I went 11-5 against the spread in Week 18.
Week 18 was a case in backwards thinking. A lot of bad teams won and ruined their draft stock. Bad teams/franchises tend to make things worse for themselves and I bet on a lot of those teams to do just that.
It’s important to look at weather reports, the strength of opponents down the stretch and injury reports before placing your bets.
Can the Commanders continue to surprise and cover against Tampa Bay?
We pick every NFL Wild Card game against the spread and throw out a few upsets for the 2024-25 NFL weekend of playoff action.
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (+2.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers -2.5
The Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, 12-5 ATS) ended the season against two cupcake teams to secure their playoff spot. There was a point midseason that they did not look like a probable playoff team. They had a tough stretch against division-leading teams and lost most of those contests.
The Houston Texans (10-7, 7-8-2 ATS) won the worst division in the NFL. They didn’t particularly play well against any of the teams that made the playoffs this year. RB Joe Mixon hit a wall a few weeks ago and QB C.J. Stroud desperately misses WR Tank Dell (knee). They are not playing their best right now.
The Chargers started the year off hammering the running game, but defenses adjusted and they are replying on the arm of QB Justin Herbert more. I think they can relieve Herbert a bit and feed their backfield to a victory. I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-10) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers +10
The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 11-6 ATS) backed into the postseason with four-straight losses. They had to battle a who’s who of playoff teams, and a motivated Bengals team. Their offense hadn’t put up more than 17 points since mid-December. I still have a lot of respect for the Steelers defense in colder weather.
The Baltimore Ravens (12-5, 10-6-1 ATS) needed to win in Week 18, and they faced a third-string Browns team. The Ravens are playing great heading into the postseason. RB Derrick Henry didn’t hit an age wall this season and QB Lamar Jackson racked up impressive combined yard totals.
These teams split their two meetings this season. The Ravens beat the Steelers 34-17 on December 21st, so that outcome is fresh in bettors minds. I expect Baltimore to come out of this game with a win, but the double-digit point spread is a bit too bloated for me. I’m taking the points in this game.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -8.5
The Denver Broncos (10-7, 12-5 ATS) have been able to take care of bad teams this year, but haven’t struggled against probable playoff squads. They did just shutout the Chiefs last week, but Kansas City had nothing to play for and rested everyone they could. Denver is still a very young team and may have ‘happy to be here’-itis.
The Buffalo Bills (13-4, 10-7 ATS) were arguably playing the best football in the entire league to finish the year. They were winning (and covering) against bad teams and winning outright (and occasionally covering) against the better ones. QB Josh Allen had an MVP-caliber season this year.
The Bills are clicking and the Broncos pass defense could be an issue at points in this contest. It will be a battle of strengths, and I’d have to give Allen a slight edge. As far as Broncos QB Bo Nix is concerned, rookie quarterbacks rarely perform well in their first playoff team. He could buck the trend, but I’m taking the Bills to cover at home.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
The Green Bay Packers (11-6, 9-8 ATS) rested their starters for most of their 24-22 loss in Week 18. They’ve been one of the most unpredictable betting teams this year. They would go on streaks of losses against the spread to then going on a winning streak of cashing in winners. I don’t like their offense as much without WR Christian Watson (knee).
The Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 11-6 ATS) rested their starters in Week 18 and decided the rushing record wasn’t worth the risk. It would have been a nice feather in the cap for RB Saquon Barkley and the offensive line. I expect if they get a ring this year, they won’t even bat an eye about it.
The Packers won their lone meeting this year, but it was disgustingly early in the year, so don’t put much weight in that win. The Eagles are built for a playoff run in the outstanding NFC. The Packers come into this game walking wounded, so I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – My pick is Washington Commanders +3
The Washington Commanders (12-5, 10-6-1 ATS) were heavily-favored to win just a handful of games going into this season. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has been very good in his debut season. He had some growing paints midseason, but he led the Commanders to five-straight wins (3-2 ATS) to end the year and get a spot in the playoffs. They only faced one playoff team in that stretch, but one of those were a win over the Eagles.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7, 10-7 ATS) come into the playoffs with very little expectations. They won the second-worst division and needed to go 6-1 to finish the year to win the NFC South. They’ve corrected their running game issues and rookie QB Bucky Irving eclipses 1,100 yards.
This is one of the most unpredictable games for me to handicap. I think this could come down to the Bucs inability to stop the pass. I’m expecting a back-and-forth, fun game on Sunday night, but I think I’m going to take the points in this game.
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams (+2) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -2
The Minnesota Vikings (14-3, 10-7 ATS) lost a tough one to end the season. Had they beaten the Lions, they would have won the NFC North and had a bye week. It wasn’t even a close contest. I’m not sold that QB Sam Darnold could win close games in the playoffs. The Vikings have won in spite of him a couple times downs the stretch.
The Los Angeles Rams (10-7, 9-8 ATS) have relied on their defense since their shootout win against the Bills in early-December. I wouldn’t suggest that their defense is even good, but they held some bad teams to single-digits in recent weeks. The Rams has some holes in their secondary and I’m not sure if they will be able to cover the Vikings large receivers.
The last time the Rams have looked like a playoff team was in their Bills win. That was a month ago, so that’s a lifetime in football years. If Darnold can take care of the ball, and find mismatches, the Vikings should cover this one in Arizona (due to wildfires).
These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 149-116-7
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob