I went 7-6-1 against the spread in Week 5.

It was a back-and-forth weekend for me against the spread. I would yo-yo from a win to a loss. I wasn’t able to end the week in the black after a couple of parlays failed (thanks, Raiders).

The Commanders and Giants are two of the biggest surprises through the first five weeks. I would list the Broncos here, but I just can’t stomach watching Denver as their offense makes my teeth hurt.

Can the Bengals get an outright win (and cover) on the road against the Giants?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers -3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-2.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears -2.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 37-34 home win over the Colts, which failed to cover by a half-point. QB Trevor Lawrence had one of his better passing performances of the year, but his defense allowed just as many yards. The difference of the game came from the legs of RB Tank Bigsby, who may end up being RB1 in Jacksonville. Also, it was nice to see DE Travon Walker and LB Josh Hines-Allen get to the quarterback.

The Chicago Bears (3-2, 3-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 36-10 home win over the Panthers, which easily covered the -4 betting line. It was an impressive, decisive win, and rookie QB Caleb Williams should buy his defense a big meal after that one. Williams was smart with the ball and eclipsed 300 yards in the air. It was the sort of game Bears fans wanted to see from him.

This game is being played in London, so we know one of these teams will mentally be back home in the States. The Jaguars offense has played better the last two weeks, but I’m becoming a fan of the Bears defense. I think they’ll do enough to help their quarterback, so I’m taking the Bears to cover.

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders +6.5

The Washington Commanders (4-1, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-13 home win over the Browns, which easily covered the -3 point spread. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels looked like a human in the win, but the Browns offense is so bad they couldn’t take advantage. The Browns defense still has some elite players, so it was a test for the rookie. The Browns tried to take away the short passes from him, and it worked a lot.

The Baltimore Ravens (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 41-38 overtime win against the Bengals, which was a half-point over the spread. I knew one of these teams were going to blow a lead in the fourth quarter. Both of these teams had multiple late collapses this year. It looked like it was going to end up with a possible tie at one point, but kicker Justin Tucker sealed it with three minutes left in the extra period. I’ve realized that RB Derrick Henry is such a nice complement to QB Lamar Jackson. I was skeptical of Henry as I thought he was aging out of the game, but we will see if he can keep up this level of play.

The Ravens are coming out of a battle against the Bengals, so I think the Commanders can catch them on their heels. I’m sure Jayden Daniels has heard the Lamar Jackson comparisons for years, so he will come into this one extremely motivated. I think the Commanders are still underrated, so I’m taking the points.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (+7) – My pick is Houston Texans -7

The Houston Texans (4-1, 1-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Bills, which covered the spread by two points. They got out to a 20-3 lead early in the third quarter, but two quick touchdowns by the Bills made the game a tight one. Overall, the Texans defense forced Bills QB Josh Allen to only complete nine of 30 passing attempts, but they needed a field goal as time expired to win this game. It’s an odd thing to parse out, but the Texans need to figure out how things almost went really wrong in the second-half.

The New England Patriots (1-4, 1-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 15-10 home loss to the Dolphins, which was a few points shy of the spread. As expected, that game was bowling shoe ugly. The Dolphins offense is broken without a quarterback with a big arm, and the Patriots offense has a ‘don’t mess it up’ mentality. QB Jacoby Brissett appears to be benched in favor of rookie QB Drake Maye after this performance.

Can a the Patriots start an unproven rookie quarterback and give just seven points? I’m sure Maye will be more dynamic than Brissett, but he will make more mistakes. I’m taking the Texans to cover on the road.

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-9) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles -9

The Cleveland Browns (1-4, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 34-13 road loss to the Commanders, which was 24-points shy of the spread. It’s clear that the Browns offense needs big changes, specifically at quarterback. QB Deshaun Watson is getting paid a crazy amount of guaranteed money, so the Browns are in ‘the most Browns position’ ever. Also, it doesn’t help the fans see former quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Joe Flacco racking up big numbers elsewhere.

The Philadelphia Eagles (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game they suffered a 33-16 road loss to the Buccaneers. It wasn’t much of a contest as the Bucs were up 24-7 at halftime and the Eagles just couldn’t close the gap. They allowed way too many yards through the air. Heck, the Bucs also nearly averaged five yards per attempt on the ground too, which is rare air for them.

The Browns quarterback situation is a mess and I don’t see it getting any better. It’s clear QB Deshaun Watson has something going on above his ears and Cleveland should call on backup QB Jameis Winston. The Browns are the exact opponent the Eagles want after a bye week. I’m taking the Eagles to cover the spread at home.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+1) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts -1

The Indianapolis Colts (2-3, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 37-34 road loss to the Jaguars, which was a half-point over the spread. The Colts were coming into this game without young QB Anthony Richardson (oblique) and RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle), so many had doubts about the offense. I knew backup QB Joe Flacco would do well, but they desperately missed Taylor in the backfield. Indy just doesn’t have much depth at running back.

The Tennessee Titans (1-3, 1-3 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they won on the road against the Dolphins 31-12. Backup QB Mason Rudolph after QB Will Levis injured his shoulder. The offense was ‘fine’ without Levis, but Rudolph wasn’t any better than the struggling Levis. They relied on field goals and draining the clock on offense.

The Colts look like they could be short-handed again this Sunday. Richardson and Taylor are unknowns as of this writing, but the Colts are optimistic. Even if both of those guys are out, which currently seems unlikely, I’m taking the Colts in this one.

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals +5.5

The Arizona Cardinals (2-3, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 24-23 road win over the Niners, which easily covered the spread as the underdog. They played smart football in the second-half and won with a last-second field goal from kicker Chad Ryland. It was clear that the Niners were taking away rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., so they made some adjustments and got some other pass catching options in the mix. Also, QB Kyler Murray broke off a few big gains on the ground.

The Green Bay Packers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 24-19 road win over the Rams, which covered the spread by a couple points. QB Jordan Love was more comfortable moving around in the win. It was nice to see the Packers making some strides in the ground game with RB Josh Jacobs finding the end zone.

I think the Packers are the better team, but this point spread is a little too bloated for me. I think the Cardinals will be able to move the ball on Green Bay. I’m not sold that Love is 100% healthy, but he’s close. I’m taking the points in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+3.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 36-30 overtime road loss to the Falcons, It was a back-and-forth game and no team could pull away from the other. The Bucs running game had a few nice plays and QB Baker Mayfield was efficient with three touchdowns. Tampa Bay’s defense didn’t have an answer for Falcons QB Kirk Cousins, who threw for 509 yards in the win. I worry this could be a sign of things to come for the Bucs secondary.

The New Orleans Saints (2-3, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 26-13 road loss to the Chiefs, which was over a touchdown short of the spread. QB Derek Carr fell to an oblique injury in this game, which could keep him out multiple games going forward. Backup QB Jake Haener did not play great in relief late in the game. They will need to ride RB Alvin Kamara without Carr.

I don’t think I can put a single penny on a Haener-led Saints team. There’s a chance rookie QB Spencer Rattler could play as well, but I think they will play it safe with Haener. The Bucs pass defense is a mess, but I have to roll dice with the devil I know, so give me the Bucs to cover on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders (+3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 home loss to the Cowboys, which was short of the spread as the favorite. This was the definition of a ‘coin-flip game’ as the Cowboys needed a 4th and Goal touchdown to get the lead with 20 seconds left on the clock. QB Justin Fields was smart with the ball in their scoring drive that preceded that. It was a tough loss, but the Steelers defense allowed a few too many third-down conversions. You can’t allow the Cowboys offense to rack up 445 yards.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-3, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 34-18 road loss to the Broncos, which was two touchdowns short of the point spread. It was a rough outing for the Men in Black. They started the game on a 10-0 run, but everything after the 100-yard interception return touchdown by Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II was forgettable. They benched QB Gardner Minshew II for sophomore Aidan O’Connell, but had similar success in the loss.

The Raiders are a mess at the moment, but I think they needed to make a change at quarterback. I don’t think O’Connell is marginally better than Minshew, but a new voice in the huddle is desired. That being said, I think the Steelers defense will make the Raiders quarterback suffer a long day at work. I’m taking the Steelers to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they lost at home to the Chiefs 17-10. It was a rough outing as they were without a few of their defensive cogs and QB Justin Herbert’s right ankle sprain was aggravated in the loss. The offense just ground to a halt after he was even more limited in the second-half. The once-potent ground game was swallowed up by the Chiefs.

The Denver Broncos (3-2, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-18 home win over the Raiders, which easily won against the spread. I thought the Broncos were going to be God awful going into the season, but they are on a three-game outright winning streak, but it’s been a string of ugly games. I still think they are worse than their record would suggest, but their defense is closing their talent gap on offense.

Justin Herbert will not be 100% in this game, but their running game should bounce-back against the Broncos. I hate to take so many road favorites this week, but I hate this matchup for the Broncos, so give me the Chargers to cover.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (+3) – My pick is Detroit Lions -3

The Detroit Lions (3-1, 3-1 ATS) are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they won at home against the Seahawks 42-29. QB Jared Goff had a perfect 18 for 18 passing display in the win. The Lions pass defense was going to be pushed around a bit with the Seahawks physical receivers. Seattle’s offense played well and the Lions offense had to play perfect to come out with the double-digit win.

The Dallas Cowboys (3-2, 2-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-17 road win over the Steelers, which covered the spread as the underdog. They needed a late-minute, successful 4th-down attempt for a touchdown, but the Cowboys got the win. Dallas did have an impressive offensive output against a very good Steelers defense. They even ran the ball pretty well, which hasn’t happened this season, at all.

The Cowboys won a thriller last week and they are in line for a letdown. The Cowboys put up a lot of yards against the Steelers and they barely won. They are facing a better team this week and the Lions are coming off a bye week. I expect the Cowboys to come out flat and for the Lions to cover.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+6) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons (3-2, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 36-30 overtime home win against the Buccaneers, which covered the spread. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns in the win. They clearly decided to go straight at the Bucs glaring weakness, so they spammed the ball to wide receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney with great success.

The Carolina Panthers (1-4, 1-4 ATS) are coming off a 36-10 road loss to the Bears, which was a planet away from the +4 point spread. It looked like the QB Andy Dalton experiment was over in Carolina, after he was benched in the blowout loss. Well, the Panthers decided there is still life left in the ole Red Rider, so Dalton remains the starter.

The road favorites look so favorable this week, but will the Panthers ruin my bet? I think teams have figured out Dalton, and what he brings to the Panthers. It’s clear that he’s been figured out, so I’m taking the Falcons to cover.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (+3.5) – My pick is New York Giants +3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals (1-4, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 41-38 overtime home loss to the Ravens, which failed to cover the spread by a half-point. As I said above, I knew one of these teams would make a big comeback in the fourth, since its a trend in both teams’ games. The Bengals might be the best 1-4 team in NFL history, as a few balls fell in the wrong direction in the final minutes. Unfortunately, NFL games end after 60 minutes, not 58 minutes of play.

The New York Giants (2-3, 2-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 29-20 road win over the Seahawks, which easily won against the spread as the underdog. The Giants passing offense took a big hit with rookie WR Malik Nabers (concussion) had to miss the game, but it didn’t affect the output. WR Darius Slayon stepped into Naber’s role and had his best game in possibly years. Also, RB Tyrone Tracy had a career game by rushing for 129 yards.

The Bengals are a fantastic 1-4 team, but can they finish out a complete game? The Giants are underrated, so this should be a very good game. I think Nabers has a chance to be cleared, and the Giants will need him to keep this game tight. I’m taking the points in this one. 

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+2.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Buffalo Bills (3-2, 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Texans, which was a couple points shy of the spread. It was an overall ugly game, but the Texans still needed a 59-yard field goal to win the game. The Bills pass offense is still stymied by a lack of a true WR1. Letting former WR Stefon Diggs walk his way to Houston will be looked back at a bad mistake.

The New York Jets (2-3. 2-3 ATS) are coming off a 23-17 loss to the Vikings in London, which was a few points short of the spread. QB Aaron Rodgers had a rough outing by only completing 29 of 54 passing attempts along with three interceptions. It’s clear that the Jets needed someone else to blame for the loss, so they fired head coach Robert Saleh, which was an extremely dumb move. It’s a desperate move to appease a control-hungry, aging quarterback.

This could be an ugly game to watch. The Bills passing offense isn’t going to be fixed this season, and the Jets overall team issues are either. If a game is setup to be ugly, my gameplan is to take the points. When you add in Jets CB Sauce Gardner in the mix, the points look even better. I’m taking the points on Monday Night Football.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 40-34-4

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob/