I went 6-8 against the spread during the fifth week of the 2025 NFL season.

I started out very rough with the early games, but was able to run the table on the afternoon games.

Last week, we saw a lot of outright upsets against perennial powerhouses. The Eagles, Bills and Chiefs all went down, which probably hasn’t happened in the same week in a long time.

Will the Lions cover on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+7) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -7

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets (+7) – My pick is Denver Broncos -7

The Denver Broncos (3-2, 2-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-17 win at Philadelphia, which was a win against the +4 spread. 

The New York Jets (0-5, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 37-22 home loss to the Cowboys, which was a loss against the +1 spread.

The Broncos caught the Eagles flat-footed with 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to clinch the comeback win. Denver’s defense should be the key to victory for them, as the Jets continue to be a disaster. I’m taking the Broncos to cover in Europe.

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens+7.5

The Los Angeles Rams (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 26-23 home loss to the Niners, which failed to cover the -8.5 line.

The Baltimore Ravens (1-4, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 44-10 loss to the Texans, which wasn’t even close to the +1 spread.

Both teams are coming off disappoint games, but the Ravens season is in peril. QB Lamar Jackson’s hamstring is still bothering him, as of Wednesday, he has yet to practice. I believe QB Cooper Rush is a good backup, but he doesn’t appear to be a great fit for this offense. Also, the Ravens defense has taken a huge step backwards. I think they’ll rebound and keep this one close, so give me the points.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns +5.5

The Cleveland Browns (1-4, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 21-17 home loss to the Vikings, and was a slight loss against the +3.5 spread.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Vikings 24-21.

The Browns traded QB Joe Flacco to the Bengals, so it seems like rookie QB Dillon Gabriel has the keys to the franchise. He doesn’t have a great arm, but he takes care of the ball with short throws. A defense will take that away from him at some point, and that could exploit his weakness. I think there is a little value left in this line, and I think Gabriel is a tad underrated in the betting line. Also, rookie RB Quinshon Judkins is another big reason why I’m taking the points.

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts (-7) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -7

The Arizona Cardinals (2-3, 2-3 ATS) are coming off an embarrassing collapse in a 22-21 home loss to the Titans, which was also a loss against the -7.5 spread.

The Indianapolis Colts (4-1, 4-1 ATS) are coming off an impressive 40-6 home win over the Raiders, which covered the -7.5 spread.

The Colts are chugging along, and the AFC South now appears to be a solid division with the Jaguars and Texans playing well right now. Indy continues to be underrated as they’ve covered four of five games this year. Indiana Jones is the frontrunner for Comeback Player of the Year. The Cardinals blew a large lead on a bonehead, pre-touchdown celebration, which would have been the nail-in-the-coffin. That sort of stench tends to stick around for awhile. The Colts are hot and I’m taking them to cover at home.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (+3.5) – My pick is New England Patriots -3.5

The New England Patriots (3-2. 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road win over the Bills, which was a win against the +8 betting line.

The New Orleans Saints (1-4, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 26-14 home win over the Giants, which was a win against the +2.5 spread.

The Saints took advantage of the Giants five turnovers, and scored the final 23 points in the win. The Patriots aren’t going to be as sloppy, and I have the Saints right down there with the Titans and Giants among the worst teams in the entire league. I’m taking the Patriots to cover on the road.

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -1

The Seattle Seahawks (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-35 home loss to the Bucs, which failed to cover the -3.5 spread.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-28 home win against the Chiefs, which was a win against the +3.5 spread.

The Jaguars were clutch in the final seconds of the game, with QB Trevor Lawrence rushing in for a touchdown to take the lead. He needs to string together some good games, as he’s struggled to do that in his career. He would normally crap the bed after a performance like he had against the Chiefs. Seattle’s defense has been weak against the pass, and the Seahawks needs to rack up points to win games. I think the Jaguars defense will be the key, so I’m taking the Jags to cover at home.

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+4) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -4

The Los Angeles Chargers (3-2, 2-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-10 home loss to the Commanders, which failed to cover the -3 spread.

The Miami Dolphins (1-4, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road loss to the Panthers, which failed to cover the -1 spread.

Both of these teams have been devastated by injuries. The Chargers QB Omarion Hampton (ankle) suffered an injury and was placed on injured-reserve, so he will be out for a minimum of four games. The Chargers will need to rely on a group of practice squad talent. QB Justin Herbert does have the talent to carry the offense, and the Dolphins pass defense has been rough. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (+3) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys -3

The Dallas Cowboys (2-2-1, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 37-22 road win over the Jets, which covered the -1 spread.

The Carolina Panthers (2-3, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 home win over the Dolphins, which was a win against the +1 spread.

The Cowboys played with a lot of confidence after coming off a tie with the Packers. QB Dak Prescott and RB Javonte Williams appear to be a nice duo. It’s been a few years since he’s had a solid running back behind him. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover on the road.

Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (-4) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders -4

The Tennessee Titans (1-4, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 22-21 road win against the Cardinals, which was a win against the +7.5 spread.

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-4, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 40-6 road loss to the Colts, which was a loss against the +7.5 spread.

The Titans needed the Cardinals to completely collapse to get their first outright win of the season. The Raiders were on the polar opposite of that, as they were blown-out, and showed little-to-no signs of life. I still have the Titans ranked in the bottom-tier of teams in the league. There is still a little value left on the bone with the Raiders betting line, so I’m taking them to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3

The San Francisco 49ers (4-1, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 26-23 road win over the Rams, which was a win against the +8.5 spread.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-1, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-35 road win over the Seahawks, which was a win against the +3.5 spread.

The Niners will still need to rely on a backup quarterback with Brock Purdy’s toe still bothering him. The issue is backup QB Mac Jones, who has been great in relief, has a knee that is bothering him. He appears to be fine and will be ready to play on Sunday. I expect this game could be a shoot-out, and I’d favor Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and his receiving weapons in that battle. I’m taking Tampa Bay to cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-14) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals +14

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-3, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 37-24 home loss to the Lions, which was also a loss against the +10.5 betting line.

The Green Bay Packers (2-1-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, tied the Cowboys 40-40.

The Bengals made what they hope is a season-saving move by acquiring QB Joe Flacco from the Browns. It was clear that backup QB Jake Browning wasn’t ready for the moment. It was just last year when Flacco bounced-back with some clutch games for the Colts. He has a big arm, and the Bengals have field-stretching receiving talent. It’s so hard to cover a point spread this large in the NFL. I’m taking the points in this game.

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-2) – My pick is Detroit Lions +2

The Detroit Lions (4-1, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 37-24 road win over the Bengals, which also covered the -10.5 betting line.

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-28 comeback loss to the Jaguars, which failed to cover the -3.5 spread.

Both of these teams have played a tough schedule, but the Lions are playing much better at the moment. The Chiefs will need to rack up the points to keep up with the Lions on the scoreboard. I have to take the points in this game. I just think the Lions are possibly the best team in the league right now.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -4.5

The Buffalo Bills (4-1, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 home loss to the Patriots, which failed to cover the -8 spread.

The Atlanta Falcons (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Commanders 34-27.

As Falcons QB Michael Penix learns on the job, he’s going to be inconsistent, which is what you saw in their last game. He played well just a week after being benched for backup QB Kirk Cousins. They are going to be difficult to handicap this season. The Bills aren’t a great betting team, as they’ve fallen into the habit of what currently haunts the Chiefs. They tend to play down to their opponents, so spreads have been tight. I’m taking the Bills to cover on the road.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-4.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders -4.5

The Chicago Bears (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Raiders 25-24.

The Washington Commanders (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 27-10 road win over the Chargers, which was a win against the +3 spread.

This will be a fun match-up against two the most-hyped quarterbacks from last year’s rookie class. Washington has been very good at home this year, and I like their talent on both sides of the ball. The Bears are an improved team, but this is a tough match-up. I’m taking the Commanders to cover at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 39-37-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob