I went 9-6 against the spread last week.
Last week’s slate of games ended with such a horrible situation. Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest after he tackled Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins. It was the scariest football injury situation that I’ve witnessed since Dennis Byrd or Mike Utley went down with neck injuries in the 90’s. We wish Hamlin a speedy recovery.
This week’s betting picks is lean heavily on different playoff scenarios. There are only a few playoff spots left, but a handful of teams could leapfrog each other if certain things happen.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 18 of the 2022 NFL season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+9) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 13-3 outright and 4-11-1 record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 home win over the Broncos. They’ve been an awful betting team this season, but they’re still winning outright games. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in the playoffs.
The Raiders are 6-10 outright and 8-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-34 overtime loss to the Niners. QB Jarrett Stidham did much better than anyone believed he would and nearly got the outright win. He spent a couple seasons in New England with head coach Josh McDaniels. It’s interesting to see what role Stidham will have going forward.
There is a lot of stuff going on with playoff seedings now that the NFL officially cancelled the Bills/Bengals game. The Chiefs are already guaranteed a bye, but they need to get the win to help secure their home-field advantage. The Raiders don’t have much to play for, but Stidham will be trying to improve his role with the team. I’m going with the Chiefs to cover on Saturday.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans are 7-9 outright and 8-6-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-13 home loss to the Cowboys. QB Joshua Dobbs showed off his big arm in the loss, but his accuracy needs a lot of work. I realize he was facing a tough pass defense last week, but the Titans will need a safer gameplan if they hope to win the AFC South.
The Jaguars are 8-8 outright and 8-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-3 road win over the Texans. It was their fourth-straight outright win and have covered in all of those games. They defense has been stepping up and the improved play from QB Trevor Lawrence is the main reason for their possible AFC South crown.
The Titans are banged up and the odds of them winning this game outright are slim. They will have RB Derrick Henry back this week, but he can’t do it alone. Dobbs is slated to start this week and he may not have the skills to win a division-clinching game. I think the Jaguars will win and cover at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are 8-8 outright and 4-11-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-24 home win over the Panthers. They clinched a playoff spot and won’t gain anything with a win or a loss. It appears that their starters are slated to play in this game, but it’s unknown how long they will play.
The Falcons are 6-10 outright and 8-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-19 win over the Cardinals. It was an overall sloppy game from both teams. The Cardinals are depleted from injuries and the Falcons have packed it in weeks ago. They are giving rookie QB Desmond Riddler some reps, but I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from the young gun.
This largely a skippable game, and if you have other options, I wouldn’t tune in for this one. I doubt the Bucs starters will play the entire game, but they should play enough to keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are 8-8 outright and 7-8-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-21 home win over the Dolphins. The Patriots were able to take advantage of the Dolphins quarterback issues. They did enough on offense to hold off the Dolphins late in the game.
The Bills are 12-3 outright and 7-7-1 against the spread. I would mention the outcome of their previous game, but their game against the Bengals was cancelled after defensive back Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest following a hard tackling attempt. As of this writing, he is now awake and has been improving.
I won’t go through the laundry list of playoff scenarios due to the cancellation of last week’s Bills/Bengals games (a neutral site AFC Championship game is being discussed). The Bills will be motivated to win for Hamlin and should cover at home.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+7.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are 12-4 outright and 6-9-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 41-17 road loss against the Packers. They were down 27-3 at halftime, but unlike their game against the Colts, they were unable to make a huge comeback. They just can’t go down by that amount of points against an above average-to-good team.
The Bears are 3-13 outright and 5-10-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-10 road loss to the Lions. It’s clear to me that the Bears are playing for draft position. They could secure the #1 pick with a loss and a Texans loss to the Colts.
The Vikings would love to have a solid game heading into the playoffs. They need to play great for all four quarters to get their confidence up. The Bears aren’t looking to put up a strong fight, so I’m taking the Vikings to cover this week.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are 10-6 outright and 6-9-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Steelers. Baltimore’s defense is still playing at a high level, but their offense doesn’t have a big play threat. QB Tyler Huntley is a solid backup, but he doesn’t have the arm talent to win games against good teams.
The Bengals are 11-4 outright and 12-3 against the spread. Their last game was cancelled due to circumstances surrounding Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest. The Bengals playoff scenarios are a numerous and home-field advantage in the conference championship could end up at a neutral site.
The Bengals have some motivation to get a big statement win, but the Ravens defense are still playing at a high level. If they can limit Cincinnati to under 21 points, I think they can keep it close, so I’m taking the points.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Texans are 2-13-1 outright and 7-8-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-3 home loss to the Jaguars. After a string of close losses, it was their first blowout loss since early this season. They are currently in the driver’s seat to get the first pick in the draft, but there are a lot of players who are trying for their next contract.
The Colts are 4-11-1 outright and 6-10 record against the spread. They are coming off a 38-10 road loss to the Giants. The Colts offense has been a disaster for weeks now and it appears that they will hand the keys back to QB Sam Ehlinger after Nick Foles suffered a rib injury. They are arguably the worst team in the league right now.
Why am I taking the Colts to cover over the Texans? Well, it would be a nice chef’s kiss to end the year. Everything has gone wrong for the Colts and a win would further knock them down the draft board. They need a quarterback, but they will probably screw it up, so that’s why I’m taking the Colts this week.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Jets are 7-9 outright and 8-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-6 road win over the Seahawks. QB Mike White had a rough outing and their defense struggled against the run. The Jets may have just had some luck early this season. They are still a few pieces shy of being a legit contender.
The Dolphins are 8-8 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 23-21 road loss against the Patriots. It was their fifth-straight outright loss and they need a lot of help to earn a Wild Card spot. The Dolphins hasn’t announced their starting quarterback for this game. Teddy Bridgewater has a dislocated pinkie and it appears they will go with either Skylar Thompson or Mike Glennon.
This will be a a coin-flip game. The Dolphins need some help to make the playoffs, but they still have the talent across the board to earn that spot. Clearly their quarterback will hold them back, but I’m rolling the dice this week.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are 6-10 outright and 8-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-24 road loss to the Bucs. They’ve been a much better team since QB Sam Darnold regained his spot under center. Their defense completely collapsed in the fourth quarter. Darnold needed a little more help from his backfield as well.
The Saints are 7-9 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 20-10 road win over the Eagles. They have no motivation to tank since the Eagles own their first-round pick, so they’ve been picking up wins of late. Their defense has been solid all season, but they’ve improved down the stretch.
The Saints will most likely end up winning this game, but I could see them missing the spread by a half-point. I don’t expect a ton of points on the scoreboard after this one, so I’m taking the points.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns are 7-9 outright and 8-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-10 road win over the Commanders. QB Deshaun Watson didn’t attempt many passes, but he had his best performance with the team. He only completed nine of 18 passes, but he threw three touchdown passes. They were greatly helped by Commanders QB Carson Wentz’s three interceptions.
The Steelers are 8-8 outright and 9-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 16-13 road win over the Ravens. They have now won three-straight games outright. The Steelers defense could lead this team into the playoffs, but they need a win and some help.
All three games that affect the Steelers’ playoff chances will take place all at noon on Sunday. I expect their defense will force Watson into some bad throws and Pittsburgh will inch out a cover on Sunday.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-14) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants are 9-6-1 outright and 12-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-10 home win over the Colts. It was a nice confidence booster for a team clinching a Wild Card spot. They’ve been on a bit of a downward spiral and might be an easy-out during the Wild Card round.
The Eagles are 13-3 outright and 8-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-10 home loss to the Saints. They were in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage, but after two-straight losses, they need a win this week to clinch it. If the Cowboys win, and the Eagles lose, they could lose the division and be playing next week.
The Eagles smoked the Giants a couple weeks ago and they need another strong showing this week. They need another strong showing to avoid playing next week. I’m taking the Eagles to cover this week.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (+7) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 12-4 outright and 9-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-13 road win over the Titans. They have outright won six of their last seven games and are one of the hottest teams in the league. They could clinch the NFL East with a win and an Eagles loss.
The Commanders are 7-8-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-10 home loss to the Browns. It was an embarrassing performance from QB Carson Wentz. The Commanders are benching him to get a look at rookie QB Sam Howell. The young quarterback had a solid career at North Carolina, but his draft stock took a hit every year after a superb freshman season.
The Cowboys have a group of ballhawks in their secondary. I’m expecting them to take some chances and pick off a few passes this week. Howell will have a rough outing and the Cowboys should cover on the road.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-2.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
The Chargers are 10-6 outright and 10-5-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-10 home win over the Rams. They are on a four-game outright winning streak (3-1-1 ATS) and have clinched a Wild Card spot. It was a nice rebound after starting the year 5-5.
The Broncos are 4-12 outright and 7-9 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 road loss to the Chiefs. They are struggling to get outright wins, but are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. I’m expecting a strong outing to finish a hugely disappointing season.
I’m expecting the Chargers will rest their starters. It’s more important to rest their stars and go into the playoffs fresh. It’s a bonus that they could be slotted against an AFC team that’s dealing with injury issues, like the Dolphins or Ravens. I’m taking the Broncos to cover at home.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-6) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
The Rams are 5-11 outright and 6-9-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-10 road loss to the Chargers. They didn’t have a great outing defensively and QB Baker Mayfield wasn’t much of a factor. I did like that RB Cam Akers has come alive in the last quarter of the season.
The Seahawks are 8-8 outright and 7-9 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-6 home win over the Jets. It was their first outright win since December 4th. The Seahawks need a win and a Packers loss to earn the final Wild Card spot in the NFC.
This will probably be an ugly game to watch. I’m expecting a lot of handoffs and a low-scoring games. It’s a bit risky to take a team favored by six points in a low-scoring affair, but I think Seattle will limit the Rams to single-digits. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover at home.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals are 4-12 outright and 8-8 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-19 road loss to the Falcons. Arizona’s starting quarterback situation is a mess and had to call upon David Blough. It was a rough game to watch and I feel pity to the region of faces that was forced to watch that one.
The Niners are 12-4 outright and 10-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 37-34 overtime road win over the Raiders. It was their first time failing to cover since November 13th. I was surprised their defense allowed Raiders QB Jarrett Stidham to throw for 365 yards.
The Niners have a chance to win home-field advantage in the NFC, but they would need a win and for the Eagles to lose to the Giants. It’s much more likely that they will end up with the #2 seed, but probably my favorite to appear in the Super Bowl. I’m taking them to cover over the Cardinals at home.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Lions are 8-8 outright and 11-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 41-10 home win over the Bears. They had a huge game on the ground and amassed 265 rushing yards. Also, their defense just crushed the Bears all game.
The Packers are 8-8 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 41-17 home win over the Vikings. The Packers have now outright won four games in-a-row. Just a few weeks ago, I would have never thought they would be in a position to make the playoffs. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is finally getting some help from his backfield and their play-calling is more balanced.
The Lions should be proud of their record and I think they found their franchise quarterback in Jared Goff. I think they will come up shy in this game and I’m taking the Packers to cover at home.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 128-119-8
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob