I went 3-3 against the spread during Wild Card Weekend.
The Wild Card games were a bit ho-hum, but we did get one or two solid games. I expect a lot more drama this week. I think both late games will deliver just that.
The Chiefs and Lions are coming off their well-deserved bye week, will they look rested or rusty?
Does rookie Washington QB Jayden Daniels have any more magic left in him?
We pick every NFL Divisional game against the spread and throw out a few upsets for the 2024-25 NFL weekend of playoff action.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My pick is Houston Texans +10
The Houston Texans (11-7, 8-8-2 ATS) were dominating in their 32-12 home win over the Chargers, which easily won against the +2.5 spread. They came back from being down 6-0 at the start of the second quarter. They finished the second quarter scoring ten unanswered points in the final 58 seconds of the half. The Texans defense secured the win by picking off Chargers QB Justin Herbert, and running one of those back for a score.
The Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 8-9 ATS) ended the regular season by resting anyone of importance, so they come into this game with two weeks rest. They had an abysmal betting stretch in the middle of the season. They did finish with three-straight covers in games with their starters.
These two teams met in Week 16 with the Chiefs winning 27-19 at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have been horrible covering any spread over a touchdown this year. They may turn it on in the playoffs and completely dominate teams, but we never saw that in the regular season. I have to take the points in this game.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-10) – My pick is Washington Commanders +10
The Washington Commanders (13-5, 11-6-1 ATS) secured the 23-20 comeback which won against the +3 spread. QB Jayden Daniels has shown veteran poise in close games this season. They’ve been able to rack up 30+ points in many games this year. They may need to do just that to keep up with the rest of the teams left in the NFC.
The Detroit Lions (15-2, 12-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and secured a must-win to clinch the NFC North in Week 18. The Lions are one of the most banged-up playoff teams, so the week of rest was definitely need. Also, Detroit is getting back RB David Montgomery (knee) from IR, who was not expected to be back this year when he was first injured.
I know everyone is drooling over the Ravens/Bills matchup, but this game is the one I’m looking forward to the most. I expected a high-scoring contest, and I expect the Commanders pass defense to limit Lions QB Jared Goff at times. I love the Lions this year, but double-digit point spreads in the Divisional Round is just nuts. I’m taking the points in this one.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -6
The Los Angeles Rams (11-7, 10-8 ATS) are coming off a 27-9 neutral site win over the Vikings, which won against the +2.5 spread. The Rams earned a home game by winning the NFC West, but due to the California wildfires, the game was played in Arizona. The Rams defense found their stride in the final weeks of the season. They have held opponents to single digits in their last four games they played their starters. They played some awful teams during that stretch, but it’s something of note.
The Philadelphia Eagles (15-3, 12-6 ATS) are coming off a 22-10 home win over the Packers, which covered the -5.5 spread. The Eagles played their to their strengths in the win. They ran the ball, controlled the clock and took some chances in their secondary on defense. The Packers made some plays late in the game to pull within a score, but the Eagles shut that down with a pair of scores.
I would love for the Rams to go on a big run, especially due to the wildfires, but I don’t see it happening. The Eagles are built for the postseason and I could see them going all the way. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+1) – My pick is Buffalo Bills +1
The Baltimore Ravens (13-5, 11-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-14 home playoff win over the Steelers, which covered the -9.5 spread. I thought the contest would be closer than that, but the Ravens put a stranglehold on the Steelers early, and it was never competitive. The Steelers couldn’t stop RB Derrick Henry, who has had some fantastic playoff performances in the past.
The Buffalo Bills (14-4, 11-7 ATS) are coming off a 31-7 home playoff win over the Broncos, which easily covered the -7.5 line. It was a tight game at halftime, but the Bills made some adjustments and QB Josh Allen began to cook. The Bills were arguably playing like the best team in the league to end the regular season, and they continued that in the Wild Card round.
These teams faced off in late-September, with the Ravens winning 35-10 at home. That was a lifetime ago in football years, so you can’t glean much from that game. Allen was still trying to get used to a nearly brand new group of receivers at that time. I believe this game will be tight and I have to go with the home team here.
These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 152-119-7
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob