Last week, I went 13-11-1 against the spread during Week 4 of the college football season.

We broke the curse last week. Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman did not lose against the spread or get injured, so I don’t feel guilty using a picture of Kansas QB Jalon Daniels this week.

We have a lot of games pitting perfect teams against each other. There are a lot of bloated records due to cupcake opponents in September, so we will know the talent level of a lot of teams after this week.

Is Kansas legit or will they crash and burn when they face good Big 12 teams?

We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 5 of the 2022-23 NCAA Football season (October 1st, 2022).

Washington at UCLA (+2.5) – My pick is Washington Huskies

Washington is undefeated on the year and are 4-0 against the spread. I thought Indiana-transfer QB Michael Penix Jr. was damaged goods, but he has turned his collegiate career around. He had thrown 1,388 yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. Due to his injury history, he has smartened up and doesn’t run the ball as much anymore. He will need his defense to improve soon because they can’t give up 28+ points to the better Pac-12 teams and get the win. UCLA is 4-0 outright and 2-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 45-17 road win over Colorado. The Bruins haven’t faced a lot of talent this year, so it’s hard to judge how well they match up against the Huskies. I know Washington has been good against the run this year, and if UCLA can’t run, QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson will struggle. This game should be close, but I think Washington’s defense is good enough to stop a one-dimensional UCLA team.

Purdue at Minnesota (-12.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue is 2-2 on the year and are 1-3 against the spread. I was high on Purdue heading into the year, but that was dependent on the health of QB Aidan O’Connell. He’s has a great arm and the Boilermakers offense can be solely built around him. He missed last week’s game due to an undisclosed injury and sixth-year backup QB Austin Burton lead them to a 28-26 win over Florida Atlantic. O’Connell’s playing status is still up in the air, but he was a game-time decision last week and you’d think an extra week would mean that he is likely to suit up. Minnesota is 4-0 outright and is perfect against the spread as well. Not only has Minnesota’s offense been putting up 34+ points per game, but they’ve only allowed 24 points combined this year. Gophers QB Tanner Morgan is playing like the version in 2019-20. He had a ton of wide receiver talent that season. They’ve been having a lot of success on the ground as well, which I didn’t expect. I’d like this spread if he were closer to a touchdown, but I think O’Connell will play and it will be closer than double-digits. I’m taking the points in this game.

Michigan at Iowa (+10.5) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines

Michigan is 4-0 on the year and 2-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 34-27 home win over Maryland. It was their first game against a competent team this season. It was difficult to gauge the team as they really went out there and scheduled the cupcake-iest of all cupcake teams to start the year. Last week, Michigan RB Blake Corum went off in the win by gaining 243 yards on 30 carries. They could be a tad overrated right now just due to their undefeated record and their blowout wins early this season. Iowa is 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread. The Hawkeyes had the two ugliest games of the season in back-to-back weeks to start the year. Their defense is still very good, so they are able to play awful on offense and squeak out wins against bad teams. I doubt that will worth against the better teams in the Big Ten. I’ve already written a lot of negative things about Iowa QB Spencer Petras and I don’t see his job being safe in the near-future. I have to take Michigan to cover on Saturday.

Oklahoma State at Baylor (-1.5) – My pick is Baylor Bears

Oklahoma State is 3-0 outright and 2-1 against the spread. They are coming off a bye week and have yet to play any of the Top-80 teams in the country. Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders will be a make-or-break part of the offense for the Cowboys this season. He is a dual-threat talent and will amass a large part of the teams yards in every game. Baylor is 3-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 31-24 road win over Iowa State. As long as Baylor QB Blake Shapen takes care of the ball, the Bears will be in just about every game this season. This game will be a huge wake-up call for Oklahoma State. I don’t think they are a top Big 12 team and Baylor should handle business and cover at home.

Wake Forest at Florida State (-7) – My pick is Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Wake Forest is 3-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 51-45 overtime home loss to Clemson. The Demon Deacons overachieved in this one. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman threw six touchdowns with no interceptions. He was very good in stretches last season and it looks like he may have improved. He may have leapfrogged Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke on 2023 NFL Draft boards. Florida State is 4-0 outright and 3-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 44-14 home win over Boston College. It’s clear that this year’s FSU squad is much better than last year’s team. FSU QB Jordan Travis surprised me last season and I think he has improved as well. Florida State hasn’t had an easy schedule so far and they are one of the most battle-tested teams in the country. I think the Seminoles could get the outright win, but I think Wake Forest makes them work for it and keeps it close, so I’m taking the points.

NC State at Clemson (-6.5) – My pick is NC State Wolfpack

North Carolina State is 4-0 outright and 2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 41-10 home win over UConn. It ended a string of opening games against rather weak opponents. I liked the Wolfpack coming into the season, but I can’t say that I’ve been impressed given the low-level of opponents. Clemson is 4-0 outright and 1-3 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 51-45 overtime road win over Wake Forest. I’ve been harsh on Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei this year, but he FINALLY played like the quarterback who balled out in relief of Trevor Lawrence two seasons ago. He threw for 371 yards with five touchdowns. I worry that he won’t be able to repeat this kind of performance against NC State. He’s been very careful with the ball this year and it would surprise me if he gets through this game without a pick or two. Clemson is often overrated and he’s difficult for an average Clemson team to cover many games. I am taking the points in this game.

Texas A&M at Mississippi State (-3.5) – My pick is Mississippi State Bulldogs

Texas A&M is 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-21 home win over Arkansas. They are still dealing with some growing pains after they switched quarterbacks to Max Johnson. They offense just isn’t very good at the moment and their defense is bailing them out. I’m not sure that will be enough against better SEC teams. Mississippi State is 3-1 outright and 2-1-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 45-14 home win over Bowling Green. I’ve been a superfan of A&M QB Will Rogers and he’s been as advertised this season. He was below-average in his 31-16 loss to LSU, but bounced back nicely with a six-touchdown performance against BGSU. Rogers will need his defense to play above their talent level this week. If Mississippi State can get some early scores, I think they can pull away if A&M has to pass if they fall behind. I’m taking Mississippi State to cover at home.

Iowa State at Kansas (+3) – My pick is Kansas Jayhawks

Iowa State is 3-1 outright and 2-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 31-24 home loss to Baylor. Their running game collapsed against Baylor’s front-seven and QB Hunter Dekkers turned the ball over too many times. The Cyclones are still a very solid team, but they aren’t as flashy as some of the other Big 12 teams and will most likely be a low-level bowl team this year. Kansas is 4-0 outright and is perfect against the spread as well. They are coming off a 35-27 home win over Duke. The play of Kansas QB Jalon Daniels has many adding him to their early Heisman lists. I feel it’s a bit early to add him since they have a rough late-season schedule against the best teams in the Big 12. They will be overrated soon, but I like this week’s betting line. I am taking the points and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kansas gets an outright win.

Oregon State at Utah (-10.5) – My pick is Utah Utes

Oregon State is 3-1 outright and 4-0 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 17-14 home loss to USC. They defense really did their job, but Oregon State QB Chance Nolan threw four interceptions. It was a number far too big to contend win against USC. I worry about his penchant for interceptions against some of the better Pac-12 teams. Utah is 3-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 34-13 road win over Arizona State. They had the game under control by halftime. Utah QB Cameron Rising didn’t have to do much, so he didn’t fill the boxscore like he did in previous games. Utah has one of the best defenses in the conference and Oregon State will have a tough time moving the ball. I think Utah will cover at home.

Northern Illinois at Ball State (+3.5) – My pick is Northern Illinois Huskies

This is the section where we pick a smaller conference game. Northern Illinois is 1-3 outright and 2-2 against the spread. They are coming off a 31-23 road loss to Kentucky. It was a surprising outcome due to them being 27.5 underdogs. I was surprised that Northern Illinois didn’t turn the ball over more against Kentucky’s solid defense. Their tough early-season schedule could pay dividends for the Huskies later in the year. Ball State is 1-3 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 34-23 road loss to Georgia Southern. They have been able to move the ball better, but their defense has a lot of holes. They are prone to big plays and that’s always scary when it comes to betting. I think Northern Illinois is better than their record and will cover in Muncie, Indiana.

QUICK HITS

Alabama at Arkansas (+17.5) – My pick is Arkansas

Indiana at Nebraska (-6) – My pick is Indiana

Liberty at Old Dominion (+3.5) – My pick is Liberty

Illinois at Wisconsin (-7) – My pick is Illinois

Louisville at Boston College (+15.5) – My pick is Louisville

Texas Tech at Kansas State (-7.5) – My pick is Kansas State

Navy at Air Force (-14) – My pick is Air Force

Kentucky at Ole Miss (-7) – My pick is Kentucky

East Carolina at South Florida (+8) – My pick is South Florida

Miami (OH) at Buffalo (-1.5) – My pick is Buffalo

BONUS PICKS!

Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina (-10.5) – My pick is Coastal Carolina

Florida Atlantic at North Texas (+3.5) – My pick is North Texas

California at Washington State (-3.5) – My pick is Washington State

UAB at Rice (+10) – My pick is Rice

San Jose State at Wyoming (+3) – My pick is Wyoming

Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:

2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 187-141-8
2020: 170-160-5
2021: 167-151-8
2022: 55-42-3

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.