I went 10-4 against the spread last week.

I was finally able to crack a streak of .500-ish weeks. I was able to sweep the late-Sunday slate and all of the Primetime games. It was nice to get the monkey off my back, but I need to keep this going. 

We have some quarterbacks that could return from injuries this week. Miami, New England and Dallas could all have their signal-callers in uniform this weekend.

Can the Falcons stay perfect against the spread?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-1) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Saints are 2-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 30-26 home loss to the Bengals. Saints QB Andy Dalton may have won the starting QB job in the loss. The Saints offense has been much better with him under center. The Cardinals are 2-4 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-9 loss in Seattle. They lost WR Hollywood Brown (foot) is expected to be out six weeks, but they get WR DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension. Murray hasn’t been great lately, but I do like what he’s doing with his legs lately. He needs to be more dual-threat, and it worked in small bursts last game. Thursday games have been horrible of late, but this one should be a little better. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover at home.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

This Lions are 1-4 outright and 3-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, were shutout 29-0 in New England. The passing offense wasn’t there and the loss of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown could be the reason. It didn’t help that their run defense has been awful of late. The Cowboys are 4-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 26-17 road loss to the Eagles. Backup QB Cooper Rush threw three picks, which was unexpected as he has been pretty damn good in relief. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (finger) is expected to play this week. He will bring some consistency to the offense and the home run ball they’ve been missing. I also think the Cowboys backfield should do very well this week. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover at home.

Green Bay Packers at Washington Commanders (+4.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 3-3 outright and 2-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-10 home loss to the Jets. They couldn’t get the ball moving on the ground and QB Aaron Rodgers had to turn to his tight end to move the ball, which he hasn’t done since the days of Jermichael Finley. It was nice to see that adjustment in the passing offense. The Commanders are 2-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 12-7 road win over the Bears. They lost starting QB Carson Wentz (finger) for a month or so and will start QB Taylor Heinicke this week. He’s had some success as the starter for the team in the past. He has some dual-threat ability that can lead to him extending plays. This game could be a bit close at times, but I like Green Bay’s secondary a lot. I’m going with the Packers to cover on the road.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are 3-2-1 outright and 3-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-27 home win over the Jaguars. It was the first time Colts QB Matt Ryan purposefully carried the team on his back. He was 42 for 58 for 389 yards and three touchdowns. His confidence was in full display and hopefully it carries into this one. The Titans 3-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, beat the Commanders 21-17 on the road. The Titans have won (and covered) their last four meetings against the Colts. I think the Colts are a little underrated right now. They will keep this one close, or even win outright, so I’m taking the points.

New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) – My pick is New York Giants

The Giants are 5-1 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-20 home win over the Ravens. They’ve been able to stay in games because of their improved defense. Their offense isn’t great, but they’ve been consistent enough to put points on the board when their defense makes early stops. The Jaguars are 2-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 34-27 road loss to the Colts. They were able to run the ball on Indianapolis, but they failed on too many third downs. They need to give QB Trevor Lawrence a little more leash. I like the addition of WR Christian Kirk and he was having success early this season, but that has been put on ice. That being said, the Giants defense is pretty damn good and will keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+10.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs are 3-3 outright and 2-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-18 road loss to the Steelers. It was a below-average outing from QB Tom Brady. He even lost his cool on his offensive line. I don’t expect him to have back-to-back outings like that. The Panthers are 1-5 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-10 road loss to the Rams. They went into the game without QB Baker Mayfield and lost backup QB P.J. Walker (neck) in the loss. Fourth-string QB Jacob Eason played a large portion of the game. It’s currently unknown who will start this week as QB Sam Darnold was lifted off the injured-reserve. It honestly doesn’t matter to me as all four are extremely flawed. I’m taking the Bucs to bounce-back and cover on the road.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Browns are 2-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 38-15 home loss to the Patriots. Browns bailed on the running game and QB Jacoby Brissett doesn’t have the arm that you can rely on to make a comeback. He didn’t even complete half of his passing attempts. The Ravens are 3-3 outright and 2-3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 24-20 road loss to the Giants. The Ravens had some big plays on the ground, but the passing game is still a work in progress in Baltimore. They had a ten-point lead in the fourth quarter, but the Giants scored two touchdowns in the final six minutes to get the outright win. The Ravens and Browns will both lean on their running game on Sunday. I expect the Ravens will win outright, but I could see the Browns score late to keep it within the spread, so I’m taking the points.

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Falcons are 3-3 outright and 6-0 against the spread this year. They are coming off a 28-14 home win over the Niners. They were able to get out to a 14-0 start thanks to their passing game and a fumble recovery touchdown. They didn’t miss RB Cordarrelle Patterson much since they used a few running backs in his place. They split the carries between Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley almost 50/50, as neither stood out, but did enough to get first downs. Atlanta’s defense was the biggest surprise in the win. The Bengals are 3-3 outright and 4-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-26 road win over the Saints. They had to come from behind to get the win over their former quarterback. Bengals QB Joe Burrow was outstanding in the fourth quarter comeback. I know the Falcons have been underrated this year. They are perfect against the spread, so they could be a tad overrated now, but it’s not by much. If this spread goes above a touchdown, I would stay away from it, but as of right now, I’m taking the Bengals to cover at home.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Jets are 4-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-10 road win over the Packers. The Jets backfield is a huge reason for their improvement. Rookie RB Breece Hall is the perfect complement to sophomore RB Michael Carter. Both running backs have great hands, which is a huge boon for QB Zach Wilson. Also, young defensive stars like CB Sauce Gardner is another reason for the Jets improvement. The Broncos are 2-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 19-16 overtime loss to the Chargers. Honestly, if Denver’s defense wasn’t so solid, they would easily be 0-6 right now. Their games are awful to watch and their offense is as smooth as Charles Barkley’s golf swing. I’m going with the points in this game.

Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders (-7) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Texans are 1-3-1 outright and are 3-1-1 against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, they beat the Jaguars 13-6. A lot has gone wrong in Houston this season, but they have found a solid RB in rookie Dameon Pierce. The Raiders are 1-4 outright and 2-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous game, lost to the Chiefs 30-29. It was a frustrating loss that saw WR Davante Adams push a photographer after the game. The Raiders are better than their current record. They were on the wrong end of four close games this season. I expect they will come out hot and cover this one at home.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are 4-2 outright and are 2-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-20 home loss to the Bills. It was a fun game, but the Bills were able to score touchdowns in the second-half. I’m starting to worry about the Chiefs running game. I know it’s hard to run on the Bills, but they’ve had poor rushing outcomes in back-to-back games. The 49ers are 3-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 28-14 road win over the Falcons. The Niners were in a 14-0 deficit early in the game and completely bailed on their running game. It wasn’t an ideal offensive strategy for San Francisco. The Niners don’t have the offense to wage a double-digit comeback. I think the Chiefs have the offense to get out on the Niners early. I have to take the Chiefs to cover on the road.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are 3-3 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming of a 19-9 home win over the Cardinals. Seattle’s defense sacked Murray six times and rookie RB Kenneth Walker III had a star performance in the win. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Seattle this season. The Chargers are 4-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 19-16 overtime win over the Broncos. They have been inconsistent on the ground and that was the case again against Denver. The Chargers are just too inconsistent as a whole on offense to take when they are favored by a touchdown. I’m taking the points in this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Steelers are 2-4 outright and have 2-3-1 record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-18 home win over the Bucs. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett had to leave the game with a concussion and QB Mitchell Trubisky led the team to a fourth quarter touchdown to extend their lead. It looks like Pickett could start this week if he is cleared, which is a plus for Pittsburgh fans. The Dolphins are 3-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-16 home loss to the Vikings. The Dolphins had to rely on backup quarterbacks Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson the last two games. It looks like Tua Tagovailoa will be healthy enough to suit up this week. I expect a big passing game and I expect the Dolphins will cover at home.

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-7.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Bears are 2-4 outright and 2-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 12-7 home loss to the Commanders. The Bears might be the most confusing team in the league. They have some playmakers at every position on offense, but QB Justin Fields doesn’t have the NFL-level throwing ability, or confidence, right now. They have some talented running backs to help him, so they will lean on them this season. The Patriots are 3-3 outright and 3-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-15 road win over the Browns. Rookie QB Bailey Zappe carried the team on his back for the blowout win. It appears that QB Mac Jones is close to being fully healthy. No starting quarterback has been named as of yet. I think Bill Belichick will eliminate the Bears running game and will force Fields to throw. If he is successfully in making that happen, the Patriots should cover this game.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 47-44-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob