I went 10-5 against the spread in Week 9.

I really needed a strong showing on Sunday after getting wrecked by my college football bets. I was able to recoup a large portion of my losses thanks to a three-team parlay.

Injuries have really hit some teams hard this season. It appears that the 49ers may be a near-full strength soon now that RB Christian McCaffrey (Achilles) returned to practice. On the other side of the coin, the Cowboys may lose QB Dake Prescott (hamstring) for a couple games.

Can the Lions continue their hot streak?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -6

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers (+5) – My pick is New York Giants -5

The New York Giants (2-7, 2-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-22 home loss to the Commanders, which was a narrow loss against the +4 betting line. They performed a bit better than expected. QB Daniel Jones found away to get the ball to rookie WR Malik Nabers again. He’s struggled to do just that since Nabers came back from injury. 

The Carolina Panthers (2-7, 2-7 ATS) are coming off a 23-22 home win over the Saints, which won against the +7 spread as the favorite. QB Bryce Young had a ‘fine’ outing, but it was really a meeting between two flawed teams. Young has continued to hurt RB Chuba Hubbard’s production, but Hubbard had a great second-half in the win.

This game is being played in Germany, so expect a sloppy performance from both teams. The Panthers have traded wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo in the last two weeks. The Panthers are depleting the cupboard for Young. I like what the Giants did on offense last week. I expect to see them feed Nabers again. I’m taking the Giants to cover in Europe.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Giants (and covered against the spread). The Steelers offense has gotten a shot in the arm since QB Russell Wilson made his season debut. He’s a stronger threat in the passing game and that is opening up his backfield talent to do damage as well.

The Washington Commanders (7-2, 7-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-22 road win over the Giants, which was a point shy of the -4 betting line. The Commanders continued their hot streak, and rookie QB Jayden Daniels was efficient in spite of an injury hampering him during the week. The Commanders pass defense needs to improve to continue to cover going forward.

The Commanders saw what happened last week and decided to make a big move. Washington was able to trade some picks to the Saints for CB Marshon Lattimore. This is a huge addition as they really needed improvement at that position. I’m not sold that it will be enough this week as the Steelers are coming off bye and have been playing great, especially in the passing game. I’m taking the points in this game.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-21 home win over the Cowboys, which covered the -3.5 spread. QB Kirk Cousins continued his bounce-back from his lackluster performance against the Seahawks a few weeks ago. He’s been outstanding since that game by throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott left the game with an injury, so the Falcons faced backup QB Cooper Rush for a large portion of this game.

The New Orleans Saints (2-7, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 23-22 road loss to the Panthers, which was a loss against the -7 spread as the favorite. RB Alvin Kamara had his best game since the opening weeks of the season. QB Derek Carr returned from injury, but he saw WR Chris Olave suffer a concussion and is expected to miss multiple weeks. They fired head coach Dennis Allen, who had seven outright losses in-a-row. The Saints are looking like a team ready to pack it in for the season.

The Saints made a white flag move at the deadline by trading defensive star CB Marcus Lattimore to the Commanders. It doesn’t give someone much confidence in them going forward, especially against the Falcons improved offense. I’m taking Atlanta to cover on the road.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers -5

The San Francisco 49ers (4-4 4-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Cowboys 30-24 (and covered the spread). The offense had one of their better well-rounded outputs of the year. They got some outstanding gains on the ground and TE George Kittle had one of his best games of the year. On defense, they made Cowboys QB Dak Prescott into a few too many forced throws.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 30-24 overtime road loss to the Chiefs, which was a win against the +8.5 spread. The Chiefs had a fifteen minute advantage in the possession clock, but the Bucs offense was still able to keep up with them. Kansas City had the ball for 3/4ths of the fourth quarter, but the Bucs still managed to score a touchdown to force overtime.

The Bucs are at the tail-end of a tough four-game stretch against probably playoff teams. They’ve saw their two-best receivers suffered long-term injuries and they are thin at that position. Also, there is a strong chance superstar RB Christian McCaffrey (Achilles tendonitis) will make his season debut in this game. I’m taking the Niners to cover on the road.

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-6) – My pick is Chicago Bears -6

The New England Patriots (2-7, 3-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 overtime road loss to the Titans, which was just shy of the +3.5 betting line. Rookie QB Drake Maye has a lot of upside, but with his youth comes inconsistency. They wouldn’t have made it to overtime without him, but would have benefitted from a smarter quarterback in overtime.

The Chicago Bears (4-4, 4-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 29-9 road loss against the Cardinals, which wasn’t close to the +2 betting line. The Bears haven’t been a good road team this year, but did oddly play really well on the neutral site in London. They had too many drives that ended with field goal attempts, which has been a trend this season. The Bears defense struggled to stop the Cardinals running game, which surprisingly amassed 213 yards.

I haven’t seen the same passing upside from Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams as I’ve seen with rookie quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Maye, but it could just be the offense and talent of his teammates. Both quarterbacks will be motivated to outplay the other, if not for their own ego. The Bears have outright won their last three traditional home game and covered all three of those games. I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -4

The Minnesota Vikings (6-2, 6-2 ATS) are coming off a 21-13 home win against the Colts, which covered the -5.5 betting line. QB Sam Bradford was able to take advantage of the talent disparity of the Colts cornerbacks and his elite wide receivers. He was also very sloppy by throwing two interceptions and lost a fumble in the win. This game shouldn’t have been this close.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 28-23 road loss to the Eagles, which won against the +7.5 point spread. It wasn’t a strong performance and not really as close as the final score would make you believe. QB Trevor Lawrence had a rough outing and his backfield didn’t give him much help. The Jaguars defense were able to make a few big plays, like running a fumble back for a touchdown. Unfortunately, no one will remember that as the Jaguars got ‘posterized’ by Eagles RB Saquon Barkley when he hurdled someone backwards.

The Jaguars are a solid betting team this year, but I need more than four points. They have covered in three-straight games, but this line is far too thin. I realize that Darnold made a lot of dumb plays last week. I expect Minnesota will have a more-balanced offensive gameplan this week. I don’t expect him to throw as much this week, so I’m taking the Vikings to cover on the road.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (+4) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -4

The Buffalo Bills (7-2, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 home win over the Dolphins, which was a loss against the -6 spread. It wasn’t a surprising outcome as I expected Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa to look more like himself with a game under his belt. The Bills respected Tua’s arm, as they didn’t stack the box like teams were doing when he was out. The Bills needed a big game from QB Josh Alle. He led his team down the field for a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.

The Indianapolis Colts (4-5, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 21-13 road loss against the Vikings, which was a loss against the +5.5 spread. It was their first loss against the spread since September 15th. It’s been a rather improbable run as they had a few wins by just half-point during that streak. The Colts named QB Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback, but he didn’t lead a single touchdown drive all game.

The Colts are a better team in the short-term with Flacco at quarterback, but the Colts are the definition of a below-average team. They’re not going to make the playoffs and will struggle against strong passing teams. The Bills made some improvements in that area of the game and expect them to throw with ease. I’m taking Buffalo to cover on the road.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-8) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -8

The Denver Broncos (5-4, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 41-10 road loss against the Ravens, which wasn’t close to the +9 betting line. The Broncos were able to rack up win against bad teams this season. It’s clear they don’t have the depth to compete against the top teams in the league. On paper, it looks like the Broncos have a great defense (currently ranked 6th). The strength of schedule should add an asterisk to that ranking.

The Kansas City Chiefs (8-0, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 30-24 overtime home win over the Buccaneers, which was a loss against the -8.5 betting line. The Chiefs have been notorious for ‘playing down’ to the level of their opponents. The Chiefs were just trying to drain the clock in the second-half. They didn’t expect the Bucs to be able to tie the game. They did just that in the final minutes in regulation.

I think the Chiefs are getting a discount with this betting line. The Chiefs should have a double-digit point spread to overcome, so I’d jump on this line while it’s only at eight points. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover at home.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -7.5

The Tennessee Titans (2-6, 1-7 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home win over the Patriots, which was a half-point shy of the betting line. The offense had one of their better performances this season. Their defense forced a few turnovers and was a lot of help. It’s clear that QB Mason Rudolph gives the Titans the better offensive squad. They haven’t shown that they are able to score points against good teams thus far.

The Los Angeles Chargers (5-3, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-10 road win over the Browns, which easily covered the -1.5 spread. The Chargers have performed well in back-to-back games for the first time since mid-September. I like that they are leaning more on what QB Justin Herbert does well, passing the ball. Teams clearly figured out the elite rushing attack they debuted early this season. Teams haven’t figured out how to beat their rushing attack.

The Chargers have shown the ability to cover spreads against below-average teams this season, especially since Herbert came back from injury. I don’t expect the Titans offense will be able to move the ball well on Sunday. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home. 

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-1) – My pick is New York Jets +1

The New York Jets (3-6, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 21-13 home win against the Texans, which covered the -2.5 betting line. It was the Jets first outright win (and cover) since September 19th. The Jets had a run of rather poor betting lines and would have been difficult to cover. A lot of suckers have lost a lot betting on QB Aaron Rodgers this season. I think the tide could start to turn a little, but the Jets are still considered a ‘public team’ regardless of their record. I think they will be a better betting team going forward with the addition of WR DaVante Adams.

The Arizona Cardinals (5-4, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 29-9 home win over the Cardinals, which easily covered the -2 betting line. They ran the ball straight at the Bears and ran for over 200 yards in the win. I didn’t expect that gameplan, and it surprised the Bears as well. On defense, they were able to do enough to neutralize rookie QB Caleb Williams.

I think we are going to see the Jets have a stronger second-half of the year. We all know the Jets have some freaky talent on defense, but they’ve been missing something on offense. Rodgers is particular about his receivers and will trust Adams more than the receivers he inherited. I expect the Jets secondary to smother Cardinals rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and still have the talent to force QB Kyler Murray to make bad throws. This game could be close, so I’m taking the point(s).

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys +7.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (6-2, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a 28-23 home win against the Jaguars, which was a little shy of the -7.5 betting line. RB Saquon Barkley had an outstanding first-half for the Eagles, but his team allowed the Jaguars to crawl back into this game in the third quarter. It didn’t help that the Jaguars returned his fumble for a touchdown. They were nearly caught taking their foot off the gas.

The Dallas Cowboys (3-5, 2-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-21 road loss to the Falcons, which was a loss against the +3.5 spread. It could be seen as a disastrous game as QB Dak Prescott (hamstring), who is expected to miss multiple games. WR CeeDee Lamb injured his shoulder in the loss as well, but he’s a machine and expected to play. The lone bright spot was the play of RB Rico Dowdle who made the Cowboys look like a competent running team.

The Cowboys haven’t been open about who will be starting at quarterback while Prescott is out. I personally expect longtime backup QB Cooper Rush to be under center, but there are rumors that it’s possible QB Trey Lance may leapfrog Rush. The Cowboys also added WR Jonathan Mingo from the Panthers. Eagles/Cowboys meeting are usually tight contests and the home team has outright won nine of the last ten meetings. Rush doesn’t get much respect, but he’s one of the better backups in the league. I’m taking the points in this game.

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (+3.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -3.5

The Detroit Lions (7-1, 7-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-14 road win over the Packers, which was a cover against the -2.5 spread. The Lions have now outright won (and covered) in six-straight games. I continue to believe that they are the best team in the league. They are clicking at all levels and didn’t even need a strong game from QB Jared Goff. His backfield really took over this game.

The Houston Texans (6-3, 3-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-13 road loss to the Jets, which was a loss against the +2.5 spread. QB CJ Stroud had his worst outing of the season, as he only completed 11 of 30 passing attempts. He did get some help from RB Joe Mixon, which I didn’t expect. They’ve been very hot and cold this year, and it appears that they are having a cold stretch at the moment.

The Lions may have looked more human than in any other recent game, but they are still the best team in the NFL. The Texans will win the horrible AFC South and could get hot and make a run in the playoffs, but this is their toughest test of the year. I just can’t bet against the Lions right now, especially with a line hovering around a field goal. I’m taking Detroit to cover on the road.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins +2.5

The Miami Dolphins (2-6, 2-6 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 road loss to the Bills, which was a win against the +6 point spread. I expected QB Tua Tagovailoa would look more like himself after a game under his belt. He had a solid outing and his backfield was able to move the ball better than expected. They didn’t get the outright win, but they will be more competitive going forward.

The Los Angeles Rams (4-4, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 26-20 overtime road win over the Seahawks, which covered the -1 betting line. They have now outright won three-straight games (2-1 ATS). Don’t look too deep in the Rams outcomes this season, as they are a completely different team with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. They didn’t have Nacua for long last game as he was ejected for throwing a punch. WR Demarcus Robinson had his best game of the season.

I’m going out on a limb here and think the Dolphins may be able to stymy the Rams passing attack. They have some talented players in their secondary and could help to limit points. I expect another leap forward for Tagovailoa, but even a slight increase in production would be a huge step. The Rams will allow too many big plays through the air. I’m taking the points in this game.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 77-56-5

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob