Last week, I went 4-2 against the spread and 2-4 with my over/under picks.

Most of the games were fun to watch and I love this week’s slate of playoff games. There are some interesting match-ups and a few young quarterbacks could move up a tier with a win this weekend.

I love that we don’t have any double-digit point spreads this week. We had many in the last few divisional game rounds in recent years.

Can the Jaguars continue their run with a win against the Chiefs?

We pick every NFL Divisional Playoff game against the spread.

Since there are only six games this weekend, as a bonus I will also pick the over/under for each game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) – over/under (52.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars and OVER

The Jaguars are 10-8 outright and 9-8-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-30 home win over the Chargers. They were able to make a 27-point comeback and move onto the next round. QB Trevor Lawrence was awful in the first-half by throwing four interceptions, but he made adjustments and was excellent to finish the game. The Jaguars defense needs some credit as well.

The Chiefs were 14-3 outright and 5-11-1 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off their bye week and could get RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire for this game. He has been out since November with an ankle injury. The Chiefs struggled against the spread to finish the year, but they are still coming in overrated due to them being a public team.

I expect this game to be another close one for the Jaguars. They have young, explosive playmakers on offense and still have enough talent on defense to end drives. The Chiefs may get the outright win, but Jacksonville should keep it tight, so I’m taking the points and the OVER.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) – over/under (48) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles and UNDER

The Giants are 10-7-1 outright and 14-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-24 road win over the Vikings in the Wild Card round. QB Daniel Jones carved up Minnesota’s weak pass defense. The Vikings may have been the weakest ‘good’ team in the league. They were wildly inconsistent down the stretch. 

The Eagles were 14-3 outright and 8-9 against the spread during the regular season. They are coming off their first-round bye. They are coming off a 22-16 home win over the Giants in Week 18. The Giants rested their starters and the Eagles largely ran a vanilla offense for the outright win. Philly had a 19-3 lead at one point, but they eased up in the fourth quarter and allowed 14 points in the final period.

The Eagles were 2-0 outright in their two meetings against the Eagles this season. The Giants have been an outstanding betting team down the stretch, but I think the Eagles will have a strong showing after their bye. The Giants should struggle to run the ball. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home, and I’m going with the UNDER.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-5) – over/under (48) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals and OVER

The Bengals are 13-4 outright and 12-4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-17 home win over the Ravens. It was an extremely tight game. Baltimore overachieved and their pass defense did enough to limit QB Joe Burrow. The Bengals have won nine-straight games outright (7-1-1 ATS).

The Bills are 14-3 outright and 8-8-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-31 home win over the Dolphins. I was surprised that the Dolphins were able to keep up with the Bills. If the Dolphins had better quarterback play, they could have easily won this game thanks to their defense. The Bills have won eight-straight games outright (4-4 ATS).

The last time these teams faced each other, Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest on the field. The game was stopped and never finished. This game will be emotional and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamlin shows up to watch the game in-person. I’m expecting a close game and I may take the Bengals moneyline in a few parlays. I’m taking the points and the OVER.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) – over/under (46) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers and OVER

The Cowboys are 13-5 outright and 10-7-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-14 road win over the Buccaneers. It was a rather easy win with QB Dak Prescott scoring five total touchdowns. Their secondary made Bucs QB Tom Brady look his age.

The 49ers are 14-4 outright and 12-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 41-23 home win over the Seahawks. The Niners dominated the second-half as their offense consistently finished drives and put points on the board. Rookie QB Brock Purdy has been outstanding in relief of Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. Purdy could be their quarterback of the future (and present).

This should be the fourth close game of the weekend. The Cowboys will need more out of their backfield if they hope to hang with the Niners. I don’t expect Prescott will have an easy time on Sunday. The Niners are clicking on both sides of the ball and are arguably the best team in the league. I’m taking the Niners to cover at home and I’ll go with the OVER.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 143-132-8

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob