I went 9-4-1 against the spread last week. 

As of Wednesday evening, there are 90 NFL players on the COVID list. There are many key players that will miss this weekend’s games. I actually had a large chunk of this written on Tuesday, but as more and more names were placed on the list, I decided to wait an extra day to post my NFL betting picks. This could become the norm due to the variant’s infection rate.

Can the Patriots stop the Colts running game on Saturday?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are 9-4 outright and 6-7 against the spread. They are coming off 48-9 home win over the Raiders. They are on a four-game cover streak as the Chiefs offense is finally in high-gear after starting the season on fumes. The Chargers are 8-5 outright and 7-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 37-21 home win over the Giants. It was more of a blowout than the final score would lead you to believe as the Giants scored two touchdowns in the last five minutes in garbage time. The Chargers won their last meeting against the Chiefs that happened back in late-September. The fourth quarter was a back-and-forth affair and the Chargers finished the game with a touchdown in the final minute to secure the win. The Chiefs are playing better now and the Chargers secondary has some nagging injuries that could affect their play. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on Thursday night.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (+3.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Raiders are 6-7 outright and 5-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 48-9 road loss against the Chiefs. They were down 35-3 at the half and Kansas City laid off the gas the rest of the game. They were without TE Darren Waller and they just tried to spam the ball to WR Hunter Renfrow, which didn’t extend drives. The Browns are 7-6 outright and 5-8 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-22 home win over the Ravens. Baltimore lost QB Lamar Jackson early in the game, but backup QB Tyler Huntley nearly pulled off the win. Cleveland is dealing with a COVID outbreak and will be without numerous players this week. The key players that will be ineligible this week are QB Baker Mayfield, TE Austin Hooper, WR Jarvis Landry and others. I still think the Browns have a shot due to their backfield and QB Case Keenum QB Nick Mullens isn’t a bad quarterback. I’m taking the points in this one.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Patriots are 9-4 outright and against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Bills 14-10 in a super windy game. They are dealing with a couple notable injuries as QB Mac Jones (thumb) and RB Damien Harris (hamstring) landed on the injury report, but both are participating in practice this week. The Colts are 7-6 outright and 8-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Texans 31-0. The Patriots run defense has been subpar this season. They could have a problem with RB Jonathan Taylor in this game. I’m taking the Colts to cover at home.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+10.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are 9-4 outright and 10-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-20 road win over Washington. They were up 24-0 at the half and nearly let Washington sneak a win in the fourth. They lost LT Tyron Smith for a few weeks with an ankle injury, which could be a factor in the coming weeks. The Giants are 4-9 outright and 6-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 37-21 road loss to the Chargers. They were without starting QB Daniel Jones (neck) in the loss, and is expected to sit out this week. The Giants will most likely start QB Mike Glennon again, but QB Jake Fromm could see time if Glennon stumbles like he did against the Chargers. It may not matter who plays QB for the Giants as the Cowboys defense will do well against both, so I’m taking the Cowboys to cover.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans are 2-11 outright and 5-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-13 home loss to the Seahawks. Texans QB Davis Mills had a solid game and cracked the 300-yard mark through the air. The game was 16-13 at the half, but Seattle scored 17 unanswered points in the second-half. The Jaguars are 2-11 outright and 4-9 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-0 road loss to the Titans. Their offense is just broken right now. Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence has no confidence and I hope this season doesn’t ruin him. I think the Texans are the better team right now. I’m taking the points in this game.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Titans are 9-4 outright and 8-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-0 home win over the Jaguars. Their offense was stale, but their defense forced Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence into throwing four interceptions. The Titans are still trying to figure life without RB Derrick Henry. The Steelers are 6-6-1 outright and 5-8 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 36-28 road loss against the Vikings. They allowed Vikings RB Dalvin Cook to crack the 200-yard mark, but the Steelers still nearly won, but TE Pat Freiermuth dropped a pass in the final seconds. If Henry wasn’t injured, the Steelers would be in line for a beating, but the Titans are having trouble getting first downs. This will most likely be a low-scoring game and I’m taking the points.

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+13) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are 10-3 outright and 9-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-23 home loss against the Rams. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray struggled against the Rams defensive pressure. He threw two interceptions and failed to score a touchdown himself. They also lost WR DeAndre Hopkins (leg) for the rest of the regular season in that game. The Lions are 1-11-1 outright and 8-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-10 road loss against the Broncos. The Lions were short-handed due to COVID and they could be without some of those same people this week. The Cardinals haven’t been beating teams by a lot in recent weeks, but they haven’t played a team as bad as the Lions in a long time. The Lions have been pretty good at defending double-digit point spreads this season, but they failed their first one last week. The Cardinals are better than the Broncos and I think they will cover this large spread on Sunday.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-8.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Jets are 3-10 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 30-9 home loss to the Saints. It was a close game until the fourth and the Saints had more stamina to finish it off. The Jets struggled to stop the Saints backfield. The Dolphins are 6-7 outright and 7-5-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Giants 20-9. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has played better than ever since returning from a thumb injury. When you pair his solid performances with his underrated defense, they are on a five game winning streak (and have covered all five of those games). The Jets may have RB Michael Carter back this week, but I think the Dolphins will still cover at home.

Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (-7) – My pick is Washington Football Team

Washington is 6-7 outright and 5-8 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-20 home loss to the Cowboys. They played great in the second-half and came back after being down 24-0 at the half. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke injured his elbow in the game, but he has been practicing this week. The Eagles are 6-7 outright and 7-6 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Jets 33-18. Philly started backup QB Gardner Minshew in the game due to QB Jalen Hurts ankle injury. Minshew and Hurts have split reps in practice this week as Hurts is considered a game-time decision. I don’t see the Eagles as a touchdown favorite in this game. If this line was closer to a field goal, my pick might be different, but I’m taking the points here.

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-10) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Panthers are 5-8 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 29-21 home loss against the Falcons. Panthers QB Cam Newton struggled again and Carolina announced that QB Sam Darnold is now designated to return from injured reserve. That doesn’t mean that he will start on Sunday, but it’s a possibility. Newton hasn’t played great since his debut. The Bills are 7-6 outright and 6-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-27 overtime road loss to the Bucs. Buffalo has a one-dimensional offense, it’s the Josh Allen Show. He isn’t getting much help from his backfield, so he’s the one making the big gains on the ground. It has put a lot of wear on his body and is now dealing with a foot injury. It looks like Allen’s foot is healing up and is expected to start on Sunday. Buffalo may have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. They are the best 7-6 team in the league and they usually take care of business against the leagues bottom-half of the league. I think the Bills will cover this game at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 7-6 outright and 6-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 26-23 overtime home loss to the Niners. The Bengals didn’t have an answer for Niners TE George Kittle, who has 13 receptions for 151 yards. Bengals QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase nearly pulled off the comeback, but the Niners had an impressive drive in overtime to win the game. The Broncos are 7-6 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-10 home win against the Lions. The game was close at the half, but the Broncos were able to beat down the Lions with their physical running game. The Bengals have an underrated run defense. There haven’t been many teams that have cracked 100 rushing yards against Cincy this year. I’m taking the points in this game.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-8) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Falcons are 6-7 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 29-21 road win over the Panthers. Their defense stepped up and made Panthers QB Cam Newton look like he didn’t belong in the league at times. He was benched and backup QB P.J. Walker fared the same. Atlanta’s backfield did just enough on offense to continue drives, but they weren’t very impressive. The Niners are 7-6 outright and 6-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 26-23 overtime road win over the Bengals. The Niners have been a solid home team this season. WR/RB Deebo Samuel played last week, but he wasn’t 100%. He should be even more involved this week and help the 49ers cover against the Falcons.

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens  (+4.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 10-3 outright and 11-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 45-30 home win over the Bears. The game was close at the half, but the Packers blew the game up in the third quarter and never looked back. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes in the win. The Ravens are 8-5 outright and 6-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-22 road loss to the Browns. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson was knocked out of the game early with an ankle injury and backup QB Tyler Huntley nearly pulled off the win. Jackson is considered day-to-day and he’s been limited this week (and didn’t practice at all today). The Packers have been playing great since Rodgers returned from his controversial COVID stint. I’m taking Green Bay to cover on the road.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are 5-8 outright and 7-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-13 road win over the Texans. Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny had a big game with 137 rushing yards and two touchdowns and WR Tyler Lockett added 142 receiving yards. The Rams are 9-4 outright and 6-7 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-23 road win over the Cardinals on Monday Night Football. Their defense neutralized Cardinals QB Kyler Murray and he went without a throwing or rushing touchdown in the game. The Rams are dealing with a COVID outbreak and will be out a significant number of key players as WR Odell Beckham Jr., CB Jalen Ramsey, OL Rob Havenstein, and ten other Rams are currently on the COVID list. Rams RB Darrell Henderson is on the list, but there’s a chance he could play since he’s had it before others on the list. Seattle will have an edge in this game just because the amount of talent the Rams will have miss the game. It will be difficult for the Rams to cover this one, so I’m taking the points.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints are 6-7 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 30-9 road win over the Jets. They were finally able to get RB Alvin Kamara back from injury. Their offense was stuck in first gear without him. The Bucs are 10-3 outright and 7-6 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 33-27 overtime home win over the Bills. They had a sizeable lead on the Bills at the half, but Buffalo scored 17 unanswered points to end regulation. Bucs QB Tom Brady connected with WR Breshad Perriman for a 58 yard touchdown to win the game. The Saints beat the Bucs outright in their last meeting back on Halloween. The Saints scored ten points in the final two minutes of the game to win 36-27. The Bucs will most likely win this one, but the return of Kamara is huge for New Orleans. I’m taking the points in this game.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are 6-7 outright and 7-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 36-28 home win over the Steelers last Thursday. Vikings QB Dalvin Cook returned from injury and gained over 200 yards on the ground is a surprising performance. The Bears are 4-9 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 45-30 loss to the Packers. The Bears only have one outright win in their last eight games and are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight as well. I expect another loss for the Bears on Monday. I liked what I saw from the Vikings last week and they should have a similar gameplan against the reeling Bears. I’m taking the Vikings to cover on the road.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 111-87-4

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob