I went 9-7 against the spread last week.
Another week, another near-.500 week for ole’ Sweetbob. I need to snap this streak and hopefully it will happen this weekend.
It was nice to not have a load of games on Thursday again. I really had to slam through all of my weekly content on Tuesday. I like to take my time on the picks, but it couldn’t happen during a Thanksgiving week.
I had a late start to this week’s content as I went to an All Elite Wrestling signing on Tuesday in Indianapolis. It was cool to meet my very nice, very evil hero Danhausen.
Can the Cowboys cover a double-digit point spread against the Colts?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+3.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
The Bills are 8-3 outright and 5-5-1 record against the spread. They are coming off a 28-25 road win over the Lions. Buffalo faced a double-digit point spread and never really got close to a lead that large. The lead changed a few times just in the fourth quarter alone.
The Patriots are 6-5 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 33-26 road loss to the Vikings. It was a close game that saw QB Mac Jones have his best games since his early season injury. The Vikings scored ten unanswered points to finish the game.
The Bills haven’t been great against the spread in recent weeks (1-4 ATS in last five contests). They also continue to lose important players on defense and will miss LB Von Miller for a few games with a knee injury. Their offense has put up at least 28 points in three-straight games. I think that side of the ball has picked up the slack due to injuries. This is the smallest point spread they’ve faced since mid-October and I think the Bills will cover on Thursday.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
The Broncos are 3-8 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a rather depressing 23-10 road loss to the Panthers. The offense only amassed 246 total yards and couldn’t keep their offense on the field. QB Russell Wilson had one of his worst games as a pro. At best, Wilson was a non-factor in the game.
The Ravens are 7-4 outright and 4-6-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-27 road loss to the Jaguars. The game was mostly uneventful until the start of the fourth quarter. The teams combined for 33 points in the period. The Jaguars had huge balls and converted a two-point conversion with 14 seconds left in the game.
The Ravens received some bad news during Wednesday’s practice as QB Lamar Jackson left early with an injured quadriceps. He’s currently listed as questionable and we will find out more information on Thursday. Backup QB Tyler Huntley is a solid backup, but the point spread is a little high. I’m going with the Broncos to play like a professional football team, so I’m taking the points.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (+7) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
The Browns are 4-7 outright and 5-6 against the spread this season. They are coming of a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. It was a nice swansong for QB Jacoby Brissett as he goes back to the bench with Deshaun Watson’s suspension ended on Monday. The Browns running game was solid in the win and should be better going forward as defenses won’t be able to stack the box.
The Texans are 1-9-1 outright and 4-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-15 loss against the Dolphins. Miami had a 30-0 lead at halftime and they coasted in the second-half. QB Kyle Allen didn’t impress anyone in his first start of the year. He threw for 215 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
I haven’t heard anyone who expects a big game from Watson right out of the gate, but I’m betting on it. He’s facing his former team and some of his accusers are attending the game. Cleveland’s offense should run better if opposing defenses respect the passing game. I’m taking the Browns to cover on the road.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (+2.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders
The Commanders are 7-5 outright and 7-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-13 home win over the Falcons. Washington continues to rack up wins with QB Taylor Heinicke and rookie RB Brian Robinson Jr. is impressing me. As long as the defense keeps their end of the deal, they are a playoff team.
The Giants are 7-4 outright and 8-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-20 road loss to the Cowboys. They didn’t allow the Cowboys backfield to break huge runs, but they just slowly made their way down the field. The Giants defense broke down in the second-half. Also, it wasn’t a marquee day for their offense.
This will most likely be a close game since both teams flourish in low-scoring games. I think the Commanders running game should have similar success as the Cowboys backfield did on Thanksgiving. I think they should cover on the road.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-1) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are 4-7 outright and 4-6-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-27 home win over the Ravens. QB Trevor Lawrence had to carry the offense with RB Travis Etienne went down with an injury early in the game. WR Zay Jones had his best game in a Jaguars uniform as he had eleven receptions for 145 yards.
The Lions are 4-7 outright and 7-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-25 home loss to the Bills. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to impress since coming back from injury. The Lions offense struggled without him and he’s been a big gamechanger for the team.
The Lions have won four-straight games against the spread. This is the first time they’ve been favored since early October. The Jaguars offense should be able to move the ball well against the Lions defense. Detroit ranks among the worst in the league in nearly every defensive category. I’m taking the Jaguars in this game.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3) – My pick is New York Jets
The Jets are 7-4 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-10 home win over the Bears. Jets QB Mike White appears to be a huge improvement over Zach Wilson. White was able to get their young receivers in the game and they balled out on Sunday against Chicago.
The Vikings are 9-2 outright and 5-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 33-26 win over the Patriots. It was a huge rebound from the stinker they had against the Cowboys. It makes you wonder if it was just a one-game aberration.
The Vikings need a strong passing game to win (and cover) games. They could struggle against the best pass defenses…and the Jets fall into that category. I think Mike White is undervalued right now and I think they could actually win outright, so give me the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Steelers are 4-7 outright and 5-5-1 record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-17 road win over the Colts. The Steelers running game has improved the last few weeks and if they can keep that up, rookie QB Kenny Pickett will have a much easier time going forward.
The Falcons are 5-7 outright and 7-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 19-13 road loss to the Commanders. Their running game was strong, but QB Marcus Mariota continues to disappoint me. He has failed to throw for more than 165 yards in eight of his last ten games. The Falcons need more from him to win close games.
The Falcons may not give you much confidence in your bet, but they’ve been a good home team this season. This will most likely be a close game and I think Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson will play a huge role in this game. I’m taking the points.
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
The Titans are 7-4 outright and 8-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-16 home loss to the Bengals. QB Ryan Tannehill had a productive day with 291 passing yards, but he did not find the end zone himself. They needed more production in the red zone as their offense just stalled there multiple times.
The Eagles are 10-1 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 40-33 home win over the Packers. The Eagles running game was on fire with QB Jalen Hurts and RB Miles Sanders racked up a combined 300 yards on the ground.
The Titans have been undervalued all season and I think they matchup well against the Eagles. Titans RB Derrick Henry hasn’t been racked up yards like a mad man this year, so they’ve needed Tannehill more this year. I think it will be a close game and I’m taking the points.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
The Packers are 4-8 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 40-33 road loss against the Eagles. The Packers were able to sneak back into the game late after the Eagles have to settle for field goals in the fourth quarter. The Packers couldn’t complete the comeback due to their inability to stop the Eagles running game.
The Bears are 3-9 outright and 4-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-10 road loss to the Jets. QB Justin Fields wasn’t healthy enough to play and backup Trevor Siemian suffered an oblique injury during warm-ups, but still gutted it out. The defense struggle and the Jets young, talented receivers smoked the Bears secondary.
It appears that Fields is preparing to play this week. He was a full participant in practice, which is a sign that he’s ready to play. The Bears should be able to run the ball on the Packers, but Green Bay has owned Chicago in recent years. It’s hard for me to believe that a gimpy Fields can reverse the trend, so I’m taking Green Bay to cover on the road.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are 8-3 outright and 6-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 30-15 home win over the Texans. It could have been a more lopsided win, but the Dolphins clearly coasted in the second-half. I liked what I saw from QB Tua Tagovailoa in the win.
The Niners are 7-4 outright and 6-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 13-0 home win over the Saints. The win wasn’t as gaudy as some of their most recent wins, but their defense took care of the Saints. I was surprised that the Niners didn’t try to get RB Christian McCaffrey more involved in the passing game.
I am most looking forward to watching this game. I think it should be fun and it could possibly be a shoot-out. The Dolphins head coach came from the Niners and knows the team really well. I think Miami will keep it close, so I’m taking the points.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are 6-5 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 40-34 overtime loss to the Raiders. Teams are starting to figure out rookie RB Kenneth Walker III. He has been getting bottled up in recent weeks, but he still found the end zone twice in the loss.
The Rams are 3-8 outright and 3-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 26-10 road loss to the Chiefs. Backup QB Bryce Perkins wasn’t ready for the NFL and his athleticism wasn’t much of a factor either. It’s crazy how much this offense has fallen this season.
The Rams have ruled out QB Matthew Stafford for another week and they are contemplating shutting down their top stars for the rest of the year. I’m taking the Seahawks to cover on the road.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are 6-5 outright and 7-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 25-24 road win over the Cardinals. The Chargers passing offense is getting healthy and QB Justin Herbert is starting to rack up a lot of yards.
The Raiders are 4-7 outright and 5-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 40-34 overtime road win over the Seahawks. It was their second-straight overtime win in-a-row. RB Josh Jacobs broke an 86-yard rushing touchdown to win the game. Jacobs is now on the injury report with a calf injury.
If Jacobs can’t go this week, the Raiders could struggle. I like the Chargers right now and their offense should put up some big numbers this week. I’m taking the Chargers to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Chiefs are 9-2 outright and 3-7-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 26-10 home win over the Chiefs. It wasn’t a surprising outcome due to all of the Rams injury issues, yet the still failed to cover by a half-point. That’s been an issue this year, but that’s what happens when you’re a public team.
The Bengals are 7-4 outright and 8-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-16 road win over the Titans. WR Tee Higgins had a big game with 114 yards and a touchdown. He will get more help this week with WR Ja’Marr Chase returning from a hip injury.
The Chiefs have been overrated nearly all season and their offense just isn’t putting up 30+ points every game and their defense is allowing more points this year. I like that the Bengals will have Chase back this week and they have a shot at winning this game outright, so give me the points.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-11) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 4-7-1 outright and 5-7 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-17 home loss to the Steelers. New head coach Jeff Saturday shit the bed in the final two minutes with horrendous clock management. He just wasted too much time and it limited the playbook options in the final minute.
The Cowboys are 8-3 outright and 7-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-20 home win over the Giants. The Cowboys backfield is back to form of late. I think the backfield duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are arguably the best running back duo in the league.
The Colts have been below-average this season, but they haven’t been getting blown out this year. The Cowboys will most likely win, but I think the Colts will spam the ball to RB Jonathan Taylor and keep it close, so I’m taking the points.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
The Saints are 4-8 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 13-0 loss to the Niners. The Saints offense never really got off the ground. They had little-to-no running game and didn’t connect on any of their deep passes.
The Bucs are 5-6 outright and 3-7-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-17 overtime loss to the Browns. QB Tom Brady connected with WR Chris Godwin often, but they were all mostly short gains. RB Rachaad White is growing on me and I think he has promise.
I don’t expect this game to be an exciting, must-see game. It could be sloppy and I don’t expect the Bucs to win by more than a field goal, so I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 92-81-7
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob