I went 3-8-2 against the spread last week. It was by far my worst betting week in many years.
It was a brutal outcome after being on a three-week tear. You just have to shake it off, figure out what you missed and don’t let it happen again.
We don’t have a London game this week, but we have one in freaking Germany! I don’t know how I missed this when it was announced months ago. I had no clue they were expanding their normal England games and including various countries across the European Union.
Can the Packers pull off the upset against the Cowboys?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are 4-5 outright and 6-3 record against the spread. They are coming off a 20-17 home loss to the Chargers. They gave up a game-winning field goal as time expired. They didn’t have a great day passing, but their running game was on fire. They got RB Cordarrelle Patterson back from injury and RB Tyler Allgeier was a nice change-of-pace back.
The Panthers are 2-7 outright and 3-6 against the spread. They are coming off a 42-21 road loss to the Bengals. QB P.J. Walker got the start, but shit the bed in the first-half. QB Baker Mayfield actually played pretty well in the second-half, but it’s hard to glean much from his performance. The Bengals were checked out after going up 35-0 at the half.
This betting line should probably be +4.5 or greater. but it has stayed low. The Falcons and Panthers just had a 37-34 overtime came two weeks ago. I don’t think it will be as close. I’m taking the Falcons to cover on the road.
Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
This game will be played in Munich, Germany.
The Seahawks are 6-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 31-21 road win over the Cardinals. It started off slow, but it was a nice back-and-forth battle in the second-half. The Seahawks offense has been clicking really well since rookie RB Kenneth Walker III took over the starting job.
The Buccaneers are 4-5 outright and 2-6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 16-13 home win over the Rams. Tampa Bay has almost zero running game and the offense sits solely on QB Tom Brady’s shoulders. They haven’t been scoring much, so the defense is the reason they’ve won a couple games this year.
This is the first regular season game in Germany, so we don’t know how either team will perform due to all the travel. I do trust the Seahawks more than I do the Bucs. They can just play conservative on defense and play nickel or dime. I’m taking the points in this game.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Lions are 2-6 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 15-9 home win over the Packers. It was a ‘bend and don’t break’ defensive performance. They allowed the Packers march down the field and they had two flukey interceptions in the end-zone. It was an overall boring game to watch as a viewer, but the Lions should have probably lost by double-digits.
The Bears are 3-6 outright and 4-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 35-32 home loss to the Dolphins. It was a nice rebound after they were trounced by the Cowboys in their previous game. QB Justin Fields had his best game as a pro. He threw three touchdown passes and gained another 178 yards and a touchdown on the ground. It was nice to Fields be a little less run-first. He does have the ability to throw, just watch his college highlights.
The Lions offense has been a wreck since their 29-0 loss to the Patriots in early-October. The Bears are on their way up and the Lions are playing like a team that will be picking in the top-five in this year’s draft. I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are 3-6 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-20 home win over the Raiders. It was an impressive comeback win. They were down 20-7 late in the second quarter. They finished on a 17-0 run to finish the game. The Jaguars offense has been very good when it continues to feed RB Travis Etienne Jr..
The Chiefs are 6-2 outright and 3-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-17 overtime win over the Titans. They didn’t even come close to covering the -14 spread. The Chiefs haven’t been great when faced with double-digit point spreads since they appeared in the Super Bowl a few years ago.
The Jaguars aren’t a top-level team, but they haven’t lost by double-digits all season. It’s an important fact to know heading into this game. I expect a lot of Etienne in this one and I’m taking the points.
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Saints are 3-6 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-13 home loss to the Ravens. They couldn’t stop the Ravens on the ground and their offense was stagnant for most of the game. They finally found the end zone in the final minutes of the game after hitting WR Juwan Johnson on a 41-yard touchdown.
The Steelers are 2-6 outright and 3-4-1 against the spread. They are coming off their bye, and in their previous game, they lost 35-13 loss to the Eagles. This will be their first game since trading WR Chase Claypool. It will be interesting to see who will step up to take his targets. I think rookie QB Kenny Pickett will look better after an extra week of study.
I don’t quite understand why the Saints are favored in this game. They’ve been a horrid road team this year. I think Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready after a bye, so I’m taking the points.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The Browns are 3-5 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye, and in their previous game, won at home over the Bengals 32-13. The Browns were in the driver’s seat the entire game. They were able to drain the clock and hope the Bengals didn’t have time to catch up late in the game.
The Dolphins are 6-3 outright and 4-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 35-32 road win over the Bears. They failed to cover the four-point spread due to a garbage-time Bears touchdown. The Dolphins tried to fix their running game by adding RB Jeff Wilson Jr.. He needs a little more time in the offense. I do like the duo of Raheem Mostert and Wilson as they have experience together in San Francisco with head coach Mike McDaniel.
During Miami’s three-game outright winning streak, they are 1-2 against the spread…but they only failed to cover in those ATS losses by a single point each. I like their team against the Browns and I think they will cover at home.
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-4) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are 7-1 outright and a 3-4-1 record against the spread. They are coming off a 20-17 road win over the Commanders. Minnesota needed a 13-point fourth quarter to get the outright win (and a push against the spread). It took awhile for Cousins to get the passing game going. He had an uncharacteristically inaccurate performance, but he turned it on late.
The Bills are 6-2 outright and 4-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 20-17 road loss to the Jets. They have now failed to cover in back-to-back double-digit point spreads. They were being overrated by bettors and I think they are still a little going into this game. I worry about QB Josh Allen’s injured throwing elbow going forward.
The Bills secondary has suffered a lot of injuries this season. I fear they will have issues covering WR Justin Jefferson on Sunday. The Bills offense could keep them in this game, but Allen’s injury gives me pause…so I’m taking the points.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-3) – My pick is Denver Broncos
The Broncos are 3-5 outright and have the same against the spread this year. They are coming off their bye, and in their previous game, they beat the Jaguars 21-17 in London. It was the first time Denver’s offense looked solid during QB Russell Wilson’s arrival. The Broncos may never rack up 30+ points per game, but they thankfully have a solid defense to help out.
The Titans are 5-3 outright and 6-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-17 overtime road loss to the Chiefs. Rookie QB Malik Willis has been ‘safe’ at quarterback. He only throws it around a dozen times per game and the offense is nearly all on the ground. It’s unknown if Ryan Tannehill will be healthy enough to start in this week’s game.
This contest could be another low-scoring, close affair for Denver. It doesn’t really matter which quarterback starts for Tennessee. It all comes down to Denver stopping Tennessee’s running game. This could be a close one, so I’m taking the points.
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-4.5) – My pick is New York Giants
The Texans are 1-6-1 outright and 4-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 29-17 home loss to the Eagles. Houston were able to keep the game within a touchdown for most of the game. The game got out of hand after allowing a touchdown (and two-point conversion) early in the fourth quarter. The Texans are a competitive team when they feed rookie RB Dameon Pierce the ball (but he’s a little banged up).
The Giants are 6-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they lost 27-13 to Seattle. They were on a roll before that loss after being on a four-game outright winning streak (and covered them all). The Giants young receivers have stepped up and their offense is more balanced.
The Giants have been underrated all season and I still feel like they are slightly headed into this game. The Texans are just 2-3-1 against the spread in their last six games. I like Giants QB Daniel Jones and think he could have another solid performance. I’m taking the Giants to cover at home.
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-6) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders
The Colts are 3-5-1 outright and are 3-6 against the spread. They are coming off an ugly 26-3 road loss to the Patriots. Colts QB Sam Ehlinger didn’t complete his first pass until the second quarter. He was also without RB Jonathan Taylor and the offense sputtered. The team looked so bad that head coach Frank Reich lost his job.
The Raiders are 2-6 outright and 3-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-20 road loss to the Jaguars. Many thought they would be a playoff team this year, but after a handful of close losses to start the season, they are in a huge hole. They need more out of RB Josh Jacobs right now.
The Colts are the perfect team for the Raiders to face to get some confidence. It’s unknown if Taylor will be healthy enough to play this week, but it looks promising. The Colts will need more than just him to keep this game close. I’m taking the Raiders to cover at home.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (+5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 6-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Bears 49-29. The bye week has given QB Dak Prescott another week to fully heal his thumb. The offense has been consistent since he returned.
The Packers are 3-6 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a poor performance against the Lions, as they lost 15-9 on the road. QB Aaron Rodgers needs to take a backseat and allow his running game to help him out. He’s making too many mistakes trying to do too much with his young receivers.
The Packers have had great seasons under Rodgers and they’ve had a couple disasters. It seems when things start to go in a downhill direction, it completely goes off the rails. I don’t have faith of them turning their season around. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover in this game.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are 3-6 outright and 4-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-21 home loss to the Seahawks. QB Kyler Murray had a solid game, but he didn’t get WR DeAndre Hopkins involved much. They’ve had their miscues and Murray leaned on WR Rondale Moore when he’s in a jam. He’s a speedy slot receiver whose elusiveness is a huge plus.
The Rams are 3-5 outright and 2-5-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 16-13 road loss to the Bucs. The Rams passing game involves WR Cooper Kupp and not much else. QB Matthew Stafford needs to get more receivers involved at some point. He isn’t helped a lot by his backfield. They have a handful of young backs, but none of them are doing much with their touches.
If the Cardinals can break a couple plays and crack 21 points, the Rams may have trouble racking up enough points to compete. The Rams have owned the Cardinals in recent years (1-8-1 ATS in their last ten meetings), but I think they’ll keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.
Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are 5-3 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-17 win against the Falcons. They came into the game short-handed at receiver but guys like Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter stepped up in the win. It’s currently unknown if wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are healthy enough to suit up on Sunday.
The Niners are 4-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Rams 31-14. The rare scoring trio happened in the win when RB Christian McCaffrey passed, rushed and received touchdowns. Teams will need to focus on McCaffrey going forward and it could free up the deep pass.
The Niners are a much better team with McCaffrey, but it’s hard to cover a touchdown+ point spread against Chargers QB Justin Herbert. He has a lot of arm talent and they should get a least one of his injured receivers back for this game. I’m taking the points on Sunday Night Football.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) – My pick is Washington Commanders
The Commanders are 4-5 outright and 4-4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-17 home loss against the Vikings. Washington is clearly a better team with QB Taylor Heinicke under center. He is able to evade the rush, make throws out of the pocket and he’s underrated running the ball. He may not win many shoot-outs, but when his defense keeps it close, he can pull off an upset a few times a year.
The Eagles are 8-0 outright and 5-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 29-17 road win over the Texans. They were unable to cover the fourteen-point betting line. It’s hard to cover double-digit point spreads and it’s hard to cover them in back-to-back games (they covered against the Steelers in Week 8).
The Eagles are undefeated outright and they will face a lot of double-digit point spreads going forward. They are flirting with being overrated right now. The Eagles beat a Carson Wentz-led Commanders 24-8 in late-September. Washington and Philly have played each other close in recent years. The Eagles haven’t beaten the Commanders by more than 10.5 points since late-2018. I’m taking the points in this game.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 69-62-5
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob