I had a rough 8-7-1 record against the spread in Week 16.

First off, to have a Wednesday afternoon game this late in the season is just psychotic. Teams like to keep things more secret this time of the year. It’s insanely difficult to handicap games on Tuesday night for games that mostly happen on Sunday.

We have games nearly every single day from Christmas Day through Sunday. I’m not sure if I want these Christmas Day games to be a hit or not since games will end up on Tuesdays and Wednesday a few times each decade.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+5.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens -5.5

The Baltimore Ravens (10-5, 8-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-17 home win over the Steelers, which covered the -7.5 spread.

The Houston Texans (9-6, 6-7-2 ATS) are coming off a 27-19 road loss to the Chiefs, which was also a loss against the +3.5 point spread. In their last four games, the Texans are 1-2-1 against the spread,

I’ve been down on the Texans for most of the second-half of the year. They haven’t been good against the spread and play in the worst division in the entire league. Their offense also took a big hit losing star WR Tank Dell (knee). The Ravens have had issues covering against probable playoff teams this year. I think they are bucking the trend and the Ravens will cover on the road on Christmas.

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (+3.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks -3.5

The Seattle Seahawks (8-7, 6-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 home loss to the Vikings, which was also a loss against the +2.5 spread. The Seahawks have won, and covered, their last four road games.

The Chicago Bears (4-11, 6-7-2 ATS) are coming off a 34-17 home loss against the Lions, which was a loss against the +6.5 spread as well.

The health of Seahawks QB Geno Smith was the talk around the league before their close loss to the Vikings. He played well, but Vikings WR Justin Jefferson was too much for them. I still feel as if the Seahawks are underrated. The Bears offense still isn’t fixed and they will need to score more than 17 points to keep this one close to the spread. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (+4) – My pick is New England Patriots +4

The Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, 10-5 ATS) are coming off a 34-27 home win over the Broncos, which covered the -2.5 betting line.

The New England Patriots (3-12, 6-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-21 road loss to the Bills, which was a win against the +14 spread. The Patriots have lost five-straight games outright.

The Chargers have the easiest road to a Wild Card playoff berth. They face two ‘cupcake’ opponents and I feel like they could get yipped up against an above average pass defense. The Chargers running game hasn’t been good since RB J.K. Dobbins went down with injury. I’m taking the points in this game.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

The Denver Broncos (9-6, 11-4 ATS) are coming off a 34-27 road loss to the Chargers, which was a loss against the +2.5 line.

The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 24-6 home win over the Browns, which covered the -10 spread. The Bengals have won, and covered, their last three games.

Both of these teams are playing their best football at the right time. The Bengals have always been better than their record would suggest. They had some last-minute collapses in the opening weeks that nearly tanked the season early. Bengals QB Joe Burrow wants his team to lock up his best receivers to long-term deals this offseason. He wants to keep playing well to convince the top brass. This could be a tight game, but I’ll take the Bengals to squeak out cover at home.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams -6.5

The Arizona Cardinals (7-8, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 36-30 road loss to the Panthers, which also failed to cover the -5.5 spread.

The Los Angeles Rams (9-6, 8-7 ATS) are coming off a 19-9 road win over the Jets, which also covered the -3 spread. The Rams have covered in five of their last six games.

The Cardinals have been an inconsistent betting team this year. A lot of that could stem from their rough road record in the second-half of the year. They have lost outright and 1-2 against the spread in their last three road contests. The Rams are playing outstanding right now and should take advantage of the Cardinals struggling pass defense. I’m taking the Rams to cover at home.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-9) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -9

The Dallas Cowboys (7-8, 6-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-24 home win over the Bucs, which was a win against the +4 spread. Over the last five games, the Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread.

The Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 36-33 road loss to the Commanders, which failed to cover the -4 line.

The Cowboys have improved since the last time they faced the Eagles. QB Cooper Rush has gained confidence and no longer has happy feet in the pocket. That being said, the Eagles ground game will trounce the Cowboys porous run defense. Rush can beat below-average teams, but the Eagles are still playing for playoff position. The Eagles are currently still unsure about QB Jalen Hurts (concussion), but I think backup QB Kenny Pickett should still implement the gameplan. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints (+1.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints +1.5

The Las Vegas Raiders (3-12, 6-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 19-14 home win over the Jaguars, which covered the -2.5 spread. The Raiders won their first game outright since early-October.

The New Orleans Saints (5-10, 6-9 ATS) are coming off a 34-0 road loss to the Packers, which wasn’t even close to the +14 spread.

This is one of a few stinkers on the schedule this week. The Saints followed up a great performance against the Commanders will a complete disaster in Green Bay. The Saints didn’t have RB Alvin Kamara (groin), but he is hopeful to play in this game. I think the Saints bounce-back and keep this one close. I’m taking the points in this game.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-10.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -10.5

The New York Jets (4-11, 5-10 ATS) are coming off a 19-9 home loss to the Rams, which was a loss against the +3 line. Since mid-October, the Jets are 3-7 against the spread.

The Buffalo Bills (12-3, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 24-21 home win over the Patriots, which failed to cover the -14 spread.

The Bills barely escaped with a win the last time they play the Jets. That game was back in mid-October and that feels like a lifetime ago for both teams. The Jets are just waiting for the moment they can end the Aaron Rodgers Era. The Bills are the best team in the league and I still think they can lap the Jets.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers +8.5

The Carolina Panthers (4-11, 7-8 ATS) are coming off a 36-30 home win over the Cardinals, which was also a win against the +5.5 line.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 26-24 road loss to the Cowboys, which failed to cover the -4 spread.

This betting line confuses me, as it’s just way too bloated. The Bucs are coming off a disappointing loss and the Panthers gutted out an overtime win. The Bucs may very well win outright, but this game will be closer than anticipated. I’m taking the points in this game.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (+8.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -8.5

The Indianapolis Colts (7-8, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 38-30 home win over the Titans, which covered the -4 spread.

The New York Giants (2-13, 3-11-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-7 road loss to the Falcons, which wasn’t even close to the +10 line. The Giants have only one win against the spread since mid-October.

The Giants might be the worst team in the league right now. The Colts just faced a bad team, and they almost allowed them back in the game late in the fourth quarter. Colts QB Anthony Richardson needs to entrench himself as the franchise. He needs to end the season on a high note. I’m taking the Colts to cover against a horrible Giants team.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) – My pick is Tennessee Titans +1

The Tennessee Titans (3-12, 2-13 ATS) are coming off a 38-30 road loss to the Colts, which was also a loss against the +4 spread. The Titans have only won one game against the spread since mid-October.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12, 7-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 19-14 road loss against the Raiders, which was also a loss against the +2.5 line. Over their last five games, they are 1-3-1 against the spread.

This is one of the other stinkers on the schedule this week. We are just a couple weeks removed from their last meeting, Titans won 10-6. Titans QB Mason Rudolph started the game rough, but I liked how he didn’t give up. He’s trying to get a job for next season. I’m taking the points in this game.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (+6.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -6.5

The Miami Dolphins (7-8, 6-9 ATS) are coming off a 29-17 home win over the 49ers, which was a win against the +2 spread.

The Cleveland Browns (3-12, 4-11 ATS) are coming off a 24-6 road loss to the Bengals, which was a loss against the +10 line. Over their last seven games, they are 1-6 against the spread.

The Dolphins came out of the toughest stretch of their schedule with a lot of issues. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill has developed a drop issue while he’s dealing with a wrist injury. The Dolphins may have already been eliminated from the playoffs if the Broncos and Chargers both win their games. I’m going to roll the dice and take the Dolphins to cover on the road.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+1) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -1

The Green Bay Packers (11-4, 9-6 ATS) are coming off a 34-0 home win over the Saints, which easily covered the -14 spread. The Packers have covered in five-straight games.

The Minnesota Vikings (13-2, 10-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road win over the Seahawks, which barely covered the -2.5 line. Over their last six games, they are 4-1-1 against the spread.

These two teams are arguably the two hottest teams in the NFC. They last faced each other in late-September, but that was when Packers QB Jordan Love was coming back from injury. I think the Packers will avenge their earlier loss and cover on the road.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons +4

The Atlanta Falcons (8-7, 6-8-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-7 home win over the Giants, which covered the -10 spread.

The Washington Commanders (10-5, 9-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 36-33 home win over the Eagles, which was a win against the +4 spread.

The start of the Michael Penix Jr. Era began with a statement win. The rookie played great and the team looked like the team they were back in October. The Commanders have also rebounded after a midseason tumble. I believe this back between rookie quarterbacks could be one of the more fun games on the schedule. I’m taking the points in this game.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (+4) – My pick is Detroit Lions -4

The Detroit Lions (13-2, 10-5 ATS) are coming off a 34-17 road win over the Bears, which easily covered the -6.5 line. 

The San Francisco 49ers (6-9, 5-10 ATS) are coming off a 29-17 road loss to the Dolphins, which failed to cover the -2 spread. Over their last seven games, they are 1-6 against the spread.

The Lions have a laundry list of players on the injury report and they continue to take care of business. They aren’t covering double-digit spreads, but as long as it’s within a touchdown, I think you have to bet on Detroit.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 131-102-7

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob