I went 7-7 against the spread in Week 11.

After a stretch of great weeks, I’ve had back-to-back hiccups. Well, I hope they are hiccups, because I need to turn it around.

I really like this week’s slate of games. There are some fun ones on the schedule, like Ravens/Chargers and Niners/Packers. I don’t love the few double-digit point spreads, but this always happens at this point every year.

Can the Detroit Lions stay hot and cover on the road against the Indianapolis Colts?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears +3.5

The Minnesota Vikings (8-2, 7-3 ATS) are coming off a 23-13 road win over the Titans, which covered the -6 spread. The Vikings may be on a three-game winning streak, but it’s been a rocky one. They haven’t been as bulletproof as they were during their earlier winning streak. QB Sam Darnold has had some rough outings. He was solid against the Titans, but he got zero help from the running game in the win.

The Chicago Bears (4-6, 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-19 home loss to the Packers, which was a win against the +6 spread. The Bears have had a few heartbreaking losses this year. The loss to the Packers on a blocked field goal is beyond rough. The Bears always want to send the Packers home with a loss, but that has happened very often this decade. On the bright side, the offense played better since firing the offensive coordinator.

The Vikings are clearly a playoff team, but they are slowly falling back down a few pegs. Minnesota wasn’t supposed to be this good with Darnold under center, but they came out of the gate on fire. Teams have made adjustments, and they no longer look like one of the best in the NFC. The Bears should be able to keep this one close and I think they’ll rely heavily on RB D’Andre Swift. I’m taking the points in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (+5.5) – My pick is New York Giants +5.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost at home to the Niners 23-20. It was a solid outing, but their offense couldn’t do a lot against the Niners defense. It was a rare low-output day from QB Baker Mayfield. He was playing much better towards the end of the game.

The New York Giants (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, lost 20-17 on the road to the Panthers. The Giants officially benched QB Daniel Jones during their bye week and named QB Tommy DeVito as the starter, over backup Drew Lock. DeVito has some success last year and could fare better with better receivers now.

I expect Tommy Cutlets will get off to a hot start against a below-average Bucs defense. I’m not bullish on the Giants enough to put any jellybeans on the moneyline, but I think they stay within a score. I’m taking the points in this game. 

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-7) – My pick is Miami Dolphins -7

The New England Patriots (3-8, 4-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 28-22 home loss to the Rams, which was a loss against the +4 spread. The Patriots didn’t have an answer for the Rams talented wide receiver duo of Pacua & Kupp. They’ve struggled to contain talented receivers over the last handful of games.

The Miami Dolphins (4-6, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 34-19 home win against the Raiders, which covered the -8 betting line. This was arguably the best game QB Tua Tagovailoa has had since returning from a concussion. It’s clear that he has to rely on other receiving options as WR Tyreek Hill is dealing with a wrist injury. Hill still had a fine outing, but he’s limited.

The Dolphins and Patriots had a snoozer of a game earlier this year, but this was back when they both had different quarterbacks. They are better teams right now, but the Patriots flaws on defense benefits the Dolphins. I’m taking Miami to cover at home.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-9) – My pick is Houston Texans -9

The Tennessee Titans (2-8, 1-9 ATS) are coming off a 23-13 home loss to the Vikings, which was a loss against the +6 spread. The Titans know they don’t have anything else to play for other than a roster spot next year and draft position. QB WIll Levis has been better since returning as the starter, but he’s getting nothing from his backfield.

The Houston Texans (7-4, 5-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 road win against the Cowboys, which covered the -7 spread. The Texans didn’t pull away from the Cowboys until late in the second-half. Texans RB Joe Mixon had one of his best games in uniform by finding the end zone three times in the blowout win.

This could be a close one, but I think the Texans have better overall talent. I was expecting a double-digit point spread, so I’ll take the slight discount here. I’m taking the Texans to cover at home.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (-10.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders -10.5

The Dallas Cowboys (3-7, 2-7-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-10 home loss against the Texans, which was a loss against the +7 betting line. The Cowboys were able to hang with the Texans for awhile. QB Cooper Rush was the only reason why it was close. I still feel he’s one of the better backups in the league, but they’re a one-dimensional offense. They have arguably the worst running game in the NFL. Very little threat of them ever getting into the second-level of a defense.

The Washington Commanders (7-4, 7-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-18 road loss to the Eagles, which was a loss against the +4.5 spread. The Commanders made some big mistakes in the fourth quarter and then gassed out on defense. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley was able to do a lot of damage in the final period.

The Commanders are a legit playoff team and the Cowboys are just hoping to keep their jobs. A big game against the Cowboys, regardless of their talent level right now, would do a lot for Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels rookie of the year stock. I’m expecting a big game from them and a strong cover at home in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (+11) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs -11

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-1, 5-5 ATS) are coming off a 30-21 road loss to the Bills, which was a loss against the +2.5 betting line. The ’72 Dolphins could pop the champagne after the Chiefs were the last of the unbeaten teams to fall. QB Patrick Mahomes had trouble moving the ball against the Bills secondary. The Bills took over in the fourth to seal the win.

The Carolina Panthers (3-7, 3-7 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, won 20-17 at home against the Giants. I still think the Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league, but I really like RB Chuba Hubbard. I’ve praised him many weeks, but this game was impressive. The Giants stacked the box and he still racked up 153 yards on the ground.

I’ve always found it to be relaxing when an unbeaten team finally loses a game. I know the Chiefs have historically been horrible covering double-digit point spreads, but this one is warranted. I still like the Chiefs shot at covering this betting line. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover on the road.

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -7.5

The Detroit Lions (9-1, 8-2 ATS) are coming off a 52-6 home win over the Jaguars, which covered the -14 betting line. The Lions are the best overall team in the league. I’ve been saying that every week since late-September. I still think QB Jared Goff is the frontrunner for the MVP award, even after last week’s horrible interception total.

The Indianapolis Colts (5-6, 8-3 ATS) are coming off a 28-27 road win over the Jets, which was a win against the +4 spread. The Colts had no business to be in a position to win this game. The Colts would have short bursts of production, then disappear for a quarter. The Jets had so much more overall talent, but they are a lost team right now. Colts QB Anthony Richardson had one of his best overall games of his career with 272 yards passing and three total touchdowns.

I realize the Colts have been magically pulling off a lot of unlikely covers, but this one just seems a bit too insane. I full expected to see a double-digit point spread in this game, so I was glad to only see a -7.5 betting line. The Lions are the far better overall team and will cover on the road.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (+5) – My pick is Denver Broncos -5

The Denver Broncos (6-5, 8-3 ATS) are coming off a 38-6 home win over the Falcons, which covered the -2 point spread. I was surprised by this outcome, especially the margin of the win. Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix had his best outing of his career and his defense only allowed 226 total yards.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-8, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 34-19 road loss to the Dolphins, which was a loss against the +8 betting line. The Raiders didn’t even try to run the ball much against the Dolphins. QB Gardner Minshew had a decent performance as he spammed the ball to rookie TE Brock Bowers, That should be his gameplan going forward.

The Broncos have beaten spreads that I didn’t think were possible. It’s clear that Bo Nix is improving and their defense is better than we expected. I still think their depth is questionable, but they’ve largely been staying healthy. I’m taking the Broncos to cover on the road.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers -2.5

The San Francisco 49ers (5-5, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home loss to the Seahawks, which failed to cover the -6 spread. The Niners haven’t been able to string together wins due to all the injuries they’ve faced. They are finally getting back to healthy, but RB Christian McCaffrey isn’t quite all the way back. He’s looked a bit slow cutting at the line. It could be a few more weeks until he’s back to playing like his old self as a back.

The Green Bay Packers (7-3, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 20-19 win against the Bears, which failed to cover the -6 betting line. The Packers should have lost last week, but the Bears have been snake-bitten by late-game bad luck. The Bears were playing the clock game and had the ball 13 minutes more than the Packers. That gameplan nearly paid off for Chicago.

I’m looking forward to watching this game. It think it will be a sleeper fun game to enjoy. I like to watch a lot of the stars and the matchup between the Packers wide receivers and Niners secondary is one I want to see. I think the Packers talented wideouts will have success out there, which will be the key to this cover. I’m taking the Packers to cover at home.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-1) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals +1

The Arizona Cardinals (6-4, 7-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Jets 31-6 at home. It was a dominant performance against the Jets. The Cardinals defense has been playing pretty darn good of late. QB Kyler Murray took advantage of the help and was near-perfect on the day by completing 22 of 24 attempts for 266 yards.

The Seattle Seahawks (5-5, 3-6-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 road win over the Niners, which was a win against the +6 betting line. It was a defensive game, which you wouldn’t expect from Seattle. They’ve been allowing over 30 points per game since early October. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been outstanding the last two games.

I wasn’t high on the Cardinals defense for most of the year, but they’ve been consistent of late. I thought their secondary was aging out, but they’ve found some youth. Arizona is an underrated team, and when Murray is efficient, they are hard to beat. I’m taking the point(s).

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angles Rams (+3) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Philadelphia Eagles (8-2, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 26-18 home win against the Commanders, which covered the -4.5 point spread. It was a true battle of attrition. The Eagles were able to keep RB Saquon Barkley with fresh legs and he put the nail in the coffin with two late touchdowns.

The Los Angeles Rams (5-5, 4-6 ATS) are coming off a 28-22 road win over the Patriots, which covered the -4 betting line. Rams QB Matthew Stafford had an outstanding game with four passing touchdowns and 295 yards. Wide receivers Puka Nacua & Cooper Kupp combined for 229 yards and three touchdowns. 

The Rams passing attack has been outstanding since they got their stars back. I think the Eagles pass defense will limit them. The Rams will still be able to move to the ball with those guys. The reason why the Eagles will cover is their running game. Philly has the best running game in the league and the Rams are average against the run. I’m taking Philly to cover on Sunday Night Football.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers +3

The Baltimore Ravens (7-4, 5-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 18-16 road loss to the Steelers, which was against the -3 spread. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has yet to solve the Steelers riddle. He had one of his worst performances of the year and he didn’t need to do too much more to get the outright win. His defense didn’t allow a single touchdown, but six field goals were able to get the win.

The Los Angeles Chargers (7-3, 7-3 ATS) are coming off a 34-27 home win over the Bengals, which covered the -1 betting line. The Chargers were one of many teams to have score a game-winning touchdown in the final minutes to beat a very good Bengals team this season. QB Justin Herbert has been outstanding against Cincinnati in his career. After a slow start this year, his new coaches are relying on the passing game more and more down the stretch.

This is an unpopular pick, but Herbert will be able to pass on the Ravens. Also, the Chargers have a few former Ravens running backs on the roster. I think they will come in with a lot of motivation. This will be another fun one to watch this week. I’m taking the points on Monday Night Football.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 90-71-5

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob