Last week, I went 14-11 against the spread during Week 5 of the college football season.
We have some noteworthy Big 12 games this week. We should know a lot about the layout of the conference after Saturday. TCU plays Kansas (both surprisingly undefeated) and Texas faces Oklahoma.
Will TCU take care of business on the road or will Kansas continue their Cinderella run this season?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 6 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (October 8th, 2022).
Tennessee at LSU (+3) – My pick is Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee is 4-0 outright and 3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous games, beat Florida 38-33. Volunteers QB Hendon Hooker has turned into an NFL prospect, which wasn’t the case before he transferred to Tennessee. LSU is 4-1 outright and 3-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 21-17 road win over Auburn. The Tigers offense hasn’t been great against top-tier teams. The passing game almost appears broken at the moment. The Tigers just aren’t playing their best right now and they will need their best to keep this game close, so I’m taking Tennessee to cover.
Texas vs Oklahoma (+7) – My pick is Texas Longhorns
Texas is 3-2 outright and 4-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-20 home win over West Virginia. They got out to a 28-0 lead and weren’t in trouble at any point. The Longhorns passing game hasn’t taken a hit since QB Hudson Card was needed in relief of Quinn Ewers. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian hasn’t committed if Ewers is healthy enough to suit up in this game. Oklahoma is 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 55-24 road loss to TCU. It was their second loss in-a-row and shows that their defense might not be up to par with the rest of the Big 12. I’m taking Texas to cover in this game.
Arkansas at Mississippi State (-10) – My pick is Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas is 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 49-26 home loss to Alabama. The Razorbacks played them close in the first-half, but Alabama pulled away, even with their backup QB under center. They couldn’t stop the Tide’s running game. Mississippi State is 4-1 outright and 3-1-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 42-24 home win over Texas A&M. As long as MSU QB Will Rogers can air it out and take care of the ball, they will be in every game and can extend leads in a hurry. It’s very hard to cover double-digit point spreads in the SEC. Arkansas is a good team, but you sometimes need to throw out outcomes against the elite SEC teams. Yes, Alabama smoked them last week, but I think they keep this game within a touchdown, so I’m taking the points.
TCU at Kansas (+6.5) – My pick is TCU Horned Frogs
TCU is 4-0 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 55-24 home win over Oklahoma. They have been playing better and better as the weeks go by. TCU QB Max Duggan is developing into a solid dual-threat quarterback. Kansas is 5-0 outright and have the same record against the spread this season, They are coming off a 14-11 home win over Iowa State. It wasn’t a pretty win, but Kansas would have lost by double-digit points against an opponent like that just one season ago. The Jayhawks are a surprise team and I like a lot of players, but this is their first true test. They are probably a touch overrated at the moment. I think TCU will win this game by double-digits. I’m taking TCU to cover on the road.
BYU vs Notre Dame (-3.5) – My pick is BYU Cougars
This game is taking place at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. BYU is 4-1 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-26 home win over Utah State. It was their third-straight loss against the spread. BYU needed a strong second-half to get the outright win. Notre Dame is 2-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off their bye week, and in their previous contest, beat North Carolina 45-32. Irish QB Drew Pyne had his best game of the year by throwing three touchdowns in the win. BYU has a slightly better defense, so it will be seen if he can put up those numbers this week. This game could be close, so I’m taking the points.
Florida State at NC State (-3) – My pick is Florida State Seminoles
Florida State is 4-1 outright and 3-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-21 home loss against Wake Forest. FSU QB Jordan Travis had a solid game, but just too many drives ending too early. Failed third downs really killed them. NC State is 4-1 outright and 2-3 against the spread this year. They are coming off a 30-20 road loss to Clemson, their second-straight loss against the spread. I liked NC State going into this season, but they have not been a bet-friendly team this year. I think Jordan Travis will push the Seminoles into a cover and a possible an outright win.
Purdue at Maryland (-3.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is 3-2 outright and 2-3 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-10 road win over Minnesota. It was an impressive win on paper, but if you watched that game, it was a sloppy game all around from both teams. Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell didn’t look like he was anywhere near 100%. Maryland is 4-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. I liked the Terrapins this preseason and thought they were underrated going into the year. Their passing offense is difficult to cover, a lot like Purdue’s offense. The Terrapins may win this game outright, but if O’Connell is healthy, they will keep it close…so I’m taking the points.
Michigan at Indiana (+22) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is 5-0 outright and 3-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-14 road win over Iowa. It was a predictable outcome as Iowa’s offense has been rough. It was really the battle of the best defenses in the Big Ten. Michigan just gave the ball to RB Blake Corum and never looked back. Indiana is 3-2 outright and 1-4 against the spread. They are coming off a 35-21 road loss to Nebraska. The Hoosiers don’t have the talent to keep up against the best in the conference, so they are in line for a long Saturday. I’m taking Michigan to cover in Bloomington.
Duke at Georgia Tech (+3.5) – My pick is Duke Blue Devils
Duke is 4-1 outright and 3-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 38-17 home win over Virginia. It was a nice rebound after a close loss to Kansas the previous week. I was impressed by how they limited Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong, who only had 225 combined yards. Georgia Tech is 2-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 26-21 road win over Pitt. It was a surprising outcome given Georgia Tech fired their head coach and athletic director last week. I was never a fan of Georgia Tech trying to run a traditional offense before they had the personnel. I have a feeling the Yellow Jackets may not be able to replicate that output again this year. I’m taking Duke to cover on the road.
Ball State at Central Michigan (-7.5) – My pick is Ball State Cardinals
This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game. Ball State is 2-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 44-38 overtime home win against Northern Illinois. Ball State QB John Paddock had put together solid outing in back-to-back games. I didn’t have much of an opinion of him going into the season, but he’s better than I expected. Central Michigan is 1-4 outright and 2-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 38-17 road loss to Toledo. The Chippewas pass defense hasn’t been good this year and think Ball State can do enough to keep it within the spread, so I’m taking the points.
QUICK HITS
Georgia Southern at Georgia State (-2.5) – My pick is Georgia Southern
Houston at Memphis (-3) – My pick is Memphis
Louisville at Virginia (+2.5) – My pick is Louisville
Buffalo at Bowling Green (+2.5) – My pick is Bowling Green
Wisconsin at Northwestern (+9.5) – My pick is Wisconsin
East Carolina at Tulane (-3.5) – My pick is East Carolina
Middle Tennessee at UAB (-9.5) – My pick is Middle Tennessee
Kent State at Miami (OH) (+5.5) – My pick is Kent State
Fresno State at Boise State (-7.5) – My pick is Boise State
Iowa at Illinois (-3.5) – My pick is Iowa
BONUS PICKS!
Liberty at UMass (+24.5) – My pick is Liberty
Washington State at USC (-13) – My pick is Washington State
UTEP at Louisiana Tech (-2.5) – My pick is UTEP
James Madison at Arkansas State (+11.5) – My pick is James Madison
Southern Miss at Troy (-6.5) – My pick is Troy
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 69-53-3
Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!
About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.