I went 6-9 in Week 15 of the NFL football season.

I was extraordinarily late posting my picks, so I wasn’t able to pick the Thursday night game, so I only had 15 picks last week.

I need some big weeks to climb back and avoid my first-ever below .500 season since I started doing this many years ago.

We have some changes at quarterback this week, so there are a few tough games to handicap on the schedule.

We pick almost every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -1.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (+6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -6.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, 8-6 ATS) are coming off a 31-0 home win over the Raiders, and covered the -13 spread.

The Washington Commanders (4-10, 5-9 ATS) are coming off a 29-21 road win against the Giants, which was a win against the +3 spread,

The Commanders surprised me with a win on the road against the Giants, but a lot of things fell their way in that game. They will need the same kind of luck to keep this week’s game close against the Eagles. Philly needs to go a lot of work to get some sort of advantage in the playoffs. I think they will cover on the road.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+1) – My pick is Chicago Bears +1

The Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, 5-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-26 road loss to the Broncos, and failed to cover the -1 spread.

The Chicago Bears (10-4, 9-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-3 home win against the Browns, and covered the -7 spread.

Other than last year’s win against a Packers team that rested their starters, this is the best shot the Bears can beat the Packers in many years. Green Bay lost defensive star Micah Parsons (ACL tear), and the Bears need to keep winning to keep up with the rest of the NFC North. I’m taking the Bears to win outright.

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-4.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints -4.5

The New York Jets (3-11, 8-6 ATS) are coming off a 48-20 road loss to the Jaguars, and failed against the +13 spread.

The New Orleans Saints (4-10, 6-8 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home win against the Panthers, and was a win against the +2.5 spread.

In their last five games, the Saints are 4-1 against the spread, and this is a great match-up for rookie QB Tyler Shough. The Jets fired their defensive coordinator this week, so they are on the ropes. I think the Saints will keep improving and cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+3) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, 5-9 ATS) are coming off a 29-28 home loss to the Falcons, and failed to cover the -6.5 spread.

The Carolina Panthers (7-7, 8-6 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 road loss to the Saints, and failed to cover the -2.5 spread.

The Buccaneers are in a downward spiral. In their last six games, they are 1-5 (0-6 ATS). They lost a lot of their stars on offense in the middle of the season, but they are basically back to 100%. I think they can rebound against an inconsistent Panthers team. I’m taking the Bucs to cover on the road.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (+10) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -10

The Buffalo Bills (10-4. 7-7 ATS) are coming off a 35-31 road win against the Panthers, and covered the -2.5 spread.

The Cleveland Browns (3-11, 5-9 ATS) are coming off a 31-3 road loss against the Bears, and wasn’t close to the +7 betting line.

The Bills finally got their offense humming. They’ve needed to score a lot to inch out wins against the Bengals and Patriots. The Browns have yet to perform well against good teams when rookie QB Shedeur Sanders is under center. I don’t think that trend will stop, so I’m taking Buffalo to cover on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+4.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins +4.5

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-10, 6-8 ATS) are coming off a rough 24-0 home loss to the Ravens, and lost against the +3.5 spread.

The Miami Dolphins (6-8, 7-7 ATS) are coming off a 28-15 road loss to the Steelers, and was a loss against the +3.5 spread.

The Dolphins made a change at quarterback this week by naming rookie QB Quinn Ewers as their starter. He was a solid college quarterback, but he didn’t live up to the sky-high expectations he had coming out of high school. He has a perfect opponent, since the Bengals have a bad defense. Cincinnati still has all their studs on offense, so that does give me pause, but I’m taking the points in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -3

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-8, 5-9 ATS) are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Chargers, and failed to cover the -6 spread.

The Tennessee Titans (2-12, 6-8 ATS) are coming off a 37-24 road loss to the Niners, and was a slight loss against the +12.5 spread.

The Chiefs lost QB Patrick Mahomes (ACL tear) for the year, so they will lean on veteran backup QB Gardner Minshew for the rest of it. I still think the Chiefs can put up points with Minshew under center. People are down on them, but I think they will take care of business against a bad Titans team.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (+3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -3

The Minnesota Vikings (6-8, 6-8 ATS) are coming off a 34-26 road win over the Cowboys, and was a win against the +5 betting line.

The New York Giants (2-12, 7-7 ATS) are coming off a 29-21 home loss to the Commanders, and failed to cover the -3 spread.

The Vikings offense bounced-back after a rough stretch in November. They are coming off back-to-back 30+ performances. The Giants have finally hit the overrated point, and their point spreads have missed by double-digits in back-to-back games. I think the Vikings will fare well, so I’m taking them to cover.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-2) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers +2

The Los Angeles Chargers (10-4, 7-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 13-13 road win against the Chiefs, and was a win against the +6 spread.

The Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1, 7-7 ATS) are coming off a 34-26 home loss to the Vikings, and failed to cover the -5 spread.

I view these teams trending in the opposite directions. The Cowboys may have peaked after beating the Chiefs and Eagles at the end of November. On the flipside, the Chargers continue to find ways to win after losing so many impact players to injury early this season. I think Chargers QB Justin Herbert will be able to throw on the Cowboys secondary. I’m taking the points in this game.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons -2.5

The Atlanta Falcons (5-9, 6-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 29-28 road win against the Buccaneers, and was a win against the +6.5 betting line.

The Arizona Cardinals (3-11, 6-8 ATS) are coming off a 40-20 road loss to the Texans, and was a loss against the +10 spread.

The Cardinals offense hasn’t been the issue, as their defense has given up at least 40 points in back-to-back games. The Falcons are a crazy inconsistent team, so there is some risk here, but I think Falcons veteran QB Kirk Cousins will perform well against a bad Cardinals defense. I’m taking Atlanta to cover on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3) – My pick is Denver Broncos -3

The Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, 9-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 48-20 home win over the Jets, and covered the -13 spread.

The Denver Broncos (12-2, 6-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-26 home win over the Packers, which was a win against the +1 spread.

These two teams might be the hottest teams in the league. Jacksonville are on a five-game winning streak (5-0 ATS), and Broncos are winners in their last ten games (5-5 ATS). The Jags opponents have been against the lower-third of the league. I would be surprised if they are competitive against the Broncos. I’m taking Denver to cover at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-7) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +7

The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6, 7-7 ATS) are coming off a 28-15 home win over the Dolphins, and covered the -3.5 spread.

The Detroit Lions (8-6, 7-7 ATS) are coming off a 4134 road loss against the Rams, and was a loss against the +5.5 spread.

The Steelers continue to show up in games they are not supposed to win. They are crazy inconsistent, but the Lions are also in that category right now. This spread should be closer to a field goal, so I’ll taking the value here and taking the points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans (-14) – My pick is Houston Texans -14

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-12, 4-9-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-0 road loss against the Eagles, and was a loss against the +13 spread.

The Houston Texans (9-5, 8-6 ATS) are coming off a 40-20 home win over the Cardinals, and covered the -10 spread.

I didn’t think it was possible, but the Raiders were worse without QB Geno Smith. I usually hate taking a point spread of two touchdowns in an NFL game. I honestly think this line should be closer to twenty, so I’m taking the Texans to cover at home.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3) – My pick is New England Patriots +3

The New England Patriots (11-3, 8-6 ATS) are coming off a 35-31 home loss to the Bills, and was a loss against the +2.5 spread.

The Baltimore Ravens (7-7, 5-9 ATS) are coming off a 24-0 road win over the Bengals, and covered the -3.5 spread.

I’m not sure how this is possible, but the Ravens shutout win was the most unimpressive shutout I’ve witnessed. The offense was stuck in second-gear, but their defense stepped up with a few turnovers. The Patriots are undervalued against the spread following their first loss since September. I think they will bounce-back, so I’m taking the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (+6) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers -6

The San Francisco 49ers (10-4, 9-5 ATS) are coming off a 37-24 home win over the Titans, and covered the -12.5 spread.

The Indianapolis Colts (8-6, 8-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 18-16 road loss to the Seahawks, but was a win against the +13 betting line.

The Colts are expected to give QB Philip Rivers another start. He was ‘fine’ in his first start in nearly five years, but his arm just didn’t have any juice left. I don’t think he will fare well against the Niners defense. I’m taking the 49ers to cover on the road.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 98-105-4

Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob