I went 7-6-1 against the spread last week.

It was a nice rebound after the previous week’s implosion. It wasn’t a fantastic outcome, but I was glad to come out (slightly) ahead again.

We don’t have an early European game this week, but we will see a Monday night game in Mexico. I can deal with that much better than the usual garbage we see in those games overseas.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season.

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are 6-3 outright and 7-2 record against the spread. They are coming off a 17-10 home win over the Broncos. QB Ryan Tannehill returned from injury and gave the Titans a more well-rounded offense. RB Derrick Henry didn’t have a great game against Denver, so they needed Tannehill’s arm to pick up the win.

The Packers are 4-6 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 31=28 overtime win over the Cowboys. Green Bay scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to tie it all up and got the field goal win with just a few minutes left in the overtime period. Green Bay finally spammed the ball to their talented backfield. They surpassed 200+ yards on the ground and rookie WR Christian Watson grabbed three touchdowns.

I’m not sure if the Packers should be favored in this game. They needed a perfect fourth quarter to force overtime last week. I think the Titans will will beat up the Packers front-seven and Derrick Henry should help move the ball down the field. I’m taking the points on Thursday.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-4.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Rams are 3-6 outright and 2-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 home loss to the Cardinals. Backup QB John Wolford stepped in for concussed Matthew Stafford and the offense stayed stagnant. The Rams defense is the only thing keeping the teams competitive right now.

The Saints are 3-7 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 20-10 loss on the road in Pittsburgh. It was tied for most of the game, but the Saints allowed the Steelers to scored ten unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh relied on their running game to help continue drives.

It looks like Stafford should play this weekend. The Rams offense has trouble converting third downs, so points are only put on the board when a big play is made. They lack the playmakers in the passing game to be consistent in that area. This should be a close game due to the Rams defense, but I think the Saints could sneak out a cover.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Jets are 6-3 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Bills 20-17. The Jets are an improved team on both sides of the ball and I expect RB James Robinson will become more of a focus as he continues to learn the offense.

The Patriots are 5-4 outright and 5-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Colts 26-3. It was a complete domination of the Colts and cost the Colts head coach his job. They will have a tougher time this week.

The Patriots have owned the Jets for two decades. It’s rare when the games are even competitive. I believe the tides are turning in this battle. The Jets have the better younger talent and I think they will keep this close. I’m taking the points in this game.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears are 3-7 outright and 4-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-30 home loss to the Lions. The Bears had a 24-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter, but the Lions really finished strong. The gut shot was when their kicker missed an extra-point after QB Justin Fields scored a 67-yard rushing touchdown. The Lions were able to score a touchdown (and the extra point) in the final minutes to take the lead.

The Falcons are 4-6 outright and 6-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 25-15 road loss to the Panthers. It was a sloppy game overall and QB Marcus Mariota attempted some questionable throws in the loss. It was Atlanta’s fourth-straight loss against the spread.

I really like the Bears in this game. The Falcons defense may not have the speed to deal with the Bears rushing attack. The Falcons were underrated early this season, but they’ve regressed. I’m taking the points in this game.

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-13) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are 3-7 outright and 4-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 25-15 win against the Falcons. I was surprised when QB P.J. Walker got the start over Baker Mayfield. I just didn’t see that coming. Walker was saved by RB D’Onta Foreman’s legs. He has been a huge plus for the Panthers offense. He has taken the starting job from Chuba Hubbard.

The Ravens are 6-3 outright and 4-4-1 against the spread. The are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Saints 27-13. They’ve had a rather cupcake-ish schedule of late. They started the year against some of the best teams in the league, so they needed a damn break.

The Ravens are clearly the better team, but this point spread is a tad too bloated. If this point total deflated to a single-point total, I may change my mind, but I don’t see that coming. The Panthers could struggle to move the ball on the ground, but Baker Mayfield should be able to make a few throws down the field. I like the points in this game.

Washington Commanders at Houston Texans (+3.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders

The Commanders are 5-5 outright and 5-4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 32-21 road win over the Eagles. It was a huge win for QB Taylor Heinicke who has lead his Commanders to a 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS) record over his last four starts. I suggested that Heinicke was a better fit for Washington this preseason, but didn’t think I’d get a chance to see it.

The Texans are 1-7-1 outright and 4-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-16 road loss to the Giants. I can’t rain enough praise on Texans rookie RB Dameon Pierce, he’s been outstanding. QB Davis Mills may have racked up over 300 yards in the loss, but his accuracy was questionable. Houston is just missing a can’t-miss playmaker in the passing offense.

The Texans started the season as a tough beat against the spread, but they are 1-3 ATS in their last four games (and that lone win came against a double-digit spread). I think the Commanders will cover on the road.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Browns are 3-6 outright and 4-5 record against the spread. They are coming off a 39-17 road loss to the Dolphins. Miami just couldn’t be stopped on offense. The Browns got to the point when they needed to air it out to try to catch up, and that doesn’t go well when QB Jacoby Brissett is under center. Cleveland needs the running game as their #1 offensive option.

The Bills are 6-3 outright and 4-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-30 home loss to the Vikings. It was an improbable comeback victory by the Vikings. There were so many things that needed to happen…and they all did. QB Josh Allen’s elbow injury may have cause a few errant passes, but his running game is starting to solidify (even if he led the team in yards again). A lot of good things happened in the game, but due to injuries, good passing attacks will take advantage of the Bills.

The Bills won’t have to worry about the passing offense much this week. The Bills front-seven are pretty damn good, but they’ve allowed some big games the last three weeks. Buffalo should be able to stack the box and get the cover at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 8-1 outright and 5-4 against the spread this year. They are coming off a 32-21 home loss to the Commanders. I knew the Eagles would probably fall to an NFC East foe at some point this season, but the Commanders were low on that list. It was a bad offensive performance by Philly and their defense couldn’t stop the run.

The Colts are 4-5-1 outright and 4-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 25-20 road win over the Raiders. New head coach Jeff Saturday tried to pull the ole’ switcharoo before the game as QB Matt Ryan started in place of Sam Ehlinger. It was an unexpected move and it worked. The offense played like a respectable NFL team and RB Jonathan Taylor made some big plays.

The Eagles run defense has been pretty damn bad since rookie DT Jordan Davis went down with an injury. They signed DT Linval Joseph this week in hopes that he can help corral the Colts running game. They will allow a few big plays, but Indy has no shot if they turn this game into a shoot-out. The Eagles offense can put up points in a hurry and the Colts don’t have the dynamic quarterback to make those plays. It’s a tall task, but I’m taking the Eagles to cover this spread on the road.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3) – My pick is New York Giants

The Lions are 3-6 outright and 5-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-30 road win over the Bears. They were beneficiaries of a Bears missed extra-point and skated out the door with a one-point win. It was WR Amon-Ra St. Brown’s best game in a long time. He caught ten passes for 119 yards in the win. They have won two games in-a-row outright and against the spread.

The Giants are 7-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-16 home win over the Texans. RB Saquon Barkley has been great for the Giants and they are already talking about signing him to a long-term extension. I also like their use of WR Darius Slayton, he has deep threat speed and they’ve connected with him a few times for big gains this season.

The Giants are 2-1 against the spread when they are favored. Even though they have won five of their last six games, they haven’t been favored much this year. I feel that they are still a tad underrated, so I’m taking the Giants to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Raiders are 2-7 outright and 3-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 25-20 home loss to the Colts. QB Derek Carr is missing too many of his weapons. He is looking for WR Davante Adams on every passing play as TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow are both still out. A good pass defense could really make things hard for Carr to connect with Adams.

The Broncos are 3-6 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 17-10 road loss to the Titans. They were able to stymy Titans RB Derrick Henry, but they allowed a few too many big plays through the air. It was a surprise as the Broncos pass defense is among the best in the entire league.

I think the Broncos pass defense will bounce-back from a rough outing and limit Carr in this game. Denver has their own issues with wide receiver injuries, but they had a deeper pool of talent. I’m taking the Broncos to cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 5-4 outright and 6-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Panthers 42-21 at home. They continue to miss injured WR Ja’Marr Chase, but RB Joe Mixon game alive with a FIVE touchdown performance in their last game.

The Steelers are 3-6 outright and 4-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-10 home win over the Saints. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett is learning on the job and is still inconsistent. The Steelers were able to move the ball best on the ground with RB Najee Harris nearly cracking the century mark. Pickett helped with a few rushes of his own and scored the touchdown to put the game away.

The Steelers beat the Bengals in overtime 23-20 back in Week 1. It was a weird game that both teams seemed to try their hardest to lose. The Steelers won the game with a field goal as time expired in overtime. You can’t really take any away from that game and use it in this contest. The teams have changed so much since Week 1. The Bengals are coming off a bye and I think they cover on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys are 6-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 31-28 overtime loss to the Packers. Dallas looked to be coasting to a win, but the Packers played a perfect fourth quarter to tie the game in regulation. It was a learning moment and I don’t see them choking away a double-digit lead any time soon.

The Vikings are 8-1 outright and 4-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a marquee 33-30 overtime road win against the Bills. It was a wild game and is arguably the best game of the year so far. Teams will have trouble with the Vikings passing game this year and they have the ability to hit home runs often.

Both of these teams are coming off emotional overtime games. The Cowboys secondary are prone to take risky angles on defense. They have ball-hawking corners and sometimes those risky angles lead to interceptions…and sometimes they lead to passing touchdowns. I think the Vikings should be able to move the ball, so I’m taking the points.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are 7-2 outright and 3-5-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-17 home win over the Jaguars. They gained a ton of yards, but left a lot of points on the table. They had a 20-7 lead at halftime and I thought it was going to be an easy cover, but the Chiefs only scored one touchdown in the second-half. It was a weird push to me and I hope they play a more complete game this week.

The Chargers are 5-4 outright and 6-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 22-16 road loss to the Niners. QB Justin Herbert is dealing with a lot of injuries around him. He has key linemen and wide receivers that has spent more time on the injury report than on the active roster this season. It looks like there’s a chance he could get wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams could return soon, but they’ve been in that limbo in the past and have yet to play.

These teams know each other very well and they have two of the best young quarterbacks in the league. That being said, the Chargers have so many key players on the injury list and it’s too much of a deficit, so I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on the road.

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

This game will be played in Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico

The 49ers are 5-4 outright and 4-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 22-16 home win over the Chargers. We saw a group of players come off the injury report all at the same time. RB Elijah Mitchell made a huge impact by rushing for 89 yards and is a nice complement to RB Christian McCaffrey.

The Cardinals are 4-6 outright and 5-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-17 road win over the Rams. Backup QB Colt McCoy started for injured Kyler Murray and it looks likely that McCoy could be called upon again this week. McCoy did suffer a minor knee injury in the win, but he is listed as day-to-day.

The Cardinals have dealt with some in-fighting this season. They just released RB Eno Benjamin this week. He allegedly got into an altercation with a coach and was put on waivers the next day. Many players were confused with the release as he was a big chunk of the offense when RB James Connor was out with injury. I don’t like it when there are these kinds of issues on a team. They are just one game away from meltdown, and this could be that game. I’m taking the Niners to cover in Mexico.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 76-68-6

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob