I went 6-8 against the spread during the tenth week of the 2025 NFL season.

I had a rough start to the games on Sunday, but thankfully, I nearly ran the table after that to keep myself from a disastrous week.

There are some fun games on the schedule, with only two teams out on bye.

The best game could be the Seahawks at Rams, which will help secure the leader in the NFC West.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13) – My pick is New York Jets +13

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins (-2.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -2.5

The Washington Commanders (3-7, 3-7 ATS) are coming off a 44-22 home loss to the Lions, which was a loss against the +8.5 spread.

The Miami Dolphins (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 30-13 home win over the Bills, which easily won against the +8 spread.

The Commanders have a major defensive issue. Head coach Dan Quinn will now take over the defensive play-calling duties. I think the Dolphins will be able to move the ball, even with their own issues on defense. I think the Dolphins can sneak out a cover overseas.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (+7) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -7

The Green Bay Packers (5-3-1, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 10-7 home loss to the Eagles, which was a loss against the +1 spread.

The New York Giants (2-8, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 24-20 road loss to the Bears, but won against the +4.5 spread.

The Giants will be without rookie QB Jaxson Dart (concussion) and will have an interim head coach after firing Brian Daboll. Backup QB Jameis Winston has a big arm, but he is an interception machine. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the road.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers +3.5

The Carolina Panthers (5-5, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 17-7 home loss to the Saints, which wasn’t close to covering the -5.5 betting line.

The Atlanta Falcons (3-6, 4-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-25 loss in Germany to the Colts, which was a push against a +6 spread,

Every time it looks like the Carolina Panthers have had enough, and will dump QB Bryce Young, he pulls through to muddy their decision. I think this is one of those games. The Panthers need to give the ball to RB Chuba Hubbard more. I’m taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 28-23 home loss to the Patriots, and also failed to cover the -2.5 spread.

The Buffalo Bills (6-3, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 30-13 road loss to the Dolphins, and wasn’t close to covering the -8 betting line.

The Bills suffered a rather embarrassing loss to the Dolphins. They were coming off a big win against the Chiefs, so it was a difficult outcome to see coming. The Bucs are still trying to figure out a ground game without RB Bucky Irving. I think the Bucs offense can pass the ball enough to keep this one close, so give me the points.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

The Cincinnati Bengals (3-6. 3-6 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Bears 47-42.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 25-10 road loss to the Chargers, and lost against the +3 spread.

The Steelers defense had a rough outing against the Chargers. Their offense couldn’t overcome that handicap. The Bengals could get QB Joe Burrow back by Thanksgiving, so they just need QB Joe Flacco to come through a little longer. I’m taking the points in this game.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -3

The Chicago Bears (6-3, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 24-20 home win over the Giants, but failed to cover the -4.5 spread.

The Minnesota Vikings (4-5, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 27-19 home loss to the Ravens, and was a loss against the +4.5 betting line.

The Bears are a surprising team with their young offensive weapons coming through week after week. The level of their opponents haven’t been great, but they’ve taken care of business. I think they will keep this game close, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this game ended up as a push. I’m taking the Vikings to cover at home.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -3

The Los Angeles Chargers (7-3, 4-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 25-10 home win over the Steelers, and covered the -3 spread.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 36-29 road loss to the Texans, and also lost against the +1 spread.

The Jaguars continue to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. They can string together back-to-back wins, but then struggle for a few weeks. The Chargers passing offense is still chugging along and QB Justin Herbert is putting together another great year. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+6.5) – My pick is Houston Texans -6.5

The Houston Texans (4-5, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 36-29 home win over the Jaguars, and covered the -1 spread.

The Tennessee Titans (1-8, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Chargers 27-20.

The Texans currently don’t know who will start at quarterback, since QB C.J. Stroud is still in concussion protocol, as of Thursday morning. I think the Texans will still be an effective team with backup QB Davis Mills, so that shouldn’t steer you from betting on Houston. I’m taking the Texans to cover on the road. 

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers -2.5

The San Francisco 49ers (6-4, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 42-26 home loss to the Chargers, and also lost against the +6 spread.

The Arizona Cardinals (3-6, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a 44-22 road loss to the Seahawks, and also lost against the +7.5 betting line.

The Cardinals got down against the Seahawks in a big way. They were behind 35-0 at one point. QB Jacoby Brissett isn’t the kind of quarterback that can make a comeback, so the game was out-of-hand early. The Niners are slowly getting healthy, so I expect them to play better than expected. I’m taking San Francisco to cover on the road.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks +3

The Seattle Seahawks (7-2, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 44-22 home win over the Cardinals, and covered the -7.5 spread.

The Los Angeles Rams (7-2, 7-2 ATS) are coming off a 42-26 road win over the Niners, and covered the -6 spread.

Both of these teams are playing great, but the Seahawks are probably the better overall team right now. I did not expect QB Sam Darnold to play this well, so I was a little hate on the bandwagon. I think this is a coin-flip game, so give me the points.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -7.5

The Baltimore Ravens (4-5, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a 27-19 road win over the Vikings, and covered the -4.5 spread.

The Cleveland Browns (2-7, 3-6 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 road loss to the Jets, and failed to cover the -2 betting line.

The Ravens are just a completely different team with QB Lamar Jackson under center. He makes every facet play better. The defense gets better field position and the morale is way up in Baltimore. The Browns will keep this closer than many expect, but I’m taking the Ravens to cover.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs +4

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-4, 5-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Bills 28-21.

The Denver Broncos (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 10-7 home win over the Raiders, but failed to cover the -8.5 spread.

The Chiefs are fresh off a bye week and should be able to put up enough points to cover this one. The Broncos defense will keep it close, but the Chiefs often come in clutch in the fourth quarter.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions +2.5

The Detroit Lions (6-3, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 44-22 road win over the Commanders, and covered the -8.5 spread.

The Philadelphia Eagles (7-2, 6-3 ATS) are coming off a 10-7 road win over the Packers, and covered the -1 betting line.

The Lions are playing great and their only losses have come against the best teams in the league. The Eagles have turned the page and won a battle against the Packers. This is a coin-flip game, but I think the Lions have a shot of winning this game outright, so I’m taking the points.

Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys -3.5

The Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1, 4-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Cardinals 27-17.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, 3-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 10-7 road loss to the Broncos, but won against the +8.5 spread.

The Raiders defense played great against the Broncos, but their offense continues to disappoint. The Cowboys will be able to put up crooked numbers on the Raiders, and I’m not sure Vegas can keep up. I’m taking Dallas to cover on the road.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 73-74-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob