I went 8-6-2 against the spread last week.

I was glad to see a winning record again after two bland weeks. A couple teams that I had ranking high, but fell on their faces in the first couple games, are finally playing up to their talent level. I expect the Raiders and Bengals will have some tempting point spreads the next couple weeks.

We have a couple games with big question marks at quarterback. The Patriots look to be starting rookie QB Bailey Zappe and the Cowboys are currently unsure if QB Dak Prescott will be healthy enough to suit this week.

How will the Bengals fare against the Baltimore Ravens?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-3) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Colts are 1-2-1 outright and 1-3- ATS). They are coming off a 24-17 home loss to the Titans. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor injured his ankle in the loss and it’s currently unknown if he will be healthy enough to play. The Broncos are 2-2 outright and 1-3 against the spread on the year. They are coming off a 32-23 road loss to the Raiders. The Broncos scored the most points of the year in the loss, which was a low bar to eclipse. Their defense has been keeping them in games, but the Raiders were able to run the ball with ease. If the Colts don’t have Taylor, or even a diminished version, their offense will struggle. Colts QB Matt Ryan hasn’t shown that he’s able to do much more than Carson Wentz did last season. The Broncos secondary is very good and could be the key to this game. I’m taking the Broncos to cover at home.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers

This game is taking place in London, England. The Giants are 3-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 20-12 home win over the Bears. They are very short-handed at wide receiver, but they didn’t need to pass the ball much against Chicago. That will become a larger issue against better teams. The Packers are 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-24 overtime win over the New England Patriots. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers had a solid game, but it was their running game that won the game. They rushed for 199 yards on 35 carries against the Patriots. The Packers secondary has some studs and if the Giants need to pass in this game, it could be ugly. I’m taking the Packers to cover in London.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Chargers are 2-2 outright and 3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-24 road win over the Texans. They got out to a hot start in the first-half, but nearly allowed the Texans to make a comeback. The Chargers are dealing with injuries to key players. The injuries to LT Rayshawn Slater and LB Joey Bosa are potentially season-collapsing. Also, QB Justin Herbert’s rib cartilage will be an issue for a few more weeks. The Browns are 2-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Falcons. They ran the ball for 177 yards in the defeat. As long as they can rack up that amount of yards, they will be in just about every game. Cleveland has been a solid home team so far and I think they will be in another close contest, so give me the points.

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-3) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Lions are 1-3 outright and 3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 48-45 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks. This is an ongoing theme for the season, as their offense racks up a lot of points, they are giving up just as many on defense. They made Seahawks QB Geno Smith look like an above-average starting quarterback. Also, Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny roasted them on the ground by gaining 151 yards on only 17 carries. The Patriots are 1-3 outright and 1-2-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-24 overtime road loss to the Packers. They lost backup QB Brian Hoyer to a head injury in the game, so rookie QB Bailey Zappe finished the game. He’s not a bad prospect at quarterback. He was a lights-out player at Western Kentucky last year. He has the all-time NCAA record for yards and touchdowns in a season. He was the sole reason why I bet on Western Kentucky often last year. I’m taking a chance and I’m going with the Patriots to cover.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons are 2-2 outright and 4-0 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Browns. They will lose RB Cordarrelle Patterson for a few games due to injury. He was a key player for the offense and may struggle at times. They need to gain 150+ yards a game for their offense to click. The Bucs are 2-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this year. They are coming off a 41-31 home loss to the Chiefs. They had to abandon the run early due to them being down 21-3 early in the second quarter. Buccaneers QB Tom Brady was great in the comeback attempt, but the deficit was just too large. The Chiefs ran the ball well against the Bucs, but it was more about the flow of the game. The Chiefs were trying to drain the clock. I think their defense will bounce-back this week and cause issues for the Falcons running game. I’m sure people will be hitting the Falcons hard since they have been perfect on the year against the spread, but losing Patterson is bigger than people realize. I’m taking the Bucs to cover at home.

Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-6) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks at 2-2 outright and has the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 48-45 road win over the Lions. It was the first time the Seahawks offense played great this year, but it may just be because the Lions defense has a lot of holes. I did like what I saw from Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny. He’s often hurt, but he’s had some great moments in-between IR stints. The Saints are 1-3 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-25 loss to the Vikings in London. It was the first watchable London game in a long time. They are usually either blowouts or extremely sloppy. The Saints started QB Andy Dalton in that game due to QB Jameis Winston’s back injury. It’s unknown if Winston will be healthy enough to suit up this week. I don’t love either of these teams, but I doubt the Saints can cover this big of a spread, so I’m taking the points. 

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans are 0-3-1 outright and 2-1-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 34-24 home loss to the Chargers. They were down 27-7 at the halftime, but did make the final score a tad more respectable. They may have found a gem in RB Dameon Pierce. He gained 131 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown. He received all the carries for the Texans. The Jaguars are 2-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 29-21 road loss to the Eagles. The Jaguars got out to a quick 14-0 lead in the first quarter, but after a couple mistakes, they were down 20-14 at the half. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence didn’t play up the the level of his previous three games. He tried to spam the ball to WR Christian Kirk a little too often with minimal success (he caught just two of his nine targets). This game could be close to the spread, but I think the Jaguars defense could be the key to a cover. I’m taking the Jaguars to cover at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 1-3 outright and 1-2-1 against the spread this year. They are coming off a 24-20 home loss to the Jets. They benched QB Mitchell Trubisky in the game and rookie QB Kenny Pickett got some experience. He did throw three interceptions in relief, but one of those was from a end-of-game Hail Mary attempt. The move to Pickett did not make the Steelers any worse and many think it was an immediate huge improvement. The Bills are 3-1 outright and 2-1-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-20 road win over the Ravens. Ever since the Bills secondary suffered injuries to safety Micah Hyde, they’ve allowed some above-average games to ‘okay’ passing quarterbacks. The Bills still have a fantastic front-seven and will pressure Pickett often this week. I think Pickett will make a few plays that will make opposing defenses to respect his arm. The Bills will most likely win this game, but I have to take the points. 

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3.5) – My pick is New York Jets

The Dolphins are 3-1 outright and the same against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-15 road loss to the Bengals. Dolphins quarterback took a scary hit in the game and will most likely miss a couple games. He suffered probable brain injuries in back-to-back weeks. The Dolphins will start QB Teddy Bridgewater, who is one of the most capable backups in the league. Their current offense is pass-heavy with WR Tyreek Hill getting double-digit targets every game. The Jets are 2-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-20 win over the Steelers. It was the first start for Jets QB Zach Wilson, who suffered a knee injury this preseason. He wasn’t remarkable in the win, but the offense did enough to get the outright win. The Jets are starting to play with a little swagger right now. They have a couple talented, young running backs and some real weapons at wide receiver. I think this game will be close, so I’m taking the points.

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (+2.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans are 2-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-17 road win against the Colts. Titans QB Ryan Tannehill was in full ‘game manager’ role with their offense running through RB Derrick Henry. If teams can get Tannehill to pass more, that’s usually the Titans downfall. The Commanders are 1-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 25-10 road loss to the Cowboys. The Commanders will need to lean on their backfield to win games this year. Commanders QB Carson Wentz can’t put together good performances in back-to-back games. He will lose his favorite target WR Jahan Dotson for a couple games due to injuries, but it looks like rookie RB Brian Robinson Jr. (shooting victim) will play this week. The Titans defense is underrated and they could force Wentz into a few bad plays. I’m taking the Titans to cover on the road.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Bears are 2-2 outright and1-2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 20-12 road loss to the Giants. They just couldn’t finish drives and Bears QB Justin Fields wasn’t a factor through the air. He will need to be more accurate on the few passes he attempts per game. The Bears do have solid running game, which will keep them in a lot of games this year. The Vikings are 3-1 outright and 1-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 28-25 win over the Saints in London. The Vikings also struggled on third down and they leaned on kicker Greg Joseph, who kicked five field goals in the win. The Vikings passing game should bounce-back this week as the Bears lack the talent to line up against some of the studs Minnesota has at receiver. I’m taking the Vikings to cover at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+6) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are 2-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-9 home win over the Rams. They forced two turnovers from Rams QB Matthew Stafford and Los Angeles couldn’t get anything done on the ground. Niners WR Deebo Samuel had a more of a typical WR1 day with 115 yards and a touchdown. He isn’t getting the backfield work at the moment thanks to RB Jeff Wilson Jr. staying healthy at the moment. The Panthers are 1-3 outright and against the spread this season. They are coming off a 26-16 home loss to the Cardinals. The Panthers were forced into being one-dimensional and QB Baker Mayfield can’t be relied upon to win games without some unpredictability on offense. He was getting the ball to RB Christian McCaffrey on short throws, but the offense needs more big plays. I don’t see the Panthers pulling that off against the Niners. I’m taking San Francisco to cover on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Cowboys are 3-1 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 25-10 home win over the Commanders. Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush has turned into a dependable quarterback. I would say that he would probably be a net-positive as a starting quarterback on a dozen teams right now. It’s possible that QB Dak Prescott (finger) could play this week, but owner Jerry Jones says he currently doesn’t have the best grip on the ball. The Rams are 2-2 outright and 1-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 24-9 road loss to the Niners. Their offense doesn’t have the same explosiveness as it had last year. I honestly think they are dealing with a confidence issue. They were smoked in their opener and QB Matthew Stafford isn’t making the throws at the moment. I think the Rams defense will shine in this game as the Cowboys running game is struggling. They could force Rush or Prescott into more of a one-dimensional offense. I’m taking the Rams to cover at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 4-0 outright and 3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 29-21 home win over the Jaguars. They were hit in the mouth in the first quarter, but outscored the Jaguars 29-7 in the final three quarters. Eagles QB Miles Sanders went off for 134 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the win. The addition of WR A.J. Brown has given this offense a home run ball they missed last year. The Cardinals are 2-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this year. They are coming off a 26-16 road loss to the Panthers. The Cardinals were able to run the ball, just due to the sheer amount of carries. They only gained 132 on a whopping 37 carries. They need a better average than that in games against better teams. If the Eagles can force that kind of YPC number, they should cover this one, which is why I’m taking them this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are 2-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-15 home win against the Dolphins. They looked to be on the ropes until they knocked QB Tua Tagovailoa out of the game with a head injury. They finished with a 13-0 run in the fourth quarter. It appears that Bengals QB Joe Burrow fixed some early season turnover issues. This was his third-straight game without throwing an interception. The Ravens are 2-2 outright and 3-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-20 home loss to the Bills. The Ravens had a 20-10 lead at halftime, but failed to score in the second-half. They got RB J.K. Dobbins back from injury, but he is clearly still working himself into playing shape. He only gained 41 yards on 13 carries, but did find the endzone twice (one rushing and one receiving). I expect more from him in the coming weeks. I think this will be another tight contest and I like Joey B in close games, so I’m taking the points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are 1-3 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 32-23 home win over the Broncos. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs had his best game of the year by rushing for 144 yards and two scores. A lot was expected of the Raiders going into this season and they tripped at the starting gate. I still think they can turn the season around and get a playoff spot. The Chiefs are 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 41-31 road win over the Buccaneers. It was an impressive win since the Bucs rarely allow teams to score that many points against them. The Bucs didn’t even try to run the ball against them and put the game solely on QB Tom Brady’s shoulders, but Tampa Bay’s defense let him down. I enjoyed how the Chiefs were able to run the ball and win the time of possession game in the second-half. I would most likely take the Chiefs if the spread was a point less, but I think the Raiders will keep it within a touchdown, so I’m taking the points.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 30-31-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob