I went 3-0-1 against the spread during the Divisional Round.
We have two very different games on the schedule this week.
The NFC Championship have a new contender in the race with the Washington Commanders being a surprise opponent for the Philadelphia Eagles.
The AFC Championship had no surprises, as these two teams were favored to meet here since the start of the season.
We pick both NFL Conference Championship games against the spread (and point over/under totals) for the 2024-25 NFL weekend of playoff action.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -6 & OVER +/- 48
The Washington Commanders (14-5, 12-6-1 ATS) are coming off a surprising 45-31 road win over the #1 seed Lions. I assumed Detroit may have ‘bye week’ rust, but didn’t expect a double-digit loss. Washington’s quarterback pressure is elite and caused Lions QB Jared Goff to make too many mistakes. Also, it seems like no stage is too big for Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels.
The Philadelphia Eagles (16-3, 12-7 ATS) are coming off a 28-22 home win over the Rams. They played through sloppy weather. The kickers had issues connecting at medium length and beyond. Eagles kicker Jake Elliott missed two extra points that nearly became a factor in a late push from the Rams. The Eagles running game is elite and almost racked up 300 yards on the ground.
This is a matchup between two of the best betting teams in the league. The Commanders were able to play as underdogs for much of the year, as the Eagles saw bloated point spreads and still covered. We have seen a few rookie quarterbacks make their way to the conference championship games in the last decade. The road tends to end here for those young field generals. I think the Eagles running game will be difficult to handle and I’m taking Philly to cover at home (and I’m taking the OVER in the +/- 48 point total).
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills +1.5 & OVER +/- 48
The Buffalo Bills (15-4, 12-7 ATS) survived in a 27-25 thriller against the Baltimore Ravens. The usually sure-handed TE Mark Andrews let a ball bounce around in his hands and dropped a game-typing two-point conversion attempt. The Bills did have issues finding the endzone late in the game, but the Ravens pass defense is elite, so it wasn’t a huge surprise.
The Kansas City Chiefs (16-2, 8-10 ATS) are coming off a 23-14 home win over the Texans. The Chiefs were able to seal the game in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs have only done just enough to win games this year, and I worry it will bite them in the ass at some point. They’ve been a rough betting team all season, and once had a long stretch of loss against the spread.
The Bills have played like the best team in the league for a few months now. The Chiefs are still the defending champions, and come in with a better record. A lot of 50/50 balls have went their way on the road to that record. The Bills would have had the home-field advantage in this one had a few of those went the other way. I think Buffalo is the better overall team and have improved as the season progressed. I feel the Chiefs have just been the most underwhelming 15-2 team in the history of the NFL. I’m taking the points in this game (and I’m taking the OVER in the +/- 48 point total).
These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 155-119-8
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob