I went 7-9 against the spread last week.

We will see the first London game of the year, which are usually horribly-played games. I think the underdogs have won most of those games and expect a low-scoring affair.

The Raiders are 0-3 outright and against the spread right now. I thought they could be a potential playoff team at the start of the year. There is still a lot of football left to play. Can the Raiders turn this season around with a cover this week?

How will the Jaguars fare against the Philadelphia Eagles?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are 3-0 outright (3-0 ATS) and they can thank QB Tua Tagovailoa for that. He’s been way better than people thought he’d be this season. They haven’t been playing cupcakes either, all three of their wins came against potential playoff contenders. Tua was banged up last game, but did pass a concussion test. He is suffering from back and ankle ailments that could affect his ability to start, but it looks like he will be ready for Thursday. The Bengals are 1-2 outright and the same against the spread. They picked up their first win of the season last week by beating the Jets 27-12. Bengals QB Joe Burrow had his best game of the year and didn’t turn the ball over, which was a huge improvement alone. They need to get their running game going at some point or they will be in trouble long-term. I give the Dolphins a slight edge in this game due to their dynamic receivers. I don’t know if the Bengals have the depth to hang, so I’m taking the points.

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints (+3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

This game is taking place in London, England. The Vikings are 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread. They failed to cover in their close 28-24 win over the Lions. It was surprising to see the Lions be able to blanket WR Justin Jefferson. I wouldn’t have expected that going into the game. I think that’s more about Lions CB Jeff Okudah than Jefferson’s overall play. Also, RB Alexander Mattison played well after Dalvin Cook went down with injury. The Saints are 1-2 outright and 0-3 against the spread. They are starting to have real problems with QB Jameis Winston. Someone of his issues could be due to his wide receivers falling like flies, but Winston will just always have trouble with turnovers. Saints running back Alvin Kamara may need to be the focus of the offense. Since this game is in England, I plan on the offenses to play awful. It’s just always been the case since they’ve been playing games over there more. I’m taking the Vikings to cover in London.

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Browns are 2-1 outright and the same against the spread. They are coming off a 29-17 home win over the Steelers. Their defense was able to stymy Steelers running game and it’s now clear that QB Mitchell Trubisky can’t win a game when if he doesn’t have any help on the ground. The Steelers honestly need a quarterback like Browns QB Jacoby Brissett. He’s not a quarterback that will lose you games, but he can make some throws that Trubisky can’t do at this point. The Falcons are 1-2 outright and 3-0 against the spread. They are coming off a 27-23 road win over the Seahawks. The Falcons were able to hit rookie WR Drake London late in the final minute to pull ahead. I’ve loved the Falcons this year and as long as they keep giving RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson the ball in creative ways, they will be in just about every game. Also, they may have a true stud in WR Drake London. This game should be close and I’m going to go with the home team here, so I’ll be taking the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are 2-1 outright and the same against the spread. They are coming off a surprising 38-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns with no interceptions and he got over 150 yards on the ground from his backfield. They were able to get a near-2-to-1 time of possession thanks to their short passing game and on the ground. The Eagles are 3-0 outright and 2-1 against the spread this season. They were dominant in their 24-8 road win over Washington. The Commanders couldn’t move the ball well against the Eagles. Commanders QB Carson Wentz was inaccurate and averaged less than five yards per passing attempt. On the flipside, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is turning into a possible MVP candidate so far. I think the Jaguars defense will be able to hang with them on defense. This could be the first game of the year where Hurts looks a bit mortal. I’m taking the points in this one.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (+5.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are 1-2 outright and 2-1 against the spread this season. They were smoked by the Jaguars 38-10, in a game that was never really close. Chargers QB Justin Herbert is dealing with a substantial rib cartilage injury and his accuracy wasn’t great in that game. He was also without star WR Keenan Allen in the loss. I expect the Chargers will try to take a little pressure off Herbert going forward and their backfield will get more work in both facets of the game. The Texans are 0-2-1 outright and 2-0-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Bears. I think they think will be able to score more than about 20 points a game this season. They don’t have the playmakers to do that this year. I do like RB Dameon Pierce and think he could develop into a very good running back. If QB Davis Mills can avoid turnovers, they could keep this close, but I still think a Herbert at 70% health should be able to cover this game.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

The Titans are 1-2 outright and has the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 24-22 home win over the Raiders. They had a big lead at halftime and nearly let the Raiders come all the way back. It was still a nice rebound after getting blown-out by the Bills the previous week. The Colts are 1-1-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread on the season. They are coming off an 20-17 upset win over the Chiefs. Kansas City’s kicker was having a rough outing (he was released soon after), and was the reason the Colts were able to stay within striking distance at the end. Colts QB Matt Ryan had his best game in uniform and if he can refrain from turnovers, the Colts should be in just about every game in the fourth quarter. Also, getting WR Michael Pittman Jr. back on the field was huge. I’d like to know about Colts LB Shaquille Leonard’s playing status. I will feel great about this pick if I knew he was able to play. I still think it will be a close cover without him, so I’m taking the Colts.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

The Commanders are 1-2 outright and the same against the spread. They were unimpressive in their 24-8 home loss to the Eagles. I thought QB Carson Wentz was a rebound candidate this year, but he’s doing a lot of the same things that made him fail in Indianapolis. He’s not taking care of the ball and his inaccuracy is just as bad. Also, I’m shocked that their defense has been so poor. They had a lot of talented playmakers on that side of the ball and they’ve been out-matched against teams like Jacksonville and Detroit. The Cowboys are 2-1 outright and the same against the spread this season. They are coming off a 23-16 road win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. Cowboys QB Cooper Rush was smart with the ball and his backfield of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott stepped up big in this game. I love the gameplan and think this offensive scheme will work while starting QB Dak Prescott is out until sometime in November. The Cowboys secondary should cause problems for Wentz and wouldn’t be surprised if he throws 2+ picks on Sunday. I like the Cowboys again this week and they should cover at home.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Bears are 2-1 outright and 1-1-1 against the spread this year. They are coming off a 23-20 home win over the Houston Texans. Bears QB Justin Fields didn’t have a great game throwing the ball, but their running game was on fire. Bears RB Khalil Herbert gained 157 yards with his 20 carries and the rest of the ball carriers added another 124 yards on the ground. This will probably be the best-case formula for Chicago on offense. They have a lot of confidence in their backfield right now. The Giants are 2-1 outright and the same against the spread. They are coming off a 23-16 home loss to the Cowboys. Giants QB Daniel Jones had a better game that I expected. He was open to tuck the ball and take off when the pass wasn’t there. He needs to do that more this season, especially with WR Sterling Shepard out for the year with an ACL injury. I don’t expect a high-scoring game and the Bears should stay with the Giants. The Bears may not win outright, but they should keep it tight, so I’m taking the points.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Seahawks are 1-2 outright and the same against the spread this season. They are coming off a 27-23 home loss to the Falcons. They didn’t have a bad game, and honestly, it was a nice rebound from their 27-7 loss the Niners a week before. Seahawks QB Geno Smith was smart with the ball, and even though a lot of his passes were short, he was moving the ball. The Lions are 1-2 outright and 3-0 against the spread. They are coming off a 28-24 road win over the Vikings. The Lions defense stepped up and limited the Vikings passing attack. Also, the Lions offensive line has impressed me a lot this year. The Seahawks haven’t played well on the road this season and that should continue this week. The Lions should be able to cover at home.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) – My pick is New York Jets

The Jets are 1-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 27-12 home loss to the Bengals. Jets QB Joe Flacco couldn’t repeat his previous week’s performance against Browns. He threw two picks and barely completed 50% of his passes. They got great news this week as QB Zach Wilson (knee) was medically-cleared to play. Wilson had his own turnover issues last year, so we will see if he has improved those habits. The Steelers are 1-2 outright and 1-1-1 against the spread. They are coming off a 29-17 road loss to the Browns. Their offense really failed to consistently move the ball and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers replace QB Mitchell Trubisky after a couple more defeats. I’m taking the points in this game.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (+3) – My pick is Buffalo Bills

The Bills are 2-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 21-19 road loss to the Dolphins. It was the first game of the year that made them look mortal. They smoked the Rams and Titans to open the year, but once again, the Bills run game regressed as QB Josh Allen was the leading rusher. They were able to use a short-passing game with RB Devin Singletary to work as a quasi-running game with success. They suffered a few too many injuries in their secondary and will give up a couple more big plays per game. The Ravens are 2-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 37-26 road win over the Patriots. Their turned the game in their direction in the third quarter. Their defense had a lot to do with that as they received solid field position in the second-half. I think the Bills will rebound from last week’s loss and cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are 1-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 20-12 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Too many drives ended with field goals and their entire offense was WR Marquise Brown. They need to get more people involved so they can convert third-down opportunities. The Panthers are 1-2 outright and have the same record against the spread this season. They are coming off a 22-12 home win over the Saints. Their offense was ugly, but they got the win. Panthers QB Baker Mayfield isn’t accurate and went for the home-run ball a bit too often. I did like the increase in RB Christian McCaffrey’s usage rate, who broke the 100-yard mark in the win. The Cardinals are the much better team and I think they should get the win on the road.

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-10) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Patriots are 1-2 outright and 0-2-1 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 37-26 home loss to the Ravens. Patriots QB Mac Jones injured his leg in the final play of the game and it will keep him out for a few games. Veteran backup QB Brian Hoyer will be call upon in relief. He’s had success in the past and he’s one of the better and most-experienced backups in the NFL. I think we will see a lot of RB Rhamondre Stevenson while Jones is out. The Packers are 2-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. They are coming off a 14-13 road win over the Buccaneers. Neither team got much from their backfields, but the Packers did enough to barely get the win. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was very accurate and looks to have chosen WR Romeo Doubs as his new favorite target. I think the Packers will be able to move the ball better this week, but I don’t see them covering a double-digit point spread against the Patriots.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) – My pick is Las Vegas Raiders

The Broncos are 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread this season. The Broncos offense have been ugly this season and they haven’t scored more than 16 points in a game so far. They are coming off a 11-10 home win over the 49ers. It’s clear that Broncos QB Russell Wilson is still getting his feet wet on his new team. I have been impressed with their defense so far, but they haven’t faced a good offense yet. The Raiders are 0-3 outright and have yet to cover a game this season. They are coming off a 24-22 road loss to the Titans. They started the game off slow and just didn’t have enough time to get the win. I still think they are better than Denver and they are a bit undervalued after failing to cover in three-straight games. I’m taking the Raiders to cover at home.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-17 road loss to the Colts. Chiefs kicker Matt Ammendola was the reason for the loss and they released him this week. It’s hard to cover games when your kicker misses extra points and kicked 40+ and longer. The Bucs are 2-1 outright and have the same record against the spread. Tampa Bay’s offense is banged up and QB Tom Brady is missing two of his best receivers. His numbers haven’t been great since losing wide receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones. Brady does get back WR Mike Evans (suspension), which should help. This will likely be a close game, but I have to go with the Chiefs to cover on Sunday Night Football.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread this season. They are coming off a 20-12 road win over the Cardinals. It was nice to see RB Cam Akers being able to consistently move the ball and QB Matthew Stafford had his first turnover-free game of the year. Some may say that they are dealing with the Super Bowl hangover, which I agree with to some degree. They know that they need to play their best in January, but they need to play much better right now to even get to January opportunities. The Niners are 1-2 outright and have the same record against the spread. They suffered an ugly 11-10 road loss to the Broncos. The Broncos defense is underrated and are the reason why Denver has a 2-1 record right now. They need QB Jimmy Garoppolo to air the ball out a little more. I’m seeing too much ‘game manager’ from him, and he’s much better than that. I don’t see the Niners being able to beat good teams with Jimmy G playing with handcuffs. The Rams will cover this game.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 141-118-13
2019: 159-119-7
2020: 152-121-8
2021: 155-129-6
2022: 22-25-1

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob