I went 7-9 against the spread last week.

I’ve been hovering around .500 nearly every week this season. I need a big week to break away. I feel pretty solid about my picks this week.

We have two less games on the schedule due to bye weeks. There are a lot of home underdogs this week, are you going to take the bait?

It looks like we could see a couple starting quarterbacks return this week. Patriots QB Mac Jones and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott have a shot to suit up this weekend. Also, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has a small chance of playing as well.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season.

Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears (-1) – My pick is Washington Commanders

The Commanders are 1-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 21-17 home loss to the Titans. They couldn’t get their running game going and had to rely on QB Carson Wentz’s arm. He wasn’t bad, but you’re going to struggle when a team makes a Wentz-led team, a one-dimensional offense. He made a couple outstanding throws to WR Dyami Brown that went for scores. The Bears are 2-3 outright and 2-2-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 29-22 road loss to the Vikings. Bears QB Justin Fields had one of his better days passing the ball, but the Vikings stopped their running game. The Bears defense is struggling right now and did not play well last week. Wentz has a shoulder injury, but is practicing and is expected to play. I expect him to have his third-straight 300+ yard game this Thursday. I’m taking the Commanders outright.

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (+1.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

This Bengals are 2-3 outright and 3-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 19-17 road loss to the Ravens. It was an inconsistent performance, but their defense stepped up many times to force field goals. They would have got the outright win if they would stop TE Mark Andrews that final drive. The Saints are 2-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 39-32 home win over the Seahawks. Saints QB Jameis Winston missed the game and backup QB Andy Dalton was good enough for the win. TE Taysom Hill had a nutty fantasy game with a passing touchdown and three rushing touchdowns. The Bengals were beaten by Andrews last week, but Hill isn’t anywhere near the talent level as him. It looks like Dalton will most likely start on Sunday and I think the Bengals will cover on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are 2-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 13-6 home loss to the Texans. It was a sloppy game all-around with QB Trevor Lawrence throwing two picks and only completing 25 of 47 passing attempts. Jacksonville’s defense was solid, but their offense left them with bad field position late in the game. The Colts are 2-2-1 outright and 2-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 12-9 overtime road win over the Broncos. It was a God awful game and both teams should have gotten a loss out of that one. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor missed the contest due to a high-ankle sprain, and his status for this game is still cloudy. The Jaguars have had the Colts number recently and are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games. The Colts offense is rough, so I have to take the points.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (+5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are 3-2 outright and 2-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 19-17 home win over the Bengals. They leaned on TE Mark Andrews when it counted and kicker Justin Tucker is automatic in game-winning field goal attempts. I was surprised that they couldn’t run better on the Bengals, which could be an issue later in the season. The Giants are 4-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-22 win against the Packers in London. The Giants looked like they were going to get smashed early, but they stayed close enough for them to make a comeback in the fourth quarter. They made enough big plays to make up for a lot of failed drives. They don’t match up well against the Ravens. Also, teams usually don’t fare well when they come back from London without a bye week. I’m taking the Ravens to cover on the road.

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are 3-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 37-15 road win over the Panthers. The Niners offense was clicking with RB Jeff Wilson Jr. playing like an RB1 and QB Jimmy Garoppolo had one of his better games of the year. The Falcons are 2-3 outright and 5-0 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 21-15 road loss to the Bucs. Their offense struggled without RB Cordarrelle Patterson and their pass defense completely folded. I like Falcons QB Marcus Mariota, but he needs some help. I’m taking the Niners to cover on the road.

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Jets are 3-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 40-17 home win over the Dolphins. It was close game until the fourth quarter. The Jets defense forced Dolphins rookie QB Skylar Thompson into some short drives. The Jets offense is underrated and I really like the Jets backfield. If Jets QB Zach Wilson can lean on his running backs while continuing to develop his skills, he could win games while learning on the job. The Packers are 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-22 loss to the Giants in London. Green Bay got caught relaxing in the fourth quarter. Their defense sold them in the fourth quarter. The Jets are still undervalued when it comes to point spreads. I’m taking the points on Sunday.

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-3) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Patriots are 2-3 outright and 2-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 29-0 home shutout win over the Lions. Patriots third-string rookie QB Bailey Zappe was accurate and didn’t do anything negative to hurt the team. It looks like Mac Jones ‘could’ start this week, but it’s not set in stone. I look for New England’s backfield to pick up the slack of Jones isn’t 100%. The Browns are 2-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 30-28 home loss to the Chargers. The Browns needed a better quarterback to win this sort of game. If you can keep the opposing teams to 28 points or less, he’s the quarterback you want…but not anything higher than that. I expect this will be a run-heavy game and the Browns just allowed the Chargers to run 238 against them. The Patriots have a better offensive line and should do well, so I’m taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread this year. They are coming off a 21-15 home win over the Falcons. It was a predictable outcome as the Falcons offense is dog water without RB Cordarrelle Patterson. Bucs QB Tom Brady had his best game of the season in the win. The Steelers are 1-4 outright and 1-3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-3 road loss against the Bills. It was rookie QB Kenny Pickett’s first start and he had a ‘welcome to the NFL’ game. He’s a very capable quarterback and will be very good in this league, but he has no running game. He has a rough opponent this week and the score will be lopsided once again, so I’m taking the Bucs to cover.

Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (+3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are 4-1 outright and are 1-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 29-22 home win over the Bears. The offense played well with RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson putting up solid numbers. The Vikings defense gave up a couple big plays, but did its job overall. They drained the clock and scored late to get the win. The Dolphins are 3-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 40-17 road loss to the Jets. They lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to concussion-protocol early in the loss. It appears that rookie QB Skylar Thompson is going to get his first start. I’m taking the Vikings to cover.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Cardinals are 2-3 outright and are 3-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-17 home loss to the Eagles. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray made a boner late in the game by spiking the ball on third down, and their kickers shanked it. Arizona’s defense stepped up, but they had no answer for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts. The Seahawks are 2-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 39-32 road loss to the Saints. The Saints running game just drained the hell out of the clock. Seattle had some moments in the fourth quarter, but the Saints were able to take the lead with a few minutes left. Seahawks QB Geno Smith isn’t a bad quarterback, and I’m surprised that I’m saying that. The Seahawks are underrated right now, so I’ll take the points.

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Panthers are 1-4 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a  37-15 home loss to the Niners. Carolina QB Baker Mayfield was injured late in the loss. He will be out for a few weeks, and Carolina may just keep him on the bench. Backup QB P.J. Walker relieved him and did just fine. I do fear about him long-term as the starter since his track record is piss-poor. The Rams are 2-3 outright and 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 22-10 home loss to the Cowboys. I’m a little worried about Rams QB Matthew Stafford. He’s playing like he is back in Detroit. He puts up a lot of yards, but drives stall out before any points are on the board. He needs his backfield to help him a little more. I still think their team is way more talented than the Panthers. I’m taking the Rams to cover at home.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills are 4-1 outright and 3-1-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-3 home win over the Steelers. It was never close as WR Gabe Davis went off and the Bills were up 31-3 at halftime. They just coasted in the second-half of the game. The Chiefs are 30-29 home win over the Raiders. Las Vegas couldn’t stop TE Travis Kelce and Kansas City leaned on him in the red zone. The Chiefs are not a good team against the spread as they are a very public team. The causal bettors as suckers and bet on them every week. I just love the Bills this season and they should cover on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Cowboys are 4-1 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 22-10 road win over the Rams. Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush went into game manager mode and leaned heavily on running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. QB Dak Prescott is still a long shot to play on Sunday night. The Eagles are 5-0 outright and 3-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-17 road win over the Cardinals. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has developed into a stud quarterback. He has a lot of help and might be the best overall team in the NFC. I’m taking the Eagles to cover at home.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos are 2-3 outright and 1-4 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 12-9 home overtime loss to the Colts. It was a horrid game all around and Broncos QB Russell Wilson is a shell of himself. Denver’s defense is the only reason why they have any wins. They’ve hit the bottom and they have too many talented guys on both sides of the ball to stay mediocre. The Chargers are 3-2 outright and 4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 30-28 road win over the Browns. They finally got some life out of their running game, which is surprising considering their injuries on the offensive line. These teams often play each other close, no matter the talent-gap every year. Due to the Broncos defense, I’m going to take the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 37-40-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob