I went 11-5 against the spread in Week 3.

It’s clear that the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders were the three most underrated teams going into this season. It could be time to jump off their bandwagons as the betting lines are starting to reflect respect for their early season performances

How will Bucs QB Tom Brady fare in his homecoming against the Patriots?

Can the Steelers bounce-back from last week’s loss and keep it close against the Packers

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Jaguars are winless outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 31-19 loss at home to the Cardinals. They had the lead at halftime, but the Cardinals dominated in the second-half. Jaguars rookie QB Trevor Lawrence struggled again. He was sacked twice, threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles. His offensive line didn’t give him much time all game. The Bengals are 2-1 this season and has the same record against the spread. They beat the Steelers 24-10 last week. They sacked Big Ben five times, who tried to dink and dunk passes all game. The Bengals are a team that will have close games all season. They are a few playmakers away from being a consistent betting team. The reason I’m taking the Bengals here is because I haven’t liked what I’ve seen from Lawrence so far this season. The Bengals should pressure him a lot and will cover on Thursday.

Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-1.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are winless this season and are 1-2 against the spread. They have been competitive this season and actually had the lead late in their 25-16 loss at Tennessee. The Colts may not have G Quenton Nelson in this game, who suffered a high-ankle sprain last week. The Dolphins are 1-2 (2-1 ATS) this year. They will start QB Jacoby Brissett again this week while Tua Tagovailoa nurses his broken ribs. I’ve seen my faire share of Brissett when he was playing in Indy. He isn’t accurate and holds the ball too long. I expect Colts defensive line could force some bad passes. I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-15.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

This the biggest point spread of the season so far. The Texans are 1-2 (2-1 ATS) this season. Their lone win came against the Jaguars in Week 1. They will start QB Davis Mills again, who will be tested in this game. I expect that he will need to throw a lot in the second-half to close, what I expect to be, a large lead. The Bills are 2-1 outright and against the spread. They have blown-out Miami and Washington after falling apart in the fourth quarter in their opening week loss to Pittsburgh. Bills QB Josh Allen has been magnificent and is spreading the ball well. I hate, hate taking the favorite with a betting line like this, but I think the Bills defense is good enough to limit the Texans on the scoreboard. I’m taking the Bills to cover this spread.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Panthers are 3-0 outright and against the spread. They’ve been underrated up to this point, but I think they are a tad overrated this week. They are coming off a 24-9 win against the Texans on Thursday night. Unfortunately, Carolina lost RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) and CB Jaycee Horn (foot) for an extended period of time. They just can’t afford to lose two playmakers. The Cowboys are 2-1 outright and are undefeated against the spread. They are coming off a 41-21 blowout win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football. They were able to finally get RB Ezekiel Elliott going in that game. The Cowboys are the better overall team. Carolina could end up being a playoff team this year, but I really like Dallas right now, so I’m taking the Cowboys to cover.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (+7.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are 2-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 25-16 win at home against the Colts. It’s clear to me that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is still trying to get on the same page with a couple new receivers. I think those issues will work themselves out soon. The Jets are winless outright and against the spread. It’s clear that the Jets just don’t have the overall talent level to compete with any good teams. Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson will continue to try and do too much, thus throw more interceptions. The Titans are a probable playoff team, so they should cover this spread.

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (+2) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns are 2-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a dominate 26-6 win at home against the Browns. Cleveland sacked Bears QB Justin Fields nine times. They racked up 200+ yards on the ground. The Vikings are also 2-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 30-17 win at home against the Seahawks. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is having a low-key impressive season so far (8 touchdowns with no interceptions). Minnesota is a very good team, but they haven’t struggled with their run defense this season. I expect the Browns to exploit that and should cover this spread on the road.

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) – My pick is Washington Football Team

The Footballers are 1-2 outright and 0-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 43-21 blowout loss to the Bills. I’m not sure how much you can glean from that game. The Bills are the cream of the crop and are right up there with the Chiefs and Rams as the best complete teams. WFT QB Taylor Heinicke is capable of being an NFL starting quarterback, but he’s just not good enough to compete against the stout Bills defense. The Falcons are 1-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 17-14 win on the road against the Giants. The game wasn’t pretty and was rather boring until the fourth quarter. Atlanta doesn’t have much of a running game, so QB Matt Ryan is starting to hit RB Cordarrelle Patterson more on short passes. The former wide receiver has good hands and is a smart plan going forward. This will most likely be another close contest. I have to give the edge to the Footballers. Their defense is too fast for Atlanta’s work-in-progress offensive line.

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are 1-2 outright and are winless against the spread. They are coming off a 30-24 loss at home to the Chargers. It was the second-straight fourth quarter comeback they allowed. Chargers QB Justin Herbert had a fantastic game. The Chiefs are a very public team, so they will struggle to cover spreads since they are bet up. The Eagles are 1-2 outright and against the spread. They were shellacked 41-21 by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Their offense just never looked good in that game. I would love this line for the Chiefs if it were -6.5 or less, but that extra half-point scares me a bit. I still think that the Chiefs are too good of a team to just play three quarters in three-straight games. I expect a more complete game effort in this one and the Chiefs will cover in Philly.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Lions are 0-3 outright, but are 2-1 against the spread. I think that’s going to be a trend this season. They may not win a ton of games, but they should hang with some of the average teams in the league. They are coming off a heartbreaking 19-17 loss to the Ravens, which saw Baltimore kicker Justin Tucker kick a NFL-record 66-yard game-winning field goal. The Bears are 1-2 outright and against the spread. They were dominated by the Browns and suffered a 26-6 loss on the road. Bears rookie QB Justin Fields was sacked nine times in that game. He just isn’t ready to be an NFL quarterback right now. I have no confidence in Matt Nagy’s offense. I expect the Lions will keep this close and could get their first outright win, so I’m taking the points.

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-8) – My pick is New York Giants

The Giants are winless on the season and 1-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 17-14 loss at home to the Falcons. I still have faith that the Giants are better than their current record. They have some playmakers on offense and they just need to get RB Saquon Barkley back playing like he was pre-injury. The Saints are 2-1 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 28-13 win on the road against New England. Their defense was able to force rookie QB Mac Jones into throwing three interceptions. The Saints offense isn’t trying to be flashy or prolific. It’s clear that the Saints are just trying to play smart and win games. I don’t see them beating the Giants by more than eight points. I think the Giants will bounce-back and keep this one tight, so I’m taking the points.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Cardinals are 3-0 outright and 2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-19 win on the road against Jacksonville. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray was smart with the ball their defense forced some key turnovers (missed field goal return for TD and pick-six from CB Byron Murphy). The Rams are 3-0 outright and 2-1 against the spread. They played very well when they were tested by the Bucs last week. They won that game 34-24 and stopped a late-game comeback attempt from QB Tom Brady. The Rams are very good and are underrated. Rams QB Matthew Stafford is looking like he did when he had WR Calvin Johnson back in the day. If he can be smart with the ball, I think they will cover this one at home.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are 1-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 30-17 loss on the road against the Vikings. They didn’t have an answer for QB Kick Cousins and his plethora of talented wide receivers. Seattle’s secondary is far from the Legion of Boom-level talent. The Niners are 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread. They lost a heartbreaker on Sunday Night Football to the Packers. They allowed Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to march down the field in under a minute for the go-ahead field goal. The Niners completed their own comeback right before that blunder. San Francisco will need a big game from QB Jimmy Garropolo if they hope to get a win over Seattle. Their backfield is beyond banged-up and could struggle. I think Seattle will keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-1.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-17 win that saw kicker Justin Tucker kick a 66-yard NFL record field goal to win the game. It was a pretty finish of an overall ugly game. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson only completed 16 or his 31 passing attempts. They didn’t get much help from his backfield, so he had most of the rushing yards. The Broncos are perfect outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 26-0 shutout performance at home against the Jets. They have been one of the most underrated teams in the league, but in hindsight, their three opponents have combined for a 1-8 record. I’m not sure how great the Broncos are right now, so this will be their first test. The Ravens have been inconsistent this year, but I think they will rebound on the road and I’m taking the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Steelers are 1-2 outright and against the spread. They are coming off a 24-10 loss at home to the Bengals. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a pectoral injury, but still managed to pass the ball 58 times in that loss. A large portion of those attempts were short. The Packers are 2-1 outright and against the spread this season. They completed a late-game comeback in the final seconds to secure a 30-28 win in San Francisco. The Packers have been impressive after getting blown-out by the Saints in Week 1. They made some adjustments and are playing up to last season’s high standards. I would love this line if it were a couple points smaller, but the Steelers passing game is broken if Big Ben can’t air it out, so I’m taking the Packers to cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (+6.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-24 loss on the road against the Rams. There’s no shame in losing that game since I have the Rams are a top-five team in the league. The Patriots are 1-2 outright and against the spread. They struggled last week in their 28-13 loss to the Saints. Rookie QB Mac Jones didn’t take care of the ball and looked very much like a rookie. He’s been the best rookie quarterback thus far, but the rest of the class have been horrid. This is Tom Brady’s homecoming game and should have the green light to throw the ball. The Patriots don’t have CB Stephon Gilmore, so I expect a big game from the Bucs receivers. I’m taking the Bucs to cover on the road.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are 3-0 outright and 2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-28 overtime win at home against the Dolphins. Their defense played it a little too safe late in the game and allowed the Dolphins to score eleven unaswered points at the end of regulation. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs had to miss the game, but head coach Jon Gruden is optimistic that they could have him back on Monday. The Chargers are 2-1 outright and against the spread this year. They are coming off an impressive 30-24 upset win against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Chargers QB Justin Herbert threw four touchdowns (with no interceptions) and rookie CB Asante Samuel Jr. is playing like a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. This game should be another close one. If Jacobs plays, I think it’s a no-brainer that the Raiders +3.5 is the play. If Jacobs is still not able to go, it will be a coin flip.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
20210: 28-18-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob