I went 12-12-1 against the spread in Week 6 of the 2024-25 College Football season.
I wouldn’t normally be too happy with a .500 record after a weekend of college football games, but I feel like I dodged many bullets. There were so many outright upset wins last weekend. I’m thankful that I decided to skip picking the Alabama/Vanderbilt game. If you predicted that outcome, you need to buy some lottery tickets with your earnings.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 7 of the 2024-25 NCAA Football season (October 12th, 2024).
Washington Huskies at Iowa Hawkeyes (-3) – My pick is Washington Huskies
The Washington Huskies (4-2, 3-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-17 home win against Michigan, which covered the -1.5 point spread as the favorite. It was a nice payback game after losing to the Wolverines in the National Championship Game in January. It was a tight game until Washington was able to pull ahead by two scores late in the fourth quarter. The Huskies defense was able to limit Michigan’s rushing attack, as the Wolverines offense is one-dimensional this season.
The Iowa Hawkeyes (3-2, 2.-3 ATS) are coming off a 35-7 road loss to Ohio State, which fell short of the +17 point spread as the underdog. The game was only 7-0 at halftime, but the Buckeyes were able to make adjustments and score three-straight touchdowns in the third quarter. Iowa’s defense is still very good, but they are not at the same level as the previous few seasons. The bright side is their offense has improved from last year, but that was one of the worst I’ve seen from a non-Rutgers Big Ten team.
There is a risk that Washington could be in line for a ‘letdown game’, but I think their offense is strong enough to keep this game close. It wouldn’t surprise me if Washington wins outright, but I’ll play it safe with the points in this game.
Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners (+14.5) – My pick is Texas Longhorns -14.5
The Texas Longhorns (5-0, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Mississippi State at home 35-13. They were favored by 37 points in the game, so it was a disappointment from that aspect. In my opinion, they would have needed to play a perfect game to cover that betting line. RB Jaydon Blue coughed up the ball twice, which was a factor in their first loss against the spread of the season. Backup QB Arch Manning was solid in relief of injured Quinn Ewers, who will be healthy enough to start this weekend’s game.
The Oklahoma Sooners (4-1, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Auburn on the road 27-21. It was a nice bounce-back after losing to Tennessee at home the previous week. It wasn’t a pretty win, as the Sooners appeared to take the first three quarters off. They had some balls go their way and scored 17 unanswered points to end the game. This Sooners squad is light on depth on both sides of the ball, so I wouldn’t bet based on the name prestige.
The Red River Showdown is usually a tight game, regardless of the teams’ records. That wasn’t the case two years ago when Texas won 49-0, but that was the only game that wasn’t within two touchdowns. Is the talent disparity as large as the 2022 squads? Yes, I believe it is, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Texas wins by 20 points, so I’m taking Texas to cover at the Cotton Bowl.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Oregon Ducks (+3) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes -3
The Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 35-7 home win over Iowa, which covered the -17 betting line as the favorite. It was a close game at the half, as the Buckeyes were only up 7-0 when the marching band took the field. QB Will Howard played well against a solid Iowa defense. He threw four touchdown passes with WR Emeka Egbuka developing into one of the better receivers in college football.
The Oregon Ducks (5-0, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 31-10 home win over Michigan State, which was a point-and-a-half shy of the point spread. The Spartans are in a downward trend and the Ducks took care of them with ease. They were up 31-0 early in the fourth quarter and laid off the has. The Spartans scored some garbage time points to win against the spread. QB Dillon Gabriel didn’t really have that great of a game, as he threw two picks and was barely pressured.
Oregon will officially be baptized into the Big Ten by facing one of the monsters in the conference. They’ve had a safe schedule up to this point and their team isn’t up to par with their last few squads. They will beat up on teams like Michigan State and UCLA, but they will struggle against Ohio State. I’m taking the Buckeyes to cover on the road.
Ole Miss Rebels at LSU Tigers (+3.5) – My pick is Ole Miss Rebels -3.5
The Mississippi Rebels (5-1, 5-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-3 road win over South Carolina, which covered the -10.5 point spread as the favorite. They rebounded well after their home upset loss to Kentucky at the end of September. Ole Miss relied heavily on their defense in the win, as QB Jaxson Dart didn’t light up the scoreboard. They relied on the ground game inside the red zone and pound the Gamecocks front-seven.
The LSU Tigers (4-1, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat South Alabama 42-10 at home. It was their first win against the spread, but was expected. They’ve underwhelmed bettors this year, as they haven’t been enthralled with the Tigers defense. QB Garrett Nussmeier has needed to rack up a lot of yards to continuously fall short of the spread.
I’m sure it’s almost automatic to want to bet on LSU at home when they are given this many points, but I think Ole Miss will rack up points on the Tigers defense. The Rebels should pressure Nussmeier and force a couple turnovers. I’m taking the Rebels to cover on the road.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Wildcats (-13.5) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats -13.5
The Vanderbilt Commodores (3-2, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a surprising 40-35 home win over Alabama, which easily covered the +23 point spread as the underdog. I’m not sure if I was alive the last time Vandy beat Alabama as I can’t recall any of their games being close. They got out to a 23-7 lead with a few minutes left before halftime. I thought Vandy would lose steam, which did happen, but they had enough left to score enough points in the fourth quarter to secure the win. Transfer QB Diego Pavia has been efficient and safe with the ball.
The Kentucky Wildcats (3-2, 4-1 ATS) are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Ole Miss 20-17 on the road. I worried about Kentucky’s defense after they started the year off with a 31-6 home loss to South Carolina, but they’ve bee outstanding since that hiccup. If QB Brock Vandagriff is smart with the ball, they should be competitive against anyone in the country.
Vanderbilt is coming off the highest of highs for the program, so this would be the textbook case of a ‘letdown game.’ I don’t know if they will be able to play with the extra gear like they did last week against Bama. Kentucky will be rested and should be able to take care of business at home, so I’m taking the Wildcats to cover.
Boise State Broncos at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+21) – My pick is Boise State Broncos -21
The Boise State Broncos (4-1, 3-2 ATS) are coming off 62-30 home win over Utah State, which covered the -28 spread as the favorite. I wasn’t very high on Boise State going into the season, but they’ve actually improved from their opener. I now understand how QB Maddux Madsen won the competition over transfer QB Malachi Nelson. He didn’t have a great outing against Oregon, but he’s been great ever since.
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-3, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road loss to San Diego State, which was two point shy of the points spread. I thought Hawaii’s offense would be pretty darn good going into the season, but QB Brayden Schager has disappointed me. It’s almost impossible that a Timmy Chang offense isn’t a top-25 passing offense in the country, but they are currently 38th in passing yards. They are passing a lot, but they are not doing much with those attempts. They are 94th in the country in QB rating, so they don’t have the right quarterback to run Chang’s pass-happy offense.
These teams are heading in the opposite directions. Hawaii is falling under expectations and their head coach’s seat is becoming red hot. The Broncos should continue their dominance over Hawaii and cover on the road.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at North Carolina Tar Heels (+6) – My pick is UNC Tar Heels +6
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-14 home win over Duke, which was a push against the spread. They haven’t been a great betting team after the opening week’s then-upset win over Florida State, which is far from a surprise in today’s eyes. QB Haynes King was pedestrian through air in the first three quarters against Duke, but threw two unanswered touchdowns in the fourth to secure the double-digit win. He has been leaning on the running game more and more.
The North Carolina Tar Heels (3-3, 0-5-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-24 home loss to Pittsburgh, which was a touchdown shy of the point spread as the underdog. The Tar Heels have been the worst betting team this season. Their only push was in their opener against Minnesota, so they’re currently in a five-game losing streak against the spread. QB Jacolby Criswell hasn’t been able to fill the shoes of former QB Drake Maye. He isn’t smart with the ball and is currently only completing 56.4% of his passes, which is no bueno.
This game will be won on the ground, and Georgia Tech has the better matchup on the ground. The Tar Heel has allowed some big plays on the ground this season. The Yellow Jackets have the talent to be a problem in that area. I also think their offense is more dynamic and will cause issues for Mack Brown-lead Tar Heels, but there the point spread is too bloated. I’m taking the points in this game.
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-23.5) – My pick is ND Fighting Irish -23.5
The Stanford Cardinal (2-3, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-7 home loss to Virginia Tech, which was far under the +9 point spread as the underdog. They were without starting QB Ashton Daniels, but he is healthy enough to play starting this weekend. Backup QB Justin Lamson struggled against the Hokies, with his arm and his legs. The offense was in rough shape without Daniels under center.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Louisville at home 31-24. They covered the spread by a half-point thanks to the play of QB Riley Leonard. He hasn’t impressed the Notre Dame faithful with his passing ability thus far, but did show a few glimpses against Louisville. On defense, the Irish were able to force two turnovers from Louisville QB Tyler Shough.
The point spread scares me a little, but Notre Dame has been good at covering large spreads against less-talented Power 4 teams since Marcus Freeman took over the team. That wasn’t the case for years under the previous few coaches. I’m taking the Irish to cover at home.
Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers (-15.5) – My pick is Florida Gators +15.5
The Florida Gators (3-2, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 24-13 home win over UCF, which was a win against the spread as the one-point underdog. It’s not a surprise that UCF QB KJ Jefferson struggled against an SEC team, he did that often with his former school. The Gators are a flawed team, but can win and cover against teams if QB Graham Mertz plays the ‘game manager’ role.
The Tennessee Volunteers (4-1, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a disappointing 19-14 road loss to Arkansas, which was far from -14 betting line as the favorite. It was an ugly game from the start, but the the offenses were finally able to put up some points late in the game. The Razorbacks weren’t racking up big gains on offense, but they had a ten-minute time of possession advantage. They just continued drives by averaging a touch over three yards per carry. It was a frustrating way to lose a game.
As I said above, if the Gators are smart with the football, they can contend with just about any team. They saw what Arkansas did last week and they have the talent to replicate that gameplan. I expect Tennessee to win outright, but I could see Florida scoring some garbage time points, so give me the points.
*Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden Flashes (+6.5) – My pick is Ball State Cardinals -6.5
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Ball State Cardinals (1-4, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 45-42 home loss to Western Michigan, which was a a win against the spread as the ten-point underdog. MAC schools traditionally play a tough non-conference schedule to begin the year, so they are a tricky conference to handicap once they start to play each other. Ball State got whooped by Miami (FL) and James Madison this year, but have played Western Michigan and Central Michigan within a field goal each in losing efforts. QB Kadin Semonza has some raw talent, but the sophomore made too many mistakes the last two weeks.
The Kent State Golden Flashes (0-5, 0-5 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they lost at home to Eastern Michigan 52-33. Kent State went scoreless in games against Tennessee and Penn State and was outscored 127-0 combined in those games. They lost two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries in their loss to the Nittany Lions. Third-string QB Tommy Ulatowski will be the starter the rest of the way. He made a few impressive 40+ yard throws in the loss.
The Cardinals have historically done well against Kent State, and this year’s Golden Flashes might be the worst teams in the FBS right now. Ball State will probably end up in the middle-of-the-pack in the MAC this season. They should be able to cover on the road on Saturday afternoon.
QUICK HITS
Wisconsin at Rutgers (-2.5) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Purdue at Illinois (-21.5) – My pick is Purdue +21.5
Memphis at South Florida (+7) – My pick is Memphis -7
Cincinnati at UCF (-3) – My pick is Cincinnati +3
Mississippi State at Georgia (-34.5) – My pick is Mississippi State +34.5
Oregon State at Nevada (+3.5) – My pick is Oregon State -3.5
California at Pittsburgh (-3.5) – My pick is Pitt -3.5
Utah at Arizona State (+5) – My pick is Arizona State +5
Arizona at BYU (-4) – My pick is BYU -4
Kansas State at Colorado (+4) – My pick is Colorado +4
BONUS PICKS!
UAB at Army (-26) – My pick is Army -26
Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan (+2.5) – My pick is Eastern Michigan +2.5
San Jose State at Colorado State (+1.5) – My pick is San Jose State -1.5
Northern Illinois at Bowling Green (-3) – My pick is Northern Illinois +3
UTSA at Rice (+6) – My pick is Rice +6
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 185-150-5
2023: 155-144-10
2024: 81-66-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob