I went 7-6-2 against the spread during the tenth week of the 2025 NFL season.

The betting lines were extremely close to the actual outcomes last week. We will start to see this more as sportsbooks and bettors are dialing in on teams.

We saw some injuries at quarterback the last few weeks, The Falcons lost QB Michael Penix for the year, and Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers broke his wrist. On the flipside, the Giants will get rookie QB Jaxson Dart back from concussion.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+6) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -6

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings +6.5

The Minnesota Vikings (4-6, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 19-17 home loss to the Bears, and failed to cover the -2.5 spread.

The Green Bay Packers (6-3-1, 3-7 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 road win to the Giants, but barely failed to cover the -7.5 spread.

The Packers have been an awful betting team this year. They are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games. I think bettors are just waiting for QB Jordan Love and the defense to live up to expectations this year. I think the Packers may win outright, but I think the Vikings should be able to run the ball to keep it close. I’m taking the points on Sunday

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-2.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears -2.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 374-12 home win over the Bengals, and covered the -5.5 spread.

The Chicago Bears (7-3, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 19-17 road win over the Vikings, and was a win against the +2.5 betting line.

The Bears have been a big surprise this year. The defense is better than we all expected, and QB Caleb Williams has been smarter with the ball. Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers broke his non-throwing wrist last week, and he’s campaigning to play. It’s unknown if that will be successful or not. Rodgers has owned the Bears in his career. This one is tough, but I think I’ll ride the Bears at home.

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (+13.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -13.5

The Seattle Seahawls (7-3, 8-2 ATS) are coming off a 21-19 road loss to the Rams, but was a slight win against the +3 spread.

The Tennessee Titans (1-9, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Texans, but was a win against the +5.5 spread.

I’ve been on the Seahawks bandwagon for awhile now. I was not high on Seahawks QB Sam Darnold this preseason, but it only took me two weeks to change my mind. The Titans have been better since canning their head coach (2-0 ATS). The team know they are auditioning for the next regime, which can change betting outcomes. I think the Seahawks can still cover this bloated spread on the road.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

The Indianapolis Colts (8-2, 6-3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Falcons 31-25 in Germany.

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-5, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 22-19 road loss to the Broncos, and failed to cover the -4.5 betting line.

This is the toughest game to handicap this week. The Colts have been a solid betting team, but betting line are starting to catch up. The Chiefs have to be frustrated after losing back-to-back games outright, and find themselves with their worst record through eleven weeks in a long, long time. The Colts secondary still has holes in it due to injuries. I think the Chiefs can throw on them. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover at home.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10) – My pick is Detroit Lions -10

The New York Giants (2-9. 6-5 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 home loss to the Packers, but was a slight win against the +7.5 spread.

The Detroit Lions (6-4, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 16-9 road loss to the Eagles, and was a loss against the +2.5 betting line.

The Giants hope rookie QB Jaxson Dart (concussion) will start this week. The Giants had a spirited game from backup QB Jameis Winston, who had the lead until the final minutes of the game. The Lions have been a ho-hum team on the road, but have taken care of business at home. I think the Lions will make a surprise cover at home.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (+7) – My pick is New England Patriots -7

The New England Patriots (9-2, 7-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-14 home win over the Jets, but failed to cover the -13.5 spread.

The Cincinnati Bengals (3-7, 3-7 ATS) are coming off a 34-12 road loss to the Steelers, and was a loss against the +5.5 spread.

This game is another toughie, just due to the Bengals inconsistencies. Cincinnati’s defense is awful, but QB Joe Flacco does pull off a great effort in every other game. The Patriots have an eight-game outright winning streak, but the schedule has been one of the easiest in the league. The Saints, Titans, Jets and Browns were among those teams. I think the Patriots can stay hot and cover on the road.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -13.5

The New York Jets (2-8, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 27-14 road loss to the Patriots, but was a win against the +13.5 betting line.

The Baltimore Ravens (5-5, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 23-16 road win over the Browns, but failed to cover the -7.5 spread.

The Jets have officially benched QB Justin Fields, after naming Tyrod Taylor as the starting quarterback. If the Jets still had their best to defensive stars, I’d take them in this game, but the Ravens will exploit these voids. I’m taking the Ravens to cover at home.

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-4) – My pick is Cleveland Browns +4

The Cleveland Browns (2-8, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 23-16 home loss to the Ravens, but was a slight win against the +7.5 spread.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-8, 3-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 33-16 home loss to the Cowboys, and lost against the +3.5 betting line.

I’m not a big fan of QB Shedeur Sanders, but I think the Raiders are still overrated. The Browns will start Sanders after DIllon Gabriel suffered a concussion last week. Sanders played awful in relief, but I expect the Browns will trust their running game and defense without Gabriel. I think the Browns will pressure Raiders QB Geno Smith into poor decisions. I’m taking the points in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals (+3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars -3

The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 35-6 home win over the Chargers, which easily won against the +3 betting line.

The Arizona Cardinals (3-7, 5-5ATS) are coming off a 41-22 home loss to the 49ers, and lost against the +3.5 spread.

The Jaguars continue to be the most inconsistent teams in the league. Before last week’s game, they were 0-3-1 against the spread in their previous four outings. Last week’s blowout win over the Chargers was difficult to see coming. Their defense and running game were the reason for it. QB Trevor Lawrence was still extremely underwhelming. The Cardinals defense has been rough, but they have a better overall offense with QB Jacoby Brissett. I think the Cards will struggle to stop the run, so I’m taking the Jags to cover on the road.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons +1.5

The Atlanta Falcons (3-7, 4-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 home loss to the Panthers, but failed to cover the -3.5 spread.

The New Orleans Saints (2-8, 3-7 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Panthers 17-7.

Whenever two bad teams face each other, this late in the year, it’s a coinflip. The Falcons lost QB Michael Penix (ACL tear) for the year, so Kirk Cousins is taking over. Cousins has been rough in relief this year. If the Falcons focus on the ground game, against a bad Saints run defense, I think they can get the outright win. I’m taking the points in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Philadelphia eagles (8-2, 7-3 ATS) are coming off a 16-9 home win over the Lions, and covered the -2.5 spread.

The Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 33-16 road win over the Raiders, and covered the -3.5 spread.

The Cowboys played extra motivated after the death of Marshawn Kneeland. It helped that they played a bad Raiders team on Monday night. The Eagles defense is carrying the team right now. They’ve limited the Packers and Lions to single-digits, but they haven’t score many more points than that themselves. The Eagles should reverse that this week against a bad Cowboys defense (even with new addition DT Quinnen Williams). I’m taking the Eagles to cover on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -6.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 44-32 road loss to the Bills, and was a loss against the +6 spread.

The Los Angeles Rams (8-2, 7-3 ATS) are coming off a 21-19 home win over the Seahawks, but barely failed to cover the -3 spread.

If the Bucs were healthy, this would be a coinflip game, but their injury report is still long. The Rams have been undervalued all year and have an outright winning streak of five games (4-1 ATS). The Bucs defense won’t be able to limit the Rams enough to keep up, so give me the Rams to cover at home.

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7) – My pick is Carolina Panthers +7

The Carolina Panthers (6-5, 7-4 ATS) are coming off a 30-27 road win over the Falcons, and was a win against +3.5 spread.

The San Francisco 49ers (7-4, 6-5 ATS) are coming off a 41-22 road win over the Cardinals, and covered the -3.5 spread.

It’s been a minute since the Panthers have played on Monday Night Football. They have been a solid betting team of late. They still have a stinker outing every few games. The Niners backup QB Mac Jones has played himself into a potential starting role for a team in 2026. I think the Niners will win this game outright, but the line is a bit bloated. I’m taking the points in this game.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 80-80-4

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob