The first week of the 2020 NFL regular season is here!

It’s been a crazy offseason with the pandemic hitting causing the cancellation of the preseason games. We are going into this season pretty blind, but we at least have some beat reporters and television networks speaking with coaches on a regular basis.

There was a huge shuffling of quarterbacks this offseason that saw Tom Brady (Tampa Bay), Philip Rivers (Indianapolis) and Cam Newton (New England) starting for new teams.

Can Tom Brady lead Tampa Bay to a win against the New Orleans Saints?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs had a fantasy season and won their first Super Bowl in 50 years. QB Patrick Mahomes chalked up one of the best seasons by a young quarterback in a long time. They didn’t lose many pieces this offseason and their core players are all still in place.  They even added RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire who is coming off a national championship in college. The Texans traded away stud WR DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for RB David Johnson. They couldn’t afford the contract he was looking for, but they did get a possible resurrection project in Johnson. Texans QB Deshaun Watson could struggle without his best receiver. I hate to pick a double-digit win to start the season, but I’m high on the Chiefs this season. I’m taking the defending champions to cover on Thursday night.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

I wasn’t a huge fan of QB Cam Newton signing with the Patriots when it happened. I then started to look at the team and think about the ways Newton could help the team. The only time Patriots head coach Bill Belichick had a mobile quarterback was when QB Jacoby Brissett started a couple games in 2016. Newton isn’t a better overall quarterback than Tom Brady, but I have faith that Belichick will help Newton do what he’s best at to help New England. The Dolphins added a pair of running backs (Jordan Howard & Matt Breida) and a few pieces on defense to help them out this season. They also took QB Tua Tagovailoa with their first pick, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will start until the rookie is ready. I still think they are missing one or two playmakers on offense to compete with New England. I have to take the Patriots to cover at home.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

I was on the fence about this one, but my inability to see anything good about RB Le’Veon Bell carrying the ball for 20 times against a stout Bills run defense threw my pick in that direction. I’m not a fan of Bills QB Josh Allen either, but as long as he runs the ball and doesn’t try to throw deep much, I think they cover this spread. Jets QB Sam Darnold is also coming into this game without much of a deep threat. His former deep threat WR Robby Anderson is now on the the Panthers. If the Jets can’t stretch the field, the Bills will just stack the box and make Bell’s life a living hell. I’m taking the Bills to cover at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+2) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Falcons started last season off as one of the worst teams in the NFL, but then went 6-2 in their last eight games. They lost RB Devonta Freeman and TE Austin Hooper this offseason, but signed/traded for RB Todd Gurley and TE Hayden Hurst to fill those roles. I think the Hurst could be an upgrade, but I’ve lost much faith in Gurley’s knees bouncing back. The Seahawks made a big trade this offseason by acquiring CB Jamal Adams from the Jets. Other than signing TE Greg Olsen, they didn’t do much else to improve the team, but the Adams upgrade is exactly what this team needed. Seattle is a better team overall and the upgrades they made in their secondary will limit what Falcons QB Matt Ryan can do through the air. I’m taking the Seattle to cover on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team (+5.5) – My pick is Washington Football Team

Washington made some changes this offseason that were a long time coming. First, they got rid of their racist name. They probably should have had a name on standby since they’ve known this time was coming for at least two decades now, but nope, we get a odd name like Washington Football Team as a placeholder. They also hired former Panthers head coach Ron Rivera, which is a huge upgrade. I think he will get the most out of QB Dwayne Haskins and enhance the development of young defensive end studs Chase Young and Montez Sweat. The Eagles most still this offseason and didn’t address their biggest weakness in my eyes, their wide receivers. It looks like Eagles QB Carson Wentz will once against need to rely heavily on his tight ends this season. I think Washington will keep this game close and I will take the points.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers surprised me last season. I wasn’t expecting a 13-3 season from them, an 8-8 season would have been much more likely in my eyes. Their offense now runs through their running backs. I don’t expect RB Aaron Jones to surprise anyone this season and teams will be ready for a run-heavy attack. I expect Green Bay to use a rotation of three running backs. QB Aaron Rodgers won’t have the weight of the world on his back, but it would have been nice if Green Bay would have signed a veteran receiver for him. The Vikings lost to the Packers both times last season. Green Bay had a smart gameplan against Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. He had a poor completion percentage and struggled to keep drives a live. I think they’ll keep throwing different coverages at Cousins and will keep this game tight. I’m taking the points.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts decided to sign veteran QB Philip Rivers this offseason. It bumped QB Jacoby Brissett to a backup role. It was a smart move since Brissett struggled to move the ball last year. The Colts also added a couple pieces through the draft. They selected WR Michael Pittman Jr. and RB Jonathan Taylor in the first two rounds of the draft. It’s unknown if either will have much of a role in Week 1. The Jaguars have traded off some of their stars on the defensive side of the ball the last two seasons. They also just released RB Leonard Fournette last week. They come into this season with a lot of youth on both sides of the ball. They still have a few studs left on defense with LB Myles Jack and DE Josh Allen. The Colts will probably win the game, but an eight-point spread is a little too bloated. These two teams know each other well and home-field tends to historically sway their contests. I’m taking the points in this contest.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Bears made a big move this offseason by acquiring QB Nick Foles to battle QB Mitchell Trubisky for the starting job. Trubisky broke camp with the starting job, but he’s nowhere close to be entrenched in that role. They also added WR Ted Ginn Jr. and TE Jimmy Graham to their receiving corps. The Lions have a healthy QB Matthew Stafford back, which is a huge plus considering some of the mediocre backup QB talent they had last season. They also recently added veteran RB Adrian Peterson to their backfield to backup standout RB Kerryon Johnson. The Lions bulked up on defense this offseason as well. They added a pair of former Patriots DT Danny Shelton and LB Jamie Collins, who followed their former defensive coordinator to Detroit. Stafford played very well before getting injured last season. The Lions are a sleeper team this year. I think they’ll handle a shaky Trubisky and cover at home.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Browns and Ravens split their two meetings last season. The last meeting of the season was much more indicative of how much these two teams went in different directions from the start to the end of the year. The Ravens ran the ball all over the Browns in their second meeting. They also focused on shorter passes, which limited mistakes from Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. I believe both teams improved this offseason, so this game could be close at times. I just think Jackson’s elusiveness will cause problems for the Browns front-seven. The Ravens have a lot of weapons that can move the ball. I’m taking Baltimore to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers (+3) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

I’m probably going against the grain with this pick. I don’t see too many people taking the Panthers this week. I just think the addition of QB Teddy Bridgewater is huge for them. Teams will need to cover more receivers than just RB Christian McCaffrey. It will open the field up for McCaffrey and the deep ball should be there for WRs Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson. The Raiders may win more games this season, but I like this match-up for the Panthers. I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

This will be the first start for #1 overall pick Bengals QB Joe Burrow. Many thought maybe the Chargers would start #6 overall pick QB Justin Herbert as well, but they decided to let QB Tyrod Taylor start while Herbert learns on the sideline. It’s a smart move since the Chargers could be good enough this season to battle for a Wild-Card spot. They were on ‘Hard Knocks’ this season and I usually hate betting on the featured team in Week 1. The point spread is often bloated by a point or two due to them being a ‘public team’ early on in season. I think the Chargers have enough talent on both sides of the ball to still cover on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs added a lot of stars this offseason. Once QB Tom Brady jumped on board, guys like TE Rob Gronkowski followed him. Tampa Bay had a lot of firepower last offseason, but former QB Jameis Winston threw too many interceptions to keep them making a playoff appearance. You won’t get the same turnover rate with Brady. The Saints are a legit Super Bowl contender, so Brady will be tested right out of the gate. This game should be close, but I have to take the points in this one. It should be a fun game to watch.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

Arizona made a big money move by trading for WR DeAndre Hopkins. They put in the investment to get QB Kyler Murray a talented route runner with elite hands. They also made a decision late last season to focus more of the offense around RB Kenyan Drake. It paid off with a couple big fantasy games for the running back. The Niners made a Super Bowl run last season, but lost in the big game to the Chiefs. Down the stretch last season, they handed the keys to RB Raheem Mostert and he flourished in the featured back role. The offense just moved better with Mostert in the game over RBs Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. I would have loved to see the Niners sign a veteran wide receiver to help,out. They will need to rely on young receivers and I expect TE George Kittle to have another Pro Bowl season. The Niners defense is just too good for the Cardinals to keep this game within a touchdown. I have to take San Francisco to cover at home.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (+3) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

This offseason, the Cowboys made a move at head coach, a change that was many years in the making. They fired Jason Garrett and hired former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy. I expect more of a passing attack under McCarthy, but it’s not like QB Dak Prescott will be throwing 40+ times either. He’s a smart coach and will still utilize RB Ezekiel Elliott in games often. This could be a hit for Elliott’s fantasy stock, but if they are passing more, maybe he won’t need 30 carries to crack 100 yards. He could be more efficient if the offense becomes more pass-heavy. The box won’t be stacked on every single down. The Cowboys also made some smart veteran signings on defense. The Rams cut bait with RB Todd Gurley and the running attack will be the Malcolm Brown (and gang) committee. The Rams are still loaded with on defense with DE Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey. This game will be a fun one, but I have to think the Cowboys will play much better with McCarthy on the sideline. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (+6) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have QB Ben Roethlisberger back healthy and the offense will look more like head coach Mike Tomlin’s past teams. We should see what Pittsburgh’s young, talented wide receivers were born to do this year. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and James Washington could be the best young receiving trio in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh LB J.J. Watt should continue to improve into a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Giants were pretty bad in QB Daniel Jones rookie year. He has a new head coach this season after the Giants hired Joe Judge to coach the team. He was the New England Patriots special teams coordinator for many years. Jones also has former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett as his offensive coordinator. I expect Giants RB Saquon Barkley to receive an extra workload under Garrett’s play-calling. The Steelers are a better overall team than the Giants right now. New York needs a few more playmakers on the defensive end to be consistently competitive against playoff-caliber teams. I’m taking the Steelers to cover on Monday night. 

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (+2.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Titans made an improbable playoff run after turning to QB Ryan Tannehill to start and deciding to run their offense through RB Derrick Henry. Teams will be ready for Henry this season, so Tannehill could be looked on to throw the ball more. The Titans also made a big move by trading for LB Jadeveon Clowney. They needed a playmaking linebacker, so it was a smart move. The Broncos officially handed the keys to QB Drew Lock. They also added pieces RB Melvin Gordon and rookie WR Jerry Jeudy on that side of the ball. I loved Lock in college and thought he showed some talent when he started a few games last season. He can lean on running backs Gordon and Phillip Lindsay this year and I think TE Noah Fant could have a breakout season. This game could be close and think it will be a letdown for the Titans. I’m taking the points in the late game on Monday night.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 0-0-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob