I went 10-5-1 against the spread in Week 13.

I wasn’t my usual self on Thanksgiving, by I had a great Sunday with my bets.

We are dealing with a lot of injuries this time of the year. We saw 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence suffer major injuries last week.

We went heavy on the home favorites this week. There are just a lot of hometown value in the lines this week.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans -3.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10, 6-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 home loss to the Texans, which was a push against the spread. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence suffered a concussion on a late-hit that could keep him out for awhile. He has opted for surgery on his injured shoulder, which he injured in Week 9, which will end his season.

The Tennessee Titans (3-9, 2-10 ATS) are coming off a 42-19 road loss to the Commanders, which wasn’t close to the +6 spread. The Commanders got out to a 28-0 lead and Titans QB Will Levis was able to make the score a little less sad. He wasn’t accurate and barely eclipsed 50%, but did throw two touchdowns. They had few opportunities to feed their running backs.

When the Titans can run the ball, they aren’t a bad team. Their issue is they have to bail on that strategy when they are down by double-digits early. I don’t expect that will happen with Jaguars without Lawrence. I’m taking the Titans to cover at home.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings -5.5

The Atlanta Falcons (6-6, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 17-13 home loss to the Chargers, which failed to cover the -1 betting line. I really don’t know what happened to QB Kirk Cousins. He was playing great from Week 2 through October. He has turned into a turnover machine. His defense did their job, but he fell short.

The Minnesota Vikings (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-22 home win over the Cardinals, but failed the cover the -3.5 spread. This was a fun game to watch. I liked what I saw from QB Sam Darnold, who are playing better. He didn’t have much help from his backfield since the Vikings bailed on that gameplan. Minnesota’s defense stepped up on third down in this contest.

Have the Falcons fallen off? They appeared to be on a possible NFC South run, but they hit a wall. It’s still possible they could rebound and contend for their division, but I don’t like Cousins right now. I doubt he will get a morsel of revenge against his former team. I’m taking the Vikings to cover at home.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-13) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -13

The Carolina Panthers (3-9, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 26-23 overtime home loss to the Buccaneers, but was a win against the +6.5 spread. The Panthers haven’t been racking up outright wins, but they have covered in four-straight games. Panthers QB Bryce Young has improved since being benched. This is even after trading away their best receiver.

The Philadelphia Eagles (10-2, 8-4 ATS) are coming off a 24-19 road win over the Ravens, and was also a win against the +3 betting line. RB Saquon Barkley is playing out of his mind right now. He is making a case for some MVP votes. He’s doing this knowing that he isn’t going to get any goal-line carries, due to the Tush Push.

The Panthers are an improved team, but their recent uptick were all home games. I don’t think they have the front-seven talent to stop Barkley and QB Jalen Hurts on the ground. I’m taking the Eagles to cover this bloated spread.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -6

The New York Jets (3-9, 3-9 ATS) are coming off a 26-21 home loss to the Seahawks, which was a loss against the -1.5 betting line. The Jets ran into a confident Seattle defense. The Jets had a 21-7 lead in the second quarter and didn’t score another point. I sound like a broken record, but QB Aaron Rodgers is a shell of his former self.

The Miami Dolphins (5-7, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 30-17 road loss to the Packers, and lost against the -3.5 spread as well. The Dolphins got punched in the face and were instantly down 24-3 at halftime. They tried their best to make a comeback, but the Packers are too disciplined to lose a lead like that.

This is the first of two meetings between the Jets and Dolphins. The Jets defense are ranked #2 against the pass, but they haven’t faced many passing teams this year. The Jets have nice talent in their secondary, but will be pushed to the limit in this game. I’m taking the Dolphins to cover at home.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -7

The Cleveland Browns (3-9, 4-8 ATS) are coming off a 41-32 road loss to the Broncos, which was also a loss against the +6.5 spread. You live by the Jameis, you die by the Jameis. Winston gives the Browns the potential to win more games than another other quarterback on roster. You will also get these games with multiple interceptions and forced throws. You just can’t do that against the Broncos secondary.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3, 9-3 ATS) are coming off a 44-38 road win over the Bengals, which was a win against the +3 spread. It was wild that they were the underdogs in the game. The Bengals have shown that they can’t finish games this year. The Steelers have been a great betting team this year.

I know Steelers/Browns meetings have been tight over the years, but I don’t like Jameis against the Steelers secondary. I would be surprised if this game was close in the fourth quarter. I’m taking the Steelers to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders +7

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-10, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 19-17 road loss to the Chiefs, but was a win against the +13.5 spread. They lost this game in heartbreaking fashion due to a miscommunication between the center and QB Aidan O’Connell. It was a surprising betting outcome since the Raiders were coming off a three-game losing streak against the spread. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6, 7-5 ATS) are coming off a 26-23 overtime road win, but failed to cover against the -6.5 betting line. The Bucs were on the other side of a heartbreaker since they saw Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard fumble within field goal range. The Bucs backfield had a banner day combining for 228 yards on the ground. QB Baker Mayfield has been taking a backseat of late.

The Bucs have been inconsistent against the spread and I can see them failing to cover a touchdown spread. The Raiders are slightly underrated in this game. I think O’Connell will keep it close against a bad Bucs pass defense (ranked 30th). I’m taking the points in this game.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+4.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints -4.5

The New Orleans Saints (4-8, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 21-14 home loss to the Rams, which was a loss against the +2.5 spread as well. The Saints defense didn’t have enough gas to keep the Rams passing offense out of the endzone late in the game. The Saints offense wasn’t bad, but they needed more than field goals in the first-half.

The New York Giants (2-10, 2-9-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 road loss to the Cowboys, which was a loss against the +4 spread as well. This game was closer than I first expected since there were rumors that fourth-string QB Tim Boyle would start. The Giants made the smart decision to go with backup Drew Lock. He is more mobile and was able to extend plays. He led them to within striking distance by scoring ten unanswered points to end the game.

I expect the Saints will throw the kitchen sink at the Giants on Sunday. They’ve been using TE/RB/QB Tayson Hill in unique ways. The Giants defense has been horrid this year and the Saints should do well. I’m taking the Saints to cover on the road.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks +2.5

The Seattle Seahawks (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-21 road win against the Jets, which was also a win against the +1.5 betting line. The Seahawks defense has been outstanding since making some personnel changes a few weeks ago. They were able to make some adjustments at halftime and clamped down on the Jets in the second-half. I didn’t look at them as a contender in the NFC, but they could make a run.

The Arizona Cardinals (6-6, 8-4 ATS) are coming off a 23-22 road loss to the Vikings, but was a win against the +3.5 spread. This was a field goal-kicking contest until Marvin Harrison Jr. caught a touchdown pass in the middle of the 3rd quarter. The game kicked into the next gear and it opened up the scoring. QB Kyler Murray was trying to get the ball to Harrison often, but only connected on five of twelve targets for 60 yards.

I worry that Murray won’t adjust if he can’t get the ball to Harrison again. His target success rate of 26 completion on 33 attempts to his other receivers was great. The Seahawks defense has been great and Murray will need to look for other receivers if he can’t get the ball to MHJ. I’m taking the points in this game, and may put a few jellybeans on the Seattle moneyline.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears +3.5

The Chicago Bears (4-8, 6-4-2 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Lions, but did cover the +10 spread. The poor coaching decisions that led to the loss came at the expense of head coach Matt Eberflus’s job. The Bears will turn to interim head coach Thomas Brown to lead the team the rest of the year. They’ve been a solid betting team since they fired their offensive coordinator, so this could be another positive move.

The San Francisco 49ers (5-7, 4-8 ATS) are coming off a 35-10 road loss to the Bills, which wasn’t close to the +6.5 betting line. The Niners not only lost the game, but RB Christian McCaffrey suffered a PCL knee injury that will end his season. Their injury report is longer than any other team in the league. They are going to have issues the rest of the season.

I love betting on a team the week after they fired their head coach. Vegas is usually down on them and they often overachieve. Also, the Niners injury report scares me, so I’m taking the points.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills -4.5

The Buffalo Bills (10-2, 8-4 ATS) are coming off a 35-10 home win against the Niners, which easily covered the -6.5 spread. The Bills have been on a roll and are on a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS). I once thought the Lions were the best team in the league, but I think Buffalo may have slightly eclipsed them.

The Los Angeles Rams (6-6, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 21-14 road win over the Saints, which covered the -2.5 spread. It was a defensive battle until the Rams made some big plays in the passing game to take the lead in the fourth quarter. Also, RB Kyren Williams had a very good game.

Coming into the year, the Bills had a big question mark in their secondary. They lost a lot of talent, but the new crew stepped up. They are ranked 8th in pass defense and they just re-signed safety Micah Hyde (who will be brought in slowly). Buffalo has the talent to compete with the Rams talented receivers. I’m taking the Bills to cover on the road. 

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

The Los Angeles Chargers (8-4, 8-4 ATS) are coming off a 17-13 road win over the Falcons, and was a win against the +1 spread. Honestly, the Chargers lucked out by playing against a struggling quarterback. The Chargers defense should get credit for Falcons QB Kirk Cousins throwing four picks, but he’s making poor decisions.

The Kansas City Chiefs (11-1, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a 19-17 home win against the Raiders, which wasn’t close to the -13.5 spread. They should have lost this game, but a late fumble by the Raiders sealed their fate. The Chiefs started the year off as a good betting team, but they have now failed to cover in six-straight games. Sportsbooks are swimming in money right now since the Chiefs get a ton of public money.

The Chiefs point spreads have finally came back down to Earth. They’ve been up against touchdown+ betting lines since late-October. They were given points against the Bills, but Buffalo is on fire. I think Kansas City will rebound against the spread and cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals -5.5

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-8, 6-6 ATS) are coming off a 44-38 home win against the Steelers, which failed to cover the -3 spread. Cincinnati didn’t blow a lead in this close game, but matched scores in the second-half. Their defense couldn’t make any stops, which has been a common occurrence this year.

The Dallas Cowboys (4-7, 4-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-20 home win against the Giants, which also covered the -4 spread. They have won back-to-back games and covered both. They are actually getting some production from their running game. Rookie RB Rico Dowdle has averaged over 100 yards during this winning streak. 

This game is difficult to handicap. The Bengals defense is non-existent late in games and the Cowboys had a lot of talent on the injury report. Most of the list are just dealing with nagging injuries, but it’s still alarming. The Bengals have been dealing with a crazy tough stretch of their schedule. They’ve actually taken care of business against average-to-below-average teams. I think they will rebound and cover on the road.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 107-82-6

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob