I went 7-9 against the spread last week.
We have a slate of six games this weekend and most are rematches from earlier meetings this season. I would preach caution when gleaning too much information from previous meetings, especially those that took place back in October or November.
There’s only one double-digit point spread this week, which is a far cry from some of recent Wild Card Weekends. The table is set for some close games this weekend.
Can the Chiefs cover the double-digit point spread over the Steelers?
We pick every NFL Wild Card Weekend game against the spread.
Since there are only six games this weekend, as a bonus I will also pick the over/under for each game.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) – over/under (49) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals and OVER
The Raiders are 10-7 outright and 8-9 against the spread. They made it into the playoffs thanks to an instant classic game against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. The Raiders are on a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) and their defense has stepped up in those games. The Bengals are 10-7 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 21-16 loss to the Browns, but the Bengals sat nearly every key player in that game. Bengals QB Joe Burrow will be rested and I expect a big game from RB Joe Mixon, who was the star in their meeting earlier this season. I’m taking the Bengals to cover and I’m taking the slight over.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4) – over/under (43.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills and UNDER
The Patriots are 10-7 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 33-24 road loss to the Dolphins. Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones turned the ball over twice and they couldn’t get consistent gains on the ground. They weren’t in a position to run the ball as they were down 27-10 early in the fourth quarter. The Bills are 11-6 outright and 9-6-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-10 home win over the Jets. It was a tight game until the fourth quarter when RB Devin Singletary scored two touchdowns. Buffalo desperately needs a respectable running game, so it was nice to see Singletary nearly crack 5.0 ypc against the Jets. These teams split their two meetings this season. The Patriots won a super windy contest in early December and Buffalo won the second meeting 33-21 in New England on December 26th. If the Bills can run the ball, I think they will cover and I’m taking a slight under.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) – over/under (45) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles and UNDER
The Eagles are 9-8 outright and 8-8-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 51-26 home loss to the Cowboys. Philly opted to rest starting QB Jalen Hurts and a few other key players in Week 18. It was a smart decision as Philly’s running game makes them a threat in the NFC. The Bucs are 13-4 outright and 9-8 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 41-17 home win over the Panthers. It was a close game until the Bucs were able to stretch out the lead late in the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay will get RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) back for this game. I expect the Bucs will win this game, but the Eagles defense is underrated. I’m taking the points and the under.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3) – over/under (51) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys and UNDER
The Niners are 10-7 outright and 9-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 overtime road win over the Rams. It was a sloppy game by both teams, but the Niners ‘kitchen sink’ offense caught the Rams off-guard a few too many times. The Cowboys are 12-5 outright and 13-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 51-26 road win over the Eagles, who say some of their starters. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott had one of his best games of the season, as he threw five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Niners have dealt with so many injuries this season and it’s a bit of a miracle that they are still playing right now. The Cowboys are the better overall team, but they could get caught a few times with a random WR/RB/QB Deebo Samuel trick play, but I am taking the Cowboys to cover and the under.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) – over/under (46.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs and UNDER
The Steelers are 9-7-1 outright and 8-9 against the spread. They are coming off a 16-13 overtime road win over the Ravens. The Steelers looked out of the playoff hunt back in mid-December, but finished the season on a 3-1 stretch (3-1 ATS). The Chiefs are 12-5 outright and 8-9 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-24 road win over the Broncos. Kansas City has underperformed on the road down the stretch, but they’ve been a very solid home team this season. The Steelers are lucky to be in this position and I don’t think this will be a close game. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover and it will hit the under on points.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4) – over/under (49.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams and OVER
The Cardinals are 11-6 outright and 10-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-30 home loss to the Seahawks. Arizona went 1-4 over their last five games (1-5 ATS) and the offensive line isn’t doing its job to protect QB Kyler Murray. Arizona is limping into the postseason and I don’t think they will survive another week. The Rams are 12-5 outright and 8-9 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-24 overtime home loss to the Niners. Rams QB Matthew Stafford made too many mistakes late in the loss. These teams split the season series this year. If the Cardinals offensive line can’t protect Murray better, this could get out of control early. I’m taking the Rams to cover and the over in this game.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 142-118-6
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob