I went 9-5-1 in Week 15 of the NFL football season.

We have three games on Christmas Day this year. The NFL is putting the screws to the NBA, who once dominated the holiday.

I am fighting my way back to avoid my first losing season in all the years I’ve been posting my picks against the spread. Last week’s games helps close the deficit to just three games. That can easily be made up with two more of the regular season and the playoffs left.

We have a pair of new third-string quarterbacks taking the ball this week. The Commanders and Chiefs will both have new faces under center.

Can the Bears clinch the NFC North?

We pick almost every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (+8) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys -8

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -7.5

The Detroit Lions (8-7, 7-8 ATS) are coming off a 29-24 home loss to the Steelers, which failed to cover the -8 spread.

The Minnesota Vikings (7-8, 7-8 ATS) are coming off a 16-13 road win over the Giants, which covered the -2.5 spread.

The Lions desperately need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. The Vikings have been eliminated, but have been red hot since they were shutout in late-November. The Vikings will be without a trio of stars, TE T.J. Hockenson, RB Jordan Mason and C Ryan Kelly. The Lions should rebound with a cover against the ailing Vikings.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) – My pick is 

The Denver Broncos (12-3, 6-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-20 home loss to the Jaguars, and failed to cover the -3.5 spread.

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-9, 5-10 ATS) are coming off a 26-9 road loss to the Titans, and failed to cover the -3.5 betting line.

The Chiefs are starting third-string QB Chris Oladokun after seeing their two previous quarterbacks suffer ACL knee injuries. They will also be without WR Rashee Rice and a pair of cornerbacks, who all landed on IR. I hate taking a point spread this large against a very good NFL head coach. The Chiefs are too banged up, and the Broncos are still playing for home-field advantage. I’m taking the Broncos to cover on the road.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) – My pick is 

The Houston Texans (10-5, 8-7 ATS) are coming off a 23-21 home win over the Raiders, but failed to cover the -14 spread.

The Los Angeles Chargers (11-4, 8-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-17 road win over the Cowboys, and was a win against the +1.5 betting line.

Both of these teams are playing their best at the right time. The Texans were nearly caught overlooking the Raiders, but pulled out the win. I’ve been betting against the Texans a lot this year, and it has bit me in the butt a lot. I think their defense will do well against the Chargers. I’m taking the points.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -3

The Baltimore Ravens (7-8, 5-10 ATS) are coming off a 28-24 home loss to the Patriots, and failed to cover the -4 spread.

The Green Bay Packers (9-5-1, 5-9-1 ATS) are coming off a 22-16 road loss to the Bears, and was a loss against the +1 betting line.

The Ravens are still in the playoff race, but they are holding on by a thread. They will need to win out, and need a lot of help. The Packers haven’t clinched anything at the moment, but they are in with a win. The Packers are playing well right now, but they have lost back-to-back games. Their schedule was back-loaded with stud opponents. I think they will cover and clinch a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6. 8-7 ATS) are coming off a 29-24 road win against the Lions, and was a win against the +8 spread.

The Cleveland Browns (3-12, 6-9 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 home loss to the Bills, but was a win against the +10.5 betting line.

The Steelers are a win away from an AFC North crown, which looked like a longshot a few weeks ago. They lucked out that the rest of their division were destroyed by injuries, and were the Browns. The Steelers have enough veterans to keep the team from overlooking an inexperienced Browns team. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the road.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+13) – My pick is New England Patriots -13

The New England Patriots (12-3, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 28-24 road win over the Ravens, and was a win against the +4 spread.

The New York Jets (3-12, 8-7 ATS) are coming off a 29-6 road loss against the Saints, and was a loss against the +7 betting line.

The Jets will start QB Brady Cook again, and he will be running for his life. He holds the ball too long, and the Jets offensive line has been rough. The Patriots still need to compete at full-strength, since they have yet to secure homefield advantage. I hate double-digit spreads, but I’m more comfortable in Weeks 17 & 18. I’m taking the Patriots to cover on the road.

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+2.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints -2.5

The New Orleans Saints (5-10, 7-8 ATS) are coming off a 29-6 home win over the Jets, and covered the -7 spread.

The Tennessee Titans (3-12, 6-8 ATS) are coming off a 26-9 home win over the Chiefs, and was a win against the +3.5 spread.

These two teams were the worst in the league to start the year. The Saints made a smart decision to go with rookie QB Tyler Shough, and the Titans are starting to make games close against above-average teams. I think the Saints will stay hot and cover on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (+5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8, 5-10 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Panthers, and failed to cover the -3 spread.

The Miami Dolphins (6-9, 7-8 ATS) are coming off a 45-21 home loss to the Bengals, and was a loss against the +3.5 spread.

The Bucs are finally getting healthy, but it might be too late. They aren’t eliminated from the NFC South race, but they will need to win-out and need the Panthers to lose. The Dolphins started off solid in last week’s game with rookie QB Quinn Ewers. They fell off a cliff after halftime, getting outscored 28-7. The Bucs should be able to throw on the Dolphins secondary. I’m taking the Bucs to cover on the road.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+7) – My pick is Carolina Panthers +7

The Seattle Seahawks (12-3, 10-5 ATS) are coming off a 38-37 home win over the Rams, but failed to cover the -2 spread.

The Carolina Panthers (8-7, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Buccaneers, which was a win against the +3 betting line.

The Seahawks are arguably the best team in the NFC right now. I think sportsbooks have caught on, and they are now overvalued against the spread. The Panthers are battling for the NFC South, and need a win to help themselves. I think this one will be closer than a touchdown, so give me the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4, 10-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-20 road win over the Broncos, which won against the +3.5 spread.

The Indianapolis Colts (8-7, 8-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 48-27 home loss to the Niners, which was also a loss against the +3.5 spread.

The Jaguars have yet to clinch the AFC South, and the Colts are holding on a longshot of a playoff berth. The Colts are once against starting QB Philip Rivers, who looked pretty darn good in last week’s loss. The Jaguars are on fire right now, and I don’t see them stopping against a banged-up Colts team. I’m taking the Jaguars to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-7) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -7

The Arizona Cardinals (3-12, 6-9 ATS) are coming off a 26-19 home loss to the Falcons, which was a loss against the +2.5 spread.

The Cincinnati Bengals (5-10, 7-8 ATS) are coming off a 45-21 road win over the Dolphins, and covered the -3.5 spread.

It looks like the Bengals are still going full-strength with QB Joe Burrow and the gang. They should do well against a horrible Cardinals defense. I’m taking Cincinnati to cover at home.

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (+1) – My pick is New York Giants -1

The New York Giants (2-13, 7-8 ATS) are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Vikings, which was a loss against the +2.5 spread.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-13, 5-9-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-21 road loss to the Texans, which was a win against the +14 betting line.

This is a tough one. the Giants were a solid bet against the spread when rookie QB Jaxson Dart first took over. They are on a nine-game losing streak (3-6 ATS), but they have faced a rather stout portion of their schedule. Seven of those teams are still in the playoff race. I think the Giants will show up and finish the season on an uptick, I’m taking the Giants on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -1

The Philadelphia Eagles (10-5, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 29-18 road win over the Commanders, which covered the -7 spread.

The Buffalo Bills (11-4, 7-8 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road win over the Browns, but failed to cover the -10.5 betting line.

The Eagles struggled in November, but are coming off back-to-back wins. Sadly, those two wins came against a bad Raiders team, and the short-handed Commanders. The Eagles struggled against good teams before those two cupcakes. The Bills appeared to have solved some of their offensive issues, and have won four of their last five games. The Bills should cover at home.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3) – My pick is Chicago Bears +3

The Chicago Bears (11-4, 10-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 22-16 home win against the Packers, and covered the -1 spread.

The San Francisco 49ers (11-4, 10-5 ATS) are coming off a 48-27 road win over the Colts, and covered the -3.5 betting line.

I view this as a coin-flip game. The Bears are coming off a huge statement win against the Packers. They could be victims of a letdown game, but I think they will beat that. Niners QB Brock Purdy is playing his best right now. It took him a couple weeks after returning, but the Bears defense will cause problems. I assume the Niners will get more bets from the public, but I think the points is the smart play.

Los Angles Rams at Atlanta Falcons (+8) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams +8

The Los Angeles Rams (11-4, 11-4 ATS) are coming off a 38-37 road loss to the Seahawks, which was a win against the +2 spread.

The Atlanta Falcons (6-9, 7-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-19 road win over the Cardinals, which covered the -2.5 betting line.

If this game happened a month ago, the betting line could have been 10.5 or more. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins is playing well, but most of those games were against the Cardinals and Saints. He didn’t fare well against the Seahawks, but is on par with the Rams right now. The Rams should be able to throw dots on the Falcons secondary. I’m taking the Rams to cover on the road.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 107-110-5

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob