I went 6-8 in Week 14 of the NFL football season.

I was extraordinarily late posting my picks, so I was unable to post my Thursday Night Football pick in time for the game.

We have some strange teams battling for their playoff lives right now. The Chiefs, Ravens and Bills could see their playoff hopes take a huge dive with losses this week. Those teams are usually on cruise control for their division crown, or at least have a lead to do so.

We pick every almost every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season.

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -13

Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders +11.5

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-11, 4-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-17 home loss to the Broncos, but was a slight win against the +7.5 spread.

The Philadelphia Eagles (8-5, 7-6 ATS) are coming off a 22-19 road loss to the Chargers, which failed to cover the -1 spread.

The Raiders will start backup QB Kenny Pickett in place of Geno Smith (shoulder). Pickett has everything to gain in this game. Do I think he will have a big game? No, but as long as he limits turnovers, which has killed Geno, I think he has a shot against the spread. The Eagles haven’t scored more than 24 points since late-October. I think the Raiders keep this within ten points, so give me the points.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-9.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals +9.5

The Arizona Cardinals (3-10, 6-7 ATS) are coming off a 45-17 home loss to the Rams, and was also a loss against the +9.5 spread.

The Houston Texans (8-5, 7-6 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 road win over the Chiefs, and was a win against the +4.5 spread.

The Texans defense has carried their team since the early weeks of the season. I think they will get the outright win again, but I think the Cardinals will keep it closer than many expect. As long as Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett can keep from throwing picks, I think they’ll keep this game within a score. I’m taking the points in this game.

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-7.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears -7.5

The Cleveland Browns (3-10, 5-8 ATS) are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Titans, and failed to cover the -3 spread.

The Chicago Bears (9-4, 8-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-21 road loss to the Packers, which was a push against the spread.

I am still not convinced that the Browns have their franchise quarterback on the roster. I actually think Dillon Gabriel is a smarter, safer quarterback right now. Sanders has all the confidence in the world, but that’s dangerous for a rookie on a bad team. I think the Bears till limit Sanders and cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals +2.5

The Baltimore Ravens (6-7, 4-9 ATS) are coming off a 27-22 home loss to the Steelers, which failed to cover the -6 spread.

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-9, 6-7 ATS) are coming off a 39-34 road loss to the Bills, which was a win against the +6.5 betting line.

The Bengals are basically eliminated from playoff contention, although not officially, but they have limit to prove. That didn’t stop QB Joe Burrow from trying his best to beat the Bills last week. Cincinnati is probably the best non-playoff team right now, since they have their quarterback healthy. The Ravens are still up-and-down since they got their own star quarterback under center. Both of these teams have seen their defenses fall off a cliff this year. I like the Bengals a little more, so I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers +5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers (9-4. 6-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 22-19 home win over the Eagles, which was a win against the +1 betting line.

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-7, 5-8 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 home loss to the Texans, which failed to cover the -4.5 spread.

The Chiefs are now battling for a Wild Card spot in the AFC, which is unfamiliar territory for the perennial AFC champions. They have hit a tough stretch of games, and they are 1-4 outright (0-5 ATS) in their last five games. I think Kansas City will get the outright win on Sunday, but I think it could be close. They just need a W right now, so I’m taking the points.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants (-2.5) – My pick is New York Giants -2.5

The Washington Commanders (3-10, 4-9 ATS) are coming off a rough 31-0 road loss to the Vikings, which was also a loss against the +1 spread.

The New York Giants (2-11, 7-6 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Patriots 33-15.

The Commanders don’t have much to hang their hat on this year. They’ve went from the NFC Championship game to only three outright wins through 14 weeks. Also, their young, franchise quarterback couldn’t stay healthy. The Giants may only have two outright wins, but there are many positive things going on. Based on their record against the spread, they are clearly overachieving their real-life record. I believe this is the first time rookie QB Jaxson Dart has started a game as the betting favorite. I think they will get it done and cover at home.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+1) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -1

The Buffalo Bills (9-4, 6-7 ATS) are coming off a 39-34 home win over the Bengals, but failed to cover the -6.5 spread.

The New England Patriots (11-2, 8-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Giants 33-15.

The Patriots have an unbelievable record, but after even a quick glance at their schedule, you’ll realize they’ve been eating cupcakes since their 23-20 road win at Buffalo in early-October. They’ve had teams on the schedule like the Saints, Titans, Jets, Browns, Falcons, Giants, etc., so I’m still not sold on them being a top-level team in the AFC. I think the Bills will get the outright win in Foxborough.

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-6) – My pick is Detroit Lions +6

The Detroit Lions (8-5, 7-6 ATS) are coming off a 44-30 home win over the Cowboys, and covered the -4 spread.

The Los Angeles Rams (10-3, 9-4 ATS) are coming off a 45-17 road win over the Cardinals, and covered the -9.5 spread.

This is a tough match-up to handicap. I think the Rams are still being slept on, but this point spread doesn’t show much of that. I think this betting line is inflated after last week’s blowout over the Cardinals. If they were around a field goal favorite, I would be more inclined to take them. I think I’ll have to take the points here.

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+2) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -2

The Green Bay Packers (9-3-1, 5-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-21 home win over the Bears, which was a push against the -7 spread.

The Denver Broncos (11-2, 5-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-17 road win over the Raiders, but failed to cover the -7.5 spread.

The Packers have rebounded after their early-November offensive woes. They have swept their division foes over their last three games. I like the Broncos defense a lot, so I believe this game could end up very close to this line. I usually take the home underdog in a coin flip like this, but I like the trajectory of the Packers right now. Packers QB Jordan Love tends to get better in December. I’m taking the Packers to cover in Denver.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+2.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers (7-6, 8-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Rams 31-28.

The New Orleans Saints (3-10, 5-8 ATS) are coming off a 24-20 road win over the Buccaneers, which was also a win against the +7.5 spread.

The Saints are a better team with rookie QB Tyler Shough under center, but this line is tough for them. The Panthers are way better since they were trounced by the Patriots in late-September. They are 6-3 (6-3 ATS) since that loss. I think people are still sleeping on the Panthers, so I’m taking Carolina to cover on the road.

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -13.5

The Indianapolis Colts (8-5,7-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 36-19 road loss to the Jaguars, but failed to cover the -2.5 spread.

The Seattle Seahawks (10-3, 10-3 ATS) are coming off a 37-9 road win, and covered the -6.5 spread.

The Colts lost QB Daniel Jones for the season due to a torn Achilles, and rookie Riley Leonard didn’t do too bad in relief. They signed 44-year-old Philip Rivers as a backup, since it’s looking increasingly unlikely Anthony Richardson will be cleared anytime soon from a broken orbital bone. Leonard is dealing with his own knee injury, but has been a full participant in practice for two days this week. After filling you in on the Colts quarterback situation, it doesn’t matter much…Seattle is on fire right now. I think the Seahawks will be able to move the ball at-will and cover at home.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans +12.5

The Tennessee Titans (2-11, 6-7 ATS) are coming off a 31-29 road win over the Browns, and was a win against the +3 spread.

The San Francisco 49ers (9-4, 8-5 ATS) are coming off a 26-8 road win over the Browns, and covered the -5.5 spread.

The Titans are slowly getting more competitive against the spread. They are actually coming off an outright win against the Browns. I think Tennessee’s defense has improved, and rookie QB Cam Ward is getting more comfortable. The Niners will likely win this game outright, but I think the Titans will keep this within single digits, so I’m taking the points.

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys -5.5

The Minnesota Vikings (5-8, 5-8 ATS) are coming off a 31-0 home win over the Commanders, and covered the -1 spread.

The Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1, 7-6 ATS) are coming off a 44-30 road loss to the Lions, and lost against the +4 betting line.

I wouldn’t put too much juice into last week’s Vikings outcome. I think the Commanders were just deflated after seeing a few key players suffer major injuries. The Zach Ertz injury was extremely gruesome. I think the Cowboys are the better team and the defense has improved enough to confuse Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy. I’m taking Dallas to cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins +3.5

The Miami Dolphins (6-7, 7-6 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 road win over the Jets, and covered the -2.5 spread.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, 6-7 ATS) are coming off a 27-22 road win over the Ravens, and was a win against the +6 spread.

The Dolphins have officially saved the job of their head coach. I think they are playing their best right now. Are they AFC title contenders? I highly doubt it, but I do think they will compete well against the Steelers. Pittsburgh could be without star LB T.J. Watt (lung) who has been hospitalized after something happened during treatment. I hate to speculate, but in 2020 then-Chargers QB Tyrod Taylor had a trainer give him a shot for cracked ribs, and ended up puncturing his lung. Did something similar happen to Watt? Anyways, I think the Dolphins will keep this close, so give me the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 92-96-4

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob