I went 8-8 against the spread in Week 3.

I jumped out to a great Week 1, but I’ve been just slightly better than .500 over the last two weeks. I still managed to slightly profit last week thanks to a Commanders moneyline play.

We have two Monday night games again this week, so two more opportunities to ‘get even or get even worse’ from any Sunday losses.

Can Panthers QB Andy Dalton replicated last week’s success against his former team?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+5.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys -5.5

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-7.5) – My pick is New York Jets -7.5

The Denver Broncos (1-2, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a surprising 26-7 road win over the Buccaneers, which easily cover the spread as a near-touchdown underdog. They got out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. Their defense stepped up and stopped the Bucs passing offense, which looked great in their first two outings. Rookie QB Bo Nix didn’t personally turn the ball over, which is all you should ask of the rookie right now.

The New York Jets (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-3 home win over the Patriots, which covered the -6.5 points spread. Jets QB Aaron Rodgers played great in the win and got some help from his backfield. Their defense really put a cork in the Patriots offense.

The Broncos had a surprising win and Week 2, but I don’t see them continuing that play level against a tough Jets defense. The Broncos defense doesn’t have the depth to handle Jets QB Aaron Rodgers, so I think the Jets will cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (+4.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers +4.5

The Cincinnati Bengals (0-3, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 38-33 home loss to the Commanders, which was far from the betting line favorite. It was a back-and-forth battle with the rookie quarterback getting the best of Cincinnati. It was of no fault of Bengals QB Joe Burrow, as his defense let him down, his pass defense to be more specific.

The Carolina Panthers (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a surprising 36-22 road win over the Raiders, which easily covered the betting line as the underdog. QB Andy Dalton played an outstanding game in relief of sophomore QB Bryce Young, who was benched after last week’s poor outing. RB Chuba Hubbard had one of his best games of his career and WR Diontae Johnson showed what he can do with a capable quarterback.

This will be an interesting game, as I view this as a turning point game for both teams. The Bengals offense has studs in the passing game, but I feel their defense is in rough shape. The Panthers are a better team with Dalton under center, but how much better? I’m unsure about an outright Panthers win, but I think it will be close, so give me the points.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 15-12 road win over the Saints, which covered the spread as the betting line underdog. It was an ugly battle through the first three quarterbacks, but the offensive volume was turned up in the fourth. RB Saquon Barkley was able to get into the end zone in the final minute to gain the lead for the final time. The game plan appeared to be inch their way down the field with TE Dallas Goedert and Barkley.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 26-7 home loss to the Broncos, which was a disappointing outcome as the betting line favorite. They abandoned the running game early in the game and the Bucs just couldn’t make up the big deficit as a one-dimensional offense. On defense, they failed to stop the Broncos on too many third-downs.

The Bucs are a much better team than the one that showed up against the Broncos. It doesn’t happen often in the NFL, but I think they fell victims to the ‘trap game.’ I think this game will still be a tight game, but I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams +3

The Los Angeles Rams (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 home win over the short-handed Niners, which easily covered the point spread as the betting line underdog. I probably shouldn’t single out the Niners being short-handed, as the Rams were missing some studs on offense as well. RB Kyren Williams played a fantastic game, and they will need big outings from him to help out missing their two best wide receivers going forward.

The Chicago Bears (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-16 road loss to the Colts, which missing the spread by a few points. Rookie QB Caleb Williams had his most-prolific game as a pro, but his three turnovers played huge in the outcome. It allowed the Colts to get a short field, and having their own offensive struggles, made it much easier to put up points. Also, I worry about their running game against above-average teams. Teams are clearly baiting Williams to throw by crowding the box.

The Rams will need to find their identity without injured wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. I think last week’s game helped them realize that they may need to lean on RB Kyren Williams. The Bears offense is far from mistake-proof, so I’m expecting the Rams to turn a few turnovers into points. I’m taking the points in this game.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints +1.5

The New Orleans Saints (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 15-12 home loss to the Eagles, which lost against the spread as the betting line favorite. QB Derek Carr had his worst game of the season, and RB Alvin Kamara couldn’t get into the second-level on the ground or in the passing game. On defense, the Saints didn’t have an answer for Eagles RB Saquon Barkley in the second-half of the game.

The Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 22-17 home loss to the Chiefs, which was a two points shy of the point spread. QB Kirk Cousins was coming off a fantastic outing in Week 2, and had a tall task keeping up with the Chiefs. He did just fine, but had zero help from his backfield. Running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 63 yards on 23 carries.

The Saints had a hiccup against the Eagles, but is it a signs of things to come or just a short deviation? I’m expecting this game to be close, but I just think the world of RB Alvin Kamara right now (even if he’s missing practice to rest some nagging injuries). I know he didn’t play great last week, but I’m not sold on the Falcons defense. I’m taking the points in this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-7) – My pick is Houston Texans -7

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 47-10 road loss to the Bills, which was 30+ point shy of the point spread. The Jaguars offense looks to be playing in slow-motion, which is frustrating knowing how much talent QB Trevor Lawrence shown in college. The Jaguars defense, which was very good last year, was just there for decoration against Buffalo.

The Houston Texans (2-1, 0-2-1 ATS) are coming off a 34-7 road loss to the Vikings, which was a loss against the spread as the favorite. The Texans didn’t put up any points until midway through the third quarter. It was almost impossible to run the ball as they faced a big deficit early in the game. QB C.J. Stroud didn’t have a good game and tried to hit WR Nico Collins a few too many times (four completions on ten targets).

I’m confident that the Jaguars will play better this week, because the bar is very low right now. They need to compete against the Texans or heads may roll in Jacksonville. How will QB Trevor Lawrence handle this kind of pressure? He doesn’t have the playmakers around him to make a huge improvement, so I think the Texans could do very well. I’m taking Houston to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings +2.5

The Minnesota Vikings (3-0, 3-0 ATS) are coming off a 34-7 home win over the Texans, which easily covered the spread as the betting line underdog. It’s hard to explain how down I was in QB Sam Darnold coming into this season. It definitely helps with you had talented receivers and veteran RB Aaron Jones on your side. I don’t want to minimize Darnold’s contribution, as they wouldn’t be undefeated with almost any other backup quarterback.

The Green Bay Packers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 30-14 road win over the Titans, which was a win against the spread as the underdog. Backup QB Malik Willis got revenge against his former team for shipping him out of town for a can of beans. He has a future in this league, but he needs reps to reach his potential. I wouldn’t trust him in a pass-first offense, but his backfield works with his skill-set.

I’ve backed off on putting a single penny on Sam Darnold, just because I haven’t been impressed by him since his sophomore year at USC…but I’ve changed my mind. He has grown as a decision-maker. He realizes that he can use his team’s strengths, and not  have to force throws. As much as I like the Packers secondary, I don’t like them as much as last year. I’m taking the points in this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0, 3- ATS) are coming off a 20-10 home win against the Chargers, which beat the spread by more than a touchdown. The Steelers defense stymied the Chargers prolific running game. QB Justin Fields had his best game as a member of the team and took over in the second-half to stretch out the lead.

The Indianapolis Colts (1-2, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 21-16 home win over the Bears, which covered the spread by a few points. The Colts defense bent, but did not break, against rookie QB Caleb Williams. He put up some big numbers, but the defense forced three turnovers. Sophomore QB Anthony Richardson still has a long way to go, but RB Jonathan Taylor put the team on his back for the win.

The Colts offense may not be ready for the Steelers defense. I worry Richardson will struggle, as they will no-doubt stack the box and force him to throw. I don’t trust him to make smart decisions at this point in his development. I’m taking the Steelers to cover on the road.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers +10

The New England Patriots (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-3 home loss to the Jets, which was over two touchdowns short of the spread. The Patriots offense struggled right out of the gate. QB Jacoby Brissett is normally efficient with the ball, but he just couldn’t move the ball. They even tried rookie QB Drake Maye for awhile, who played well in relief. The Patriots defense had trouble stopping the passing game.

The San Francisco 49ers (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 27-24 road loss to the Rams. Both teams were missing many stars, but the Rams were able to wear down the Niners defense on the ground. QB Brock Purdy played well and WR Jauan Jennings made a name for himself in the loss. A bad fourth quarter cost them the game.

The Patriots will only compete in this game if they can keep QB Jacoby Brissett off his back, and I don’t see that happening. Brissett didn’t do well against the Jets, and the Niners have a better pass rush. I think it’s that easy, so I’m taking the 49ers to cover at home.

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals -3.5

The Washington Commanders (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 38-33 road win over the Bengals, which easily cover the spread as the betting line underdog. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels continues to be the most impressive rookie quarterback in his class. He was near-perfect through the air and added a touchdown on the ground. It was a back-and-forth battle and the last team with the ball (and some time) was going to win the game.

The Arizona Cardinals (1-2, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-13 road loss against the Lions, which was four points shy of the point spread. The Lions were able to stop QB Kyler Murray from connecting with rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., as he only completed five of eleven targets to the young wideout. Harrison still found the end zone early, but the Lions defensive adjustments won Detroit the game.

The Commanders have allowed a few too many big plays through the air this season. I believe that’s how the Cardinals can win, and cover, at home. The Lions had the personnel to take away Harrison Jr., but the Commanders aren’t that deep in the secondary. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover at home.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+8.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers +8.5

The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 22-17 road win over the Falcons, which was two points over the spread. I’m sure many in the ‘public’ thought the three-point spread was going to be an easy cover, but Falcons QB Kirk Cousins has the offense moving in the right direction. The Chiefs needed a big third quarter to push the team to a cover. The Chiefs are in a youth explosion on offense, but they need to feed TE Travis Kelce more going forward.

The Los Angeles Chargers (2-1, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a 20-10 road loss to the Steelers, which fell just over a touchdown short of the point spread. It was clear that QB Justin Herbert (ankle) wasn’t 100% healthy, and teams are realizing that the Chargers offense is now being ran through their backfield. RB J.K. Dobbins had his worse game on his new team. If Herbert can’t go, backup QB Taylor Heinicke will be the starter.

As much as like the Chiefs this season, they have had the tendency to ‘play down’ to their opponents over the last few years. It’s unknown if Herbert will be able to play, but I’m not sure if 50% Herbert is an improvement over a healthy Heinicke. I still think the Chargers should be able to run the ball. I’m taking the points in this game.

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-1) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders -1

The Cleveland Browns (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 21-15 home loss to the Giants, which fell way short of the betting line as the favorite. QB Deshaun Watson didn’t throw any picks in the loss, but there were too many lost downs to incompletions. You need an offense that can produce big plays to combat that, and that’s not happening in Cleveland.

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off a 36-22 home loss to the Panthers, which fell incredibly short as the betting line favorite. Panthers backup QB Andy Dalton made fools of the Raiders pass defense. It looks as if the defense was preparing for QB Bryce Young and had no idea Dalton was even playing. The Raiders now have a quarterback controversy as sophomore QB Aidan O’Connell had some success filling in for QB Gardner Minshew late in the game.

The Raiders needed a kick in the ass, and head coach Antonio Pierce did just that by opening the door for a quarterback change. He got them playing well last year when he took over, so he clearly has their ear. Also, I hate to bring this up, but there are way too many massage areas in Vegas, so I don’t expect Watson to be 100% focused, so I’m taking the Raiders to cover.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills +2.5

The Buffalo Bills (3-0, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 47-10 home win over the Jaguars, which easily cover the point spread. The game was essentially over by the middle of the second quarter. QB Josh Allen had his best game of the year and Buffalo’s new-look secondary played better than expected. The Jaguars are struggling on offense right now, so it was the right opponent for the Bills secondary to ball out.

The Baltimore Ravens (1-2, 1-2 ATS) are coming off 28-25 road win over the Cowboys, which was a couple points over the point spread. RB Derrick Henry had a great first-half and helped bury the Cowboys under, what turned out to be, an insurmountable lead. QB Lamar Jackson was solid and did exactly what he needed to do, be smart with the ball and run off some clock.

The Bills are coming off back-to-back blowout wins, but what can you glean from those wins? The big win over the Dolphins came after QB Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion and last week’s blowout of the Jaguars came at the expense of a broken offense. I think the Bills are the real deal, but it does leave you with some questions. I don’t expect Ravens RB Derrick Henry to replicate last week’s dominant outing. I think it will be close, so I’m taking the points.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-1) – My pick is Tennessee Titans +1

The Tennessee Titans (0-3, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a 30-14 home loss to the Packers, which fell short of the betting line as the favorite. They ran into a revenge scenario as they faced Packers QB Malik Willis who was discarded this offseason. Willis had a fantastic game and Titans QB WIll Levis turned the ball over too much. Also, they added very little on the ground, which has been a trend so far this year.

The Miami Dolphins (1-2, 0-3 ATS) are coming off a 24-3 road loss to the Seahawks, which fell far short of the point spread. The Dolphins are going to be in trouble without QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), but they also lost backup QB Skylar Thompson (rib) for most of this loss. It appears that he is day-to-day for this week’s game.

 This could be an ugly game to watch. It’s still unknown which quarterback will start for Miami, but I’m not expecting a game-changing performance from either of those guys. I’ve made a decent amount of money just picking the points when it’s going to be a gross game to watch, which is what I’m doing here.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions -3.5

The Seattle Seahawks (3-0, 1-1-1 ATS) are coming off a 24-3 home win over the Dodgers, which easily covered the spread. They got out to an early lead and their gameplan got away from them a bit. They made some mistakes in the second-half, but the Dolphins offense was broken by that point, so Miami couldn’t take advantage of that. RB Zach Charbonnet had a very good game as the lead back.

The Detroit Lions (2-1, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 20-13 road win over the Cardinals, which covered the spread by a few points. The Lions had an excellent adjustment at halftime and they took rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. out of the game by double-teaming him. The Cardinals couldn’t come back from from the deficit without being able to effectively use Harrison.

I usually sweat my Monday Night Football picks due to how competitive the lines can be, but this one feels pretty solid in Detroit’s favor. I wasn’t sold on Seattle going into the season, and even though they are undefeated, I’m still not sold on them. They’ve had an easy schedule and haven’t been dominant in most of them. I’m looking for the Lions to rebound and cover at home.

These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 26-19-3

Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob