I went 9-4-1 against the spread in Week 6.

I thought I was going to end up with double-digit wins this weekend, but Jets QB Aaron Rodgers threw a pick in the final minutes of their last to the Bills.

We have an odd schedule of games with a early-Sunday game in London and two Monday Night Football games.

The best teams in the league are beginning to separate themselves from the pack. The Detroit Lions have looked like the best team in the NFC so far this month, but a lot can change moving forward.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season.

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (+2.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos -2.5

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5

The New England Patriots (1-5, 1-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-21 loss to the Texans, which was far from the +6.5 betting line as the underdog. Rookie QB Drake Maye started his first game, and like what I expected, gave the Patriots more pop on offense, but turn the ball over three times in the loss. I think they’ll get a semblance of a running game again once Maye shows that he can make some plays through the air.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 35-16 loss to the Bears in London, which wasn’t close to the -1 spread as the favorite. The game wasn’t very competitive. The Bears got out to a 21-3 lead and the Jaguars never got within single-digits again. I’m starting to worry about the Jaguars defense, as rookie Bears QB Caleb Williams had his most prolific game as a pro.

The Patriots offense was more dynamic last week, but literal rookie mistakes will be their downfall. As I said last week, the Patriots offense under QB Jacoby Brissett was ‘safe’, but would struggle to win games. The offense under Maye has the chance to win games, but mistakes will cause those to become few and far between. The Jaguars have been in London for awhile now, so I think they’ll bounce-back in their second game there. I’m taking the Jaguars to cover in England.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -3.5

The Miami Dolphins (2-3, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Patriots 15-10 on the road. The Dolphins continue to struggle without QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion). They started QB Tyler Huntley, tried to throw more with him, but he’s just not suited for this offense. They luckily got the win due to their increased running game and the Patriots stagnant offense.

The Indianapolis Colts (3-3, 5-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 road win over the Titans, which covers the +2.5 spread as the underdog. The Colts were once again without QB Anthony Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor in this game. Backup QB Joe Flacco wasn’t as sharp in this one, but he’s been great in relief. A mixture of a good Colts defensive gameplan,, and an inept Titans QB WIll Levis, helped get the Colts a win and cover on Sunday.

The Colts injury issues are still unresolved as of Wednesday night, so I’m going into this blind and with a lot of assumptions. I’m going to go with the idea that QB Joe Flacco will start once again, and RB Jonathan Taylor’s ankle may not be healthy by Sunday. Even if Richardson and Taylor sit, I still think the Colts can cover this game at home.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions +2.5

The Detroit Lions (4-1, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a dominant 47-9 road win over the Cowboys, which easily covered the -3.5 point spread as the favorite. The Lions came off their bye week on fire and lapped the Cowboys in this game. If Lions QB Jared Goff continues his strong play, he could win an MVP this year. They did suffer a large blow when DE Aidan Hutchinson broke his leg in the win, he is expected to miss the rest of the season and postseason.

The Minnesota Vikings (5-0, 5-0 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Jets 23-17 at home. The Vikings jumped out to a lead, but the Jets was closing the gap at the end. The Jets were careless with the ball a few too many times. Vikings QB Sam Darnold wasn’t as smooth as in his previous four games, but still did enough to stay perfect outright, and against the spread.

As much as I’ve enjoyed riding the Vikings bandwagon, I think the streak ends on Sunday. It’s hard to bet against Goff right now. He’s been fantastic in back-to-back games and I think he has a good match-up against the Vikings secondary. This game should be a close one, but I’m giving the Lions the edge, so I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-3) – My pick is Houston Texans +3

The Houston Texans (5-1, 2-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-21 road win over the Patriots, which easily covered the -6.5 spread as the favorite. It was a dominant performance on offense, and their defense forced Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye to turn the ball over three times. Also, the Texans rushing attack just drain the clock and racked up yards in the second-half. On defense, sophomore DE Will Anderson stood out with three sacks in the win.

The Green Bay Packers (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 34-13 home win over the Cardinals, which coasted over the -5.5 spread as the favorite. The Packers were dominant early with QB Jordan Love looking more healthy every week. He threw four touchdown passes, and got disgruntled WR Romeo Doubs involved early with two touchdown catches. The Cardinals were not efficient on offense, especially after rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion early in the game.

The Texans have only lost one game outright so far this year, and they are still underrated. Houston will be without leading receiver WR Nico Collins, but I still like the wide receiver duo of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Texans QB C.J. Stroud should be able to move the ball against the Packers pass defense, which aren’t playing as well as expected. I’m not sure if the Texans will win outright, but I’m definitely taking the points in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+3) – My pick is New York Giants +3

The Philadelphia Eagles (3-2, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 20-16 home win over the Browns, which fell short of the -9.5 point spread as the favorite. Both teams had their struggles on offense, especially when it came to the Eagles running game. RB Saquon Barkley and QB Jalen Hurts only combined for 80 yards on 32 attempts, which is far below expectations. On defense, the Eagles got after Browns QB Deshaun Watson and sacked him five times.

The New York Giants (2-4, 2-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 17-7 home loss to the Bengals, which was short of the +4 spread as the favorite. The game was closer than the final score would make you believe. It was a solid battle as I do believe the Bengals are a good team, but had some bad bounces this year. The Giants were still without star WR Malik Nabers (concussion) and still were within a field goal for most of the fourth quarter.

This pick is going against the grain, but I like the Giants in this match-up. Rookie WR Malik Nabers returned to practice this week and is expected to play this weekend. The Giants offense was really finding their stride with Nabers, so I’m expecting an uptick from them. Also, the Eagles have been playing down to their opponents, so I’m expecting a tight game, so give me the points.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-8) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -8

The Tennessee Titans (1-4, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home loss to the Colts, which failed to cover the -2.5 spread as the favorite. Titans QB WIll Levis had a rough outing, as he failed to eclipse 100 yards passing in the loss. A glimmer of hope in the loss was the play of RB Tony Pollard who nearly racked up 100 yards on the ground.

The Buffalo Bills (4-2, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road win over the Jets, which covered the -1 spread as the favorite. It was a battle and they needed a late interception to seal the win. Rookie RB Ray Davis was impressive and came out of nowhere. He is a powerful runner and has great hands. He should be a permanent fixture in the passing offense going forward. 

The Titans offense might be one of the worst in the league, so it’s hard to put a single dime on QB Will Levis right now. The Bills added WR Amari Cooper to add to QB Josh Allen’s cupboard. They needed a veteran in the wide receiver room, so I love that addition. I think the Bills should be double-digit favorites, so I really like this line, so give me the Bills to cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+6) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -6

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-4, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 17-7 road win over the Giants, which covered the -4 spread as the favorite. A tip of the hat needs to go out to the Giants defense for making the Bengals move the ball in less-traditional way. QB Joe Burrow had to score on a 47-yard scramble for the first score of the game. I would like to see the Bengals protect Burrow more going forward.

The Cleveland Browns (1-5, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 20-16 road loss to the Eagles, which was a win against the +9.5 spread. It was defensive battle, so neither team’s offense looked great last week. Browns QB Deshaun Watson is still on the hot seat as the offense hasn’t scored more than 18 points in a game all season. They need to take more chances, as everyone on the sideline will be looking for a new job soon if they keep losing at this pace.

The Browns have lost four-straight games outright, and they could be a few days away from blowing up this team with trades. If the Bengals win and cover this game, I expect some heads will roll in Cleveland, and that’s what I’m predicting to happen.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -2.5

The Seattle Seahawks (3-3, 1-4-1 ATS) are coming off 36-24 home loss to the Niners, which failed to cover the +3.5 spread as the underdog. Seattle got off to a rough start, but did close to gap in the second-half. They were within five points in the final two minutes of the game, but the Niners were able to seal the win with a late touchdown. QB Geno Smith is a solid quarterback if you need to move the ball in a hurry, but their mediocre running game is a real downer.

The Atlanta Falcons (4-2, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 38-20 road win over the Panthers, which easily covered the -6 spread as the favorite. The game was close in the first-half, but the Falcons made adjustments and dominated the clock in the second-half, and had a lot of success with their two-head backfield. The Falcons offense is much improved and looking more dynamic every week.

The Seahawks currently have the #1 passing offense in the NFL, but they will need more than that to beat the Falcons. This could be a high-scoring contest, but the Falcons have shown they can move the ball on any down. The Seahawks defense will have issues on Sunday. I’m taking the Falcons to cover at home.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders (-8) – My pick is Washington Commanders -8

The Carolina Panthers (1-5, 1-5 ATS) are coming off a 38-20 home loss to the Falcons, which fell short of the +6 point spread as the underdog. QB Andy Dalton hasn’t been able to replicate the same production he had in his first start for the Panthers. He’s turning over the ball and hasn’t been as efficient. That being said, RB Chuba Hubbard has strung together many solid outings and is playing his best with Dalton under center.

The Washington Commanders (4-2, 4-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-23 road loss to the Ravens, which was a push against the spread. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels continues to impress, but the Ravens duo of QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry was too much for the Commanders defense. Washington’s offense was one-dimensional as they couldn’t do anything on the ground. 

I’ve been speaking the praises of Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels since Week 2, and he will play a huge role in this game. The Panthers have been smoked in two of their three road games, and they are trending down. I think it may be time for the Panthers to give the keys back to QB Bryce Young soon. I’m taking the Commanders to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -6.5

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-4, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 32-13 home loss to the Steelers, which wasn’t close to the +3.5 betting line. QB Aidan O’Connell was average in his first official start as the starting quarterback. He didn’t get any help from his backfield. The Steelers defense is still among the best in the NFL, so the Raiders needed their own defense to pick up the slack. It was not a great outing overall, but I still think O’Connell is the better option at quarterback.

The Los Angeles Rams (1-4, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they lost at home to the Packers 24-19. The Rams are still trying to fill the gaping hole that injured wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua left behind. QB Matthew Stafford is using a mixture of WR Tutu Atwell, WR Jordan Whittington and TE Colby Parkinson. He doesn’t have the same chemistry, so his completion percentage took a hit.

The Raiders are already selling at the trade deadline, and they could be shipping more players out after this game. I’m not a big fan of the Rams right now, but they are coming off a their bye week and many Raiders are just broken. I’m taking the Rams to cover at home.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-1) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs +1

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Saints 26-13 at home. The Chiefs offense is getting better every week, as they are feeding TE Travis Kelce more and RB Kareem Hunt is a Swiss Army knife at his position. On defense, it was clear that they were focused on taking away Saints RB Alvin Kamara, and they achieved their goal.

The San Francisco 49ers (3-3, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 36-24 road win over the Seahawks, which covered the -3.5 spread as the favorite. The Niners kicked off the game with four unanswered scores and got out to a 16-3 lead at the half. After an early touchdown in the second-half, the Seahawks began to inch away at the lead. The Niners were able to keep pace with 483 total yards in the win.

If both teams were at full-strength, I think the Niners would have the edge, but without RB Christian McCaffrey, I’d have to get the edge to the Chiefs. I just love the way they played last week against the Saints and the addition of RB Kareem Hunt is an underrated move. This game will most likely come down to the final possession, but I think the Chiefs will show up big in this marquee game, so give me the point.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) – My pick is New York Jets -1.5

The New York Jets (2-4, 2-4 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 home loss to the Bills, which was two point shy of the +1 betting line. The offense looked better than I expected, but QB Aaron Rodgers tried to do too much at the end of the game and threw a bad ball to seal the loss. RB Breece Hall had his best game of the year, as he got nearly all the carries for the Jets. On defense, they surprisingly didn’t force a single turnover.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 32-13 road win over the Raiders, which easily covered the -3.5 spread as the favorite. If the Steelers can convert some of these field goals into touchdowns, their offense would rank among the top dozen teams in the league. It was nice to see them score 32 points, which is their high of the year at this point. I think you’re going to see a few more 30-point games in the coming weeks (unsure about this coming week though).

The Jets will be improved with new addition WR DaVante Adams, but I think the strength of schedule have them prepared for this game. On paper, the Steelers should be the clear favorite in this game, but the Jets have played a tougher schedule. They’ve played the Vikings and Bills in their previous two games and they’ve came down to the final possession. The Jets will come into this game with a lot of confidence. I’m taking the Jets to cover on the road.

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-23 home win over the Commanders, which was a push against the spread. The Ravens had their running game on full display with RB Derrick Henry continuing to impress in Baltimore, and QB Lamar Jackson extending plays with his legs. On defense, the Ravens shut their running game down and forced the rookie QB into running a one-dimensional offense.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a 51-27 road win over the Saints, which easily covered the -3.5 as the road favorite. The Bucs offense was humming, but QB Baker Mayfield did throw three picks, which allowed the Saints to stay in this game for awhile. They also got a productive running game going for a change. Rookie RB Bucky Irving had one of his better games, but RB Sean Tucker came out of nowhere for a 136-yard performance.

The Bucs offense can put up a lot of points, but their defense is going to struggle against the Ravens running game. I could see the Ravens controlling the clock and really choking the Bucs out of this game. I like the Bucs a lot, but the Ravens are a bad matchup, so I’m taking Baltimore to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

The Los Angeles Chargers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 23-16 road win over the Broncos, which covered the -3 point spread. The Chargers looked to have the game in-hand with a 23-0 lead going into the fourth quarter, but they allowed the Broncos to get within a touchdown in the final minute of the game. QB Justin Herbert appears to be healthy from the ankle injury that limited him in late-September. 

The Arizona Cardinals (2-4, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a disappointing 34-13 road loss to the Packers, which failed to cover the +5.5 spread as the underdog). Last week’s game got off to a bad start as rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion in the second quarter. Their defense had no answer for the Packers passing game. They appear to have thrown in the towel late in the third quarter.

It’s currently unknown if WR Marvin Harrison Jr. will be able to play on Monday night, but unless he can play defense and stop the run, he won’t be much of a factor. I expect the Chargers will spam the ball to RB J.K. Dobbins and other running backs. The Cardinals have been awful against the run this year, so I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 49-38-5

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob/