I went 10-4-2 against the spread in Week 1.

We had a solid start to the season, but you can’t go all-in on a team that either impressed in Week 1 or completely fell on their face. It’s important to lean on your preseason rankings until an injury or something too glaring to ignore happens.

Which teams impressed you the most after Kickoff Weekend?

Can Bears QB Caleb Williams start his career 2-0?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-7.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a 37-20 home win over Washington, and also won against the spread. QB Baker Mayfield had a fantastic game completing 24 of 30 passes with four touchdowns. He didn’t get much help from RB Rachaad White, but RB Bucky Irving looks like a future starter. On defense, they did fine against rookie QB Jayden Daniels , but the Commanders aren’t expected to be a competitive offense.

The Lions are coming off a 26-20 overtime home win over the Rams, and was able to cover the spread by a half-point. The offense didn’t crank out crooked numbers, but they barely did enough to get the win. RB David Montgomery and WR Jameson Williams were the MVPs on offense. On defense, they didn’t have an answer for Rams WR Cooper Kupp, but many teams are in the same boat. We will see how Detroit’s pass defense holds up going forward.

The Lions are a very good team, but the hype is distorting their betting lines. They are clearly a ‘public team’ right now, so it will be difficult to get any value in their betting lines. The Bucs passing offense will be the key in this game. The Lions may squeak out a win, but I’m taking the points.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (+3.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The New York Jets are coming off a 32-19 road loss to the Niners on Monday Night Football. The game was largely out of reach by late in the third quarter. They gave QB Aaron Rodgers the hook and backup QB Tyrod Taylor ran the offense pretty darn well in garbage time. RB Breece Hall nearly amassed 100 total yards, but his averages were no pretty (and he lost a fumble). The Jets have a very good defense, but we need to see them against a team other than the Niners.

The Tennessee Titans are coming off a 24-17 road loss to Chicago, and lost against the spread. They played well in the first-half, but they hit a wall after halftime. QB Will Levis put the nail in the coffin when he threw an interception that was ran back for what became the game-winning score. I like the addition of RB Tony Pollard, but want to see him used more in the pass game. On defense, the Titans did well against the run and Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams was largely ineffective.

Both teams come into this with 0-1 records. but the Jets are easily the better team. The Niners were able to make the Jets defense look below average, but they are far from that. Titans QB Levis had issues with the Bears last week, so he will struggle again against the Jets, so I’m taking New York to cover on the road.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (+3.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a 26-20 home win over Denver, and failed to cover the spread by a half-point. Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III cracked 100-yard mark and QB Geno Smith largely made smart decisions. There were a few huge mistakes the offense made when backed into their own endzone, which led to two safeties. Those are the sort of errors good teams don’t make. On defense, they forced rookie QB Bo Nix into many mistakes.

The New England Patriots are coming off a 16-10 road win over Cincinnati, and easily won against the spread, as they were 7.5-point underdogs. Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett continues to be great against the spread. He comes in underrated, his stats don’t jump off the page, yet his teams play better than expected. RB Rhamondre Stevenson made the most of his ‘lead back’ role that mostly eluded him under the last regime. On defense, they made the plays to keep the team in the game. This offense may not score more than 20 points in most games, so the defense needs to play like this to win games.

Defense will be the key in this game. If the Patriots can limit their mistakes on offense, their defense will give them good field position. The Seahawks made some bonehead mistakes that turn into safeties. I’m not sold on Seattle this year, so I’m taking the points.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 33-17 home loss to Dallas, and was big losers against the spread as they were 2.5-point favorites. Browns QB Deshaun Watson had a bad day as he only passed for 169 yards on 45 attempts. That sort of ineffectiveness will lead to too many short drives. I haven’t been impressed with Watson since he arrived in Cleveland. On defense, the Browns have some studs, but they can only do so much when you’re constantly in poor field position.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a 20-17 road loss to Miami, and they were able to cover the spread by a half-point. QB Trevor Lawrence consistently underwhelms with his stat line, and he was outplayed in the second half. The Jaguars had a 17-7 lead at halftime and didn’t score a single point the rest of the game. Jacksonville needed to open their checkbook for a top wide receiver for Lawrence. On defense, They were pressuring the quarterback early in the game, but Miami’s offense will wear you down.

The Browns offensive struggles were alarming in Week 1, but how much of that was the Cowboys defense? I have to ask myself that question because it’s so early in the year. I’m open to giving the Browns the benefit of the doubt. I wasn’t high on the Jaguars going into this season, and don’t know if they are much better than the Browns. In cases like these, I have to take the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a 32-19 home win over the Jets on Monday Night Football, and easily cover the -3.5 point spread. Many were worried when RB Christian McCaffrey was scratched from the lineup, but backup RB Jordan Mason put on a show against a pretty darn good Jets defense. The game was largely out of hand by late in the third quarter. On defense, they put the screws on Jets QB Aaron Rodgers, and the Jets admitted defeat by yanking him in the fourth quarter.

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a 28-6 road win over the Giants, and easily covered the -1 point spread. Vikings QB Sam Darnold was a big question mark coming into the game. He was given the keys to become the everyday starter for a franchise early in his career, and well, he’s in Minnesota now. He learned that having wide receivers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison makes playing quarterback easier. Also, new RB Aaron Jones continued his historically consistent output. On defense, they had five sacks and made Giants QB Daniel Jones throw two picks.

The Niners know Vikings QB Sam Darnold very well, as he was the backup behind Niners QB Brock Purdy last season. He did play well last week, but I’m not sold on Darnold. The Niners are loaded this year and he will have trouble putting up points. I’m taking the Niners to cover on the road.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (+3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a 29-27 home loss to Houston, and cover the point spread by a single point. Sophomore QB Anthony Richardson is still developing his passing skills. His raw ability shot him up the draft board and the Colts know it may take a few healthy seasons for him to reach his potential in that area. He does have a playmaking ability that is fun to watch. RB Jonathan Taylor may have trouble this season as teams will crowd the box in hopes to force Richardson to throw the ball. On defense, the Colts got some pressure on Texans QB C.J. Stroud, but their pass defense is going to be weak with low-rated cornerbacks.

The Green Bay Packers are coming off a 34-29 home loss to Philadelphia, and lost against the spread. The big news to come out of this game was a late injury to QB Jordan Love. He injured his MCL in Brazil and will miss a month or so. QB Malik Willis came into the game in the finals seconds, but made no impact. New RB Josh Jacobs played well in his debut with the team and Love distributed the ball well among his young receivers. On defense, they forced Eagles QB Jalen Hurts into two interceptions and a forced fumble.

This game will come down to how well Packers QB Malik Willis performs. He never impressed me on the Titans, so it’s a long shot that will happen on Sunday. I realize Richardson may run into trouble with the Packers secondary, but I think he will make enough plays to cover on the road.

Los Angles Chargers at Carolina Panthers (+6) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off a 22-10 home win over Las Vegas, and easily covered the -3 point spread. The offense looked quite different than in year’s past. New head coach Jim Harbaugh brought offensive coordinator Greg Roman with him, and there’s a strong focus on running the ball. QB Justin Herbert won’t be the end all, be all on offense. Their new backfield of RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards will be a nice duo. Dobbins balled out in his first game and looks like a franchise running back. On defense, defensive studs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack got to the quarterback and helped seal the win.

The Carolina Panthers are coming off a rough 47-10 road loss to the Saints, and they didn’t come close to the +3.5 point spread. The game was out of hand by the end of the first quarter. Sophomore QB Bryce Young played like he isn’t ready for the NFL. The offensive line was horrible, and on defense, it was a disaster.

I like what I saw from the Chargers in Week 1. Their offense moved the ball well, and they have Herbert’s passing ability to lean on when it’s needed. The Panthers might be the worst team in the NFL, so I’m taking the Chargers to cover on the road.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-1.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders

The New York Giants are coming off a 28-6 home loss to Minnesota, and failed to cover against the spread. The Giants expected better overall play from QB Daniel Jones, but that didn’t happen. He only completed 22 of 42 passes and threw two picks in the loss. The running game was in rough shape. They didn’t adequately replace former RB Saquon Barkley. On defense, they underperformed and had no answer for the Vikings stud receivers.

The Washington Commanders are coming off a 37-20 road loss to Tampa Bay, and easily failed to cover the +4 point spread. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels had the best overall numbers of any rookie quarterback last week, but his defense had trouble stopping the pass. I would have liked to have seen Daniels air it out a little more, as most of his passes are within five yards. 

I worry about the Giants ability to run the ball. I fear this will progress into QB Daniel Jones taking more chances on the ground. I just didn’t like what I saw last week, at all. I’m taking the Washington to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off a 22-10 road loss to the Chargers, and failed to cover the +3 point spread. They named QB Gardner Minshew as the starting quarterback, and in Week 1, he played like a starting NFL quarterback. The Raiders needed more than that to compete with the Chargers on Sunday. He didn’t get much help from his backfield and his defense struggled to get off the field.

The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a 27-20 road loss to Chiefs, and failed to cover the +2.5 point spread. QB Lamar Jackson was nearly a one-man offensive machine, but that would be short-changing guys like TE Isaiah Likely. Baltimore was a toenail away from sending the game into overtime, so they should be proud of their effort on Thursday Night Football.

The Ravens are coming into this game with a chip on their shoulders. They feel they got robbed by the late out-of-bounds call. They will come into this game motivated and I have to take the Ravens to cover at home.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints are coming off a 47-10 home win over Carolina, and easily covered the -3.5 point spread on Sunday. QB Derek Carr was near-perfect and RB Alvin Kamara is playing like he did at his peak. Their offense just had a banner day. On defense, it was just as good. They got all sort of pressure on Carolina QB Bryce Young and their secondary was equally as good. It’s hard to nitpick the Saints in the blowout win.

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a 33-17 road win over Cleveland. Dallas just played a solid offensive gameplan and didn’t make any dumb mistakes. They allowed the Browns to beat themselves. Dallas won the field position battle and it seemed like they were always getting the ball on-or-near the good side of the 50-yard-line.

It’s really hard to cover Cowboy games in back-to-back weeks. I think the Cowboys will most likely win this game outright, but the Saints defense is underrated. This betting line is just a bit bloated, so I’m taking the points.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off a 26-20 overtime road loss to Detroit, and failed to cover the point spread by a half-point. Rams QB Matthew Stafford had a fantastic cumulative stats, and he did it by spamming the ball to WR Cooper Kupp. He saw his young WR Puka Nacua suffer an injury that will keep him out for a minimum of four games. On defense, they did pretty darn well considering they no longer have D-Line God Aaron Donald causing havoc. Their front-seven surprised me, in a good way.

The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a 34-28 road loss to Buffalo, and they covered the spread by a single point. The Cardinals had a 17-3 lead just before halftime, so it’s hard to feel positive about a loss, but I saw a lot of good things. QB Kyler Murray was smart with the ball and continued to be a game-changing playmaker. My one big critique is that he didn’t get the ball to rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. more. The young wideout only had one catch for four yards on just three targets. On defense, their stars are aging and they ran out of gas on Sunday.

As much as I am impressed by the Cardinals close effort in their loss to the Bills, I still can’t bet on them this week. The Rams are the better overall team, and the Cardinals secondary will have trouble with WR Cooper Kupp. I’m taking the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a 18-10 road win over Atlanta, and covered the +4 point spread. The Steelers had drama this preseason about which quarterback would win the starting job. Veteran QB Russell Wilson was named the starter, but a nagging injury forced him out of the opener. QB Justin Fields jumped into the starting role and was fine. They had to rely on field goals, but it’s a positive to see that many drive end with points. At the end of the day, Pittsburgh’s defense will carry the most water on this team.

The Denver Broncos are coming off a 26-20 road loss to Seattle, and was able to win against the spread by a half-point. Rookie QB Bo Nix tried to do too much in his debut. He wasn’t getting any help from his backfield, so he forced a few too many throws. On defense, they have some fantastic star players, but the depth just isn’t there.

The Steelers defense is the sole reason why I think they will smoke the Broncos. If Nix can’t move the ball well against the Seahawks, he will struggle even more against LB T.J. freaking Watt. I’m taking Pittsburgh to cover on the road.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a 16-10 home loss to New England, and lost against the spread. I’m not sure why, but QB Joe Burrow-led Bengals teams are slow starters. Fumble-itis was a killer on Sunday. The Patriots have a very good defense, so the Bengals made too many mistakes. On defense, they had trouble against the run and was only on offense for 25 minutes.

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a 27-20 home win over Baltimore, and they won against the spread. QB Patrick Mahomes wanted more speedy weapons, so they drafted the speediest weapon of all-time in WR Xavier Worthy. If they can find more ways to get the ball in his hands, this Chiefs team will be even more dominant. On defense, they had a tall task, did barely enough to win, and that’s all that matters.

This feels like a sucker bet, but I’m going to fall for it. The Bengals were playing in quicksand last week. If last week’s Bengals show up this week, the Chiefs will lap the orange house cats, so I’m taking the Chiefs to cover at home.

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Chicago Bears are coming off a 24-17 home win over the Titans, and won against the spread. Rookie QB Caleb Williams wasn’t a superstar in his debut, but he did go down as a winner on the day. The Bears were down 17-0 in the first-half, but their defense and special teams carried the team to a win. I’m not sure if this is a winning formula, but it worked this time.

The Houston Texans are coming off a 29-27 road win over Indianapolis, but failed to cover the spread by a half-point. Young QB C.J. Stroud had a great game and he was helped by a new face, veteran RB Joe Mixon. Also, the addition of WR Stefon Diggs may go down as their best offseason move.

I’m not sure what I can glean from the Bears win over the Titans. I don’t see Tennessee as a good team, so seeing them go down so much early, just completely turns me off. I think the Texans are the far better team, so I’m taking them to cover at home.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 18-10 home loss to Pittsburgh, and lost against the spread. New QB Kirk Cousins had a rough day, but I think he should improve wants he plays with these guys more. The Steelers have a tough defense, so they knew it was going to be a physical game. On defense, the addition is Matthew Judon is paying off, but the defense is still lacking depth.

The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a 34-29 home win over the Packers, and cover the spread. The game was played in a soccer stadium in Brazil, and the field took a beating. Players were having trouble finding their footing in the second-half. Eagles new QB Saquon Barkley added three total touchdowns in the win. 

The Eagles running game will be the key in this game. I’m expecting a big game from Eagles QB Saquon Barkley on Monday night. I think the Falcons will be a decent team by mid-October, but they’re not there yet. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 132-116-6
2024: 10-4-2

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob