I went 7-9 against the spread during the fourth week of the 2025 NFL season.

I started out pretty rough with the early games, but nearly caught up with the late games on Sunday. I split the Monday night games, so I came up a game short of .500.

This is the start of the bye weeks, so we have four teams on bye. We also have a lame early-Sunday game in London, which have largely been dull outings.

Will the Lions cover a double-digit spread against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-8) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams +8

Minnesota Vikings vs Cleveland Browns (+3.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -3.5

The Minnesota Vikings (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 24-21 loss to the Steelers in Ireland, which was a loss against the -2.5 spread. The Vikings offense didn’t wake up until it was too late. They scored the final fifteen points of the game, but needed a three-and-out to get another chance for points. I was as shocked as most that QB Carson Wentz threw for 350 yards against a good Steeler defense.

The Cleveland Browns (1-3, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 road loss to the Lions, which was also a loss against the +10.5 spread. It was another stinker of a game for QB Joe Flacco. They did get some glimmers of hope from RB Quinshon Judkins play, but Browns fans didn’t have much to be happy about. It was reported this week that the Browns will start rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, which may give them a spark.

(This game will be played in London, England).

The Vikings were able to hang out in Europe for an extra week, so they won’t be as jetlagged as the Browns. Also, I think the Vikings defense will do well against the rookie quarterback. The Vikings secondary will give him a lot of different defensive looks. I think the Vikings will cover this one in London.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Denver Broncos (2-2, 1-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-3 home win over the Bengals, which easily covered the -7.5 spread. It was a great all-around performance from Denver. QB Bo Nix shined, while his backfield choked down the clock in the second-half. Denver’s defense bounced-back after two close losses.

The Philadelphia Eagles (4-0, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-25 road win over the Buccaneers, which was a win against the -3.5 point spread. The Eagles almost ran out of steam in this game. The Bucs passing attack caught fire in the second-half. They had two 70+-yard touchdown receptions in the third quarter. The Eagles didn’t stress or change their gameplan. RB Saquon Barkley was largely bottled up, but QB Jalen Hurts had more success on the ground.

The Eagles haven’t been blowing teams out, as every game has been within a touchdown. I don’t think they are in the Chiefs “playing down to their opponents” mindset, but as a public team, they won’t get favorable betting lines…but I do think this one has a little value left on the bone. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders +7

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-3, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 25-24 home loss to the Bears, which failed to cover the -1.5 spread. It was a back-and-forth battle, but QB Geno Smith just turned the ball over too many times. There was a glimmer of hope, as RB Ashton Jeanty continues to improve. He gained 138 yards and three total touchdown, with one of them being a 64-yard rushing touchdown.

The Indianapolis Colts (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 road loss to the Rams, which was a loss against the +3.5 point spread. The Colts secondary was exploited late in the loss. It didn’t help that QB Daniel Jones threw two picks and they lost a fumble. The Colts probably should have played a little more conservative on offense, but their secondary couldn’t make a stop in the final minutes of the game.

The Colts will likely win this game outright, but I think the Raiders will be able to move the ball through the air. If they want to keep it close, Smith will need to be more conservative. He has TE Brock Bowers, which he needs to feed. I’m taking the points in this game.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (+2.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys -2.5

The Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 40-40 tie at home, but was a win against the +6.5 spread. It was a fun game to watch as a fan. Both teams were coming off losses, and it seems that they were caught in trap games. The teams were amped up for this one after the whole LB Micah Parsons trade and banter. I continue to believe RB Javonte Williams is a great fit in this offense.

The New York Jets (0-4, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 27-21 road loss to the Dolphins, which was a loss against the +2.5 spread. It was an overall sloppy game, with the biggest news was the injured knee of Dolphins WR Tyreek Hills. Jets QB Justin Fields returned from injury and got them within a touchdown in the final minutes. 

The Cowboys defense definitely has a lot of holes, but I’m not sure if the Jets are built to exploit them. It’s clear that the Cowboys can only win games if they can put up 30+ points. Their offense played pretty darn well against the Packers, and they will come into this with a lot of confidence. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover on the road.

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-2.5) – My pick is New York Giants +2.5

The New York Giants (1-3. 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 21-18 home win, which was a win against the +6 spread. It was a surprising outcome in rookie QB Jaxson Dart’s NFL debut. He wasn’t great through the air, but they were able to keep the Chargers defense on their heels. Unfortunately, the Giants lost WR Malik Nabers to a torn ACL, so they will need someone to step up to become a WR1 weapon.

The New Orleans Saints (0-4, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-19 road loss against the Bills, but was a win against the +14.5 spread. The Saints took advantage of a bloated spread, but they did make strides on the ground game. QB Spencer Rattler was handcuffed with short passes, but it might be how the Saints can squeeze out a couple outright wins at some point this year.

I’m not a fan of either of these teams, but the Giants have a little more going for them right now. This is an easy ‘take the points’ game in this situation with two young, inconsistent quarterbacks on bad teams.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (+1) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens +1

The Houston Texans (1-3, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 26-0 home win over the Titans, which easily covered the -7.5 spread. The Titans offense never got off the bus, and the Texans spent most of the game their themselves. QB C.J. Stroud was able to push the ball downfield with two passing touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Also, RB Woody Marks should get more work going forward.

The Baltimore Ravens (1-3, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 37-20 road loss to the Chiefs, which failed against the -2.5 spread. The Ravens have had one of the hardest schedules in the entire league. They’ve played Buffalo, Detroit and Kansas City, which is crazy to front-load a schedule like that. QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring) is expected to miss this game, but it’s currently too early in the week to be definite. The Ravens did splurge this offseason and signed QB Cooper Rush, who is one of the best backups in the league.

Even if Jackson isn’t able to play, I think Baltimore will be just fine against Houston. The Ravens are underrated with the casual bettor, as they mostly just keep an eye on records, and the news of Jackson’s injury definitely scares them away. If you hold off on betting until the Ravens officially rule him out, you’ll probably get a few points slide in your favor. I’m taking the points in this game.

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (+1) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -1

The Miami Dolphins (1-3, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 27-21 home win over the Jets, which covered the -2.5 spread. It was a nice breakout game for TE Darren Waller, who was signed right before the start of the season. They will need him to step up after losing WR Tyreek Hill, who tore multiple ligaments in his knee in a gruesome injury. On defense, it was their fewest points so far this season.

The Carolina Panthers (1-3, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 42-13 road loss to the Patriots, which wasn’t even close to the +5.5 spread. It was a horrible, no good, very bad game for the Panthers. It was like as if they gave up after the Patriots ran back a punt return for a touchdown. New England scored 35 unanswered points, and the Panthers threw in the towel by benching QB Bryce Young late in the game. I still don’t know if Young is bad or if the team is just bad…or both.

This game is a bit unpredictable, so it’s difficult to handicap. You have the Dolphins whose pass defense is a step above garbage for most of the year, and the Panthers, who is maybe another bad game away from ditching Young altogether. I think the Dolphins will focus more on the run, and could win this game outright, so I’m taking the point.

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals -7.5

The Tennessee Titans (0-4, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 26-0 road loss to the Texans, which also lost against the +7.5 spread. Their defense kept it close enough for three quarters, but they ran out of gas in the fourth. Rookie QB Cam Ward had a bad game all-around. He only completed ten of 26 passes for 108 yards and an interception.

The Arizona Cardinals (2-2,2-2 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Seahawks, which was a loss against the +1.5 spread. They got out to a rough start with WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and QB Kyler Murray struggled to get on the same page. Both of Murray’s interceptions were due to Harrison’s miscues. He showed up big in the fourth quarter and nearly forced overtime, but Seattle fit a field goal with no time remaining.

It’s possible that we saw a preview of this game last week when the Titans lost to the Texans. It’s possible the Titans will have trouble putting up points, and the Cardinals have enough talent on both sides of the ball to have the advantage. I think Murray will have a big game and cover at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-25 home loss to the Eagles, which was a loss against the +3.5 spread. It took a bit for the Bucs offense to wake up, but they connected on two long receiving touchdowns in the second-half to close the deficit. RB Bucky Irving is doing well with the increase in snaps this year. QB Baker Mayfield was a little too inconsistent, and you can’t beat the Eagles by barely connecting on 50% of your passes.

The Seattle Seahawks (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road win over the Cardinals, which covered the -1.5 spread. QB Sam Darnold has been pretty solid in his time in Seattle. I wasn’t expecting much from him, especially without WR D.K. Metcalf, who was traded away in the offseason. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has really stepped up as the WR1.

I think the Bucs are a little underrated heading into this game. A lot of people watched them lose to the Eagles, and probably left them with bad expectations. I think Mayfield will be more efficient, and Irving will have a solid outing (Bucky has been ruled out). I’m still taking the points in this game.

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -10.5

The Detroit Lions (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 home win over the Browns, which was a win against the -10.5 spread. The Lions took care of business, and their offense is humming along. They had some issues running the ball at times, but the game was largely in control by halftime.

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-2, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a 28-3 road loss to the Broncos, which was a loss against the +7.5 spread. The Bengals offense is in rough shape with QB Jake Browning under center. Cincinnati called a safer gameplan, but it gave them zero chance to compete. They will struggle if they continue this way, and they need to make a trade before the season is too far gone.

This should have been a fun game to watch, but Joe Burrow’s injury really makes this one an easy pass. The Lions should pad a nice lead by halftime and coast the rest of the game. I’m taking the Lions to cover this one on the road.

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -3

The Washington Commanders (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 34-27 road loss to the Falcons, which failed to cover the +2.5 spread. The Commanders defense had a rough day, as Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. threw for 313 yards and his backfield racked up 126 yards on the ground. Backup QB Marcus Mariota wasn’t making the throws he made against the Raiders. The Commanders missed QB Jayden Daniels (knee), but it appears he was cleared to play this for this weekend’s game.

The Los Angeles Chargers (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-18 road loss to the Giants, which was a loss against the -6 spread. It was a rough outing for QB Justin Herbert, who threw two picks, and failed on too many third downs. They did see rookie RB Omarion Hampton eclipse 100 yards on the ground and a rushing touchdown. The Chargers pass rush was able to get to Giants rookie quarterback six times, with LB Tuli Tuipulotu getting four of them.

I like both of these teams, and you’ll probably see them both in the playoffs. My issue right now is with the Commanders defense. They allowed Penix to railroad them, which was surprising. He was coming off a recent benching, so it was a head-scratching outcome. I expect Chargers QB Justin Herbert to have a solid game. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home. 

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-8) – My pick is New England Patriots +8

The New England Patriots (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 42-13 home win over the Panthers, which easily covered the -5.5 spread. It was a dominant performance by the Patriots. The Panthers were just disheartened after Marcus Jones ran back a punt return for a touchdown. The Patriots defense just choked the Panthers out, and they gave up by halftime.

The Buffalo Bills (4-0, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 31-19 home win over the Saints, which failed to cover the -14.5 spread. The Bills nearly got caught flat-footed after getting out to a large lead. The Saints inched their way back within two points, but the Bills finished strong with ten-straight points to end the game. The game shouldn’t have been this close, but the Bills missed on a few too many third downs.

I think the Bills will win this game outright, but that extra point is scaring me. These teams know each other so well, and it’s hard to cover a touchdown spread, as a public team, against a divisional opponent. I’m taking the points in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a 37-20 home win over the Ravens, which was a win against the +2.5 spread. The Chiefs surprised me by being able to pass against the Ravens. QB Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdowns and racked up 270 yards. They needed a lot from that position, as the ground game was pretty rough for most of the game.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-21 road win over the Jaguars, which was a win against the +3.5 spread. I’ve bashed Trevor Lawrence a lot this season, but I liked his role in the win. They focused on getting the ball to RB Travis Etienne Jr., and didn’t force any passes. Also, his defense stepped up with some turnovers. Lawrence might be more of a game manager QB, than the game-changing quarterback many assumed he would become.

I would have assumed this line would have been much closer to a touchdown, so I’m loving the Chiefs against the spread. The Jaguars offense can always grind down to a crawl. I don’t trust Lawrence against the Chiefs either, so I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 158-120-8
2025: 33-29-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob