I went 8-7-1 against the spread in Week 2.

After a big Week 1, my picks struggled in the late afternoon games on Sunday. I did manage to hit on one of my parlays, so I was still in the black for the week.

The Minnesota Vikings are currently undefeated and host the Houston Texans this Sunday. Can they continue to buck the trend and start the year 3-0 with Sam freakin’ Darnold at quarterback?

How will Panthers QB Andy Dalton fare against the Raiders pass rush?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6.5) – My pick is New England Patriots +6.5

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5

The Denver Broncos (0-2, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 13-6 home loss to the Steelers, which was a loss against the spread as well. It was a rather ugly game all around. The Broncos were unable to help rookie QB Bo Nix on the ground, so he forced some passes and threw two interceptions. He tried to get TE Greg Dulcich involved more, but the Steelers linebackers were too good.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 20-16 road win over the Lions, which easily cover the spread as the underdogs. QB Baker Mayfield has been very good, but he needs his backfield to step up. His running backs yards per attempt is atrocious. Mayfield led the team in rushing with just 34 yards on five attempts. Tampa Bay’s defense is underrated right now.

The Broncos have depth problems on both sides of the ball, which will be a factor in every game this season. The Bucs are playing really well and I expect QB Baker Mayfield will have another big game, so I’m taking Tampa Bay to cover at home.

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) – My pick is Houston Texans -2.5

The Houston Texans (2-0, 0-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 19-13 home win over the Bears, which was a push against the spread. Houston had too many drives end with field goal attempts. Had they faced a top-tier team, this would have been a loss. The Texans were able to frighten Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams, as they sacked him seven times and forced two interceptions.

The Minnesota Vikings (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a surprising 23-17 home win over the 49ers, which covered the spread easily as the underdog. They’ve been great against the spread as their stock was low with QB Sam Darnold named the starter. He’s been pretty good so far, as he’s been smart to spam the ball WR Justin Jefferson. His backfield of RBs Ty Chandler and Aaron Jones are playing well in their roles.

I believe the outcome of this game will be close to this betting line. The Texans are underperforming right now, because they need to get into the end zone more. It’s clear the Vikings are better than many thought they were going into the season. I think the addition of WR Stefon Diggs will be key for the Texans. I am expecting a big week from him and I’m taking the Texans to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers +1.5

The Los Angeles Chargers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 26-3 road win over the Panthers, which easily covered the spread. The Chargers defense made Panthers QB look like he wasn’t ready for the NFL, as he only threw for 84 yards with an interceptions. The Chargers backfield has been the MVPs so far this season. New head coach Jim Harbaugh brought a renewed focus on running the ball and RB J.K. Dobbins has been a beast.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0, 2-0 ATS) are coming off a 13-6 road win over the Broncos, which cover the spread. They’ve been leaning on their defense as their offense is clearly their weakest unit. QB Justin Fields has been good enough to get back-to-back wins, but he hasn’t impressed anyone either. He needs to continue to win to play his way into a permanent starting role and leapfrog injured QB Russell Wilson.

The Chargers currently don’t know how well QB Justin Herbert (ankle) can perform with his injury. If this was last season’s offense, it would have been rough, but I like the Chargers backfield enough to think they can overcome Herbert’s ailment. I’m taking the points in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-2.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 22-21 home loss to the Falcons, which was nearly a touchdown shy of the betting line. Their running game was strong and QB Jalen Hurts had a good outing, but Falcons QB Kirk Cousins was a more effective quarterback on Monday night. Philly didn’t give up many big plays, but Atlanta was consistent and moved the ball down the field.

The New Orleans Saints (2-0, 2-0 ATS) is coming off a 44-19 road win over the Cowboys, which easily covered the point spread as the underdog. QB Derek Carr was undervalued going into this season, and the addition of a healthy RB Alvin Kamara helps a lot. The Saints defense needs a lot of love so far, as the addition of DE Chase Young has helped get pressure on quarterbacks.

The Eagles defense has been bad so far this year. They are currently ranked 30th overall and the Saints are coming off an unbelievable performance against the Cowboys. I know Philly is a ‘sexy’ team, but the Saints are playing too well to bet against, so I’m taking New Orleans to cover at home.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-3) – My pick is Green Bay Packers +3

The Green Bay Packers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 16-10 home win over the Colts, which easily covered the spread as the underdog. It was going to be an interesting game for the Packers, regardless of the outcome. Backup QB Malik Willis started in place of injured QB Jordan Love, and he was fine. He completed 12 of 14 attempts for 122 yards and a touchdown. RB Josh Jacobs put the team on his back carrying the ball 32 times for 151 yards in the win. The defense stepped up and made sophomore Colts QB Anthony Richardson make too many errors.

The Tennessee Titans (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 24-17 home loss to the Jets, which was a field goal short of the betting line. QB Will Levis tried too make something out of nothing and coughed up the ball in one of the worst turnovers of the young season. The passing game hasn’t been great, and teams have made WR DeAndre Hopkins a non-factor in either game. On defense, I like their pass defense, but someone other than LB Harold Landry needs to help get after the quarterback

I’m not a fan of Packers QB Malik Willis, but I believe their secondary will force Titans into some mistakes. I’m sure he is coming into this game with a chip on his shoulder after being traded for peanuts this offseason. I’m taking the points in this game.

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6) – My pick is Cleveland Browns -6

The New York Giants (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 21-18 road loss to Washington, which was a few points short of the point spread. The offense was much better in Week 2 as QB Daniel Jones spammed the ball to rookie WR Malik Nabers with success. He threw the ball at him 18 times for ten receptions, 127 yards and a touchdown. Also, RB Devin Singletary looked more comfortable in the offense as well. On defense, I worry that unit may be the reason they lose double-digit games this year.

The Cleveland Browns (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 18-13 road win over the Jaguars, which covered the spread by a couple points. QB Deshaun Watson had another subpar game, but he was bailed out by his defense. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence didn’t even complete half of his 30 passing attempts in the loss. Watson tried to find WR Amari Cooper eight times, but only completed three of those for just eleven yards.

As much as I dislike the Browns right now, it’s hard to bet on the Giants on the road. Cleveland’s defense should do a good enough job to limit rookie WR Nabers. Also, Browns QB Deshaun Watson could have his best game of the year against the Giants secondary. I’m taking the Browns to cover at home.

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -1

The Chicago Bears (1-1, 1-0-1 ATS) are coming off a 19-13 road loss to the Texans, which was a push against the spread. Houston should have smoked the Bears last week, but the Texans couldn’t move the ball on their side of the field, and relied on field goals. Honestly, the Bears were lucky this was within shooting distance in the fourth quarter. Rookie QB Caleb Williams will need to make smarter decisions if the Bears hope to be a playoff team.

The Indianapolis Colts (0-2, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 16-10 road loss to the Packers, which failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Sophomore QB Anthony Richardson had a rough outing and he needs to find a way to get his playmakers the ball. WR Michael Pittman had seven balls in his direction, but only caught three for 21 yards. The Colts defense has been okay so far, but their lack of depth at cornerback could bite them in the butt at some point.

This is a tough one, but I think the Colts will bounce-back after a couple underwhelming performances by QB Anthony Richardson. They will come into this game with a simplified offense and I expect RB Jonathan Taylor to have a bigger role. I’m taking the Colts to cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -4.5

The Miami Dolphins (1-1, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-10 home loss to the Bills, which was far from the betting line. QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion and will be out for the foreseeable future. Backup QB Skylar Thompson just isn’t at his level, and might be one of the worst backups in the league. RB De’Von Achane had a solid game, but the game was lost when Tua was knocked out. Their defense needs to step up in Tua’s absense.

The Seattle Seahawks (2-0, 0-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road win over the Patriots, which was a push versus the betting line. I was impressed with QB Geno Smith with throwing over 300 yards targeting WRs DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba a total of 30 times combined. If the opposing team can’t stop it, why stray away from what works?

The Dolphins are a completely different team without QB Tagovailoa. I watched enough of his backup in college to know that he’s a second-tier NFL backup QB, at best. I’m expecting Seattle will keep throwing to their talented wide receivers and extend a lead, so I’m taking them to cover at home.

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders -5.5

The Carolina Panthers (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 26-3 home loss to the Chargers, which wasn’t close to covering the spread. Sophomore QB Bryce Young has been bad in his first two games, so the team is benching him in favor of journeyman QB Andy Dalton. The offense should be better in the short-term, but this could stymy Young’s confidence going forward. On the bright side, RB Chuba Hubbard played well in the loss.

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-23 road win over the Ravens, which easily covered the spread as the underdog. The Raiders scored 13 unanswered points in the final nine minutes of the game. Their running game has been rough this year, but QB Gardnew Minshew has a big arm and knows if he can get the ball to WR DaVante Adams and rookie TE Brock Bowers, he has a shot of winning any game.

The Panthers will instantly be a better offensive team with Dalton under center, but Raiders DE Maxx Crosby could have Dalton making some poor choices. I’m taking the Raiders to cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (+1) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -1

The Baltimore Ravens (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 26-23 home loss to the Raiders, which wasn’t close to the betting line as the favorites. It’s their second-straight close, that went down to the final minute of the game. They just had some balls that didn’t go their way. Their defense gave up too many passing yards, but did get good pressure on Raiders QB Gardner Minshew. QB Lamar Jackson was also trying to do too much and made a few bad decisions. They’ve had bad fourth quarters in back-to-back games.

The Dallas Cowboys (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 44-19 home loss to the Saints, which wasn’t close to the betting line as the favorite. The Cowboys fell down 35-13 in the final minute of the first-half. Both teams defense made adjustments and points were hard to come by in the second-half. The Cowboys lack of ground game is going to bite them in the ass going forward. You can’t beat good teams if you’re completely one-dimensional on offense. It could be difficult for the Cowboys to come back from a double-digit deficit if defenses can just play nickel and dime defenses.

The Cowboys are too much of a one-dimensional team to beat a team as good as the Ravens. I know Baltimore’s defense, especially in the fourth quarter, has left a lot to the imagination, but they should fare betting against the Cowboys. I’m taking the Ravens to cover on the road.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams +7.5

The San Francisco 49ers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-17 road loss to the Vikings, which wasn’t close to the spread as the favorite. The Niners gave up a few too many big plays, as the 97-yard touchdown reception by WR Justin Jefferson was especially demoralizing. The Vikings were able to run the ball much better after that as the Niners were spooked by the long ball. The Niners lost WR Deebo Samuel late in the game to a calf injury, which will keep him out a couple weeks.

The Los Angeles Rams (0-2, 0-2 ATS) are coming off a 41-10 road loss to the Cardinals, which was 30 points off of the betting line. The Rams were punched in their mouths early and they couldn’t climb out of the 21-0 hole early in the second quarter. Star WR Cooper Kupp injured his ankle in the loss and will be put on the shelf with fellow wide receiver Puka Nacua. The Rams will need to have ‘the next man up’ take on a huge role in the passing game.

There are a ridiculous amount of offensive stars, on both teams, that will not be able to play in this game. The Niners are the better overall team, but due to the injuries, I don’t think this will be a high-scoring game, so I’m taking the points in this game.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+3) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals +3

The Detroit Lions (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-16 home loss to the Bucs, which was a loss against the spread as the favorite. It was an entertaining game, but the Lions had too many drives end with field goals or interceptions. The Bucs needed a final-minute touchdown to pull ahead for the win. On defense, DE Aidan Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks and had Bucs struggled to run the ball. They can take away a lot of positives in the close loss.

The Arizona Cardinals (1-1, 2-0 ATS) are coming off an impressive 41-10 home win over the Rams, which easily covered the spread. It was clear the Cardinals wanted to get rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. involved early and he scored two touchdowns in the first quarter. The defense made an adjustment in their coverage and it opened up the running game and underneath passes to TE Trey McBride.

The Cardinals are currently the most underrated team in the NFL, and they still can’t get much respect against a top team. I’m expecting a high-scoring game on Sunday with the Cardinals possibly winning outright, so I’m taking the points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-25 home win over the Bengals, which was 5.5 points away from the point spread. The Chiefs needed a controversial pass interference call in the final seconds to get into field position for a game-winning field goal. RB Isiah Pacheco fractured his leg in the win, and depth will be an issue at running back going forward. The Chiefs defense choked off the big plays and Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase only had 35 receiving yards in the loss.

The Atlanta Falcons (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 22-21 road win over the Eagles, which covered the spread as the underdog. QB Kirk Cousins made a huge improvement from the opener and looks completely comfortable with his new teammates and offense. Also, RB Bijan Robinson had one of his better games of his pro career. The end of the game was wild and the Falcons benefited from some Eagles mistakes in the final two minutes of the game.

The Chiefs are the better overall team, and the Falcons benefited from some poor decisions made by the Eagles, or this point spread would be closer to a touchdown. Kansas City signed RB Kareem Hunt and have RB Samaje Perine and FB Carson Steele who can help with the loss of Pacheco. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 18-13 home loss to the Browns, which failed to cover the spread as the favorite. QB Trevor Lawrence was inaccurate and forced too many throws. He has plateaued in his development, and the failure to add a talented veteran receiver hasn’t helped in that aspect. Also, his offensive line needs to do better. On defense, they were expected to be a top-ten defense, which I think they will be, but their offense is putting them in some tough field positions.

The Buffalo Bills (2-0, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-10 road win over the Dolphins, which easily covered the spread as the underdog. The Bills defense took the front seat in this win. They forced three interceptions and got to the quarterback twice in the win. The offense didn’t have to do much in the second-half, as they had the game under control by halftime.

The Bills defense may not be as good as previous years, but I’m really down on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. I don’t expect the Bills to lose this game outright, but a garbage time score could swing the win to Jacksonville against the spread, so I’m taking the points.

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-8) – My pick is Washington Commanders +8

The Washington Commanders (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-18 home win over the Giants, which covered the spread by a few points. Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels has been the best of the rookie starters this year. He’s being smart with the ball, accurate with his passes and can extend plays. Also, RB Brian Robinson played well on non-passing downs by rushing for 133 yards on 17 attempts. Their defense isn’t expected to be very strong this year and will struggle against better offensives.

The Cincinnati Bengals (0-2, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-25 road loss to the Chiefs, which was a win against the spread. As bad as QB Joe Burrow looked in Week 1, I didn’t have high hopes for the Bengals against the Chiefs, but he stepped up in a tough matchup. He couldn’t get the ball to WR Ja’Marr Chase much, but leaned on TE Mike Gesicki with success.

The Bengals stepped up and nearly beat the Chiefs last week. It was a bit surprising after their opening week debacle against the Patriots. I doubt the Commanders will win this game outright, but I think QB Daniels will keep things closer than we expect, so I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 18-11-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob