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I went 148-133-8 against the spread last season. It wasn’t a banner year and I just hovered around .500 all season long. I hope to start the year off with a big week.

I decided to kick off the season a little different this season. I decided to get some help fleshing out the opening week’s column. I asked Google’s Generative AI to add some season preview insight about every team. Their input is the first two paragraphs of every game breakdown. Artificial Intelligence still has a long way to go for accuracy, so I had to correct some items…as it thought Mike McCarthy was the Patriots head coach.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-5) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are favored to win the NFC North in 2023. They have playoff aspirations and I like the additions of RB David Montgomery and rookie TE Sam LaPorta. The Lions have a 9.5 win total and are favored to win the division. Their offense is expected to be one of the top units in the league. Detroit’s young rookie class is expected to contribute right away.

It appears that Chiefs TE Travis Kelce will be a game-time decision after he suffered a bone bruise on his knee in practice. If he’s not 100%, it really takes away a big mismatch the Chiefs would have on offense. Kansas City may sneak out a win outright, but I’m going to take the points in the opener.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers have high expectations for the 2023 season. They have a new coaching staff, a solid defense, and stability at quarterback. However, the Panthers’ offense is expected to be dismal. The Panthers’ average over/under is 41 points. The Panthers traded with Chicago to secure Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the number one pick in the 2023 draft. Young is expected to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Panthers’ defense is led by Derrick Brown and Shy Tuttle. However, the Panthers only have five defensive linemen on the roster, including two on the practice squad. The Panthers lack a nose tackle to clog up the middle.

The Atlanta Falcons are the second favorite to win the NFC South in 2023, one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. They have a favorable schedule and a lot of exciting talent added in the offseason. Some say they could improve by two wins from last year. The Falcons have a new quarterback, Desmond Ridder, who took over the starting role last year. They also have a good offensive line and a few dynamic pass-catchers. The Falcons drafted Texas RB Bijan Robinson and may need their backfield to carry the team at times.

The Falcons have a lot of impressive talent on offense, but I’m not sold on QB Desmond Ridder. I really liked him in college, but his play was too sluggish a year ago. I think the Panthers are a tad underrated this year and I think rookie QB Bryce Young has enough weapons around him to pull off some upsets this year. I’m taking the points in this contest.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Houston Texans are starting the 2023 season this weekend. The Texans have a new head coach, DeMeco Ryans, and a new quarterback, C.J. Stroud. They also have a new tight end, Dalton Schultz, who signed a one-year contract. They have had a tumultuous offseason, with new coaches and many new players. They made a splash in the draft and offseason, but their win total is set at 6.5. The Texans have spent two seasons in the NFL’s abyss after the fallout of the Deshaun Watson situation.

The Baltimore Ravens have high expectations for the 2023 season and are expected to compete for the playoffs in the AFC North. The Ravens have the best, healthiest, and most complete roster they’ve had in a decade. They also have a new offensive system and an easy non-division schedule. The Ravens’ over/under for wins is set at 10.5, which is only one win off the line of the top teams in the NFL. The Ravens’ quarterback, Lamar Jackson, has a new contract, offense, and receivers. The Ravens also added receiver Odell Beckham Jr..

The Texans should improve on their win total this year, but the Ravens secondary could squash rookie QB C.J. Stroud in his first pro game. I don’t see the Texans scoring too many points, so the Ravens may not need to put up too many points to cover this spread. I’m taking Baltimore to cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+2) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to win 11.5 games in 2023, compared to the 12 games they won last season. However, they have a great chance of making the playoffs. The Bengals have the second highest odds to make the playoffs among all AFC teams, behind only the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bengals are the AFC North favorites. Some think they might be the best team in the NFL. Joe Burrow is the betting favorite to win NFL MVP. The Bengals have a tremendous group of wide receivers. The Bengals’ Super Bowl odds are +1100. They have the fifth-best odds to win Super Bowl LVIII.

The Cleveland Browns are a playoff contender in 2023 and could potentially win the division. They have +115 odds to make the playoffs and +3500 odds to win the Super Bowl. The Browns’ offensive line is better than average and may be a top 5 unit. The Browns’ offense is loaded with talent on the line and at the skill positions. The Browns’ quarterback, Deshaun Watson, is a question mark, but it’s unlikely his play will be as rusty and ineffective as it was at the end of last year.

The Browns have owned their recent head-to-head meetings by winning outright eight of their last ten. These teams have a history of playing each other close, even if one team is significantly better overall. I’m not bullish on the Browns offense and we will likely see the same subpar play from QB Deshaun Watson again. I’m taking the Bengals to cover on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts  (+3.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to be at the top of the AFC South again in 2023. The Jaguars’ odds of making the playoffs are -190, and their odds of missing the playoffs are +155. The Jaguars’ season win total is over 9.5 wins, with some books predicting 10 victories. The Jaguars’ odds to win Super Bowl 58 are +3000, or 3.2% in implied probability. They have the seventh-best odds to win the AFC at +1200. The Jaguars’ offense is expected to have big seasons, especially from Calvin Ridley. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is expected to be even better in his third season. The Jaguars’ defense will rely on their young pass-rushing duo to take a major leap this season. The Jaguars’ front-seven is an area they will look to improve upon.

The Indianapolis Colts are expected to improve on their 4-12-1 record from last season. They have a win total of 6.5, but a 6-11 or 7-10 record won’t be enough to make the playoffs. The Colts are among a handful of NFL teams that are favored in two or fewer games. They are an underdog of +3.5 or higher in six games. The Colts have a new head coach and quarterback. The only people retained are GM Chris Ballard and DC Gus Bradley. This season is about developing Anthony Richardson and building a team to compete in the mid-2020s. The Colts have odds of +550 to win the AFC South. If the Jacksonville Jaguars take a step back, the Colts could be next in line to win the division. Richardson’s odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year are +750.

Full disclosure, I’m a Colts fan, but I tend to be on the pessimistic side of the team. It appears that QB Anthony Richardson is a hard worker and is the first one in practice and the last one to leave, but he was already viewed as a raw prospect in the draft. I’m not sold on him starting Week 1, and the fact that he won’t have RB Jonathan Taylor for the first few games, makes me even more negative about the decision. I think the Jaguars will take a big leap this season and should cover in their opener.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Buccaneers won the NFC South with an 8-9 record last year. However, they are the biggest longshots to win it again in 2023. Tom Brady retired, and the rest of the NFC South didn’t get much better. The Buccaneers’ defense is mostly intact, but they added first-round pick Calijah Kancey and free agent safety Ryan Neal. The Buccaneers will need to be even better on defense than they were last year. They will likely score fewer points than in 2022, so they will have to hold off teams that have become much better. Starting QB Baker Mayfield may have a short leash to start the year.

The 2023 Minnesota Vikings are expected to be a playoff-contending team. They have +115 odds to qualify for the postseason. The Vikings have a 13-4 record from last season, when they were knocked out in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Vikings’ offense is largely unchanged from last year. However, the defense has been completely retooled under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Based on Flores’ track record, the defense is expected to be more aggressive, unpredictable, and send more blitzes.

The Bucs are early in their rebuilding phase and I fear that could have trouble covering the Vikings young receivers. I love the addition of rookie WR Jordan Addison and he’s just one more reason why he’s becoming near-impossible to double WR Justin Jefferson. I’m taking the Vikings to cover at home.

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans are a team in transition for the 2023 season. They are trying to rebuild while remaining in playoff contention. The Titans’ season win total is 7.5 with a lean to the over. Some experts predict the Titans will win between 7 and 10 games. The Titans had a great rush defense in 2022. Their defensive line could be even better in 2023. However, they have some glaring holes on the roster. It seems likely that Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are moving on after this season.

The New Orleans Saints are looking to regain their relevance in the NFC in 2023. The team’s over/under is set at 9.5 wins, compared to the seven games they won last season. The Saints are currently 15th in the league in terms of odds to win the Super Bowl. New starting quarterback QB Derek Carr hopes to resurrect his career on a new team.

Saints QB Derek Carr has a nice cast of receivers and I think he has a chance at Comeback Player of the Year. Also, WR Michael Thomas hasn’t been healthy in two seasons and I’m curious to see him in a real game. The fact that the Saints won’t have RB Alvin Kamara could hurt, but the Saints should be able to move the ball without him. I’m taking the Saints to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are expected to be a Super Bowl contender in 2023. They have a win total of between 10.5 and 11, and are favored in 15 of 17 games. The 49ers are +1000 to win the Super Bowl, +400 to win the NFC, and -165 to win the NFC West. The 49ers have a strong defense and a talented offensive playmaker in Christian McCaffrey. However, there is some uncertainty at the quarterback position. Brock Purdy is coming back from injury, and his sophomore season is one of the most anticipated in NFL history. If the team stays healthy in the preseason, they could be a Super Bowl team. The 49ers’ schedule includes a couple of difficult stretches that could lead to a loss or two. However, an 11-win season should be enough to win the NFC West.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to be competitive in 2023. The key to a deep playoff run or division title is the development of quarterback Kenny Pickett. The Steelers’ offensive line was better than expected last year, but it was still not a strength of the team. First-round pick Broderick Jones has a good chance to start at left tackle this year. The defense also added corner Joey Porter Jr.. The Steelers’ biggest goal this season is to get to the playoffs and win a playoff game. Since reaching the Super Bowl in 2010, the Steelers have won three playoff games.

My pick has went back and forth this week, but the fact that the Niners DE Nick Bosa ended his holdout today cemented my pick. They will need to pressure Steelers QB Kenny Pickett and Bosa could be biggest factor in this game. I’m a little shy about entrenching QB Brock Purdy as the Niners quarterback of the present and future, but the fact that they traded away backup QB Trey Lance makes me think they most certainly view him as that. I’m taking the Niners to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-6) – My pick is Washington Commanders

The 2023 season is expected to be a rebuilding year for the Arizona Cardinals. The team lost several star players during the offseason, and their quarterback, Kyler Murray, is still recovering from ACL surgery. The Cardinals are expected to finish last in their division this season. The Cardinals are predicted to win 4.5 games in 2023. They are expected to be underdogs in all 17 games.

The Washington Commanders have a promising roster for the 2023 season, but they lack a dynamic quarterback. The team’s offensive line has improved, and Sam Howell is expected to provide more than last season’s quarterbacks. The defense is expected to be one of the best in the NFL. The Commanders’ new owner, who bought the franchise for more than $6 billion, is open to a full-scale rebrand after the 2023 season. However, team president Jason Wright has said that the team will not switch back to their original name, the Redskins. The Commanders’ head coach, Ron Rivera, is under pressure to earn a playoff berth for the first time as the Commanders. He has the tools to do it with Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator and Del Rio as defensive coordinator.

I think the Commanders are an underrated team. Now that the ownership limbo is over and the team is less chaotic, they can start a new era. I like QB Sam Howell and he has a pair of backs that can bail him out. On the opposite side, I really dislike the Cardinals offense this year. It lacks playmakers and they are in for a long season. I’m taking Commanders to cover at home.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Green Bay Packers are expected to win multiple division games in 2023, but they are considered a long shot to make the playoffs. The Packers have a new starting quarterback, Jordan Love, who is replacing Aaron Rodgers. Love has said that he wants to run the offense, which means the Packers may run more. The Packers also have younger players starting at all three receiver spots and tight end. The Packers’ average over/under total for 2023 is 42 points, which is down from last year’s 47-point range. The Packers will play teams like the Raiders, Rams, Giants, Steelers, and Broncos. They will also play the NFC South, which is the weakest NFC division. If Love is a top-15 starting quarterback, the defense plays well, and the running back and receiver talent shines, the Packers could win a division title.

The Chicago Bears are optimistic about the 2023 season, but they are still a team in transition. The Bears are currently listed at +155 to make the playoffs, which equates to a 39.2% chance. The Bears will open the season against the Packers at Soldier Field. This will be the first matchup against a Green Bay squad without Aaron Rodgers. The Bears have an opportunity to break an eight-game losing streak against the Packers. The Bears have talent and depth at running back. Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, and Roschon Johnson will be the running backs. The Bears also have a top three at receiver of Moore, Chase Claypool, and Darnell Mooney. The Bears have a manageable schedule and a wide open division. They could win nine or ten games, but they could also go 6-11. Quarterback Justin Fields and his growth as a passer will determine where they fall on that scale.

I like some of the new faces on the Bears defense and think DE Yannick Ngakoue will be a fan favorite early this year. I’m also expecting a big leap from QB Justin Fields this season. He has a good arm and I think he will air out the ball and be a little smarter with his feet. The Packers will hang with the rest of the NFC North this year, but QB Jordan Love may run into some growing pains early on. I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to finish last in the AFC West in 2023. Sportsbooks have set their over/under win total at 6.5 wins. The Raiders are expected to play a lot of points, with an average over/under number of 45 points. The Raiders have signed quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year contract. They also signed wide receiver Phillip Dorsett, linebacker Robert Spillane, safety Marcus Epps, and cornerback Brandon Facyson. The Raiders have the second-toughest schedule in the NFL this season. Their biggest needs are in the secondary and at linebacker.

The Denver Broncos are expected to win 8 or 9 games in 2023. Their win total is 8.5, and they are favored in eight games. The Broncos are 17th in the NFL in terms of odds to win the Super Bowl, listed at +4500. Their odds of qualifying for the playoffs are +180. The Broncos are expected to improve from last season, but they are at least a year away from being legitimate playoff contenders. They are hoping for better coaching, fewer injuries, and more consistent play from their players.

As bad as the Broncos were in 2022, it still makes me a bit gun-shy about putting a single penny on them. I believe new head coach Sean Payton will have this team more prepared and he’s not in over his head like last year’s coach. This game could be tight, but I think the Broncos will squeak out a cover at home.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Miami Dolphins’ 2023 season doesn’t have any tricky situations, but they do have a lot of travel in the first two months. The Dolphins’ defense is expected to be better with a new coordinator and a top cornerback. If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, the Dolphins could have a top five offense and defense. The over/under line for the Dolphins is 9.5 wins. However, some say the Jets are expected to leap forward in the AFC East, so the best bet is to take the under for Miami.

The Los Angeles Chargers are favored in 13 of their 17 games in 2023. Their win total is 9.5, but they could have a 10-win season or better. The Chargers’ offense will be led by new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert has a great arm, but the Chargers will need to improve their run game. The Chargers’ defense should be better under Brandon Staley.

This game should be a fun watch. I like both teams’ secondaries and it could become frustrating for both quarterbacks. It’s been a few seasons since the Chargers secondary has been healthy. I think safety Derwin James is due for a bounce-back season. This could be another one close to the spread, but I’m taking the Chargers to inch out a cover.

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (+3.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles are expected to have a very good season in 2023. They have the best quarterback in the NFC and are the best team in the weaker of the two conferences. The Eagles have the best odds to win the NFC and the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl. Many key players are returning, but the Eagles have capable replacements.The Eagles are expected to finish 11-6, one game behind the division-leading Cowboys. They are also expected to win on the road in the wild-card round and again in Dallas in the divisional round.

The New England Patriots are expected to be a playoff contender in 2023. Their defense is expected to be a key factor in their playoff contention. The Patriots could have made the playoffs last season if not for their unusual loss to the Raiders. QB Mac Jones needs to improve early or the Patriots could look to add a veteran quarterback and move on. I could see the Patriots having the same odds of winning ten games or only winning six this year.

The Patriots are a little overrated this week. I assumed this line would be closer to a touchdown, but I’m jumping on it at just -3.5. The Eagles defense could be inconsistent this year, but they have enough playmakers to make up for that. I’m taking the Eagles to cover on the road.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off a disappointing 5-12 season. They have a young roster and a challenging schedule for the 2023 season. The Rams will play three of their first four games on the road. Four of their first five games are against teams that were in the playoffs last season, including the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles. This could be the final competitive year before they blow up this roster and get younger.

The Seattle Seahawks enter the 2023 season with a 55% chance of making the playoffs and a 13th-ranked Super Bowl odds of +3500. The Seahawks had a top-10 scoring offense last season, and their passing game was explosive. They also have two top 20 picks in the 2023 draft, including Devon Witherspoon, who many draft analysts ranked as the No. 1 cornerback. The Seahawks’ Super Bowl odds are mid-pack, which gives fans a glimmer of hope. They also have the fifth-best odds to win the NFC. However, some say that unless Smith plays at a Pro Bowl level again, they’re still a playoff longshot. They also need to figure out how to beat San Francisco, who beat them three times last year. The Seahawks’ 2023 season win total is nine wins.

The Seahawks made big strides last year and I like the depth additions of rookies WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Zach Charbonnet. They should contribute right away and add to their renewed offense. The Rams are a team on the downward trend and it could be a long season for them. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover in their opener.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3) – My pick is New York Giants

The Dallas Cowboys have a difficult schedule for the 2023 season. They play the AFC East, which could be the best division this year. They also play two of last year’s playoff teams, the Bills and Dolphins, on the road. The Cowboys’ over/under is 9.5 wins, which suggests a slide from their 12-5 record last season. However, the preseason odds are optimistic, with a season win total of over 10. The Cowboys are sixth in the NFL in terms of odds to win the Super Bowl. The Cowboys have a tough late-season stretch, playing four 2022 playoff teams, a Lions team that barely missed the postseason, and two division rivalry games.

The New York Giants could be a better team in 2023, but they may not surpass their 2022 record of 9-7-1. The Giants went 0-5 against the Eagles and Cowboys last year. If they can win one game against Philadelphia and Dallas, they could end the season at 10-7. However, if they lose all four games to the Eagles and Cowboys, they could end the season at 9-8. The Giants have a new tight end, Darren Waller, who should help if he is healthy. The offensive line is improving with top-10 picks Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal at tackle. The defense has a lot to improve upon from last season, but there were some additions. The Giants over/under win total at 7.5 wins.

I’m on the Giants bandwagon this season. QB Daniel Jones finally has a healthy group of receivers and I love the addition of TE Darren Waller. The Cowboys will be good this year, but the Giants are just underrated right now. I’m taking the points in this game.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+1.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are expected to be Super Bowl contenders in 2023. They have a talented roster, including Josh Allen, one of the top quarterbacks in the league. They also have a good defensive unit. The Bills’ first-round pick, tight end Dalton Kincaid, could also boost the offense. The Bills have the fourth-toughest schedule this season. They open the season on the road against the Jets. The Bills have the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +900. Bookmakers have them at -265 to make the playoffs.

The New York Jets have high expectations for the 2023 season with the arrival of Aaron Rodgers. The Jets finished the previous year with the fourth-best overall defense. This year, the defense should have more support from the offense. Fans are hoping for a deep playoff run. The Jets could be a Super Bowl team this season. However, the AFC East and AFC are tough.

The Bills are the team to beat in the AFC East. They have the most talent and they have the higher ceiling. The Jets have a lot of young talent and they welcome in veteran QB Aaron Rodgers to take them to the next level. I’m not sold that he’s the answer and think we could see him regress. I’m taking the Bills to cover on Monday Night Football.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 148-133-8
2023: 0-0-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on X at @Sweetbob