Are you ready to place your bets?

I went 155-129-6 against the spread last season. I hope this season will be a little less erratic with pandemic issues. We’ve had a good run of late, so let’s hope a new variant doesn’t pop up and screw up a bunch of games this Fall.

There was a huge turnover with starting quarterbacks this offseason. A lot of new faces in new places. Will any of these veteran quarterbacks turn back the clock and play like their peak?

How will Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence fare in Year 2?

Can Tua Tagovailoa take a big leap and lead the Dolphins to a successful year?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a huge chip on their shoulders after the way their season ended last year. They lost to the Chiefs in overtime. They allowed a touchdown after the coin toss and didn’t get to touch the ball in the extra frame. The offenses were both clicking and they may have won had the coin toss gone their way. The Rams are coming off a Super Bowl win over the Cincinnati Bengals. They didn’t lose a ton of players this offseason, but huge loss is now suiting up for the Bills, LB Von Miller. Buffalo’s defense was already stacked and adding Miller pushed them up among the Rams as one of the best defenses in the entire league. If the Bills can keep WR Cooper Kupp doubled, I think their safeties can stop their deep threat receivers. I’m going to go with the Bills to cover on the road in the opener.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Saints saw their longtime head coach Sean Payton ‘retire’ this offseason and hired defensive-minded head coach Dennis Allen. The Saints flirted with the idea of getting a new quarterback this offseason, but they are sticking with QB Jameis Winston and added veteran Andy Dalton to back him up. It appears that WR Michael Thomas could suit up in Week 1 and the potential suspension for RB Alvin Kamara (assault) still hasn’t happened. The Falcons have a new quarterback in town after trading QB Matt Ryan to the Colts. They signed QB Marcus Mariota and drafted Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder. Mariota is the starter and he’s an underrated quarterback. He’s mobile and can move out of the pressure better than Ryan could last year. Their offensive line isn’t great, so adding a mobile quarterback is huge. The Saints may win this game, but I think RB Cordarrelle Patterson is a big enough X-factor to keep it close. I’m taking the points in this game.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (+6.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

This showdown will pit two second-year quarterbacks against each other. The Niners gave QB Trey Lance the keys to the franchise this offseason, but they have a backup plan in Jimmy G if he struggles. The Niners have struggled with injuries the last two seasons and it was so bad last season that WR Deebo Samuel was used in a Swiss Army knife position. He had success out of the backfield, then spent most of the offseason complaining about wanting out of town. Samuel and the Niners got together on a big extension, so both sides are now happy. The Bears are expecting a lot out of QB Justin Fields this year, but he doesn’t have very much talent on offense. His backfield is serviceable with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, but losing WR Allen Robinson this offseason hurts. Fields will need to use his legs a lot and I hope he holds up. He will be running around on Sunday as the Niners pass rush is healthy. I expect they will force Fields into a couple turnovers. I’m taking the NIners to cover on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers knew they needed to address the quarterback position this offseason. Longtime quarterback Ben Roethlisberger retired, so they went out and signed the ‘best’ free agent quarterback available (Mitchell Trubisky) to a two-year $14.285 million deal. It was a very weak free agent quarterback class and the Steelers decided that they weren’t finished. Pittsburgh then selected QB Kenny Pickett with the 20th pick in the NFL Draft. There were questions about who will be the starter this week, but the Steelers named Trubisky as the starter a few days ago. The Steelers hope their studs on defense can pick up the slack from future inconsistencies on offense. The Bengals made their first Super Bowl in decades, but fell to the Rams in a close game. They spent the offseason trying to keep a few of their pieces on defense that had expiring deals. They come into this season with a similar squad and have the talent to make another run. The Bengals will most likely win this game, but I think the Steelers defense make a few plays to keep it within the spread, so I’m taking the points.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+3.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

Philly is coming off a playoff berth, but it was a quick trip. They lost to Tampa Bay in the Wild Card game. They knew they needed to get QB Jalen Hurts more weapons, so they traded for WR A.J. Brown. You would be hard-pressed to find a faster receiver combo than DeVonta Smith and Brown in the this league. The Eagles expect a lot from Hurts and his crew this year. The Lions are still trying to build a competitive team, but I can’t say they were very successful this offseason. They need to see a lot of production out of their young talent this year. They have a solid offensive line, but QB Jared Goff is a below-average quarterback at this point. I don’t see the Lions winning very many games this year and the Eagles should cover this one on the road.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Patriots made the postseason in QB Mac Jones rookie season, but they were demolished 47-17 in Buffalo. They lost RB James White this offseason, but a combo of running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ty Montgomery should help to fill that void. Those backs will complement starting RB Damien Harris well and force teams to respect the running game. The Dolphins are in a ‘make or break’ season with QB Tua Tagovailoa. We need to see some glimpses of what his potential ceiling may look like in the future. Miami added WR Tyreek Hill this offseason to help him out. I think Tua will make a leap in his development and he needs to trust his arm more. New England have been slow starters the last few years and I could see them do that again, especially in Miami. I’m taking the Dolphins to cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (+6.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

Last season, the Ravens were playing like a potential Super Bowl contender…then they suffered some key injuries in their secondary and finished the season on a seven-game losing streak. It wasn’t like they were getting blown-out in those losses, as only one of those defeats were by more than six points. Baltimore has some contract extension drama that will likely leak into the season as QB Lamar Jackson is still without an extension. The Jets had a major scare this preseason as they saw QB Zach Wilson hold his knee in pain during an early preseason game. They feared he tore his ACL at the time, but it turned out to be a meniscus injury that has a timetable that ‘could’ see him suit up this weekend. It’s a big ‘if’, but it’s slightly possible right now. The more likely option is that backup QB Joe Flacco starts against his former team. I would expect a lot of handoffs if Flacco is forced to start. I don’t see the Jets scoring a ton of points in that scenario. The Ravens offense alone should be able to put up a cover against the Jets.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders (-2.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders

2021 was an awful year for the entire Jacksonville Jaguars organization. The entire Urban Meyer drama just left a cloud over the locker room. They did end the year on a high note by beating the Indianapolis Colts and keeping them from clinching a playoff berth. Jaguars new head coach Doug Pederson has had a lot of success developing quarterbacks and he hopes he can sprinkle his pixie dust on second-year QB Trevor Lawrence. He will have some weapons returning as his college teammate RB Travis Etienne is healthy again and TE Evan Engram was a great addition as well. Washington finally decided on a new nickname and they got themselves a new quarterback as well. QB Carson Wentz had a rough year in Indianapolis and the Colts overall success had very little to do with arm. He made some bonehead mistakes and their running game bailed them out most games. Wentz doesn’t have the same running game and pass protection in Washington, but he does have a few solid weapons to help out. The Commanders will win games if their defense shows up. They have a lot of studs on that side of the ball and should make Trevor Lawrence struggle to move the ball on Sunday. I’m taking Washington to cover at home.

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-1.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Browns had one hell of an offseason. They traded for QB Deshaun Watson and gave him the largest guaranteed money contract in NFL history…and they did all of that knowing exactly what he was accused of doing to massage therapists. He received an eleven-game suspension for his off-the-field accusations. The Browns will have to start QB Jacoby Brissett in the meantime, which could hurt their postseason aspirations. They would have had QB Baker Mayfield to help during Watson’s suspension, but they traded him to the Panthers, their Week 1 foe…so Mayfield is going to be amped up for this game. He will have a healthy RB Christian McCaffrey, which is a rare site in Carolina these days. The Panthers also have a healthy secondary, which was running on fumes by the end of last season. I’m not a fan of Brissett and think Cleveland will be running the ball as much as possible on Sunday. If the Panthers can force the Browns into passing downs, Carolina should be able to cover at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+7.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

Last season, the Colts were playing as good as any team in the NFL, but they fell on their faces in Week 18 by losing to the Jaguars, failing to make the playoffs. QB Carson Wentz took a lot of blame and he was booted to Washington. They were able to acquired QB Matt Ryan, which is a phenomenal addition. He fits the team so damn well. He doesn’t have an ego and is a professional. He can just hand the ball off 30+ times a game, and if the Colts get the win, he’s happy as hell. Also, if the Colts are down, he can put the team on his shoulders and make the throws that need to be made. I love this addition and I have high hopes for the Colts this year. The Texans had a lot of issues last year, but they may have stumbled upon their quarterback. QB Davis Mills got off to a rough start last year, but he only threw five picks after October 10th. He got into a groove and was able to win a pair of games in December last year. The Texans are far from being a playoff team, but they are starting to find the corner pieces to put together their puzzle. I expect the Colts will run the ball down the Texans throats and cover on Sunday.

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (-5.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

This is a ‘make or break’ season for Giants QB Daniel Jones. There is a new regime in New York and I thought there was a chance that Jones would actually be traded this past offseason, but it didn’t happen. Jones has dealt with a lot of injuries at wide receiver since joining the team years ago, and he also suffered his own share of injuries himself. He will have RB Saquon Barkley back, but will he struggle like last season or look more like pre-knee injury Saquon? I would be surprised if he gets to 1,000 yards ever again, but I’ve been wrong before. It would be a huge plus if he can get his yards per carry above 4.0 again. The Titans are coming off a playoff season, but once again, they were booted before making a Super Bowl. A late-season injury to RB Derrick Henry really hurt any shot of a long playoff run. He came back too early and wasn’t the same player in their playoff loss to the Bengals. I expect the same Titans offensive strategy this season and that means a lot of carries for Henry. They should be able to run on the Giants and cover this spread.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+2) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Packers racked up 13 wins a season ago and they have aspirations of a similar regular season record this year. They had a first-round bye, but they lost to the Niners 13-10 in the divisional round. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers saw his team trade away his favorite target WR Davante Adams this offseason. Green Bay got a lot of draft capital in return, but that move had to make Rodgers squirm. They added WR Sammy Watkins, but his weapons aren’t as stacked as in past seasons. Hopefully the defense will step up and pick up the slack. I expect CB Jaire Alexander to play at a Pro Bowl level this year. The Vikings will test Alexander and the rest of the Packers secondary. Their passing attack has weapons all over and will spread the Packers defensive backs thin. QB Kirk Cousins could have his best season in Minnesota. Cousins will need his defense to squeeze out another year at their peak. They have some aging stars on that side of the ball, but they are very familiar with Rodgers. I think the Vikings passing offense will cause trouble and they will keep this game close. I’m taking the points in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (+6) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Chiefs came up one game short a year ago. They made some changes this offseason and now QB Patrick Mahomes have two new targets (JuJu Smith-Schuster & Marquez Valdes-Scantling) and saw WR Tyreek Hill end up in Miami. I believe there will be some adjusting on offense and it may take a few games for the Chiefs to look like the normal, high-powered Chiefs. The Cardinals have had an interesting offseason. They had long contract negotiation with star QB Kyler Murray and all sides were happy by the end when he signed a new long-term deal. They come into Week 1 short-handed as WR DeAndre Hopkins will begin a six-game suspension for a failed drug test and WR Rondale Moore is questionable with an undisclosed injury. The Cardinals will need to lean on Murray a little extra to do some work with his legs. They still have some playmakers, but if they lose both of those receivers, it will hurt. The Chiefs will most likely win this game, but I still think the Cardinals have enough talent on defense to keep this game close. I’m taking the points in this game.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders made some big moves this offseason. They added WR Davante Adams and DE Chandler Jones, which are moves a team should make if they think they are a few pieces away from a Super Bowl. They also made an underrated move by acquiring CB Rock Ya-Sin from the Colts, which is needed in the division with stud quarterbacks. The Chargers made their own big move this offseason by acquiring LB Khalil Mack from the Bears. Their linebacker corps is a scary group of guys. They also bring back roughly the same starters on offense, so there won’t be any growing pains like a few other teams in the AFC West. I expect a big season from Raiders QB Derek Carr. He has a chance to shut up all the noise about the Raiders needing a new quarterback. Adams is a huge gift for him and I think they will keep this game close, so I’m taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Bucs had an interesting offseason that saw QB Tom Brady retire, then unretire in a matter of a few weeks. He also made news when he left training camp to take care of some personal issues. I’m down on Brady this season and think this will be his last. His age will eventually become an issue and his unknown personal issues is a distraction he hasn’t had in the past. The Bucs are still a very good team, but the offensive line could lead to a faster regression of Brady. The Cowboys had a defensive resurgence last season, even though some of the analytics weren’t kind for guys like CB Trevon Diggs. He was a ball hawk, but graded low with below-average coverage ability. He’s a young corner, so he’s going to make mistakes and experience will benefit him this year. The Cowboys usually come into a year overhyped, but I think they are a tad underrated this year. They didn’t add any splash free agents on offense like other teams, so they are being overlooked. Their speed on defense will cause some issues for Brady on Sunday night. I’m taking the points in this game.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos made the biggest splash this offseason by acquiring QB Russell Wilson from the Seahawks. I found the timing a bit odd as this is a move you’d expect a contender to make…and I didn’t put Denver in that category at that time. They are in a stacked AFC West and they realized that they need a star quarterback to contend, so they pulled the trigger. I don’t blame the Broncos as they have whiffed on selecting a franchise quarterback over the years (Tim Tebow, Paxton Lynch and Drew Lock were flops in Denver). Seattle are starting a rebuild and Wilson may not want to stick around for that. They flipped Wilson for Lock, TE Noah Fant and some draft picks. It was a smart move for the organization, but I assume they hate the scheduling move by having them face Wilson in his debut. Seattle named QB Geno Smith as their new starter and he could be in for a long season. I haven’t been a fan of him since college and he hasn’t shown much talent in-game since being drafted many years ago. Wilson should shine in his debut and I’m taking the Broncos to cover on Monday Night Football.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 0-0-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob