Due to some server maintenance issues, I missed my first week of football picks in over a decade. I hope you guys had a profitable Thanksgiving week.

I think there is some value in this week’s NFL betting lines. We have a few hot teams that aren’t getting much respect. The Bears are on fire, but are nearly a touchdown underdog against the Packers.

There are some good teams facing uphill battles to earn a playoff spot. Can the 6-6 Kansas City Chiefs make a run?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys +3

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+7) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -7

The Seattle Seahawks (9-3, 9-3 ATS) are coming off a 26-0 win over the Vikings and covered the -13 spread.

The Atlanta Falcons (4-8, 5-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road loss to the Jets, and failed to cover the -3 spread.

The Falcons are a rudderless sailboat right now. They can hang with teams like the Saints and Jets, but the Seahawks are on fire right now. I expect a double-digit win by Seahawks on Sunday. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover on the road.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5

The New Orleans Saints (2-10, 4-8 ATS) are coming off a 21-17 road loss to the Dolphins, but was a win against the +5 spread.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home win over the Cardinals, but failed to cover the -4 spread.

The Saints are a better team with rookie QB Tyler Shough under center, but the Bucs are starting to get healthy again. A few of their weapons were just cleared to practice, so they should be 100% soon. I’m taking the Bucs to cover at home.

Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders +1.5

The Washington Commanders (3-9, 4-8 ATS) are coming off a 27-26 home loss to the Broncos, but was a win against the +6 spread.

The Minnesota Vikings (4-8, 4-8 ATS) are coming off a rough 26-0 road loss to the Seahawks, and lost against the +13 spread.

The Vikings had a ROUGH outing with undrafted rookie QB Max Brosmer starting in place of a concussed J.J, McCarthy, who is expected to be back this week. The Vikings offense will be better, but he hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard himself. I think Commanders have a chance to win this outright with their backup QB Marcus Mariota. I’m taking the points.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-4) – My pick is Cleveland Browns -4

The Tennessee Titans (1-11, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 25-3 home loss to the Jaguars, and was a loss against the +6 spread.

The Cleveland Browns (3-9, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 26-8 home loss to the Niners, and was a loss against the +5.5 spread.

The Titans are the perfect opponent for Browns QB Shedeur Sanders to build his confidence. I think the Browns defense will do a lot of the heavy lifting. I think the Browns will cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -3

The Miami Dolphins (5-7. 6-6 ATS) are coming off a 21-17 home win over the Saints, but failed to cover the -5 spread.

The New York jets (3-9, 8-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 home win over the Falcons, and was a win against the +3 spread.

The Dolphins have been able to right the ship by winning four of their last five games (3-2 ATS). They are benefitting from a rather easy stretch of games now, so they need to take care of business against teams like the Jets and Saints. I think the Dolphins will cover on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -6

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 26-7 home loss to the Bills, and was also a loss against the +3 spread.

The Baltimore Ravens (6-6, 4-8 ATS) are coming off a 32-14 home loss to the Bengals, and wasn’t close to the -7.5 betting line.

The Steelers could be ready to pack it in the for year. We’ve seen a few former players calling for the organization to move on from longtime head coach Mike Tomlin. I think the Ravens should be able to run on the Steelers. This spread is larger than most Steelers/Ravens match-ups, but I’m taking the Ravens to cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5

The Indianapolis Colts (8-4, 7-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-16 home loss to the Texans, and failed to cover the -3 spread.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4, 7-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 25-3 road win over the Titans, and covered the -6 spread.

The Jaguars are on a three-game winning streak (3-0 ATS), but we’ve seen this before. They can string a few games together, but the wheels fall off, and they drop a few in a row. I’m taking Jacksonville due to Colts QB Daniel Jones leg injury. He is clearly missing a gear. When he can’t scramble, his impact takes a hit. I’m taking the points in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-8, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 32-14 road win against the Ravens, and was a win against the +7.5 spread.

The Buffalo Bills (8-4, 6-6 ATS) are coming off a 26-7 road win over the Steelers, and covered the -3 spread.

The Bills wished this match-up happened back with the Bengals were starting QB Joe Flacco. The Bills secondary have been inconsistent, and they face one of the most talented receiving group in the league. I think QB Joe Burrow will light the Bills up. I’m taking the points in this game.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos -7.5

The Denver Broncos (10-2, 5-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-26 road win over the Commanders, but failed to cover the -6 spread.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-10, 3-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-14 road loss to the Chargers, and was a loss against the +10 spread.

These teams met a few weeks ago and the Broncos won at home 10-7. Denver’s defense is impressive and it wouldn’t surprise me if they keep the Raiders to single-digits again. It’s possible head coach Pete Carroll is fighting for his job, if you believe the rumor mill. I think this could end up near the betting line, but I think the Broncos will squeak out a cover.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+8) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals +8

The Los Angeles Rams (9-3, 8-4 ATS) are coming off a 31-28 road loss to the Panthers, which wasn’t close to the -10.5 spread.

The Arizona Cardinals (3-9, 6-6 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 road loss to the Buccaneers, and was a win against the +4 spread.

I think Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. I saw him many times when he was on the Colts. What keeps him from securing a starting job is the few inconsistent outings he will have during a string of starts. Those outings are usually bad enough to scare away teams. He’s carrying the Cardinals offense right now. I think he can keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears +6.5

The Chicago Bears (9-3, 8-4 ATS) are coming off a 24-15 road win over the Eagles, and was a win against the +7.5 spread.

The Green Bay Packers (8-3-1, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 31-24 road win over the Lions, and was a win against the +3 spread.

The Bears are on a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS), and he has taken care of some probable playoff teams. The Packers have historically had the Bears number. The Bears did end a long streak of futility against Green Bay in the final weeks of last season. You could argue that the Packers rested their starters in the second-half of that game, so there should be an asterisk next to that one. The Bears are playing well enough to keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -3

The Houston Texans (7-5, 6-6 ATS) are coming off a 20-16 road win over the Colts, and was a win against the +3 spread.

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-6, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 31-28 road loss to the Cowboys, and failed to cover the -3.5 spread.

This is a tough one. I’ve been down on the Texans for the majority of the year, so I’ve taken a hit on them recently (4-2 ATS in last six games). The Chiefs tend to win when their backs are against the wall. I think the AFC West division crown is out of their reach, but they are fighting for a Wild Card spot right now. I think they will cover at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (8-4, 7-5 ATS) are coming off a 24-15 home loss to the Bears, and failed to cover the -7.5 spread.

The Los Angeles Chargers (8-4, 5-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-14 home win over the Raiders, and covered the -10 spread.

The Eagles offensive coordinator is on the hot seat, at least if you go on Twitter immediately after a loss. I think there is some truth to that, but Philly fans are more vocal than most fanbases. The Chargers have impressed me with their resilience, after suffering major injuries to impact players. I don’t think the Chargers have the depth to compete against the Eagles. I’m taking the Eagles to cover on the road.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 86-88-4

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob