Last week, I went 13-12 against the spread during Week 8 of the college football season.
There are a couple huge SEC games this week. Georgia faces Florida in a neutral site game in Jacksonville, and Kentucky travels to Tennessee. Those games will extra interesting because Tennessee and Georgia play each other next week. Could we see a couple trap games?
Can Ohio State cover a double-digit point spread over Penn State in Happy Valley?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 9 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (October 29th, 2022).
Ohio State at Penn State (+15.5) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State Buckeyes are 7-0 outright and 4-2-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 54-10 home win over Iowa. We all know that Iowa’s offense is putrid, but the Hawkeyes defense usually steps up to keep them in games. Iowa’s quarterback play dug themselves a huge hole. QB C.J. Stroud had a fairly easy outing in the blowout win.
The Penn State Nittany Lions are 6-1 outright and 4-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 45-17 home win over Minnesota. It was a nice rebound win after a 24-point defeat against Michigan. QB Sean Clifford had his best game since early-September and their running game extended the lead late in the game.
These two teams have had some barnburners over the last decade. I don’t see this game being very close as the talent disparity is pretty wide. If Penn State couldn’t hang with Michigan, I expect a similar outcome against Ohio State. I’m taking the Buckeyes to cover on the road.
Notre Dame at Syracuse (-2.5) – My pick is Syracuse Orange
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 4-3 outright and 3-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 44-21 home win over UNLV. The Irish got out to a big lead early, but they let UNLV stay within a few scores, so Notre Dame didn’t cover the -26 spread. The Irish didn’t bust huge gains against UNLV, but their running game was consistent enough to average around five yards per carry on their 47 attempts. They need their backfield to shine as QB Drew Pyne is limited at quarterback.
The Syracuse Orange is 6-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-21 road loss to Clemson. The Orange had a double-digit lead on Clemson in the first-half, but the Tigers benched QB D.J. Uiagalelei and their backup QB got the outright win. It was a shame that QB Garret Shrader didn’t have a little more help. He’s been a one-man offense at times for Syracuse. Their defense is also another huge reason why they’ve been a great betting team this season.
Notre Dame’s offense may not be able to extend many drives against Syracuse. The Orange only allow 15.1 points per game and the Irish will need more than that if they hope to keep this game within a field goal. I’m taking Syracuse to cover at home.
Florida vs Georgia (-22.5) – My pick is Florida Gators
This game will be played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.
The Florida Gators are 4-3 outright and 3-4 against the spread. They are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they suffered a 35-45 home loss to LSU. Florida’s pass defense really shit the bed by allowing LSU QB Jayden Daniels to throw for 349 yards on the way to an upset win. The Gators have been an inconsistent betting team this year, but they’ve showed up a couple times as underdogs this season (at Tennessee in Week 4 & vs Utah in Week 1).
The Georgia Bulldogs are 7-0 outright and 4-3 against the spread. They are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they blanked Vanderbilt 55-0. Georgia may be the most talented team in the country, but anything can happen against an SEC rival. They have a big game against Tennessee next week, so they could get caught overlooking the Gators.
Trap games are very real this time of year. I don’t see Georgia losing this game outright, but this point spread is a tad bloated for a neutral site game. I’m taking the points in this one.
Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-1.5) – My pick is Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 6-1 outright and 5-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-34 home win over Texas. QB Spencer Sanders carried his team in the fourth quarter and scored 14 unanswered points in the final period. The Cowboys defense are statistically one of the worst in the Big 12, but they have came up with stops with the game on the line.
The Kansas State Wildcats are 5-2 outright and 4-2-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-28 road loss to TCU. They lost QB Adrian Martinez (lower body) early in the game and the Wildcats offense missed his ability to extend plays. They have some big games coming up and injuries at quarterback could tank their season.
Kansas State have their top two quarterbacks listed as questionable going into this game. Their statuses are up in the air as of Thursday afternoon. There are too many question marks with Kansas State, so I’m going with Oklahoma State on Saturday.
Kentucky at Tennessee (-12) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
The Kentucky Wildcats are 5-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they had a 27-17 home win over Mississippi State. They were able to get QB Will Levis back for that one, which was a huge for Kentucky. They will need their offense to have their best game to stay within double-digits on Saturday.
The Tennessee Volunteers are 7-0 outright and 6-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 65-24 home win over UT-Martin. The starters got some reps in, but it was just a glorified practice for the Volunteers. The offense will always be there for Tennessee this season, but their defense is giving up a lot of points and it could bite them in the backside one of these weeks.
As I said early, Tennessee travels to Georgia next week, so a trap game is possible. Kentucky’s defense is better than most of the mid-tier SEC teams. I am just not sold on their offense keeping up with Vols QB Hendon Hooker. I’m taking Tennessee to cover on Saturday.
Michigan State at Michigan (-22.5) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
The Michigan State Spartans are 3-4 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Wisconsin 34-28 in overtime. They haven’t been competitive against Big Ten teams this season, so it was surprised that they got an outright win over Wisconsin. The Badgers are inconsistent, but it was still unexpected.
The Michigan Wolverines are 7-0 outright and 4-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they beat Penn State 41-17. The Wolverines have been riding the back of RB Blake Corum, who should get some Heisman votes this season. I expect the Wolverines will give the Spartans a 30-carry dose of Corum on Saturday.
Michigan should take care of business on Saturday. I know this is rivalry game and their last two games were won outright by the Spartans by a combined seven points…but I really like Corum this season. Michigan State couldn’t stop Minnesota’s running game, so the Wolverines should eat well this week. I’m taking Michigan to cover at home.
Ole Miss at Texas A&M (+1.5) – My pick is Ole Miss Rebels
The Mississippi Rebels are 7-1 outright and 3-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 45-20 road loss to LSU. The Tigers have snuck up on a few teams lately and they dominated Ole Miss in the second-half. Rebels QB Jaxson Dart needs to regain his early-season accuracy and limit turnovers. He has a TD/INT radio of 6/5 over his last four games (they are 1-3 against the spread during this stretch).
The Texas A&M Aggies are 3-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 30-24 road loss to South Carolina. The Aggies are dealing with some personnel issues as they’ve had to suspend a few freshman this week for disciplinary reasons. The season could get out of hand with another outright loss. Also, they have struggled against the run this year and it could be an issue on Saturday.
Both of these teams come into this game with a lot of scars. Ole Miss has a more diverse offense and could lean on their ground game to exploit A&M’s struggles against the run. I’m rolling the dice and I’m taking Ole Miss to cover on the road.
Oklahoma at Iowa State (+1) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
The Oklahoma Sooners are 4-3 outright and 2-5 against the spread this season. They are coming off a bye week, and in their previous game, they defeated Kanas 52-42 at home. The Sooners are still licking their wounds from getting blanked 49-0 by Texas. Their defense needs a complete overhaul at this point. They may need to slow the game down on offense to keep their defense off the field. They could try to play the ‘time of possession’ game.
The Iowa State Cyclones are 3-4 outright and 3-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a bye, and in their previous game, they lost on the road to Texas 24-21. The Cyclones have one of the best defenses in the Big 12, but their offense isn’t on the same level. QB Hunter Dekkers is trying to do too much right now and needs some help from his backfield.
This game will be a styles clash. Oklahoma has one gear on offense and shoot-outs are common. I know the Sooners have made some stops in their secondary late in games, but their biggest weakness is against the run. I’m not sure if Iowa State has the talent to take advantage of that. I’m taking Oklahoma to cover on the road.
Cincinnati at UCF (-1) – My pick is UCF Knights
The Cincinnati Bearcats are 6-1 outright and 2-4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 29-27 road win over SMU. Cincinnati haven’t been living up to expectations of late. They have only covered one game over their last five games. They are struggling to extend leads against conference foes.
The Central Florida Knights are 5-2 outright and 4-3 against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 34-13 road loss to East Carolina. QB John Rhys Plumlee was uncharacteristically loose with the ball with three interceptions. I don’t see that being an issue most games. Plumlee has been pretty damn good for UCF. He was more known for his running skills early in his college career at Ole Miss. He has turned into a solid passer and a bit under-the-radar.
Cincinnati is living off last season’s success. They don’t have the same talent on offense and they will have trouble matching scores with UCF on Saturday. I’m taking the Knights to cover at home.
Toledo at Eastern Michigan (+6.5) – My pick is Toledo Rockets
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game.
The Toledo Rockets are 5-3 outright and 4-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-27 road loss to Buffalo. Toledo were -7.5 favorites, but Buffalo are better than their record. The Rockets had a stranglehold on the game until the fourth quarter, when Buffalo scored 24 unanswered points. QB DeQuan Finn choked and threw four interceptions in the loss. It was an unexpected outcome as Finn was coming off six touchdown performance against Kent State.
The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 5-3 outright and 3-5 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-16 road win over Ball State. They’ve struggled on defense this season, so it was better than expected. Eastern Michigan’s defense is 99th in the country in points allowed with 30.6 points per game.
The Rockets have been able to rack up a lot of points against MAC teams this season. Last week’s complete collapse from Finn may have ruined a possible MAC Championship run. I expect he will rebound and Toledo’s offense will go back to racking up 40+ points again. I’m taking the Rockets to cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
Wake Forest at Louisville (+3.5) – My pick is Wake Forest
UAB at Florida Atlantic (+5.5) – My pick is UAB
Missouri at South Carolina (-3.5) – My pick is South Carolina
Arkansas at Auburn (+3) – My pick is Arkansas
Baylor at Texas Tech (-2.5) – My pick is Baylor
Pittsburgh at North Carolina (-3) – My pick is North Carolina
TCU at West Virginia (+7) – My pick is TCU
Georgia Tech at Florida State (-24.5) – My pick is Georgia Tech
Rutgers at Minnesota (-14) – My pick is Rutgers
SMU at Tulsa (+2.5) – My pick is SMU
BONUS PICKS!
Coastal Carolina at Marshall (-2.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina
Middle Tennessee at UTEP (-1.5) – My pick is UTEP
Wyoming at Hawaii (+10.5) – My pick is Wyoming
Miami (OH) at Akron (+8.5) – My pick is Akron
North Texas at Western Kentucky (-10.5) – My pick is North Texas
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 111-86-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.