I had a rough 5-8 record against the spread in Week 14.

I apologize for the abridged version of this week’s picks. I had a cold to start the week and I had to cram about three days worth of work in a day-and-a-half.

I was still able to give you guys some information about every game and explain my picks for the week.

We have two huge games this week. The Bills/Lions and Steelers/Eagles games could easily be Super Bowl previews.

Can the Panthers cover (as the favorite) against the Cowboys?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams +2.5

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-2.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins +2.5

The Miami Dolphins (6-7, 5-8 ATS) are coming off a 32-26 home win against the Jets, which failed to cover the -6.5 spread.

The Houston Texans (8-5, 5-6-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week. In their previous game, they won at Jacksonville 23-20.

The Texans have a solid pass defense, but they’ve been a poor home team this year. They have failed to cover in their last three home contests. I think the Dolphins will be able to move the ball with QB Tua Tagovailoa. I’m taking the points in this game.

Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints (+7.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints +7.5

The Washington Commanders  (8-5, 8-4-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week. In their previous game, they covered against the Titans 42-19.

The New Orleans Saints (5-8, 5-8 ATS) are coming off an ugly 14-11 road win against the Giants, which failed to cover the -5.5 spread.

The Commanders are in a lull right now, but I did like how they played against the Titans. Washington will have issues moving the ball against the Saints defense. I’m taking the points in this game.

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) – My pick is New York Jets -3.5

The New York Jets (3-10, 4-9 ATS) are coming off a 32-26 road loss to the Dolphins, but was a win against the +6.5 betting line.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10, 7-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 10-6 road win over the Titans, which also won against the +3 spread.

The Jaguars needed everything to go their way in the fourth quarter to inch out a win against the Titans. Backup QB Mac Jones had a rough outing with two picks, and will struggle against the Jets solid secondary. I’m taking the Jets to cover on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys +2.5

The Dallas Cowboys (5-8, 4-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 home loss against the Bengals, which was a loss against the +4.5 spread.

The Carolina Panthers (3-10, 6-7 ATS) are coming off a 22-16 road loss against the Eagles, but beat the +14 spread.

The Panthers are playing better, but maybe slow down the excessive love. They went from being a +14 underdog to being a favorite the next week? The Cowboys appeared to be on their way for a win or overtime last week against the Bengals. A single bonehead move after a punt block lost that game. I’m taking the points in this game.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (+16) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -16

The Baltimore Ravens (8-5, 6-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-19 home loss against the Eagles, which failed to cover the -3 spread.

The New York Giants (2-11, 3-9-1 ATS) are coming off a 14-11 home loss to the Saints, but was a win against the +5.5 betting line.

I believe this is the largest point spread of the year. I really want to pick against it, but the Ravens take care of business against bad teams. They just aren’t great against the spread against probable playoff-bound teams. I’m taking Baltimore to cover on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (+4) – My pick is Cleveland Browns +4

The Kansas City Chiefs (12-1, 5-8 ATS) are coming off a close 19-17 home win over the Chargers, which failed to cover the -4.5 spread.

The Cleveland Browns (3-10, 4-9 ATS) are coming off a 27-14 road loss to the Steelers, which was a loss against the +6.5 spread.

In their last seven games, the Chiefs are 0-7 against the spread. I thought they would snap the streak last week, but they were a couple points shy. The Browns tend to step up when they play good teams. Am I scared to bet on Browns QB Jameis Winston against the Chiefs? Yes, but I’m doing it. I’m taking the points in this one.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (+5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -5

The Cincinnati Bengals (5-8, 7-6 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 road win over the Cowboys, which covered the -4.5 line.

The Tennessee Titans (3-10, 2-11 ATS) are coming off a 10-6 home loss to the Jaguars, which failed to cover the -3 spread.

It’s almost impossible for the Bengals to sneak into the playoffs, but I think they are about to make a run to end the season. Bengals QB Joe Burrow wants his team to lock up his receiving weapons this offseason. They need to see something from them down the stretch. I’m taking Cincinnati to cover on the road.

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals -6

The New England Patriots (3-10, 5-7-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week. In their previous game, they lost to the Colts 25-24.

The Arizona Cardinals (6-7, 8-5 ATS) are coming off a 30-18 home loss to the Seahawks, which failed to cover the -3 line.

The Cardinals have been playing well, but ran into a Seahawks team that is currently peaking. I suspect they will rebound and play well against the Patriots. I’m taking Arizona to cover at home.

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-2.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills +2.5

The Buffalo Bills (10-3, 8-5 ATS) are coming off a 44-42 road loss to the Rams, which failed to cover the -3.5 spread.

The Detroit Lions (12-1, 9-4 ATS) are coming off a 34-31 home win against the Packers, but failed to cover the -3.5 spread.

I strongly believe this could be a Super Bowl preview. I think this line is right where it should be. The Rams may have exposed some weaknesses last week. I worry the Lions defense is too banged-up right now. I like some of their recent signings, but this greatly weighs into my pick. This will be a fun one to watch, but I’m taking the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3, 10-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-14 home win over the Browns, which covered the -6.5 spread.

The Philadelphia Eagles (11-2, 8-5 ATS) are coming off a 22-16 home win over the Panthers, but failed to cover the -14 line.

The Steelers defense comes in as the #7 defense, but I think they are underrated. They have an excellent front-seven and the Eagles will need to throw the ball if they hope to cover this spread. The Eagles may still get the outright win, but I’m taking the points in this one.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos -3.5

The Indianapolis Colts (6-7, 8-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week. In their previous game, they beat the Patriots 25-24.

The Denver Broncos (8-5, 10-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week. In their previous game, they beat the Browns 41-32.

I don’t like Colts QB Anthony Richardson’s prospects against the Broncos defense. They’ve done well against better quarterbacks and the Colts will need a dynamic offense to keep this one close. I’m taking the Broncos to cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6, 8-5 ATS) are coming off a 28-13 home win against the Raiders, which covered the -7 spread.

The Los Angeles Chargers (8-5, 9-4 ATS) are coming off a 19-17 road loss to the Chiefs, but won against the +4.5 line.

I worry the Buccaneers defense won’t be up to the task of stopping the Chargers. Also, the Chargers secondary will limit the best part of the Bucs offense. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks +2.5

The Green Bay packers (9-4, 7-6 ATS) are coming off a 34-31 road loss to the Lions, but won against the +3.5 spread.

The Seattle Seahawks (8-5, 6-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-18 road win over the Cardinals, which was a win against the +3 betting line.

I really like how well the Seahawks defense has rebounded since they made some personnel changed in early-November. They will be pressured all game by the Packers, but they should make some plays. I’m taking the points in this game.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -7

The Chicago Bears (4-9, 6-5-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-13 road loss to the Niners, which wasn’t close to the +3 spread.

The Minnesota Vikings (11-2, 8-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 42-21 home win against the Falcons, which covered the -6 spread.

The Bears barely lost to the Vikings just a couple weeks ago, but they looked really bad last week. The injury-riddled Niners looked like a playoff team after smoking them last week. I think the Vikings will cover this spread at home.

Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -4.5

The Atlanta Falcons (6-7, 5-8 ATS) are coming off a 42-21 blowout road loss to the Vikings, which wasn’t close to the +6 line.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-11, 5-8 ATS) are coming off a 28-13 road loss to the Buccaneers, which was loss against the +7 spread.

The Falcons have been dog dookie since early November, but I still like them over the Raiders. The Raiders need to rely on QB Desmond Ridder after losing QB Aidan O’Connell to a knee injury. He has the opportunity for a revenge game, but they know him just as much as he knows them. I think the Falcons will play well against him and cover on the road.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 112-90-6

Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob