I went 7-9 against the spread in Week 4.

I had a rough start to my NFL bets as I was 2-8 after the early game session on Sunday. Thankfully, I nearly ran perfect with the remainder of the games to save my bankroll.

We have some fun games on the schedule with Baltimore at Cincinnati and Buffalo at Houston are the marquee games of the week. Those almost makes up for forcing a part of the country to sit through Las Vegas at Denver (ugh!).

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -2.5

The New York Jets (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a disappointing 10-9 home loss to the Broncos, which was far away from the point spread as the home favorite. It was an ugly game from both offenses. QB Aaron Rodgers was inaccurate and was forcing too many passes in the second-half. He got very little help from his running game.

The Minnesota Vikings (4-0, 4-0 ATS) are coming off a 31-29 road win over the Packers, which was a win against the spread as a 2.5 underdog. The Vikings got out to a 28-0 lead, and returning Packers QB Jordan Love was rusty. He played better in the second-half, but the Vikings defense helped grow too large of a lead. QB Sam Darnold continues to impress in Minnesota.

The Vikings have too much receiving talent to fall victim to the Jets solid pass defense. I was officially a Darnold believer after his third game and benefitted from betting on him against the Packers. I think he will extend his winning streak and cover at home against the Jets.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1) – My pick is New England Patriots -1

The Miami Dolphins (1-3, 0-4 ATS) are coming off a 31-12 home loss to the Titans, which was far from the point spread as the favorite. Miami continues to struggle without star QB Tua Tagovailoa. Third-string QB Tyler Huntley was ‘fine’, but this offense isn’t made for a run-first quarterback. It hurts their natural running game and takes away WR Tyreek Hill.

The New England Patriots (1-3, 1-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-13 road loss to the Niners, which was a touchdown shy of the point spread as the underdog. QB Jacoby Brissett isn’t the right quarterback for this team. He can win as a quarterback for team with a solid backfield and good defense. The Patriots defensive unit took a step back from last season.

This may be an ugly game to watch, and if possible, I’d avoid it like the plague. I usually go with the points in ugly games like these, but since it’s a single point, give me the home team to cover.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-4) – My pick is Carolina Panthers +4

The Carolina Panthers (1-3, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 34-24 home loss to the Bengals, which was 5.5 points shy of the spread as the underdog. QB Andy Dalton didn’t have the same level of success in his second game as the short-term starter. He was trying to get the ball to WR DIontae Johnson as the same level as last week, but only connected on seven of 13 attempts. The good news is that RB Chuba Hubbard had another solid outing.

The Chicago Bears (2-2, 2-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-18 home win over the Rams, which was a field goal over the spread as the favorite. The Rams showed up to a field-goal kicking contest, but the Bears started to score touchdowns in the second-half. I’m not sure how big of a leap we will see from QB Caleb Williams this season, but RB D’Andre Swift was a smart signing to help.

The Panthers may have lost against the Bengals, but I still think they are an above average team with QB Andy Dalton. I fear people are jumping off the Panthers small band-raft after a loss to a very good Bengals team. I’m going to hold strong on the Panthers, so I’m taking the points.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts +3

The Indianapolis Colts (2-2, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 home win over the Steelers, which was a win against the spread as the underdog. The Colts were happy with the outright win, but they did lose QB Anthony Richardson (hip) to an injury. It doesn’t appear to be serious, but enough for him to miss multiple practices. This is the exact reason why they splurged to bring in veteran QB Joe Flacco.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 24-20 road loss to the Texans, which was barely a win against the spread as the underdog. The Jaguars bounced-back from an embarrassing outing on Monday Night Football a week ago. The offense still feels broken, but I think the passing game will look like this until they sign a star veteran receiver to lineup opposite rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr..

It’s currently unknown if Richardson will be healthy enough to play, so I’m betting on the Colts being cautious. I’m expecting Flacco to start, and I think they are currently a better team with him under center. I’m taking the points in this game.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+1) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -1

The Buffalo Bills (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 35-10 road loss to the Ravens, which was far from the +2.5 point spread. It was clear that the Bills are lean at receiver after losing WR Stefon Diggs and others, but it was magnified in this loss. The Bills offense was in rough shape against the Ravens.

The Houston Texans (3-1, 0-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-20 home win over the Jaguars, which was a 1.5-point shy of the spread. Houston continues to be a good, overrated team. They get outright wins, but fall short of point spreads. They moved the ball well, but too many drives ended without points.

The Bills and Texans have both been destroyed by the Ravens this calendar year (albeit Houston’s was in the playoffs). I believe both are still good teams, and the Bills had a very bad week. The Texans pass defense isn’t as stout and it should be a tight contest, but I’m taking the Bills to cover on the road.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -2.5

The Baltimore Ravens (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 35-10 home win over the Bills, which easily won against the spread. The Ravens defense held up while the offense spammed the ball to RB Derrick Henry, who gained 199 yards on the ground and two combined touchdowns. The Ravens pass defense was fantastic, as they held the Bills wideouts to pedestrian numbers.

The Cincinnati Bengals (1-3, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 34-24 road win over the Panthers, which covered the spread as the road favorite. They were able to stymy former QB Andy Dalton, and on offense, they were able to run the ball well, which was important to see going forward. It was important to see them hold onto the win, as they have struggled in the fourth quarter on defense.

The Bengals are better than their record suggests, but so are the Ravens. They’ve both been hampered by some rough fourth quarters. This game should be close and will come down to the last few possessions. I’m just all-in on the Ravens right now, so I’m taking them to cover on the road.

Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3) – My pick is Washington Commanders -3

The Cleveland Browns (1-3, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 20-16 road loss against the Raiders, which was a 1.5-point shy of the spread. The Browns got out to a double-digit lead in the first quarter, but didn’t score again until the fourth. They gave the Raiders positive field position too many times. QB Deshaun Watson continues to underwhelm everyone.

The Washington Commanders (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 42-14 road win over the Cardinals, which easily covered against the spread as the underdog. I’ve been banging the drum that Jayden Daniels is the best rookie quarterback in this class, and he is proving me correct. He’s accurate and has been smart with the ball. It’s great that he has a receiver like WR Terry McLaurin to help him develop.

It’s been a long time since I’ve put a single penny on the Commanders as the favorite. QB Daniels has just impressed me so much and he’s making everyone better on that side of the ball. The Browns are so underwhelming and won’t be able to keep up with Washington. I’m taking the Commanders to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders +2.5

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 20-16 home win against the Browns, which won against the spread as the +2.5 underdog. It was a rather ugly game to watch as it was sloppy on both sides. It seems like the Raiders tried to handcuff QB Gardner Minshew, but they did come into this game short-handed due to injuries.

The Denver Broncos (2-2, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 10-9 road win over the Jets, which easily won against the spread as the underdog. This was another ugly game to watch, but a lot of this was due to strong defenses. Rookie QB Bo Nix continues to look like he isn’t ready for the NFL. The Broncos defense will always need to overdeliver for their team to have a shot for an outright win.

The Broncos may be 3-1 against the spread this year, but my wallet will hide from me if I start to place a bet on them as a betting line favorite. I understand the Raiders lost to the Panthers last month, and that knocks them down a dozen spots on many bettors’ rankings, but they are still a decent team. I’m taking the points in this game.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers -7.5

The Arizona Cardinals (1-3, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 42-14 home loss to the Commanders, was far from the spread as the favorite. I’ve always thought the Cardinals pass defense was in bad shape, but it wasn’t a huge issue until last week. Washington’s rookie quarterback carved them up. The Cardinals offense longest play was only 22 yards, and they just couldn’t stretch the field.

The San Francisco 49ers (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 30-13 home win over the Patriots, which covered the spread as the favorite. The Niners continue to play at a high-level regardless of their own injury issues. They’ve played a tough schedule thus far. It doesn’t appear that they will get RB Christian McCaffrey (double Achilles tendonitis) back anytime soon, but RB Jordan Mason has been pretty darn good. They miss CMC’s passing game threat, but Mason is filling in as much as he can.

I was warming up to the Cardinals after Week 2, but their struggle against the Commanders was eye-opening. The Niners have four-straight double-digit wins over the Cardinals, and I believe it will happen again on Sunday, so I’m taking the 49ers tp cover.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) – My pick is New York Giants +6.5

The New York Giants (1-3, 1-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-15 home loss to the Cowboys, which was a push against the spread. The NFC East doesn’t appear to be as strong as in previous years, and this game proves just that. The offenses are mostly one-dimensional, and neither the Cowboys or Giants have much of a running game. The Giants just ended drives with field goals and the Cowboys scored a couple touchdowns. Also, rookie WR Malik Nabers continues to look amazing.

The Seattle Seahawks (3-1, 1-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 42-29 road loss to the Lions, which fell short of the +4 line as the underdog. The Seahawks offense played pretty darn well, but they had zero answer for the Lions passing offense. Lions QB Jared Goff was 18 for 18 on the day with almost 300 yards (and even caught a touchdown pass). QB Geno Smith’s solid outing is just a footnote compared to that.

I’m sure the Seahawks are the better team, but I think the Giants passing game will cause issues for the Seahawks defense. Giants are going to win some games against the spread, in an ugly way. I think Seattle will win outright, but the Giants sneak in under the spread, so I’m taking the points.

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (+3) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -3

The Green Bay Packers (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Vikings, which was a few points short of the spread as the -2.5 favorite. The Packers fell behind fast and QB Jordan Love just wasn’t ready, or healthy enough, to finish off the comeback. It might be another week before Love looks healthy. He was trying to do too much early in the game, but did play better towards the end.

The Los Angeles Rams (1-3, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 24-18 road loss to the Bears, which fell a field goal short of the +3 spread as the underdog. They settled for too many field goals, as they continue to struggle in the red zone without their injured wide receivers. I thought their defense would confuse Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams more often, but he didn’t commit a turnover.

The Packers finished last week’s game with a strong effort, but couldn’t overcome their early blunders. I think the Rams won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard without their injured receivers. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Dallas Cowboys (2-2, 1-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-15 road win over the Giants, which was a push against the spread. It’s clear the Cowboys will need their passing game to carry the water on offense. Their ground game is pathetic right now, and RB Ezekiel Elliott has no gas left in his tank. On defense, they stopped the Giants from getting into the end zone, but still allowed five field goals.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road loss to the Colts, which failed against the spread as the -2.5 favorite. QB Justin Fields played pretty darn well, and had Colts QB Anthony Richardson not been injured, they may have won this game outright. Colts backup QB Joe Flacco was smart with the ball and continued drives. I was somewhat surprised the Steelers defense didn’t force a turnover.

The Cowboys offense is a one-trick pony, and that trick isn’t that great. I believe the Steelers defense will have an answer for the Cowboys passing game. The Steelers will just need to be smart with the ball on offense. I think this will happen and Pittsburgh will cover at home.

New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -5

The New Orleans Saints (2-2, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-24 road loss to the Falcons, which was a half-point over the +2.5 spread as the underdog. QB Derek Carr played amazing through the first three games, but teams have appeared to have figured him out. I think the Saints offense is only as good as the health of RB Alvin Kamara. He came into this game a little banged up, and the offense looked a step slower than usual.

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 17-10 road win over the Chargers, which was a half-point over the -6.5 as the favorite. The Chiefs were down 10-0 at the end of the first quarter, and they didn’t allow another points. It’s clear that the running back situation is in better shape with RBs Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine getting more reps in practice. It was also nice to see them feed TE Travis Kelce more last week.

The Saints are still living off their early season blowouts, but they’ve fallen back down to Earth. The Chiefs have a history of playing ‘down to the level of their opponents’, but they’ve been good about that so far this year. I like how KC’s offense looked last week, even if they didn’t put up a lot of points. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on Monday Night Football.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 33-28-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob