Category Archives: green bay packers

2017 NFL Week 9 – Betting Picks Against Spread

I had a solid week picking NFL games against the spread last week. I went 9-4, but totally whiffed on the Thursday game (again). Miami ended up playing one of the worst games this season.

There are thirteen games on the schedule again with six teams on bye. There are only two more weeks of byes and then we are back to a full 16-game schedule.

The slate of games last week was very enjoyable. I especially loved the Seattle/Houston game. Hell, the Colts/Bengals game was even unexpectedly close in the final minutes.

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the 2017 NFL season.

Continue reading →

2017 NFL Fantasy Football Start/Sit – Week 7

Rookie running backs are making a huge impact on NFL teams this year. It’s almost like they collectively got together and decided that enough was enough. They had to do something to get future running backs taken high in the NFL Draft again.

Miami and Houston are the only two teams on bye. You may need to fill a hole in your roster left by QBs Deshaun Watson and Matthew Stafford or WR DeAndre Hopkins…a long-term replacement for injured Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.

Here is our Fantasy Football Sit/Start for Week 7 of the 2017 NFL season…and enjoy our ~~weird~~ fabulous MS Paint masterpiece of Chargers RB Melvin Gordon.

I want to explain what I mean by “sit” and “start.” Of course you are going to start some of the guys i say to bench this week, because you probably used high draft picks or a lot of money in an auction for them. My ‘sit’ players are guys I am just not completely sold that they will have good weeks. If you have a guy that you are on the fence about, maybe this will help you pick between the players.

Continue reading →

How Important Are Backup Quarterbacks in the NFL?

There are many factors why a team doesn’t put ‘backup quarterback’ high on their shopping list in the offseason or for the NFL Draft. Teams can be hamstrung by the salary cap, lack of quality draft picks and limited roster spots.

If you look at the 2017 NFL season so far, 14 teams have had to use their backup quarterback on at least one drive this season. Most of those were due to injury and Houston/Cleveland/San Francisco had to change quarterbacks due to ineffectiveness.

Injuries to starting quarterbacks have also wreaked havoc on NFL betting odds for the season. Just last week there were three games that had their betting lines delayed by days due to the questions about a quarterback’s health.

How much equity (roster spot, salary, high draft pick) should an NFL team use on a backup quarterback today?

Continue reading →

2017 NFL Week 6 – Betting Picks Against Spread

I went 8-5-1 last week against the spread.

I once again hit all the late games and went 1-0-1 ATS on Sunday and Monday nights. I just need to do better on my Thursday and early game picks. I would have hit the Thursday game, but ~~current~~ former Tampa Bay kicker Nick Folk forgot how to use his feet.

This is the first week I have noticed a big uptick in double-digit point spreads. Those will become more rampant as the season goes on, but I didn’t find this week’s double-digit point spreads to be egregious.

Can the Chiefs keep winning and beat the Steelers Sunday afternoon?

Will my Thursday Night Football streak of futility snap this week?

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2017 NFL season.

Continue reading →

2017 NFL Week 5 – Betting Picks Against Spread

I went 11-5 last week against the spread.

I hit both Sunday night and Monday night football games and all of the afternoon games. If only I picked the Thursday game and the early games better.

Thursday night games have been my kryptonite. I have only hit on one all season. I am guilty of overthinking those games. It’s a hangover from last year when Thursday games were extremely unpredictable. I’ve taken an unpopular positions on Thursday game, but that will change.

Let’s talk about how good the Kansas City Chiefs are this year. The addition of rookie RB Kareem Hunt made a huge difference, but he isn’t the only improvement. QB Alex Smith is playing with new life in his arm. Who knew that think could throw passes farther than 12 yards?

Can the Chiefs keep winning and beat the Texans on Sunday night football?

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 5 of the 2017 NFL season.

Continue reading →

2017 NFL Week 2 – Betting Picks Against Spread

After missing two games by a half-point this weekend, I went 10-5 against the spread. I can’t be too sore about the half-point misses cause the ball will fall in my corner at some point this season. I still had a good week.

Week 1 had a lot of new faces making an impact. Marshawn Lynch was trucking defensive lineman for Oakland after sitting out last season. Rookies like Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt also stole the show.

There are so many good games this week. Vegas doesn’t even know what to do with a lot of these games. They gave way too many games point spreads in-between 4 and 5.5.

Will we see more blowouts like the Rams 46-9 win over the Colts?

How many of these gaudy double-digit point spreads will cover?

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 2 of the 2017 NFL season.

Continue reading →

2017 NFL Week 1 – Betting Picks Against Spread

It’s finally time to start picking NFL games against the spread!

A lot of playoff teams from last year come into this year with either relatively the same roster, or even better. Not many of the top teams are expected to fall out of the playoff race this season. The rich got richer this offseason, especially the New England Patriots.

A few rookies are already in impact roles like Deshone Kizer who was named the starting quarterback in Cleveland and players like Myles Garrett, Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey should make an impact in Week 1 of the season.

Can Aaron Rodgers defeat Russell Wilson for a third time in a row?

Will the Colts get blown out in Los Angeles without Andrew Luck?

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season.

Continue reading →

2017 NFL Conference Championship Games – Betting Picks Against Spread

I ended up going .500 against the spread and over/unders last week. I was burned by Seattle and many of the overs hit. I wasn’t as bullish on the scoring, just like this week.

Both conference championship games are rematches from games in late-October. All four teams were without at least one major player in those games. Heck, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t even play in their loss at home to the Patriots.

Which former teammates back will make the biggest impact on the ground in the Steelers/Patriots game, Le’Veon Bell or LeGarrette Blount?

We pick every NFL Conference Championship games against the spread.

Continue reading →

2017 NFL Divisional Playoff Games – Betting Picks Against Spread

Your boy had a rough Wild Card Weekend. I missed a two over/unders by just a few points and really had a rough Sunday. I usually kill it in the postseason, so hopefully it was just an off week.

All four games this weekend are rematches from games early in the season. Don’t get too hung up on the outcomes from those games since all the games took place in September and October. Many impact players like Tom Brady and Dez Bryant didn’t even play in those contests.

Will the first-round bye leave teams rusty or will they come in well-rested?

We pick every NFL Divisional Playoff round games against the spread.

Continue reading →

2017 NFL Wild Card Playoff Games – Betting Picks Against Spread

I’m limping into the postseason after back-to-back near-.500 weeks against the spread.

I’ve already done pretty darn well picking games against the spread in the postseason. I find it to be easier than picking the games straight up. Injuries will play a huge factor this week as two teams are playing backup quarterbacks.

Three of the four playoff games are being played outdoors, so check weather reports before kickoff.

Will the teams that finished hot this year stay hot when the pressure is on?

Will the backup quarterbacks make a name for themselves and pull off upsets this weekend?

We pick every NFL Wild Card Weekend game against the spread.

Continue reading →

2016 NFL Week 17 – Betting Picks Against Spread

I finished 9-7 last week and suffered a few bad beats. I want to end the regular season with a strong week, but Week 17 is usually a crap shoot.

I’ve spent the last couple days battling a horrible flu. I did have a chance to study who may sit Week 17. I also explain which teams still have something to play for this Sunday.

A lot of weird stuff happens during the last week of the season. We are almost guaranteed to have some receiver or running back have 200+ yards or some backup quarterback pull a ‘Matt Flynn’ and throw for a ton of yards. Can Raiders backup QB Matt McGloin be this year’s Week 17 surprise?

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 17 of the 2016 NFL season.

Continue reading →

2016 NFL Week 16 – Betting Picks Against Spread

I finished 9-6-1 last week after betting on a lot of covers. It worked in my favor and most of the favorites did well against the spread last week.

Betting games late in the NFL season does pose a few extra things to consider than betting early season games. Not only do you have to factor in weather issues, but a team’s motivation to win could be a huge factor. If a team has nothing left to play for, it could hurt their performance against the spread.

Also, you don’t want to make motivation the ‘end all, be all’ factor. Players on bad teams are still playing for contracts this offseason and roster spots next year. You have to toe a thin line at this point in the season.

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 16 of the 2016 NFL season.

Continue reading →