I went 9-4 against the spread in Week 7.

After going .500 in the early Sunday games, I ran the table the rest of the day.

We nearly have a full schedule of games with only two teams on bye. We also have a few double-digit point spreads (again) this week. We will be seeing more and more of those going forward. I’m curious to see if we break an all-time record for them due to the new 17-game season.

Can Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes bounce-back from a rough week and look like his old self against the Giants on Monday Night Football?

Can the Detroit Lions get their first win?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 8 of the 2021 NFL season.

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-6) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Packers are 6-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 24-10 home win against Washington. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers had a great game, but they couldn’t get their running game going, which was odd. Green Bay’s defense play loose against the run and the Footballers racked up 195 rushing yards. The Cardinals are 7-0 outright and 6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-5 home win against the Texans. They got off to a slow start, but dominated the last three quarters. Once the Cardinals get a lead, they are great at draining the clock. They are a tough out right now. I know the Packers have been playing great, but their schedule has been light. They could be without their best three wide receivers after WR Allen Lazard laded on the COVID list. The Cardinals are on a tier above them and should cover on Thursday night.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+1) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are 5-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 27-3 home win against the Chiefs. They had a 27-0 lead at halftime and just hit the brakes to coast to the win. Titans RB Derrick Henry only had 86 rushing yards on 29 carries. He wasn’t able to break any big runs like he has his last few games. Tennessee’s defense played great and pressured Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. They knocked him out of the game after a big hit. The Colts are 3-4 outright and 5-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-18 road win against the 49ers on Sunday Night Football. It is hard to glean much from this game because it was played in sloppy, rainy conditions. It is clear that Indy’s defense is getting some of their swagger back with LB Darius Leonard making some big plays. The Titans beat the Colts 25-16 in late September. Tennessee needed a big fourth quarter in that game to get the win. This game will be closer as the Colts are a better team now, but the Titans should still squeak out a close win.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (+9.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 5-2 outright and 4-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-17 blowout road win against the Ravens. Bengals QB Joe Burrow threw for over 400 yards and rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase had his first 200-yard receiving game. The game was close in the third quarter, but The Bengals scored 28 unanswered points to close out the game. The Jets are 1-5 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 54-13 road loss to the Patriots. They lost rookie QB Zach Wilson when he injured his knee in the game. He will miss the next few games and QB Mike White is scheduled to start. The Jets traded for QB Joe Flacco on Monday and will serve as the backup. White did not impress me in relief and is a long way from being a capable NFL quarterback. Cincinnati is playing great right now and I don’t see the Jets being able to compete on offense. I’m taking the Bengals to cover on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+3) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Eagles are 2-5 outright and 3-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-22 road loss to the Raiders. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts struggled with accuracy in the game, but was able to add 61 rushing yards to help his struggling backfield. They have failed to score more than 22 points in a game in five of their last six games. The Lions are 0-7 outright and 4-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-19 road loss to the Rams. They are throwing the kitchen sink at teams to try to get their first win. They recovered a surprise onside kick and successfully completed two fake punts for first downs. This team really wants to win for their coach. If they come at the Eagles with the same level of enthusiasm and unpredictability, I think they have a chance to win this game, or at least keep it close. I’m taking the points in this game.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers are 3-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 25-3 road loss to the Giants. The Panthers benched QB Sam Darnold after he was largely ineffective in the first-half. His backup QB P.J. Walker was much, much worse as he only completed three of 14 attempts for 33 yards. After the game, the Panthers said that Darnold is still their starting quarterback (but rumors of a potential Deshaun Watson trade have intensified). The Falcons are 3-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off their bye week and beat the Dolphins 30-28 in their previous game. Atlanta’s offense has been better since giving RB Cordarrelle Patterson more touches. The Panthers have a playoff-caliber defense, but their offense is just awful right now. I don’t see that changing unless they pull off a big trade. I’m taking the Falcons to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (+3.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are 2-4 outright and 1-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-18 home loss to the Colts. 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo had one of his worst games of his career. It didn’t help that it was a rainy, slippery night. I don’t see him having another game that bad anytime soon. The Bears are 3-4 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 38-3 blowout road loss to the Buccaneers. Bears rookie QB Justin Fields is learning on the job right now and he had a rough day at the office. He threw three interceptions and Bears RB Khalil Herbert was the only shining light on offense. The Bears defense has enough playmakers that can push this team to a win against below-average teams, but their offense just can’t score against good defenses. The Niners may struggle on offense at times, but they still have a top-five defense. I’m taking the Niners to cover on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Steelers are 3-3 outright and 2-4 against the spread. They are coming off their bye and had an overtime win against the Seahawks in their previous game. The Steelers needed a bye week as QB Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with multiple ailments. The Browns are 4-3 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 17-14 home win against the Broncos on Thursday Night Football. They won the game short-handed as they were without QB Baker Mayfield (shoulder), RB Nick Chubb (calf) and RB Kareem Hunt (calf). They got an outstanding game from D’Ernest Johnson to get the win. It looks like Chubb could play in this game, but Mayfield’s status is up in the air as he won’t get cleared until he can adequately protect his injured shoulder. If they can get Chubb back, I think they will have enough on offense to get the cover.

Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans (+14.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 6-1 outright and 4-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-19 home win against the Lions. Detroit was determined to make it a game and they pulled off some trick plays in the loss. Rams QB Matthew Stafford had a great game against his former team. He threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns. The Texans are 1-6 outright and 3-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-5 road loss to the undefeated Cardinals. The Texans got off to a 5-0 lead, but Arizona made a couple adjustments and scored 31 unanswered points. The play-calling on offense was bland and QB Davis Mills only had 135 passing yards on 23 completions. There’s a chance that Houston get injured QB Tyrod Taylor back before this game, but his status is up in the air. The Rams failed to cover a 17-point spread last week against the Lions because Detroit showed up to compete. I think the Rams will cover this spread against the Texans because it looks like Houston has already packed it in. 

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins are 1-6 outright and 2-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-28 home loss to the Falcons. Miami just couldn’t stop Falcons rookie TE Kyle Pitts. Atlanta even lined him up against cornerbacks at times and the young tight end would beat them off the line and get separation. Their offense played their best game, but the defense failed them. The Bills are 4-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off their bye week and lost to the Titans 34-31 in their previous game. It was the most points they’ve given up all season. They beat the Dolphins 35-0 a few weeks ago. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was knocked out of that game early and backup Jacoby Brissett struggled. This game will be closer, but they are just meeting the Bills at the wrong time. Buffalo will be healthy and rested coming off bye and I expect a big day from their offense. I’m taking Buffalo to cover at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are 1-5 outright and 2-4 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week and beat the Dolphins 23-20 in London in their previous game. Jags RB James Robinson has scored five touchdowns in his last four games. He is making the learning curve for rookie QB Trevor Lawrence a little less steep. The Seahawks are 2-5 outright and 4-3 against the spread. They are coming off an ugly 13-10 loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football. Both teams were sloppy in the second-half, but the Saints won the field goal kicking contest. Seattle has lost three-straight games, but have covered both of QB Geno Smith’s starts. People are clearly down on Smith, but he hasn’t made any game-changing mistakes. This one could be close, but I’m taking the points in this one. The Jaguars have a lot less pressure on them and are coming off their bye week.

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Patriots are 3-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 54-13 blowout home win against the Jets. They coasted to the win after they injured Jets QB Zach Wilson early in this game. The Chargers are 4-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they were blown out 34-7 by the Ravens. Their defense have failed them in their last two games, but they have too many playmakers on that side of the ball to not make some adjustments during the bye week. I expect a much better overall effort from the defense on Sunday. The Patriots have given up a couple big games to opposing quarterbacks this season. Chargers QB Justin Herbert should bounce-back from his below average outing against the Ravens. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+4.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are 6-1 outright and 3-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-3 blowout home win against the Bears. Tampa Bay played a near-perfect game against the Bears young offense. QB Tom Brady was great in the red zone and his running game just carried him to the win in the second-half. The Saints are 4-2 outright and 3-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 13-10 win against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. It was the Alvin Kamara Show on offense. He wasn’t great running the ball, but he caught ten passes for 128 yards. This is the sort of safe offense we can expect with QB Jameis Winston under center. The Bucs should play close to the line and take away some of Winston’s short passing alleys. If they can make him throw deeper, I think they can force some mistakes. I’m taking the Bucs to cover on the road.

Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos (-3) – My pick is Washington Football Team

The Footballers are 2-5 outright and 1-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-10 road loss to the Packers. They moved the ball okay, but too many drives ended with failed third-down attempts. WFT QB Taylor Heinicke is a capable NFL quarterback. He has shown that he can make accurate throws and has some wheels on him if he decides to tuck and run the ball. The Broncos are 3-4 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-14 loss to a short-handed Browns team on Thursday. They couldn’t get their running game going and they couldn’t stop Browns RB D’Ernest Johnson on defense. They will need a better effort against the run if they hope to cover this spread against Washington. WFT has been a horrible betting team so far this season, but I think the tide has turned too far the other way now. I think there is some value in the Washington point spread and I’m taking the points.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are 5-1 outright and 6-0 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Patriots 35-29 in overtime. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott had 445 passing yards in the game and hit WR CeeDee Lamb for a touchdown in overtime. The Vikings are 3-3 outright and against the spread. They are also coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Panthers 34-28 in overtime. Minnesota had a big game on offense, but a few mistakes made this game way closer than it should have been. I expect the Cowboys will try to run the ball a lot early. The Vikings struggled to stop the run against the Browns and Bengals this season. Dallas has enough talent in the backfield to do damage to Minnesota’s front-seven. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover on the road.

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Giants are 2-5 outright and 3-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 25-3 home win against the Panthers. Carolina was horrible on offense and just couldn’t move the ball. The Giants wasn’t great with the ball either as they needed great field position to put any points on the board. The Chiefs are 3-4 outright and 2-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-3 road loss to the Titans. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes was nearly folded in half and was taken out of the game. I’m not surprised that the Chiefs have a bad betting record this season. They are often overvalued as they are a public team. Their stock has taken a hit lately and I think this line is pretty darn good. I was expecting somewhere close to -13.5 out of the gate. Mahomes should rebound from his last few games and put up some solid numbers against the banged-up Giants, so I’m taking the Chiefs to cover at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 65-39-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob