I went 9-5 against the spread last week.

I had a shot at an eleven-win week, but I failed to cover in the primetime games on Sunday and Monday. 

Many teams find themselves with a different starting quarterback than they had just a few weeks ago. The Colts made a change by naming QB Sam Ehlinger the starter over veteran Matt Ryan. Also, the Saints have given the keys to QB Andy Dalton, regardless of the health of Jameis Winston.

Can the Jets continue their hot start with a cover over the Patriots?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season.

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are 4-3 outright and 2-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-20 home win against the Browns. Their defense was able to limit the Browns running game enough to squeak out a win. Their own running game had issues at times, but the return of RB Gus Edwards is a huge addition. I would like to see QB Lamar Jackson throw a little more down the stretch.

The Bucs are 3-4 outright and 2-5 against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 21-3 road loss to the Panthers. Carolina’s offense has been lost at times, and you would assume after trading RB Christian McCaffrey to the Niners, it would sputter in his absence…that did not happen. Their backfield of Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman moved the ball with ease. Tampa Bay needs some help from their own backfield if they hope to be a playoff team.

I worry about the Bucs offense on a short week. They’ve only scored more than 21 points in a game just once all season. Also, the Ravens running game could have similar success against the Bucs this week. I’m taking the points on Thursday Night Football.

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

This game will be played in London, England. This Broncos are 2-5 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-9 home loss to the Jets. QB Russell Wilson (hamstring) didn’t play and backup QB Brett Rypien threw the ball too much in the loss. Wilson should be back this week, but he will need his backfield to step up a little more. Their offense has been horrible and I’m not sure they have a quick fix.

The Jaguars are 2-5 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 23-17 home loss to the Giants. QB Trevor Lawrence is having a accuracy issue of late and he only completed 22 of 43 attempts in the loss. They clearly love what they are seeing from RB Travis Etienne Jr., as after the game, they traded RB James Robinson to the Jets for a conditional draft pick.

London games are traditionally pretty sloppy, but they haven’t been too bad this year. I worry this could be an all-time snoozer for the London market. Both of these offenses are having problems and this could turn into a field goal contest. I like the Jaguars a little more and they should inch out a cover in England.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Bears are 3-4 outright and 3-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 33-14 road win over the Patriots. They got off to a fast start and their running game beat down the Patriots front-seven in the second-half. It was a surprising outcome, but I’m not sure if it can be easily replicated against some of the better teams in the league.

The Cowboys are 5-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-6 home win over the Lions. QB Dak Prescott returned from a finger injury and eased his way back into the offense. When the Cowboys are able to run the ball and throw short with success, they are a very difficult team to beat. Their defense were able to force a couple turnovers, which could be key in this week’s contest.

I’m sure many watched last week’s Bears victory and are looking forward to this week’s game…but their offense is not consistent. I could see Fields turn the ball over if he has to throw the ball to come back in the second-half. I had double-digit point spreads in the NFL, but I think the Cowboys will pull it off on Sunday. 

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+1.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Patriots are 3-4 outright and 3-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-16 home loss to the Bears. QB Mac Jones returned from injury and started the game, but found himself on the bench early in the game. Backup QB Bailey Zappe started hot in relief, but struggled when his offense became one-dimensional in the second-half.

The Jets are 5-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-9 road win over the Broncos. They lost RB Breece Hall (ACL injury) in the win, but did go out and acquire Jaguars RB James Robinson soon after finding out Hall’s prognosis. The Jets needs a lot from their backfield and RB Michael Carter is a fantastic complementary back and should fit well with Robinson. Jets QB Zach Wilson struggled last year when he did too much. He hasn’t had to carry the offense since he came back from a preseason knee injury.

The Patriots have a few too many question marks going into this game. Yes, the Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots outright in many years, but I love their secondary right now. If Jones isn’t quite 100%, he’s going to have a hard time completing passes. I gotta take the points in this one.

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (+3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are 4-3 outright and 3-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-10 home win over the Steelers. QB Tua Tagovailoa returned after missing a couple games due a concussion. He didn’t throw the ball as well as he did pre-concussion, but the Steelers pass defense has been pretty darn good this year. The Dolphins are dealing with some injuries in the secondary, but their short-handed crew stepped up and picked the ball off three times.

The Lions are 1-5 outright and 3-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-6 road loss to the Cowboys. It was a tight game in the first-half, but the Cowboys defense were able to get stops on third downs, while the Lions defense crumbled in the fourth quarter. They’ve only scored a total of six points over their last two games.

Over their first four games, the Lions averaged 35 points a game, but their offense has disappeared since their 48-45 home loss to the Seahawks. They need to find their passing attack again, or they will be playing for another #1 overall pick again. I’m taking the Dolphins to cover on the road.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (+1.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are 2-4 outright and 3-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-20 home win over the Texans. It was a game that they could have easily lost, but their defense stepped up in the fourth quarter and allowed their offense to put up points. They sealed the win late in the game with a pick-six from safety Duron Harmon. I also want to mention the play of RB Josh Jacobs. If he continues to rack up 130+ yards per game, the Raiders are a tough out.

The Saints are 2-5 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they suffered a home loss to the Bengals. New Orleans have been without QB Jameis Winston for a few games. Backup QB Andy Dalton stepped up in their win over the Seahawks, but imploded with pick sixes in their Bengals loss. It appears that Dalton will start this game and may have won the starting job.

Teams have been able to throw on the Raiders secondary this season. Dalton can win games with his arm, but he will have a disaster of a game in-between a couple solid performances. If the Raiders defense can stop the Saints running game, they could force Dalton into a few mistakes. I’m taking the Raiders to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Cardinals are 3-4 outright and 4-3 record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, lost on the road to the Seahawks 19-9. A lot has been said about the Cardinals struggling offense. A lot can be done in a bye week, but I don’t see any quick fixes. QB Kyler Murray is trying to do a lot and his receivers are dropping too many balls. They also need their backfield to get healthy, which may need another week to get back a few of those guys.

The Vikings are 5-1 outright and 2-4 against the spread this season. They are also coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Dolphins 24-16 on the road. They’ve been winning games, but they’ve barely missed on three of their four losses against the spread. Their pass defense gave up way too many yards against the Dolphins, so they also had a lot to work on during their bye week.

I’ve been on the Vikings bandwagon for most of this season, so my betting record for their games is under .500. I hope their defense can step up enough for them to cover this one. I’m taking the Vikings to cover at home.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are 2-5 outright and have the same against the spread this year. They are coming off a 21-3 home win over the Buccaneers. QB P.J. Walker had his best game as a pro and RB Chuba Hubbard set personal records for himself as well. Hubbard had help in the backfield as D’Onta Foreman had success when Hubbard needed a break. I’m not sure how consistent this offense will be, but they weren’t doing anything complicated last week.

The Falcons are 3-4 outright and 6-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 35-17 road loss to the Bengals, their first defeat against the spread. Their pass defense sold them out and their offense isn’t setup to win shootouts. I hate to sound like a broken record, but their offense is below-average without injured RB Cordarrelle Patterson. 

The Panthers surprised me last week and they could surprise a lot of people again on Sunday. Hubbard is on the injury report, so this pick is a bit risky. They may not win outright, but I don’t see the Falcons winning this game by a touchdown, so I’m taking the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Steelers are 2-5 outright and 3-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 16-10 road loss to the Dolphins. It was a winnable game for the Steelers as the Dolphins didn’t do much after the first quarter. Their defense dropped a ton of probable interceptions in the loss. Had they caught one or two of those, they could have had an outright win.

The Eagles are 6-0 outright and 4-2 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Cowboys 26-17. Philly offense is getting a lot of love, but I personally believe their defense is the biggest reason for their undefeated outright record. Their secondary has been fantastic over their last four games.

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett will most likely be a solid NFL quarterback, but he is learning on the job. He’s already made some highlight reel throws, but the learning curve is steep. The Eagles should be able to throw a lot of look at him and he may not have much success. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+2.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are 4-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming a 19-10 home win over the Colts. They scored double-digit points in the first-half and their defense took over to seal the win. The Titans offense will rarely wow teams, unless RB Derrick Henry does it himself. Tennessee has historically handled their business against AFC South teams.

The Texans are 1-4-1 outright and 3-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-20 road loss to the Raiders. Houston usually faces a talent disparity ever week and it was evident against the Raiders. Their defense isn’t deep enough to deal with a physical running game…which may not bode well on Sunday.

The Texans have been able to hang against the spread in recent meetings against the Titans. A lot of those spreads were over a touchdown, so they don’t have the benefit of that this week. Henry should have a solid game and I’m taking the Titans to cover on the road.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Giants are 6-1 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-17 road win over the Jaguars. The Giants secondary has been great this year, but if you look at the box score from last week’s game, you wouldn’t understand the effort. They are often underrated on both sides of the ball.

The Seahawks are 4-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 37-23 road win over the Chargers. They have also been underrated this season, but bettors know better now. We figured out that QB Geno Smith is an actual professional-level quarterback and rookie RB Kenneth Walker III should have been a first round pick. They did suffer a big loss when WR D.K. Metcalf went down with a knee injury, but dodged a bullet as it wasn’t season-ending.

The Giants injury report is getting longer and longer every week. Their offense has been hit hard. I’m expecting a down week from them as they heal up. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Niners are 3-4 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 44-23 home loss to the Chiefs. It was closer than the score would make you believe. Their defense shit the bed in the fourth quarter. The Niners tried to get newly-acquired RB Christian McCaffrey up to speed for the game, but it was clear that he wasn’t quite ready. They will need him to take over a larger role as WR/RB Deebo Samuel (hamstring) has missed practice this week.

The Rams  are 3-3 outright and 2-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Panthers 24-10 at home. They are having issues on offense and a lot of people are pointing their finger at QB Matthew Stafford. He isn’t carrying the offense and chemistry with WR Allen Robinson II has been slow. They are also dealing with some unrest in their backfield as RB Cam Akers appears to be on his way out.

I really like Rams head coach Sean McVay, so I have a lot of faith in him coming up with remedies for his ailing offense. I’m giving him that benefit and the Niners offense could be a little off if Deebo can’t play. I’m taking the points this week.

Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3) – My pick is Washington Commanders

The Commanders are 3-4 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-21 home win over the Packers. QB Taylor Heinicke started in place of injured Carson Wentz. He had great moments over the last two seasons, but he hasn’t been consistent enough to be viewed as a franchise quarterback. Heinicke will need to get more touchdowns than field goals if he hopes to turn the Commies season around.

The Colts are 3-3-1 outright and 3-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 19-10 road loss to the Titans. QB Matt Ryan injured his shoulder in the loss and the Colts named second-year QB Sam Ehlinger as the starter for the rest of the season. It’s a bold move for a team that’s .500, but a change was needed. I’m not sure if Ehlinger is the guy, but his success will depend on RB Jonathan Taylor’s legs.

The Colts have a lot of question marks heading into this game. It’s hard to put a penny on Ehlinger when the last time he’s played any meaningful snaps was back at U of Texas. Also, the Colts front-seven has allowed a lot of rushing yards the last few weeks. It wouldn’t surprise me if rookie RB Brian Robinson Jr. has his best game as a pro. I’m taking the points in this one.

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 3-4 outright and 2-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-21 road loss to the Commanders. Green Bay needs their running game as their offense has become way too one-dimensional. They are getting the ball to RB Aaron Jones in the passing game, but the Packers have always been a better team when they run the ball 30+ times a game. They have the depth to do that with success.

The Bills are 5-1 outright and 4-1-1 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Chiefs 24-20 on the road. They needed a touchdown from TE Dawson Knox in the final minute to secure the win. The Bills actually had a traditional running game for the first time in awhile. It’s frustrating when QB Josh Allen has been the leading rusher many weeks. 

I know the Bills aren’t a great team to run against, but the Packers really need to feed their backs again. It could open up some deeper routes. The Bills have some injury issues in their secondary, so the Packers should be able to continue drives through the air. The Packers may not win this game outright, but this point spread is a little bloated, so I’m taking the points.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 4-3 outright and 5-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 35-17 home win over the Falcons. QB Joe Burrow went off for 481 yards in the win. He spread the ball well and WR Tyler Boyd had his best game of the year. Cincinnati’s defense only allowed one big play all game. The Falcons were left with short gains and struggling to put together long drives.

The Browns are 2-5 outright and 3-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Ravens. QB Jacoby Brissett has been better than expected while he marks time waiting for Deshaun Watson’s suspension to end. The Browns running game needs to rack up around 200 yards to win games this season. They have only rushed for 183 yards combined over their last two games.

Cleveland’s running game averaged 179 yards on the ground in their two meetings last season. The Bengals run defense held up last week, but they allowed 200+ rushing yards against the Saints just two weeks ago. This could be a close game, but Burrow is playing so well right now. It’s hard to bet against him, so I won’t…I’m taking the Bengals to cover.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 56-49-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob