I went 7-6 against the spread last week.
Once again, I finished the week near-.500. It’s almost automatic at this point, but I hope that a full slate of games will end this streak of parity.
We only have one double-digit point spread this week. We usually have three of four double-digit betting lines this time of year. We will see way more in the coming weeks, so enjoy this week.
The Cardinals vs Broncos game might be the worst game of the year. I feel sorry for people in those regions.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 15 of the 2022 NFL season.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
The Niners are 9-4 outright and 8-5 record against the spread. They are coming off a 35-7 home win over the Buccaneers. It was an impressive win, but they lost WR Deebo Samuel for the next few games. Rookie QB Brock Purdy was solid and played better than Bucs QB Tom Brady.
The Seahawks are 7-6 outright and 6-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-24 home loss to the Panthers. QB Geno Smith had a lot on his plate after some backfield injuries. He was forcing a lot of throws and his defense gave up too many points in the fourth quarter.
The Niners are playing their best football right now. The loss of Samuel will sting, but their defensive resurgence is a bit under-the-radar. Their defense is healthy and as long as they score 17+ points, they should get the win and cover.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Colts are 4-8-1 outright and 5-8 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost to the Cowboys 54-19. The game was tight, but then the fourth quarter happened. It was one of the most lopsided quarters I’ve watched (that didn’t include Nathan Peterman).
The Vikings are 10-3 outright and 6-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-23 road loss to the Lions. The Vikings couldn’t get their running game going, but QB Kirk Cousins shined by throwing 425 yards. His big game was ruined by the Vikings secondary. They are giving up too many big plays.
The Vikings may not blow out the Colts, but I think their passing game is a little too explosive for the Colts secondary. I also think the Vikings will be able to run on the Colts this week. I’m taking the Vikings to cover on Saturday.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
The Ravens are 9-4 outright and 5-7-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-14 road win over the Steelers. QB Tyler Huntley has been solid in relief of injured QB Lamar Jackson. The offense hasn’t been putting up a ton of points, but they are inching out wins.
The Browns are 5-8 outright and 6-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-10 road loss to the Bengals. The Browns offense is still trying to find their way with QB Deshaun Watson. I honestly believe they would be better off with Jacoby Brissett under center right now. Their running game is even struggling since Watson’s debut.
Huntley cleared concussion-protocol this week, but head coach John Harbaugh hasn’t named the starter, but it looks like Huntley will get the call. I’m still going the Browns because I think the Watson will look better this week.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins are 8-5 outright and 6-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-17 road loss to the Chargers. QB Tua Tagovailoa had an awful game by only completing ten of 28 passing attempts. His running game was no help, so a six-point loss was the best-case scenario.
The Bills are 10-3 outright and 6-6-1 against the spread this year. They are coming off a 20-12 home win over the Jets. Their defense stepped up big in the game. They made big plays and limited the Jets through the air. The Bills bent to Jets QB Mike White, but they didn’t allow him to throw a single touchdown pass.
I’m betting that the Bills secondary will for Tua into some bad passes. The Dolphins haven’t been as good since their bye week. This point spread should probably be double-digits, so I’m taking the Bills to cover.
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1) – My pick is Detroit Lions
The Lions are 6-7 outright and 9-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-23 home win over the Vikings. Over the last month, QB Jared Goff has turned his season around. He has played his way into Detroit’s long-term plans. The addition of rookie WR Jameson Williams could be huge down the stretch.
The Jets are 7-6 outright and 8-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-12 road loss to the Bills. QB Mike White had a better-than-expected game against the Bills, but he didn’t find the endzone. There were too many drives that ended prematurely, but he still racked up some yards.
The Jets should be able to throw on the Lions porous defense, but I think the Lions will match them score-for-score. The Jets have an impressive secondary, but I think wide receivers D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds will step up in this game. I’m taking the Lions on Saturday.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+14) – My pick is Houston Texans
The Chiefs are 10-3 outright and 3-9-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-28 road win over the Broncos. It does not look good when the Broncos can score 28 points on your defense. The Chiefs haven’t been a good betting team and a lot of that is due to their defense.
The Texans are 1-11-1 outright and 5-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-23 road loss to the Cowboys. They outperformed expectations and they surprised us by splitting quarterback duties between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel. Also, WR Chris Moore came out of nowhere with a ten catch, 124-yard performance.
The Chiefs are the better overall team, but they have been badly overrated all season. I also think the Texans defense has made some strides in recent games. Kansas City will win, but the Texans should keep it within two scores, so I’m taking the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
The Steelers are 5-8 outright and 6-6-1 record against the spread. They are coming off a 16-14 home loss to the Ravens. QB Mitchell Trubisky did not play well and his backfield couldn’t bail him out. It all boiled down to the Steelers inability to stop the Ravens running game.
The Panthers are 5-8 outright and 7-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-24 road win over the Seahawks. They gained 223 rushing yards and QB Sam Darnold didn’t need to do much. It’s amazing how well the Panthers offense moves when their quarterback isn’t shooting themselves in the foot.
It’s unknown which quarterback will start for the Steelers. Rookie Kenny Pickett was limited in practice and some have politicked for Mason Rudolph, but if Pickett can’t go, Trubisky will most likely be the quarterback. I expect the Panthers backfield to have a big game against the Steelers. I’m taking Carolina to cover at home.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (+9) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are 12-1 outright and 8-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 48-22 road win over the Giants. The Eagles defense had some issues in mid-November, but have been great the last two weeks. As long as they can stymy the run, their offense takes care of business.
The Bears are 3-10 outright and 4-8-1 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Packers 28-19. The Bears were in the driver’s seat, but imploded in the fourth quarter. QB Justin Fields had an efficient game with only five incomplete passes, but unfortunately, two of those were intercepted.
The Eagles run defense has been better of late and they will be tested in this game. If they can force Fields into throwing more, they dominate this game. Fields will most likely have some success, but the Eagles defense has been so good lately. I’m taking the Eagles to cover on the road.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are 5-8 outright and 7-6 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost to the Steelers 19-16. QB Marcus Mariota has been a big disappointment for me. I thought he was going to be a Most Improved Player candidate, but the passing game hasn’t been a huge part of their offense.
The Saints are 4-9 outright and 5-8 against the spread. They are also coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost to the Bucs 17-16. They allowed Bucs QB Tom Brady to throw two touchdown passes in the final three minutes of the game.
The Falcons announced that they are benching Mariota and will start rookie QB Desmond Ridder. He had an impressive collegiate career at Cincinnati, but is he ready to step into this offense and have success? I don’t trust him right now. I’m taking the Saints to cover at home.
Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 10-3 outright and 8-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-23 home win over the Texans. A win is a win, but they were favored by seventeen points and barely got the outright win. It was a surprising outcome, but you may chalk it up to them playing down to their opponent’s ability.
The Jaguars are 5-8 outright and 5-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 36-22 road win over the Titans. QB Trevor Lawrence had one of his best games as a pro. He threw for 368 yards and four total touchdowns (three pass, one rush). He is showing a lot of chemistry with TE Evan Engram and WR Zay Jones.
The Jaguars are playing better of late, but I think the Cowboys got spooked by how little they beat the Texans. They come into this game with open eyes and I’m expecting a big game from the Cowboys. I’m taking Dallas to cover on the road.
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-3) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are 4-9 outright and 6-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-13 home loss to the Patriots. They lost QB Kyler Murray (torn ACL) during the first drive of the game. Backup QB Colt McCoy always looked competent when he’s called upon, but the Patriots were too much for him.
The Broncos are 3-10 outright and 5-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-28 home loss to the Chiefs. It was their most points scored this season. QB Russell Wilson suffered a concussion late and backup Brett Rypien didn’t move the ball much in relief.
Wilson is still in concussion-protocol and has been limited all week. It doesn’t look very likely that he will suit up this week. The Cardinals are always underrated when McCoy had a week to prepare. He usually comes through and I think he will perform well, so I’m taking the points.
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-1) – My pick is New England Patriots
The Patriots are 7-6 outright and 7-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-13 road win over the Cardinals. They came into the game short-handed in their backfield, but may have found a capable back in rookie Pierre Strong Jr.. QB Mac Jones hasn’t been great since he returned from injury earlier this season. He needs a strong backfield to help push him over the goal-line right now.
The Raiders are 5-8 outright and 6-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-16 road loss to the Rams. They allowed two touchdowns in the final 3:19 of the game. Defense has been a huge issue for the Raiders this season and they just allowed Rams QB Baker Mayfield to have the best three minutes of his pro career. Also, QB Derek Carr played like he was already looking for off-season vacation spots online.
The Raiders have a pair of elite pass rushers, but the rest of their defense is subpar. The Patriots should be able to run the ball on them, and if they can do that, it will help ease up the pass rush on Jones. I’m taking the Patriots in this game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are 9-4 outright and 10-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-10 home win over the Browns. The Bengals backfield is finally healthy, but wide receivers Tee Higgins (hamstring) and Tyler Boyd (finger) are on the shelf. Boyd will miss the next couple games and Higgins is currently listed as questionable.
The Buccaneers are 6-7 outright and 3-9-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 35-7 road loss to the Niners. It was a forgettable game for the Bucs and they were dominated in every facet. Their defense has been good lately, but they just ran into a buzzsaw. It was their first time giving up more than 27 points since October 2nd.
The Bengals have some injury issues on offense, but QB Joe Burrow has dealt without many of his weapons at points this year. He should be able to deal with those issues and probably spam the ball to WR Ja’Marr Chase. I’m taking the Bengals to cover on the road.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Titans are 7-6 outright and 8-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 36-22 home loss to the Jaguars. They collapsed in the second-half and only scored again when the game was out-of-hand. It was nice to see RB Derrick Henry rush for over 100 yards again.
The Chargers are 7-6 outright and 8-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-17 home win over the Dolphins. The Chargers pass defense has been pretty darn good since their loss to the Chiefs. If they can continue that kind of play, the Chargers could sneak into the playoffs.
I expect the Derrick Henry to have another gain 100+ yards against the below average Chargers run defense, but if the Chargers defense can force some third-and-longs, I think Los Angeles should be able to cover this game. I think Chargers QB Justin Herbert should have a big game, so I’m taking them to cover at home.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5) – My pick is New York Giants
The Giants are 7-5-1 outright and 9-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 48-22 home loss to the Eagles. The game was lost when the Giants bailed on their running game. They were never going to go score-for-score with the Eagles. They needed their defense to make a few stops in the second quarter, before the game got out of control.
The Commanders are 7-5-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they tied the Giants 20-20. QB Taylor Heinicke came up huge late in regulation when he found WR Jahan Dotson for a touchdown. It was a fun game, but the overtime period was rather uneventful.
These two teams just met two weeks ago, so you can comparing these teams is apples to apples. The Commanders will most likely win this game, but it will be another close one, so I’m taking the points.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Rams are 4-9 outright and 5-7-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-16 home win over the Raiders. QB Baker Mayfield was on the team for a couple games and led them to a win. He didn’t play very good as a whole, but he threw two touchdown passes in the final few minutes.
The Packers are 5-8 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, but in their previous game, they beat the Bears 28-19. QB Aaron Rodgers didn’t play great, but again, he turned it on in the final quarter to get the win. He just owns the Bears and it’s hard to bet against him against Chicago going forward.
The Packers have been focused on trying to the run the ball more. They usually bail on it once they are down by any amount of points. I think they will have success against the Rams front-seven. Also, I expect Baker Mayfield to fall back down to Earth. He was awful in Carolina and there kind of stench doesn’t go away. I’m taking the Packers to cover at home.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 105-96-7
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob