0 ATS) aren’t in high-gear right now, but they’ve done enough to get two outright wins. Bucs QB Tom Brady will be playing this game with a few less wide receivers and will need wide receivers Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller to have career games if those other receivers aren’t healthy enough. The Packers secondary could give Brady a few more gray hairs. I’m taking the points.
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (+1.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers (1-1 ATS) lost QB Trey Lance (ankle) for the season and went back to QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who showed he was ready to step in at any time. They also ran the ball a ton with running backs Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tyrion Davis-Price combined for 32 carries. They also started to get WR/RB Deebo Samuel the ball in different ways more. The Broncos (0-2 ATS) are coming off a rather boring win over the Texans. The Broncos offense didn’t awaken until the fourth quarter, when they scored ten points to secure the win. QB Russell Wilson did play better than in Week 1, but the offense needs more playmakers. The Niners are underrated with Jimmy G under center. It’s like people forgot that it was him who led the Niners to the playoffs multiple seasons. I’m taking the Niners to cover on the road.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys (1-1 ATS) will need to lean on QB Cooper Rush for awhile while starting QB Dak Prescott (hand) heals up. They are coming off a 20-17 win over the Bengals. Rush was competent in the win by completing 19 of 31 attempts for 235 yards and a touchdown. They tried to get the backfield involved early, but they didn’t have much success. They can use the short passing game as a replacement for a traditional running game, as RB Tony Pollard has great hands. The Giants (2-0 ATS) came into this season as a joke. This preseason people mocked QB Daniel Jones accuracy in camp and they were written off before Week 1. They’ve played much better than advertised, but played a little more flat in their 19-16 win over the Panthers. Jones was a little less accurate and RB Saquon Barkley looked more pedestrian. They still got the outright win, but they can’t play like that and expect to win against a team like Dallas. I’m taking the points on Monday Night Football.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 15-16-1
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob