I went 8-7 against the spread during the seventh week of the 2025 NFL season.

We have a light schedule this week with six teams on a bye week.

There are quite a few games dealing with notable injuries at quarterback that could affect betting lines the closer we get to Sunday.

The major injury status to keep an eye on is Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who just returned to practice, but as of Thursday morning, his status is up in the air for their game against the Bears.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings +3.5

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -6.5

The New York Jets (0-7, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a rough 13-6 home loss to the Panthers, which was a loss against the +1 spread.

The Cincinnati Bengals (3-4, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 33-31 home win against the Steelers, which was a win against the +5.5 spread.

I was a week early on the Joe Flacco bandwagon, as he had his best game in a striped helmet last week. He realized that he has outstanding wide receivers, and aired it out. I do believe the Jets secondary can limit him in that aspect, but the Jets offense is a disaster at the moment. The Jets were poised to name Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback, but he’s currently day-to-day with a knee injury. The Jets are a disaster, I’m taking the Bengals to cover at home.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) – My pick is New York Giants +7.5

The New York Giants (2-5, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a brutal 33-32 road loss to the Broncos, but won against the +8.5 spread.

The Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 28-22 road win against the Vikings, which covered the -2.5 spread.

The Giants had one of the worst fourth quarter collapses that I can remember. They were up 32-0 at the start of the quarter, but saw the Broncos scored 33 unanswered the points to get the outright win. You can’t blame anyone other than the head coaching in that game. How will they respond after such a brutal loss? I think they will keep it close with an Eagles team that has struggled to put up a lot of points. I’m taking the points in this game.

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -6.5

The Chicago Bears (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 26-14 home win against the Saints, and covered the -4 spread.

The Baltimore Ravens (1-5, 1-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Rams 17-3.

This pick fully relies on the status of Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, and the line looks like Vegas thinks he’s going to play. He is currently practicing, so it is looking more like that will happen. The Bears have a four-game winning streak, but the quality of their opponents is low. I think the Ravens will end the streak and cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-1) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers +1

The San Francisco 49ers (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 home win over the Falcons, which was a win against the +1 spread.

The Houston Texans (2-4, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-19 road loss to the Seahawks, which was a loss against the +3 betting line.

The Niners have their own quarterback health question mark with Brock Purdy (toe). Backup QB Mac Jones has been fantastic, so the Niners don’t need to rush Purdy, who is clearly still bothered by his injury. I due worry when their other injuries will start to be insurmountable. The Texans have their own consistency issues, and I think the Niners sneak by, regardless of their quarterback.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-7) – My pick is New England Patriots -7

The Cleveland Browns (2-5. 3-3 ATS) are coming off a close 31-6 home win over the Dolphins, which easily covered the -2.5 spread.

The New England Patriots (5-2, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-13 road win against the Titans, which covered the -6.5 spread.

Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel won a game that was perfectly-suited for him to win. He dinks and dunks it with his throws, and rarely ever risky with his passes. He faces a Dolphins team that was a turnover machine. Those are the games Gabriel can win right now. Unfortunately, the Patriots are not a team that turns the ball over much. I’m taking the Patriots to inch out a cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -7.5

The Miami Dolphins (1-6, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 31-6 road loss to the Browns, which wasn’t close to the +2.5 betting line.

The Atlanta Falcons (3-3, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 road loss to the 49ers, which was a loss against the -1 spread.

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is sticking with struggling QB Tua Tagovailoa. His seat is red hot after a rough start. He was hired thanks to his offensive mind, but the Dolphins have personnel issues. That being said, the Falcons have been inconsistent, but have taken care of business at home, with recent wins over Buffalo and Washington. Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. has ben limited in practice this week, but his backfield should carry the weight and do damage against a bad Dolphins defense.

Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (+7) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -7

The Buffalo Bills (4-2, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat lost to the Falcons 24-14.

The Carolina Panthers (4-3, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a 13-6 road win over the Jets, which covered the -1 spread.

The Bills hope to snap a two-game losing streak, and QB Josh Allen hopes to end his turnover issues. The Panthers are on a winning streak, but the opponents haven’t been great. I think the Bills have fixed their issues during their bye week and will come out strong with a cover on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+4) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 24-9 road loss to the Lions, which was a loss against the +6 spread.

The New Orleans Saints (1-6, 2-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-14 road loss to the Bears, which was a loss against the +4 spread.

The Bucs are dealing with a growing list of injuries on both sides of the ball. QB Baker Mayfield had a limited cupboard of weapons in last week’s loss. It appears like RB Bucky Irving, wide receivers Chris Godwin & Mike Evans will all miss this week’s game It’s looking more and more likely that rookie WR Emeka Egbuka could be in street clothes as well. The Saints are a bad team, so it’s so tempting to still take the Bucs with only a single-digit point spread. I’m going to roll the dice and take Mayfield to pull off something with a MASH unit.

Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (-3.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys +3.5

The Dallas Cowboys (3-3-1, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a 44-22 home win over the Commanders, which covered the -1.5 spread.

The Denver Broncos (5-2, 2-4-1 ATS) are coming off a come-from-behind 33-32 home win against the Giants, but failed to cover the -8.5 spread.

The Cowboys offense is legit, but their defense is such a liability. The Broncos are the third-best defense, so it will be a battle when those units are on the field. I could see the Broncos kicking a game-winning field goal late in this one, but failing to cover in a possible high-scoring affair.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-14) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -14

The Tennessee Titans (1-6, 2-5 ATS) are coming off a 31-13 home loss to the Patriots, and was a loss against the +6.5 spread.

The Indianapolis Colts (6-1, 5-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-24 road win over the Chargers, which was a win against the +2.5 spread.

Longtime readers will know that I tend to shy away from double-digit point spreads in the NFL, but after I saw last week, the Titans defense is a disaster. They made Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson look like a Pro Bowl-level running back. I believe the Colts will have a field day on teh ground against the Titan. I’m taking Indy to cover this large point spread at home.

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -3

The Green Bay Packers (4-1-1, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-23 road win over the Cardinals, but failed to cover the -7 spread.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-33 road loss to the Bengals, and failed to cover the -5.5 betting line.

It’s no secret that I’ve been on the opposite of a lot Steelers bets this year. I’m probably under.500 in their games, so I may have some anti-Aaron Rodgers bias. The Steelers defense was lost against the Bengals last week, so that’s swaying my pick this week. I think the Packers should be able to put up a better defensive effort and move the ball on offense. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the road.

Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -12.5

The Washington Commanders (3-4, 3-4 ATS) are coming off a 44-22 road loss to the Cowboys, and was a loss against the +1.5 betting line.

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, 4-3 ATS) are coming off a dominant 31-0 home win over the Raiders, which covered the -13.5 spread.

I’m sure ESPN was looking forward to a Jayden Daniels versus Patrick Mahomes face-off, but Daniels (hamstring) has been ruled out of this contest. Backup QB Marcus Mariota is one of the better backups in the league, so the drop-off isn’t too steep. He will do enough to not lose the game, but I’ve never seen game-breaking playmaking ability from him. As confident as I was in the Colts double-digit cover, this one gives me pause. The Redskins do have a lot of injuries on offense, so if they get double by double-digits, it could be a struggle to make it close. I think I’m going to take a slight cover by the Chiefs.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 53-53-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob